The impact of ageing on public expenditure:projections for the EU25 Member States on pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (2004-2050) - Annex to the full report - Hoofdinhoud
Contents
| Documentdatum | 13-02-2006 |
|---|---|
| Publicatiedatum | 12-08-2009 |
| Kenmerk | 6119/06 ADD 2 |
| Van | General Secretariat of the Council |
| Aan | Delegations |
| Externe link | originele PDF |
| Originele document in PDF |  |
COUNCIL OF Brussels, 13 February 2006
THE EUROPEAN UNION
6119/06 ADD 2
ECOFIN 36 SOC 57 SAN 25 EDUC 24
ADDENDUM TO THE NOTE
from: General Secretariat of the Council
to: Delegations
Subject: The impact of ageing on public expenditure: projections for the EU25 Member States on pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (2004-2050)
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-Annex to the full report
Delegations will find attached the annex to the full report on the impact of ageing on public
expenditure, prepared by the Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission, for the
14 February meeting of the Council (ECOFIN).
________________________
Annex
Special Report n° 1/2006-Annex
EUROPEAN
ECONOMY
E UROPEAN C OMMISSION
D IRECTORATE -G ENERAL F OR E CONOMIC AND F INANCIAL AFFAIRS
ANNEX
The impact of ageing on public expenditure: projections for the
EU25 Member States on pensions, health care, long-term care,
education and unemployment transfers
(2004-2050)
Report prepared by the
Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission (DG ECFIN)
ANNEXES
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1.SUMMARY OF THE BASELINE PROJECTIONS RESULTS FOR ALL AGE-RELATED PUBLIC SPENDING ITEMS 6
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2.CHARACTERISTICS OF PENSION SYSTEMS IN THE EU MEMBER STATES 12
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3.DETAILED RESULTS OF THE PENSION PROJECTIONS – SENSITIVITY TESTS 31
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4.METHODOLOGIES USED TO PROJECT HEALTH CARE SPENDING 45
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5.DATA INPUTS TO THE HEALTH CARE PROJECTIONS 58
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6.ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS FOR PUBLIC SPENDING ON HEALTH CARE 72
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7.DETAILED RESULTS OF THE PROJECTIONS ON HEALTH CARE 80
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8.DATA USED TO MAKE THE PROJECTIONS ON LONG-TERM CARE 86
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9.ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS FOR PUBLIC SPENDING ON LONG-TERM CARE 89
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10.METHODOLOGY FOR CORE PROJECTIONS OF UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT
EXPENDITURE 94
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11.THE APPROACH USED AT EU LEVEL TO ASSESS THE SUSTAINABILITY OF
PUBLIC FINANCES 96
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12.DEFINITIONS AND PROPERTIES OF DEBT PROJECTIONS AND THE
SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS 106
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13.A SENSITIVITY TEST FOR ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC
FINANCES: THE COST OF DELAY IN ACHIEVING BUDGETARY CONSOLIDATION 111
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14.GUIDELINES FOR TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ASSETS OF PUBLIC PENSION
FUNDS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES 112
ANNEX - LIST OF AWG MEMBERS AND CONTRIBUTORS 119
STATISTICAL ANNEX: COUNTRY TABLES 124 LIST OF TABLES
Table 1-1 Total age-related public spending: pension, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (% of GDP) – baseline scenario........................................... 6
Table 1-2 Gross public pension expenditure (% of GDP) – baseline scenario .......................... 7
Table 1-3 Projections for public spending on health care –AWG reference scenario ............... 8
Table 1-4 Projections for public spending on long-term care –AWG reference scenario.......... 9
Table 1-5 Projections for public spending on education (% of GDP) – baseline scenario ...... 10
Table 1-6 Projections for public spending on unemployment transfers (% of GDP) – baseline scenario............................................................................................................................. 11
Table 2-1 Pension benefit formulation in the social security (public) pension schemes in Member States.................................................................................................................. 12
Table 2-2 Some statistical indicators related to pensions......................................................... 16
Table 2-3 Indexation and taxation regimes of the pension schemes ........................................ 17
Table 2-4 Contribution rates of public pension schemes ......................................................... 19
Table 2-5 Pension expenditure projection models in the Member States ............................... 22
Table 2-6 Main features of recent pension reforms.................................................................. 27
Table 3-1 High life expectancy scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 31
Table 3-2 High life expectancy scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 31
Table 3-3 High life expectancy scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 32
Table 3-4 High life expectancy scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions................................................................................................................. 32
Table 3-5 Higher employment rate scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 33
Table 3-6 Higher employment rate scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 33
Table 3-7 Higher employment rate scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 34
Table 3-8 Higher employment rate scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions ................................................................................................... 34
Table 3-9 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050 .................................................. 35
Table 3-10 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050 ...................................................................... 35
Table 3-11 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050 ...................................................................... 36
Table 3-12 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions.............................................................................. 36
Table 3-13 Higher labour productivity scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 37
Table 3-14 Higher labour productivity scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 37
Table 3-15 Higher labour productivity scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 38
Table 3-16 Higher labour productivity scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions ................................................................................................... 38
Table 3-17 Lower labour productivity scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 39
Table 3-18 Lower labour productivity scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 39
Table 3-19 Lower labour productivity scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050........................................................................................... 40
Table 3-20 Lower labour productivity scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions ................................................................................................... 40
Table 3-21 Higher interest rate scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 41
Table 3-22 Higher interest rate scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 41
Table 3-23 Higher interest rate scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 42
Table 3-24 Higher interest rate scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions................................................................................................................. 42
Table 3-25 Lower interest rate scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 43
Table 3-26 Lower interest rate scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 43
Table 3-27 Lower interest rate scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050.................................................................................................... 44
Table 3-28 Lower interest rate scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions................................................................................................................. 44
Table 5-1 Overview of available age-related expenditure profiles on health care ................... 59
Table 5-2 Projected changes in life expectancy for elderly cohorts - males ............................ 63
Table 5-3 Projected changes in life expectancy for elderly cohorts - females ......................... 64
Table 5-4 Assumptions on the evolution of unit costs – average yearly rate of growth of GDP per capita .......................................................................................................................... 65
Table 5-5 Assumptions on the evolution of unit costs – average yearly rate of growth of GDP per worker......................................................................................................................... 65
Table 5-6 Overview of studies with data on death-related costs for particular EU Member States ................................................................................................................................ 67
Table 5-7 The ratio between cost borne by a person with N remaining years of life and a survivor, by age cohort ..................................................................................................... 69
Table 6-1 Overview of additional scenarios for public spending on health care ..................... 72
Table 6-2 Projection results for high life expectancy scenario (A-I)........................................ 73
Table 6-3 Projection results for improved health scenario (A-II) ............................................ 74 Table 6-4 Projection results for the EU10 cost convergence scenario (A-III) ......................... 75
Table 6-5 Projection results for fast growth scenario (A-IV) – unit costs evolve 1% faster than GDP per capita between 2005 and 2014 .......................................................................... 76
Table 6-6 Available data on the composition of health care spending and on the recent evolution of unit costs ...................................................................................................... 78
Table 6-7 Projection results for scenario A-V, fast cost growth variant (respective components increasing 1 p.p. above GDP per capita between 2005 and 2014) ................................... 79
Table 6-8 Projection results for scenario A-V, extrapolation of past trends variant (respective components following past trends between 2005 and 2014) ........................................... 79
Table 7-1 Pure ageing scenario (I) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP ............ 80
Table 7-2 Constant health scenario (II) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP ..... 80
Table 7-3 Death-related costs scenario (III) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP .......................................................................................................................................... 81
Table 7-4 Scenario capturing income elasticity of demand exceeding unity (IV) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP .............................................................................. 81
Table 7-5 Scenario where unit costs evolve in line with GDP per worker (V) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP .............................................................................. 82
Table 7-6 AWG reference scenario (VI) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP .... 82
Table 7-7 High life expectancy scenario (A-I) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP .................................................................................................................................. 83
Table 7-8 Improved health scenario (A-II) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP 83
Table 7-9 EU10 cost convergence scenario (A-III) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP .................................................................................................................................. 84
Table 7-10 Fast cost growth scenario (unit costs growing 1 p.p. above GDP per capita between 2005 and 2014) (A-IV) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP ........ 84
Table 7-11 Extrapolation of past trends scenario (all components following past trends between 2005 and 2014) (A-V) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP ......... 85
Table 8-1 Detailed description of data received on long-term care ......................................... 87
Table 9-1 Overview of additional scenarios for public spending on long-term care ............... 89
Table 9-2 Projection results for the “high life expectancy scenario (A-I) ................................ 90
Table 9-3 Projection results for the “improved disability” scenario (A-II) ............................. 91
Table 9-4 Projection results for the scenario “increase in formal care” (A-III) .................. 92
Table 9-5 Projection results for the scenario “increase in formal care” (A-IV)..................... 93
Table 11-1 Qualitative factors taken on board in reaching policy recommendations on the sustainability of public finances ..................................................................................... 102
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1.S UMMARY OF THE BASELINE PROJECTIONS RESULTS FOR ALL AGE - RELATED
PUBLIC SPENDING ITEMS
Table 1-1 Total age-related public spending: pension, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (% of GDP) – baseline scenario
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change 2004-
BE 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.5 26.6 28.2 29.9 31.1 31.6 31.8 31.7 6.3 DK 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.9 28.6 29.5 30.8 31.7 32.1 31.9 31.6 4.8 DE 23.7 23.4 22.5 22.2 22.9 23.8 24.7 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.4 2.7
GR * 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.2 1.2
ES 20.1 20.0 19.7 19.6 20.4 21.7 23.4 25.2 27.3 28.7 28.6 8.5 FR 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.6 2.9 IE 15.5 15.2 15.4 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.7 22.1 23.3 7.8 IT 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.9 26.4 27.3 28.1 28.7 28.6 28.0 1.7 LU 19.5 19.5 19.4 20.5 21.6 23.5 25.0 26.6 27.4 28.1 27.8 8.2 NL 20.9 20.5 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.4 24.7 25.7 26.2 26.1 25.8 5.0 AT 25.2 24.9 24.2 24.0 24.2 25.2 26.0 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 0.2 PT 23.8 24.2 24.2 24.9 26.3 27.1 28.0 29.5 31.1 32.6 33.6 9.7 FI 25.4 25.2 25.6 26.5 27.7 28.8 30.1 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 5.2 SE 29.6 29.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.5 30.9 31.7 31.9 31.7 31.8 2.2 UK 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.8 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.6 4.0 CY 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.6 18.8 20.5 21.9 23.4 25.0 28.2 11.8 CZ 19.3 19.3 18.8 18.6 19.2 20.0 21.0 22.4 24.1 25.5 26.4 7.2 EE 17.1 17.5 16.5 15.4 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.4 -2.7 HU 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.3 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.7 26.4 27.4 27.7 7.0 LT 16.0 16.0 15.3 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.4 1.4 LV 17.5 16.9 14.6 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.2 -1.3 MT 18.2 18.2 19.1 19.7 20.4 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.2 18.9 18.5 0.3 PL 23.7 23.4 20.2 18.1 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.1 17.0 -6.7 SK 16.2 16.5 15.4 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.1 2.9 SI 24.2 24.2 24.0 24.5 25.5 27.0 28.6 30.2 31.7 33.0 33.8 9.7
EU25 23.4 23.3 22.7 22.7 23.2 24.0 24.9 25.8 26.4 26.7 26.8 3.4 EU15 23.5 23.3 22.9 23.0 23.5 24.4 25.4 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.2 3.7 EU12 24.0 23.9 23.4 23.5 24.1 24.9 25.9 26.9 27.5 27.8 27.8 3.7 EU10 21.1 21.0 19.4 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.4 0.2 EU9 (EU10-Pl) 19.3 19.3 18.8 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.8 23.0 23.9 24.7 5.4
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1)Total expenditure for GR does not include pension expenditure. The Greek authorities have agreed to provide the pension projections in 2006. In the context of the most recent assessment of the sustainability of public finances based on the Greek stability programme, public spending on pensions was projected to increase by 10.3% of GDP between 2004 and 2050.
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2)Total expenditure for: GR, FR, PT, CY, EE, HU does not include long-term care
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3)The projection results for public spending on long-term care for Germany does not reflect current legislation where benefit levels are fixed. A scenario which comes closer to the current setting of legislation projects that public spending would remain constant as a share of GDP over the projection period.
Note: these figures refer to the baseline projections for social security spending on pensions, education and unemployment transfers. For health care and long-term care, the projections refer to “AWG reference scenarios”
Table 1-2 Gross public pension expenditure (% of GDP) – baseline scenario
Country 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change
2004-2050
BE 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 5.1
CZ 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 5.6
DK 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.8 3.3
DE 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 1.7
EE 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 -2.5
GR : : : : : : : : : : : :
ES 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.8 13.4 15.2 16.2 15.7 7.1
FR 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 2.0
IE 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 4.8
IT 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.4 14.7 0.4
CY 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 10.5
LV 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 -1.2
LT 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 1.8
LU 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 17.4 7.4
HU 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.6 16.0 16.9 17.1 6.7
MT 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.0 -0.4
NL 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.7 11.4 11.7 11.4 11.2 3.5
AT 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.2 -1.2
PL 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.0 -5.9
PT 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 20.8 9.7
SI 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3 7.3
SK 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 1.8
FI 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 3.1
SE 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.4 11.2 0.6
UK 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 2.0
EU15 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.0 12.9 2.3
EU10 10.9 10.9 9.8 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.1 0.3 EU12 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.3 14.1 2.6
EU25 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.3 11.9 12.5 12.8 12.8 12.8 2.2
EU9 (EU10-PL) 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.4 11.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 4.8
Table 1-3 Projections for public spending on health care –AWG reference scenario (% of GDP)
Country 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change
(2004-50)
BE 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 1.4 DK 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 1.0
DE 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 1.2 GR 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.8 1.7
ES 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 2.2 FR 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 1.8
IE 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 2.0 IT 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 1.3
LU 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 1.2 NL 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 1.3 AT 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 1.6 PT 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 0.5
FI 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 1.4 SE 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 1.0 UK 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.9 1.9 CY 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 1.1 CZ 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4 2.0 EE 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 1.1 HU 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 1.0
LT 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 0.9 LV 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 1.1 MT 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 1.8 PL 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 1.4
SK 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 1.9 SI 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 1.6
EU25 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.9 1.6 EU15 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.1 1.6
EU12 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.8 1.5 EU10 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 1.3
EU9 (EU10-PL) 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 1.3
Table 1-4 Projections for public spending on long-term care –AWG reference scenario (% of GDP) *
Country 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change
(2004-50)
BE 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.0
DK 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.1
DE 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.0
EL
ES 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.2
FR
IE 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.6
IT 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 0.7
LU 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.6
NL 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.6
AT 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.9
PT
FI 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 1.8
SE 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 1.7
UK 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 0.8
CY
CZ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4
EE
HU
LT 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4
LV 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3
MT 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.2
PL 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
SK 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.6
SI 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.2
EU25 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.6
EU15 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.7
EU12 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.5
EU10 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2
EU9 (EU10-PL) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3
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*The projection results for public spending on long-term care for Germany does not reflect current legislation where benefit levels are fixed. A scenario which comes closer to the current setting of legislation projects that public spending would remain constant as a share of GDP over the projection period.
Table 1-5 Projections for public spending on education (% of GDP) – baseline scenario
Country 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change
2004-2050
BE 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 -0.7 DK 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.5 -0.3
DE 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 -0.9
EL 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 -0.4
ES 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 -0.6
FR 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 -0.5
IE 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 -1.0
IT 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 -0.6 LU 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 -0.9
NL 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 -0.2 AT 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 -1.0
PT 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 -0.4
FI 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 -0.7
SE 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 -0.9
UK 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 -0.6
CY 6.3 6.2 5.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 -2.2 CZ 3.8 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 -0.7
EE 5.0 4.8 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 -1.3 HU 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 -0.7
LT 5.0 4.9 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 -1.6
LV 4.9 4.6 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.5 -1.4
MT 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 -1.2
PL 5.0 4.9 3.9 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 -1.9
SK 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 -1.3
SI 5.3 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 -0.4 EU25 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 -0.6
EU15 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 -0.6
EU12 4.4 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 -0.6
EU10 4.7 4.6 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 -1.3
EU9 (EU10-PL) 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 -0.9
Table 1-6 Projections for public spending on unemployment transfers (% of GDP) – baseline scenario
Country 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change
2004-2050
BE 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 -0.5 DK 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 -0.3
DE 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.4 GR 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1
ES 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.4 FR 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.3
IE 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.2 IT 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1
LU 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 NL 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 -0.2
AT 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1 PT 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.1
FI 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 -0.4 SE 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.2
UK 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 CY 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
CZ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 EE 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
HU 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 LT 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1
LV 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 MT 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -0.2
PL 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.4 SK 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2
SI 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.1 EU25 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.3
EU15 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.2 EU12 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.3
EU10 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 EU9 (EU10-PL) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1
-
2.C HARACTERISTICS OF PENSION SYSTEMS IN THE EU M EMBER S TATES
Table 2-1 Pension benefit formulation in the social security (public) pension schemes in Member States
(PR= private sector (main private sector scheme if different rules for sectoral schemes, PU=public sector where the schemes differ)
MS Type of the Pension base Indexation of Accrual of pensions Max. accrual Number Stat. Other factors taken into account scheme past earnings rate of years retirement
age
DB=defined (reference wage) (50:50=w:p) (gross needed (M=men, (early/deferred retirement; additional
-benefit (thresholds, ceilings) replacement for a full W=women) separate schemes; family conditions
DC=defined rate) pension
contribution
BE PR: DB PR: Average of lifetime wages PR: to prices+ PR: Service years/45 PR: 60% 45 65 M 75% for a married couple with one income;
(up to ceiling), max 45 (women partial (women 44; 45 in 2009) (women 64 W early retirement under condition between 60 44; 45 in 2009) adjustment to 44; 45 in and 65 or through “prepension” welfare 2009) (unemployment benefit + supplement from
the firm)
PU: DB PU: average wages of the last PU: To prices + PU: Service years up to 45/60 PU: 100% of 45 65 Early retirement between 60 and 65; age
five years real wage (service years)/60 bonuses if retiring after the age of 60
increases in the (=75% of (service
corresponding years)/45)
civil servants scales
CZ DB Earnings of 30 years (after To average Flat-rate component + No max 25 63M Age bonuses for later retirement and
1986) earnings earnings-related component: 61W, with reductions for early retirement
1.5%/year 2 children
DK Flat-rate plus Based on years lived in DK Flat-rate 40 lived 65 A separate voluntary early retirement
means-tested in DK scheme (with a small own contribution). supplements Supplemented by fully funded occupational pensions.
DE DB Pension points accrued during Implicitly to Based on pension points No ceiling 65 3.6% reduction per year for early
the whole work career wages (depends on the wage level defined,( in retirement, 6.0% bonus per year for
relative to average wage and general, max 2 deferred retirement.
career length) pension points Additional pension points granted for child
MS Type of the Pension base Indexation of Accrual of pensions Max. accrual Number Stat. Other factors taken into account
scheme past earnings rate of years retirement
age
per year.) raising and care of dependant persons
EE DB Length of career up to 1999, (implicitly to Flat-rate component 63 M Supplemented by a funded tier
then contribution (earnings) wages) +contribution( earnings)- 59,5 W points related component
GR DB PR: Average of best 5 years’ To civil Pre-1993: Non-linear 80 / 60% 37 IKA: 80% for those being in the LM pre-1993
wages out of last 10 years servants’ wages formula, number of + 20% insured bef. 60% for those entering the LM after 1993; PU: Earnings of the last month; dependants taken into acc. 1.1.1993: in addition, 20% auxiliary pension contributions paid up to a (appr. 2% /year) 65 M ceiling of wages Post 1993: 1.714% of wage 60 W. after 1.1.1993: 65 M, W
ES PR: DB PR: Average of last 15 years’ To prices (up to 15 years of contributions: PR: 35 65 Bonuses for later retirement and reductions
wages a ceiling) 50% of pension rights; 3p.p. PU: flat-rate (5 for early retirement
PU: Flat-rate PU: length of service for each additional year until cat.)
25 years; thereafter, 2 p.p. for
each additional year up to 35
years
FR DB PR: Average of the best 25 To prices PR: 1.33%/year PR: 50 PR: 40 60 Increases for children brought up;
years (to those born after 1948) Supplemented by a mandatory partially
PU: Last 6 months’ wages PU: 2%/year -> 1.875%/year PU: 75 PU: 37.5 funded scheme (second tier), private sector
-> 40 No supplement in public sector
IE Social Contributions for years No formal Social welfare: 65/66 Social insurance pensions may include
welfare: Flatagreements. Flat-rate depending additional payments in respect of adult and
rate Government on the child dependants.
PU: DB decisions each PU: 40 scheme PR: Supplemented by voluntary
year in the occupational pensions.
Budget. PU: Public servants recruited after April
1995 will receive an integrated Social
Security and public occupational pension.
IT Old: DB Average of last 5/10 years’ To prices 2% of reference wage per 80% 40 65 M
wages, progressively increasing each year of contributions 60 W
New: NDC Lifetime contributions To GDP NDC: none NDC: NDC: Higher transformation coefficient for
DG principle none women with children
MS Type of the Pension base Indexation of Accrual of pensions Max. accrual Number Stat. Other factors taken into account
scheme past earnings rate of years retirement
age
CY PR: DB 1.5% for e-r Flat-rate component + 60% of the 61 M Higher flat-rates for beneficiaries with
component earnings-related component average wage + 60 W dependants
supp. 67%
PU: Final salary Tax-financed 33.3
years
LV Old: DB 62 M
New: NDC Lifetime contributions Prices + 50% of DC principle No max No max 60 W (62 Supplemented by a funded tier (2001);
the real wage as of Early retirement actuarially reduced.
sum increase 1.7.2008)
LT DB Contributions for 30 years Flat-rate component 62,5 M Age bonuses for later retirement and
+contribution( earnings)- 60 W reductions for early retirement related component Supplemented by a funded tier (2004)
LU DB Average lifetime wages + To prices plus 1.85% / year 40 After 40 Bonuses after 38 years of contributions and
career length the real wage years of having turned 55 years’ age;
growth working Early retirement possible after 57 years of
lifetime age and 40 years of contributions, or after
60 years of age and 40 years of service.
HU DB Lifetime earnings since 1988 Net wages Accrual of pension points 62 M Bonuses for later retirement and reductions
weighted by earnings 60 W for early retirement brackets Supplemented by a funded tier (appr; 2%/year)
MT DB Average of the best consecutive Contributions for 30 years, 67 61 M
3 years out of last 10 years subject to a ceiling 60 W
NL Flat-rate Based on years lived in NL Flat-rate, 40 lived 65 100% net min; wage for couples
70% of net min. in NL A separate early retirement scheme wage Supplemented by occupational pensions
AT DB Average of best 15 years’ Net wages 2%, to be lowered to 1.78 by 80 45 65 Early/deferred retirement with
wages, extended to 40 years’ 2009 (W: phased reductions/increases of 4.5% / year wages by 2028 in by 2033)
PL Old: DB 65 M Old: To those born before 1.1.1949
New: NDC Lifetime contributions + Wage sum Flat-rate component 60 W Separate scheme for farmers
Calculation of initial capital, +contribution-related Supplemented by a funded tier
based on career length component
PT PR: DB PR: Average of best 10 years’ Wages 2%/year 80 40 60,5 Reductions for early retirement
wages out of last 15 years (old) Average of lifetime wages
MS Type of the Pension base Indexation of Accrual of pensions Max. accrual Number Stat. Other factors taken into account scheme past earnings rate of years retirement
age
phased in 2002-
PU: DB PU: empl.pre-1993: Last wage 2.5% -> 2.25 in 2013 36 -> 40 Merged to general scheme as of 2006
SI DB Average of best 15 consecutive Net wages 2% /year until 1999; No max; 40 years 58 Age bonuses for deferred retirement and
years’ wages in 2005; 1.5%/year as of 2000; 1.5%/year after at 63 for reductions for early retirement (men 63/
FDC for thereafter, number of years to 63m/ 61w men; women 61 years)
occupational be raised to 18 by 2008 38.5
pensions years at
61 for
women
SK DB After 1994: average of lifetime Implicitly Accrual of pension points No max; No max; 62 Age bonuses for later retirement and
earnings; assumed to (depending on career length in general, 50% a min. of reductions for early retirement
wages and earnings brackets; higher after 40 years. 10 years Supplemented by a fully funded tier (2005)
for the lowest earnings), for the
subject to a ceiling eligibil.
FI DB Average of lifetime wages 80:20 1.5% / year up the age 52 No max No max Flexible Early retirement possible at the age of 62
1.9%/year between 53-62, between with a reduction of 7.2 % of the pension; 4.5%/year between 63-68 63-68 Separate unemployment pension scheme to
be phased out by 2014
SE NDC Lifetime contributions Average wage DC principle No max No max Flexible, Supplemented by a funded tier
growth from 61
onwards
UK Flat-rate Men: 44 years’ contributions Contributions scaled by wage Flat-rate 65 M Supplemented by earnings-related State
Women: 39 years’ contrib.; brackets 60 W Second Pension, from which people can opt
out to private schemes
Table 2-2 Some statistical indicators related to pensions
Employment rate of older Average exit age from the Gross replacement rate, Gross replacement rate, Net replacement rate, all
workers 1) labour market 1) 2) public pensions all pensions 2) pensions 2)
2001 2004 2001 2004 2005 2050 2005 2050 2005 2050
BE 25,1 30,0 56,8 59,4 39 37 43 47 67 74
CZ 37,1 42,7 58,9 60,0 61 53 61 53 79 70
DK 58,0 60,3 61,6 62,1 45 39 49 64 71 76
DE 37,9 41,8 60,6 61,3 43 34 43 48 63 67
EE 48,5 52,4 61,1 62,3 33 15 33 36 41 43
GR 38,2 39,4 59,3 59,5 105 94 105 94 115 106
ES 39,2 41,3 60,3 62,2 91 85 91 85 97 92
FR 31,9 37,3 58,1 58,9 66 49 66 49 80 63
IE 46,8 49,5 63,2 62,8 31 34 67 67 78 78
IT 28,0 30,5 59,8 61,0* 79 64 79 80 88 92
CY 49,1 49,9 62,3 62,7 46 57 46 57 52 70
LV 36,9 47,9 62,4 62,9 61 36 61 55 78 72
LT 38,9 47,1 58,9 60,8 31 42 41 50
LU 25,6 30,8 56,8 57,7 91 91 91 91 98 99
HU 23,5 31,1 57,6 60,5 66 58 66 77 102 98
MT 29,4 31,5 57,6 57,7 72 53 72 53 88 61
NL 39,6 45,2 60,9 61,1 30 30 71 69 92 90
AT 28,9 28,8 59,2 58,8* 64 69 64 69 80 94
PL 27,4 26,2 56,6 57,7 63 36 63 36 78 44
PT 50,2 50,3 61,9 62,2 75 70 75 70 91 92
SI 25,5 29,0 .. 56,2*
SK 22,4 26,8 57,5 58,5 49 50 49 50 63 64
FI 45,7 50,9 61,4 60,5 57 52 57 52 63 64
SE 66,7 69,1 61,8 62,8 53 40 68 56 71 57
UK 52,2 56,2 62,0 62,1 17 19 66 69 82 85
EU15 38,8 42,5 60,3 61,0
EU12 35,2 38,6 59,9 60,7
EU25 37,5 41,0 59,9 60,7
* indicator for 2003 Sources: 1) Eurostat: Structural indicators database. Figures are calculated from Labour Force Surveys, based on yearly changes in the participation rates of the single-year age groups between 50 and 70 years. 2) European Commission (2006), Synthesis report on adequate and sustainable pensions (forthcoming ), indicators calculated by the Indicators Sub-Group of the Social Protection Committee. The figures are calculated for a single (male) person with a career of 40 years full-time work at average earnings, contributing to the social security (first pillar, including statutory private pension scheme) and occupational (second pillar) pension schemes and retiring at the age of 65.
Table 2-3 Indexation and taxation regimes of the pension schemes
MS Indexation of pension benefits Taxation regimes
BE Earnings-relate pensions are indexed to prices in the private sector scheme and to wages in civil servants’ pensions
Minimum guaranteed pensions are indexed to prices + discretionary targeted increases to welfare
CZ Decision is made by the government, but the minimum Social benefits are not subject to personal income taxation amount is guaranteed by the law. The minimum is set except for pensions from the pension insurance scheme by the law and usually has represented an inflation provided that the amount of pensions exceeds CZK 162,000 growth (measured by the aggregate consumer price per year. Currently, out of 3.2 million pensions paid out, index) plus at least a third of the growth in real average approximately only 3.2 thousand pensions exceed this limit. wage.
DK The public pensions (old-age, voluntary early Pension payments from all pillars are subject to personal retirement, disability and survivors’ pensions) are income tax. indexed to average wage growth of the private sector.
DE The indexation of the pension point value depends on Old pensions are not taxed; the 2002 reform changed the the increase of gross wages, the change of the taxation regime from the TTE principle to the EET principle, contribution rate and the sustainability factor, which is indicating that the contributions and return on assets became based on the change of the employment/pensioner tax-free while pension benefits will be taxed.. ratio. The taxable share of pensions is 50% in 2005 and increases
by two percentage points per year for new pensioners until 2020, and after that by one percentage point per year, so that
the whole pension will be taxable from retirement in 2040.
EE State pension insurance, 50:50: Indexation depends In principle, pensions are subject to income taxation but the with equal weights (50%-50%) on the increase of threshold is set at such a level that, virtually, pensions are not social tax revenues (wage sum) and the increase of taxed. consumer price index.
GR Minimum pensions are indexed to wages, earningsrelated pensions discretionary.
ES All pension benefits are indexed to expected inflation. All pension benefits are taxed as labour income in general. If actual inflation is above the expected one, the Only certain disability pension benefits are tax-exempted. difference is paid to all pensioners. The average effective tax rate for pension income was about
5% in 2003.
FR Private sector pensions are indexed to price inflation Subject to income tax but with favourable rules.
since 1993; the indexation of public sector pensions Average tax rate applicable to pensioners was 3.8%.
was aligned with that of private sector in 2003.
IE There is no formal indexing arrangement for the social Those aged 65 and over are treated more favourably under welfare pensions system. Instead, pensions are the Irish income tax code than the taxpayers in general. increased each year by Government decisions, taking Tax is due on private and public sector occupational pensions account of budgetary considerations. as they become payable, with the exception of lump sum
payments.
IT Pensions are indexed to prices. All pensions are taxed as labour-income, allowing for deductions that are phased out along increasing income level. Pension income below 7,500 Euro per year are tax-exempt (no tax-area).
CY The basic (flat-rate) part of the pension is indexed to Not taxed wages and the supplementary earnings-related part to prices.
LV Annual adjustments are differentiated according to the Pensions granted before 1996 are not subject to personal amount of pension. Small pensions are indexed fully to income taxation. Pensions granted from 1996 onwards are CPI plus to 50% of the real growth of contribution subject to taxation for the part exceeding 110 lats/month wage sum. The medium pensions are indexed with CPI. (165€).
The same rules for indexation are applied for all state pensions.
MS Indexation of pension benefits Taxation regimes
LT Currently, no automatic indexation but legal acts are Not taxed adopted for each increase of pensions
LU Pensions are automatically adjusted to price evolution Taxation of pensions is identical with that of wages. each time prices increase by more than 2.5%. In addition, pensions are adjusted every two years to the real wage evolution. Whereas price indexation is automatic, the decision on indexing pensions to wage evolution is the responsibility of government and has to be approved by the parliament.
HU Pensions (both the PAYG and funded part of the social Currently, pensions are not taxed. Taxation of pensions will security pensions) granted before 1 January are indexed be introduced in 2013. by an index with weights of 50:50 to net wages and inflation.
MT Pension benefits are linked to the Retail Price Index.
NL Public flat-rate pensions are linked to the minimum Pension savings in the second pillar are taxed as personal wage (70% of the legal minimum wage). income.
Most occupational pension funds aim at wage or price indexation. It is, however, not guaranteed but conditional on the financial position of the fund (coverage ratio). Private pensions are indexed to productivity
AT Pension benefits are adjusted yearly by consumer price Pension benefits are subject to personal income taxation inflation as of 2006, (earlier to net wages).
PL The pensions (both from the general old-age and Subject to personal income taxation. farmers’ pension schemes) are indexed to prices; minimum pensions to prices and wages.
PT Pensions are indexed to prices plus to a real increase of Subject to personal income taxation.
0.1 p.p. annually; minimum pensions are indexed to wages.
SI The pensions are indexed with the rate of (net)wage Not taxed (except for a small part of higher pensions). growth of all employed persons as of 2006 (earlier less than 100%). The indexation takes place twice a year, in
February and November.
SK Pensions are indexed 50:50 to wages and prices. Not taxed
FI Earnings-related pensions are indexed to an index with Minimum and earnings-related pensions are subject to weights of 20:80 to wages and prices. income tax but a specific pension income deduction applies Minimum guaranteed pensions are indexed to prices; which makes all pensions up to the level of minimum discretionary increases by Budget laws pensions tax-free
Private voluntary pensions are subject to capital income
taxation with the flat-rate of 28% (in 2005)
SE Minimum social security pensions are indexed to prices All pensions are subject to personal income tax.
; earnings-related pensions (both PAYG and funded
part) are indexed to average wage growth. (However,
the indexation is front-loaded so that 1.6 percentage
point increase is given at the time of retirement, while
later index adjustments are equal to the average wage
growth minus 1.6 percentage points).
UK State pensions are indexed to prices. Basic state pensions are not taxed.
Occupational and private pensions in defined-benefit Also State Second Pensions mostly are below the threshold
schemes are normally indexed by inflation or 2.5%, for the taxation.
whichever is the lower. In a defined contribution
scheme the accumulated fund continues to be managed
with investment returns accumulating until the ‘end’ of
the scheme.
Table 2-4 Contribution rates of public pension schemes
Contribution rate, % of wages 1 Observations 2
37.94% (social security) The contribution rate covers all branches of social security, including health care, Employer: 24.87% unemployment, disability, family allowances, and the general pension scheme for Employee: 13.07% wage-earners and self employed. The contributions account for approximately “Wage moderation” contribution: 7,48% two-third of the total social security revenues; specific social security taxes and
BE Small additional social security contributions depend transfers from the state budget account for the rest. notably on the firm size; different measures lead to a Means-tested minimum pensions are financed by taxes.
marked reduction in the effective rates compared to the In order to finance the future increase in pension expenditure, the Belgian abovementioned rates. authorities plan to accumulate budgetary resources in a public “ageing fund”
using the decrease in interest payments.
28.00% The contribution rate covers both earning-related and flat-rate social security
CZ Employer: 21.50% pensions. In 2004, the social security pension system was in balance for the first Employee: 6.50% time since 1996.
Public pensions are financed by taxes, with the exception of the voluntary early
DK retirement scheme, to which there is a small own contribution. (Also the statutory supplementary schemes (ATP) are subsidised from tax
revenues.) 19.5% in 2004- 2006 Subsidies from the Federal budget account for 27.5% of pension expenditure in Employer: 9.75% 2004 (33% in 2003). In addition, social assistance pensions are financed by taxes.
DE Employee: 9.75% A target has been set that the contribution rate should not exceed 20% until 2020
and 22% until 2030.
22% Pension insurance contributions covered 94% of social security pensions in 2004.
EE Employer: 16% to the I pillar scheme Special pensions to some groups of government officials (policemen, 4% to the III pillar scheme parliamentarians, judges) are financed from the government budget.
(or 20% to I pillar if the person has not joined the III pillar scheme) Employee: 2% to the III pillar scheme, only to those who have joined 20% (if insured before 31.12.92) Tax subsidies to the financing of contribution-based pensions would have to rise Employer: 13.33% from the current 4.8% of GDP to 15.5% in 2050. In addition, pensions of Employee: 6.67% uninsured persons over 65 and civil servants are financed by taxes. 30% (if insured betw. 1.1.93-31.12.2002 ) Employer: 13.33% The current contribution rate is applied equally to all employees and covers only
GR Employee: 6.67% pension benefits. State: 10.00%
After 1.1.2003 Employer: 13.33% Employee: 6.67% State: 1% of GDP in 2003-2008 on aver. 1% of GDP in 2009-2032 28.3% (social security, except health care and The contribution rate covers contributory benefits for old-age, disability and unemployment benefits) survivors' pensions and maternity benefits. The social security sector is expected
ES Employer: 23.6% to produce a surplus until 2020, thereafter a deficit. Means-tested minimum
Employee: 4.7% pensions are financed by taxes.
Basic scheme: The contribution rate covers old-age and survivors' pensions; disability pensions
Employer: 9.8% (below ceiling) are covered by health insurance contributions.
Employer: 1.6% (above the ceiling) The contribution rate will be raised by 0.2 percentage points in 2006. Further,
FR Employee: 6.55% (below the ceiling) employment measures are expected to reduce unemployment, which would allow Mandatory supplementary scheme: to transfer unemployment contributions to pension financing.
Rate varies between 7.5% - 20% (incl. employer and employee contributions), Depending on wage level and employee status 12.5 – 14.75%, excluding the health levy Social insurance (flat-rate) pensions are financed by contributions. In recent years, Employer: 8.5 – 10.75% the Social Insurance Fund has been in surplus.
IE Employee: 4%; self-employed: 3% Means-tested social assistance pensions are financed by taxes. In the future, due to the extension of the contributory scheme, there will be a shift from tax funding
to contributions.
32.7% Contribution rate covers old age, survivors’ and disability pensions of the social Employer: 23.81% security scheme. Social assistance pensions and additional amounts due to social
Employee: 8.89% assistance purposes are financed by taxes (2.3% of GDP in 2003).
IT The self-employed:
Farmers: 20% Shopkeepers: 19% as of 2013 Artisans: 19% as of 2014
Contribution rate, % of wages 1 Observations 2
12.6% of wages In addition, social (minimum flat-rate) pensions (8.5% of total pension
CY expenditure) and civil servants’ earnings-related pensions (27% of total pension expenditure) are financed from the state budget.
The total contribution to social security for employees, covering sickness, maternity, unemployment, work injury and pensions, is 16.6%, of which employers pay 6.3%, employees 6.3% and the state budget 4.0%. The financing of
pensions requires 12.6% of wages in total.
25.51 % of the wage within the total social insurance The total social insurance contribution covers old-age, survivors’, service (during contribution rate of 33.09% (of which the rate for the transition period) and disability pensions, work injury, maternity, sickness and
LV employers is 24.09% and employees 9%) is needed to unemployment benefits and funeral benefits. finance the old-age, survivors’ and service pensions in The NDC pension contribution covers old-age pensions (including minimum
2004. However, the contribution for the calculation of pension and actuarial early retirement) and it is the basis for the calculation of the NDC pension is fixed at 20% (not separated between survivors’ pensions. employer and employee) of which 2% goes to the funded scheme up to 2006, increased gradually to 10% by 2010, to persons participating in the funded scheme. 26% The pension contribution rate is further broken down by type of pension: (basic) Employer: 23.5% old-age pension (10.5%), supplementary old-age pension (10.6%), disability and
LT Employee: 2.5% survivors’ pensions (4.9%); In 2004, a private (2 nd tier of the I pillar) scheme was introduced with a switch of
a contribution rate at 2.5% (employee’s part) to a private fund. This rate will be increased to 5.5% (2.5% by the employee + 3.0% from the employer’s total contribution) by 2007. In 2004, the State Social Insurance Fund turned to be in
surplus. State pensions to servicemen, policemen, meritorious persons, scientists, judges, casualties as well as social assistance pensions are financed from the state budget.
24% One third of the contribution rate is financed by taxes. The guaranteed minimum Employer: 8% income for old people and public sector employees’ pensions are financed by Employee: 8% taxes. Currently, the contribution rate allows accumulating the pension fund over
LU State: 8% its statutory requirement. The future development of the contribution rate depends heavily on the growth rate.
Further, public sector pensions are financed form the State budget, 2.5% of GDP in 2004.
26.5% Disability pensions and survivors’ benefits (13% of all pension expenditure) are
HU Employer: 18% financed by health insurance contributions and transfers from the government Employee: 8.5% (fully to the PAYG scheme, if not budget.
joined the 2 nd tier of the I pillar; Social insurance fund required a subsidy of 23.6 of its total expenditure from the
0.5% to the PAYG scheme and State budget (1.8% of GDP) in 2004. Also, supplementary means-tested 8.0% to the funded scheme when joined allowances guaranteeing the minimum old-age income are financed by taxes
(0.6% of GDP).
30% Covers all social insurance, including all pensions, short-term benefits, hospital, Employer: 10% community and elderly care.
MT Employee: 10% State (tax revenues): 10%
(with a substantial variation acc. to age and wage level of the employee) (Self-employed: 15% + state: 7.5%) 17.9% (old-age pension) A target has been set to ensure that the old-age pension contribution rate will not 1.25% (survivors' scheme) be raised above 18.25%. The contribution rate of 17.9% is expected to produce a
NL Employee: 19.15% surplus until 2010. Thereafter, the deficit is covered from the reserve fund and taxes. In addition, a contribution rate of 1.25% is paid for the survivors’ scheme
and a rate of between 7.09-13.93% for disability benefit schemes.
22.8% The contribution rate was harmonised for all groups in 2004; however, the rates Employer: 12.55% paid by the self-employed (17.5%) and farmers (15%) are lower but subsidised up Employee: 10.25% ; different rates in the civil service to 22.8% from general tax revenues. Furthermore, contributions are paid from tax schemes without any ceilings revenues for periods of child care, military/civilian service, sickness benefits,
AT maternity allowances and long-term care.
There is a deficit guarantee for the statutory pension insurance to be covered from the Federal budget. In 2004, the government financing of the pension system accounted for 2.6% of GDP.
Contribution rate, % of wages 1 Observations 2
Total pension contribution: 32.52% of gross wage, of The earnings-related old-age pension contribution constitutes of a notional which: defined-contribution scheme (12.22%) and a pre-funded defined-contribution
PL 19.52% (old-age pension) scheme (7.3%); these rates are to be kept constant in the future. The outflow of 13.00% (disability & survivors pensions) the funded contributions creates a financing gap in the PAYG Social Insurance
Paid by: scheme – in 2004 it was 1.2% of GDP, while the total subsidy for the financing of employer: 16.26%, of which pensions amounted to 3.8% of GDP. 9.56% (old-age) Disability and survivors’ pensions are financed from separate contribution 6.50% (disability and survivors) (13.0%). Farmers’ old-age and disability pensions are financed up to 90% of the employee: 16.26%, of which pension payments from state budget subsidies (1.7% of GDP in 2004). 9.56% (old-age) Furthermore, minimum pension guarantee (topping-up a small pension from 6.50% (disability and survivors) earnings related pension system) as well as contributions during selected career (In addition: 0.97-3.86% (work injury; paid by breaks (maternity and parental leave, periods out of work due to the care of a employer) and 2.45% (sickness and maternity; paid by disabled child, unemployment benefit period) are financed by taxes (or other employee)) public sources).
34.75% (contributory cash benefits) The contribution rate covers all contributory benefits (pensions, sickness, Employer: 23.75% unemployment, maternity, professional deceases, family benefits). Means-tested
PT Employee: 11% universal non-contributory social pension and other benefits are financed by taxes (3.3% of GDP in 2000). The social security sector currently produces a surplus of
1.7% of GDP, projected to turn into a deficit of 1.5% of GDP by 2050.
24.35% The contribution rate covers old-age, survivors' pensions, disability pensions and
SI Employer: 8.85% health insurance contributions for retired persons. The public pension scheme is Employee: 15.50% subsidised by state budget for the difference between contributions collected and
the actual payment of the pensions concerned. It is currently in surplus (0.1% of GDP in 2005) but, without reforms, would fall into a deficit about2010,
increasing to 10% of GDP in 2050 under current policies and activity rates.
24% in 2005; In addition, employers pay a contribution of 4.75% of wages into the Reserve Employer: 17%, of which Solidarity Fund.
SK 14% to old-age scheme A mandatory funded pension scheme was introduced in 2005. For those, who 3% to disability scheme join the scheme, half of the old-age pension contribution (9%) is passed on to
Employee: 7%; of which personal accounts of private funds. This introduction of the mandatory funded 4.0% to old-age scheme pension scheme is estimated to result in a deficit in the financing of the social
3.0% to disability scheme security pensions by 1.3% of GDP as of 2006.
Earnings-related pensions in 2005: The earnings-related pension contribution for the private sector (21.6%) is Employer: 16.8% (private sector) estimated to rise by about 7 percentage points (taking account of the 2005 18.9% (state sector) reforms). Means-tested (against pension income) national basic pensions and the
FI 23.4% (municipalities) pensions of sea-farers, self-employed persons and farmers are partially financed
Employee: 4.8% by taxes; the subsidy totalling to 1.7% of GDP in 2004. National basic pensions: Employer: 2.3% (private sector) 18.5% (old-age pension) The earnings-related pension system is a notional defined-contribution system Employer: 10.21% (16%) and a pre-funded defined-contribution system (2.5%); these rates are to be Employee: 7% kept constant in the future. Income guarantee pensions (means-tested against Note that the contributions add up to 17.21% only public pensions), disability and survivors’ pensions and contributions during
SE because the contribution paid by the employee (7%) is career breaks are financed by taxes.
deducted from the income of which contributions are defined. 1.7% (survivors' scheme)
19.85% (social security except health); The contribution rate covers the basic state pension and the additional earningsin 2005 related pension (SERPS/State Second Pension) as well as disability and widow’s Employer: 10.9% in 2005 benefits, contributory jobseeker’s allowance, maternity and guardian allowances,
UK Employee: 8.95% in 2005 redundancy payments. Means-tested Minimum Income Guarantee/Pension Credit (Class 1 contribution rates; for those not contracted out, benefits and civil servants’ pensions are financed by taxes.
earnings between the primary threshold and the upper The contribution rates to private pension schemes vary considerably: in 2004, in earnings limit for employees) open funds 9-17% and in closed funds 7-21% of wages.
1 Source: National Strategy Reports 2005; European Commission, MISSOC and Ageing Working Group update in 2005. The rates apply to the general, first-pillar social protection schemes. In many Member States, there are floors or ceilings for earnings which are subject to contributions. Rates may also be different for the self-employed.
21
Table 2-5 Pension expenditure projection models in the Member States
Country Name and owner organisation Type of the model Base data on pensions Modelling issues and other observations of the model
BE The Maltese System (Model for Deterministic macrosimulation model. Administrative and national account Occupational pensions – no
analysis of long term evolution of Detailed sub-models for each social data social expenditure) security scheme as for demographic and Modelling the whole social security system Federal Planning Bureau socio-demographic projections
CZ Pension model Semi-aggregated simulation model; GAMS Pension data of 2003 by age cohorts All pension benefits under social security system
Ministry of Finance and sexes; data on inflows and modelled.
outflows of pensioners
DK All public pensions covered Public pension expenditure with the Assumes a constant share of population by gender, age
Ministry of Finance breakdown to public old-age (flat-rate), and origin on public pensions with corrections for means-tested supplements and civil reforms (e.g. a lower statutory retirement age) and
servants’ pensions according to 2004 changes in the labour force participation rates. National account statistics.
DE Pension projection model Two sub-models: (1) the demographic Pension data of 2004 by age cohort and Occupational pensions: no
Ministry of Health and Social pension model (cohort model) and (2) the sex; data on inflows and outflows of Security financial pension model (a partial pensioners. equilibrium model)
EE Pension model Macrosimulation model Administrative data of National Additional assumptions:
Ministry of Finance Pension Insurance Fund -wage structure by age and gender (to calculate the
earnings-related pension expenditure)
-structure of different pensioners (according to changes
in legislation)
-structure of wages of switchers to the II pillar
GR Projection Models for different In most part, the data used were Separate models for different funds require also that the
funds submitted by the pension funds (IKA total population is divided into sub-populations of the
National Actuarial Authority etc.) directly to the National Actuarial funds
Authority
IKA is the largest social insurance organization in the
country, covering approximately half of the labour force
and pensioners
The technical approach is focussed on modelling employees’ and employers’ contributions and the provision of pensions. The outcome of the projection
produces a cash-flow pattern.
Country Name and owner organisation Type of the model Base data on pensions Modelling issues and other observations of the model
ES Four projection models for Deterministic, partial equilibrium model Social security administration data and The whole social security pension system is covered by
-
a)social security old-age and early Ministry of Economy and Finance data the model; pensions; b) social security Occupational and private pensions not modelled. disability pensions; c) social security survivors’ pensions; d) public sector (CPE) pensions
FR Ministry of Health and Solidarity Partial equilibrium model, supported by Occupational pensions: no
associated by Ministry of Finance the results of a microsimulation model for and the French pension policy the private sector pensions, run by council (COR) CNAVTS (national pension fund for salaries workers)
IE Model for social insurance and Partial equilibrium model Private sector occupational pensions: no
assistance pensions Ministry of Social and Family affairs
A separate model for public sector employees’ pensions Ministry of Finance
IT RGS pension model, macrosimulation model based on a Social security system database Numbers enrolled in the pension system are projected
Ministry of Economy and Finance, dynamic, multi-state approach involving a according to the level of disaggregation provided by the
Department of General Accounts large number of ‘state’ variables ‘state’ variables
‘monetary’ variables (pension amount, wages) are projected in terms of their mean value associated to
each possible “positions” within the system
Takes migration flows into account
CY PROST (the World Bank model)
LV Social Insurance Budget Model Microsimulation model Pension data from the State Social
Ministry of Welfare Insurance Agency Social security schemes (public and private tiers)
Complementary calculations on special service pensions (artists,
Country Name and owner organisation Type of the model Base data on pensions Modelling issues and other observations of the model workers in international affairs etc.)
LT The State Social Insurance pension Pension Reform Illustration and Simulation Pension data from state social The program methodology based on the ‘average
system together with the I and II tier Model, semi aggregated insurance institutions person’ parameter modelling. of the I pillar: PRISM Ministry of Social Security and The number of the recipients of the State pensions and Labour the projections of the pension size were estimated by using the model which was created specially for this Social security schemes (public and purpose and based on Excel program private tiers)
LU General Inspection Authority of Sequential approach, transition Pension data from the National Social Basic dimensions of the model are age, sex, and country
Social security (IGSS) probabilities Insurance Institution of origin. Additional dimensions allow differentiate between employment statuses (blue collar, white collar,
civil servants) and the pension type (old-age, early oldage, disability, survivor).
HU Ministry of Finance Deterministic semi-aggregated Age-specific exit probabilities and average benefit
microsimulation model levels are calculated from developments observed in the Social security pensions (public and past and corrected in line with movements in labour
private tiers) supply and effects of legislative changes.
Basic unit of calculation: group of pensioners of the
same age, sex and with the same type of benefit
MT PROST (the World Bank model); The World Bank’s reform option Base year 2002
used by the Economic Policy simulation model Division of the Ministry of finance
NL Separate models for social security First pillar The three pillars that form the pension system are
schemes (MOSI), occupational - An OLG-General Equilibrium model treated separately. pensions (EXPLOT) and occupational early retirement Second Pillar GDP slightly higher than assumed by the AWG pensions (PVK) - model of a single average pension fund Central Planning Bureau
AT Two independent models: Static microsimulation model
Private sector and public sector
Bundesministerium fur Financen
Country Name and owner organisation Type of the model Base data on pensions Modelling issues and other observations
of the model
PL FUS04 model Multiple decrement cohort-component Separate models for
Ministry of Economy, Labour and actuarial model 1) (ZUS) the general scheme (old-age and disability
Social Policy pensions)
-
2)Pre-retirement pensions
-
3)(KRUS) farmers pensions
-
4)Security provision pensions (armed forces, police,
etc.)
PT ModpensPor Model Partial equilibrium model Base year 2004 Runs aggregate projections on variables such as
Private sector social security contributions, unemployment benefits, sick leave
schemes benefits and maternity benefits, as well as micro-level
Ministry of Labour and Social projections (based on individual profiles) on pensions
Solidarity and family benefits.
Civil serants pension schemes
Ministry of Finance
SI Institute for Economic Research, Generational accounting model Administrative data of the Pension Overlapping Generations: 5 year intervals, 1, 2, 5 or 10
Ministry of Finance Insurance Institute different household groups. Sectoral disaggregation: 2 –
Dynamic overlapping-generations 30 sectors. Social security module, Government, taxes.
general equilibrium model .
SK PROST The World Bank’s reform option toolkit, a Age and sex-specific data from Social Inputs: All AWG assumptions (age specific for each
Ministry of Finance semi-aggregated simulation model Insurance Agency and the Ministry of year);
Finance - Earnings profiles from National Statistical Office
-
-Number of contributors, beneficiaries, coverage rate
(age specific)
-
-Number of pensions as a percent of population -
linked with participation rates and unemployment rates
-
-New pension defined by average replacement rate
-
-Number of switchers from pure PAYG to mixed
system
FI Model for national (minimum) Deterministic state model Administrative data of the institutions,
pensions; covering also longitudional data on Social Insurance Institution careers, wages, pension accruals etc. Model for earning-related social security pensions; Finnish Centre for Pensions
SE SESIM Dynamic microsimulation model The start year is 1999 and the initial The base population used in SESIM is formed by a
Ministry of Finance sample is approximately 100 000 random draw of 104 000 individuals from LINDA individuals. (longitudional database of administrative data). To this sample 8 000 individuals have been added from the National Social Insurance Board register for pensions
rights (oversees residents with Swedish pension rights).
Country Name and owner organisation Type of the model Base data on pensions Modelling issues and other observations of the model
UK Government Actuary’s Department Basic retirement pension Occupational schemes: no
(GAD) responsible for the part of ? the pension projections relating to Pensions Credit Separate models for different pension schemes (Basic the National Insurance Fund. - static microsimulation model state pensions, state second pension, public sector In 2004 HM Treasury employees, disability benefits) commissioned GAD to produce Public service pensions public service pension projections. ? Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) produces the Pension Credits and other types of benefits ?
Table 2-6 Main features of recent pension reforms
Country Main features of the reforms implemented
BE The standard retirement age for women will increase gradually from age 63 in 2003 to 64 in 2006 and will be 65 in 2009 in the general schemes for wage-earners and self-employed. Early-retirement 2003 (seniority pension) is still possible, but the required contribution period has been increased from 32
years in 2003 to 35 years in 2005. Also, the “older workers’ unemployment scheme” has been
recently reformed and is under discussion for further reforms.
CZ Before the pension reform in 2003, men retired at the age of 60 and women at 53-57, depending on the number of children (one year less per child). Since January 2004, the age of retirement is 2003 increased constantly over time (2 months per year for men and 4 months per year for women) to
reach 63 years for men and 59-63 for women (still depending on the number of children) in 2013. The so-called “temporarily reduced pension”, an early retirement scheme, has been abolished, while the so-called “permanently reduced pension” scheme (allowing early retirement up to three years before the normal retirement age) is still in place but with a stronger reduction of the pension
benefit (0.9% for each 90 calendar days from the statutory retirement age).
DK 2003 In 2003, eligibility to disability pensions was redefined so that, instead of defining the disability degree, the work ability degree is defined. Persons with some work ability are directed to subsidised jobs (and if unemployed, to special unemployment benefit) instead of granting a disability pension. 2004 As of 1 July 2004, the statutory retirement age is 65 instead of 67. At the same time, the voluntary
early retirement pension was made less attractive with the aim of increasing the effective retirement
age.
DE
1992-2001 An increase of the statutory retirement age to 65 was legislated in 1992. The transition period of the
increase of the statutory retirement age was fastened several times (1996, 1999, 2001 and 2004)
will be completed by 2012 for those born in 1952 or later. The statutory retirement age for women
and the unemployed will rise from 60 to 65 by 2011. For those born in 1952 or later, early
retirement will be possible at the age of 62 with the condition of at least 35 years of contribution. In
addition, pensions are reduced by 3.6% per year in the case of early retirement, while a bonus of
6% per year is granted for deferred retirement. The reduction for disability pensions before the age
of 62 is up to a maximum of 10.8%.
2002, 2004 The 2001 reform aimed at promoting the development of supplementary pension schemes whilst
reducing slightly the target replacement ratio in the social security scheme. The 2004 old-age
pension insurance Sustainability Act introduced a sustainability factor in the pension indexation
formula. This requires maintaining the set quantitative ratio between the numbers of beneficiaries
and contributors (dependency ratio). This sustainability factor led to no index adjustments in
pensions in 2004 and 2005.
Time spent in school and university will no longer be counted as years worked. The possibility of
leaving the labour market at the age of 58 while receiving unemployment benefits until pension
retirement (so-called 58er regulation) will be abolished in 2008.
EE Changes in the PAYG system include rising the retirement age for female to 63 by 2016 and
2001 revising the benefit formula. Legislation passed in mid-September 2001 set up mandatory
individual accounts for the funded tier, allowing to switch a part of the statutory social security
pension into private pension funds. Since 2002, over half the labour force has joined funded
schemes.
ES The mandatory retirement age (65) was abolished, while the accrual of pension rights after 65 was
2002-2005 increased by 2%/year and the contributions abolished. Early retirement is discouraged by the
reduction of contributions rates (50% at the age of 60, increasing by 10 p.p. by each additional
year) and made possible only from the age 61 provided that contributions have been paid at least
during 30 years and the person has been unemployed at least 6 months. Moreover, the pension is
reduced by 6.0-8.0%/year, depending on the number of contribution years. Pensions have also been
made compatible with part-time work; the pension benefit is reduced according to the length of the
working day.
FR The main measures of the reform implemented as of 2004 include a prolongation of the contribution
2004 period for a full pension from 37.5 to 40 years for public sector employees and a further increase to
41 years for all employees between 2009 and 2012 and to 41.75 in 2020. Thereafter, further gains
Country Main features of the reforms implemented
in life expectancy (at 60) will prolong the contribution period by 2/3 of the increase in life expectancy. Moreover, retirement was made more flexible but bonus/malus adjustments will be applied to deferred/earlier retirement. In the case of postponement, the bonus is 3% per year. As of 2006, the amount of the penalty (“la décote”; applied if retired before 40 years of contributions) will decrease gradually from 10% to 5% of pension per year of anticipation in 2015 for the private sector and will increase from 0.5% to 5% for civil servants). Furthermore, pensions were indexed to
prices only and the contribution rate will be increased by 0.2 of a percentage point as of 2006.
IE 1999 The National Pension Reserve fund was established in 1999 with the aim of pre-funding in part the
future Exchequer cost of social welfare and public service pensions. A statutory obligation has been
placed on the Government to pay a sum equivalent to 1% of GNP from the Exchequer into the fund
each year until at least 2055.
2000 A series of significant tax incentives have been introduced for the purpose of promoting pension
provision amongst the self-employed, employers in non-pensionable employment and proprietary
directors. These incentives aim at encouraging individuals to plan for the pension provision early on
in their careers.
2003 Personal Retirement Savings Accounts which seek to promote supplementary pension coverage
were introduced.
Reforms of the public pension system implemented to date have allowed for the raising of the
minimum pension age and the removal of a compulsory retirement age for most public servants. A
cost-neutral early retirement scheme with actuarially reduced benefits has been introduced.
IT As of 2008, regardless the regime (earnings-related, mixed, contribution-defined), the take-up of
2004 early pensions will be tightened. To take-up a pension at an age lower than 65 for men (60 for
women) is allowed only to those with 40 or more years of contributions or to those with 35 years of
contributions and the age of 60 for the employed (61 for the self-employed), instead of the flexible
age range 57-65 before the reform. Further, the age limits will be raised by one year in 2010 and
2014, thus reaching 62 for the employed and 63 for the self-employed. A further postponement of
pension is envisaged with respect to the moment at which the requirements are met through the socalled
‘exit windows’ (finestre).
During the period 2008-2015, the take-up of seniority pensions for those having met the
requirements of the legislation before 2004 (at least 35 years of contributions and the age of 57 for
the employed / 58 for the self-employed) is limited to women who accept the pension calculation
according to a less favourable contribution method.
During the period 2004-2007, those employed in the private sector and having satisfied the
requirements for a seniority pension may opt for a different regime providing: i) an additional pay
corresponding to the whole pension contribution (32.7% of gross wages), ii) the total tax exemption
of this additional income and iii) pension amount calculated according to the contribution years
matured at the date of the option and indexed to inflation for the period until old-age retirement.
HU The standard retirement age for women will increase to 60 by 2005, 61 by 2007 and 62 by 2009
(before the reform it was 57).
1997 A funded tier was introduced in 1997, allowing to transfer a 8% contribution (26.5% of the total
social security pension contribution) into private pension funds. This funded tier is mandatory to all
new entrants to the labour market. In 2005, already 62% of the labou rforce have joined funded
schemes.
LV The Latvian social security pension system was reformed into a notional defined-contribution
1996 scheme in 1996 and complemented with the introduction of a funded tier in 2001, allowing to
transfer a part of the contribution into private pension fund; the contribution is currently 2% but to
be raised to 10% (50% of the total contribution) by 2010. Furthermore, the standard age
requirement for women (60.5 years until July 2006) will increase by 6 months each year to reach 62
by 2008. Those for men reached 62 in 2003. Early retirement up to two years before the standard
retirement age remains possible until July 2008.
LT The standard minimum retirement age for women (55 years in 1995, 58.5 years in 2003) will
1995 increase by 6 months each year to reach 60 years in 2006. The retirement age for men was gradually
increased (2 months per year) from 60 years in 1995 up to 62.5 in 2003.
2004 A funded tier was introduced in 2004, allowing transfer a part of the statutory social security
pension contribution (to raise to 5.5% in 2007) into private pension funds. The switch is voluntary
to all.
NL Decisions have been taken to reduce the incentives for the take-up of early retirement pensions
Country Main features of the reforms implemented
2006 (VUT), mainly via the reduction of the favourable tax treatment of such pensions.
AT The minimum retirement age for men will increase from 61.5 years to 65 years; for women the age will rise from 56.5 to 60 years. The increase will be phased in gradually beginning in July 2004 and by 2017 early retirement will be eliminated. The statutory retirement age for women will be increased gradually between 2019 and 2034 to reach the retirement age for men at 65. 2003, The 2003 reform abolished early retirement schemes and linked benefits more closely to 2004 contributions. The 2004 reform introduced significant improvements for the financial sustainability
of the pension system via a better transparency between contributions and benefits; bonus/malus adjustments (4.2%/year) are applied for deferred/earlier retirement and a longer contribution period (45 years) is required for a full pension (80%) at the age of 65. Also, a switch to the price indexation of pensions as of 2006 has already been decided. Furthermore, an alignment between different sectoral schemes has been undertaken. From January 2005, harmonised guaranteed pension accounts will be established (Act on the harmonisation of pension system, approved in November 2004). In the new system, individual, transparent pension accounts will be kept to report of benefits accrued from contributions paid in and other credits acquired, such as from active child
and elderly care.
PL The Polish general social security pension system was reformed into a notional defined-contribution
1999 scheme in 1999, with the introduction of a funded tier at the same time, allowing to transfer a part
of the contribution (7.3%) into private pension funds. The switch is mandatory to persons born after
1969. Those born before 1948 as well as partially the pensions of those born between 1949-1968
remain in the old defined-benefit scheme. Farmers are not included in the reformed scheme.
The standard retirement age remains 65 for male and 60 for female. There will be no early pension
for those born after 1948 and retiring after 2006, with the exception of those who worked long
enough (20 years) in special conditions.
PT The general social security pension scheme was reformed in 2002, changing the calculation rules of
2002 pensions to be based on lifetime earnings (max. 40 years) instead of the best 10 years over the last
15 years’ wages, however, being phased in over a long transition period.
2005 The 2005 reform aligned the public sector employees’ pensions with the general pension scheme
(previously aligned only to those who had entered the labour market after 1993), raising the
statutory retirement age from 60 in 2005 to 65 by 2015, raising the length of the contribution period
required for a full pension from 36 to 40 by 2013 and applying bonus/malus adjustments for
deferred/earlier retirements.
SK The standard retirement age will increase from 60 to 62 for men (9 month per year) by 2007 and 2004 from the former 57 (reduced by 1 year per child , to reach age 53) to 62 for women by 2016. A
worker can still retire earlier if the combined benefit from the first and the newly introduced second pillar equal at least 60% of the minimum living standard determined by the government. In this case, the pension is reduced by 6% per year while a bonus of 6% is introduced for those postponing
retirement. It is also possible to get pension benefit while working. A funded tier was introduced in 2005, which is mandatory to the new entrants to the labour market, allowing transfer half the statutory social security pension contribution (9) into private pension funds.
SI The standard retirement age has been increased. It is now possible to retire between 58 and 63 for 2000 men and 61 for women (the minimum retirement age was 53 for women and 58 for men before the
reform). Women that worked before the age of 18 can retire earlier (but not before the age of 55). Special regulations reduce the age of retirement to 55 in certain cases (before the reform it was possible even below 50). The minimum retirement age is raised from 53 to 58 for women (the same as for men). The accrual rate was reduced from 2% to 1.5% since 2000. Later retirement has been encouraged: a person who fulfils the requirement for pension but continues to work beyond the age 63/61 will receive an additional pension increase (3.6% the first additional year, 2.4% the second
year and 1.2% in the third, plus the normal rate of accrual, 1.5% per year). The indexation of pensions has varied from year to year. During the period of 2000-2004, it was 50% to wages and in 2005 80% to wages. Prices were taken in to account only when the result of the indexation was below the price increase in 2001-2005. As of 2006, it will be fully to wages. A new supplementary pre-funded pension insurance was introduced. It is mandatory for early
Country Main features of the reforms implemented
pension in heavy and unhealthy work and voluntary for collectively agreed pension insurance.
FI The 2003-2005 revisions of the pension scheme aim to raise the effective retirement age (by 2 years
2003-2005 by 2025) by removing the unemployment pension scheme (between 2009-2014) and removing the
individual disability (early retirement) scheme whilst allowing flexible retirement between 63-68
years and an early retirement at the age of 62. The accrual rate is increased to 4.5% for those
continuing to work beyond the age of 63 (previously 2.5% for those working beyond 60) and an
actuarial reduction of 0.6% per month is applied to those retiring prior to 63. The ceiling on the
maximum pension is abolished. Pension benefits are calculated on the basis of life-time earnings.
Also, a life expectancy coefficient will be implemented in the system as of 2009, adjusting future
old-age and survivors’ benefits to the increase in life expectancy.
SE Under the new notional defined contribution system is possible to retire from age 61 onwards, with
1998 an actuarially fair compensation for those who stay on in the labour force. Every year of
contributions is important for the pension benefit. A person with an average wage will increase his
yearly pension benefit by nearly 60 per cent if he postpones his retirement decision till age 67
compared to leaving at age 61. Yearly “statement of account” informs the individual of costs and
benefits of retirement. The new system is phased in gradually for generations born between 1938
and 1953, and will affect generations born after 1953 fully.
UK Between 2010 and 2020, women’s pensionable age will gradually rise from 60 to 65, as for men.
2002-2003 In 2002, the State Second Pension was introduced (replacing the earlier State Earnings-related
Pension), resulting in time in higher benefits. In 2003, the Pension Credit was introduced,
increasing income-related benefits to people over 60. Also, the basic State pension has been
increased more than what the statutory indexation rule (with prices) requires.
-
3.D ETAILED RESULTS OF THE P ENSION PROJECTIONS – SENSITIVITY TESTS
Table 3-1 High life expectancy scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
P u b lic p en s io n s , g ro ss as % o f G D P C h an g e C h an g e C h an g e C ou n try 2 0 04 2 0 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 40 20 50 2 00 4 -2 03 0 2 03 0 -2 05 0 2 00 4 -2 05 0
B E 1 0,4 1 0,5 1 1,1 1 2,2 1 3,6 1 4,8 1 6 ,1 1 6 ,1 4,4 1,2 5,7 C Z 8 ,5 8 ,2 8 ,2 8 ,5 8 ,9 9 ,6 1 2 ,4 1 4 ,4 1,2 4,8 5,9 D K 9 ,5 1 0,1 1 0,8 1 1,4 1 2,1 1 3,0 1 3 ,9 1 3 ,4 3,6 0,4 4,0 D E 1 1,4 1 0,5 1 0,5 1 1,0 1 1,7 1 2,4 1 2 ,9 1 3 ,3 1,0 1,0 2,0 E E 6 ,7 6 ,8 6 ,0 5 ,4 5 ,1 4 ,8 4 ,4 4,3 -1,9 -0,5 -2,4 G R E S 8 ,6 8 ,9 8 ,8 9 ,3 1 0,4 1 1,9 1 5 ,2 1 5 ,8 3,3 3,9 7,2 F R 1 2,8 1 3,0 1 3,2 1 3,8 1 4,2 1 4,6 1 5 ,4 1 5 ,4 1,7 0,8 2,6 IE 4 ,7 5 ,2 5 ,9 6 ,5 7 ,3 8 ,0 9 ,5 1 1 ,5 3,2 3,5 6,7 IT 1 4,2 1 4,0 1 3,9 1 4,1 1 4,5 1 5,2 1 6 ,1 1 4 ,9 0,9 -0,2 0,7 C Y L V 6 ,8 4 ,9 4 ,7 4 ,9 5 ,4 5 ,7 6 ,0 5,7 -1,1 0,1 -1,1 LT 7 ,2 6 ,8 6 ,9 7 ,4 8 ,0 8 ,5 8 ,9 9,5 1,3 1,0 2,3 L U H U 1 0,4 1 1,0 1 1,4 1 2,4 1 2,8 1 3,2 1 5 ,7 1 6 ,8 2,8 3,6 6,4 M T 7 ,5 9 ,0 1 0,1 1 0,6 1 0,5 9 ,6 8 ,4 7,6 2,1 -2,1 0,1 N L 7 ,7 7 ,6 8 ,4 9 ,0 9 ,9 1 0,8 1 2 ,0 1 1 ,7 3,1 0,9 4,0 A T 1 3,4 1 2,9 1 2,7 1 2,9 1 3,7 1 4,2 1 3 ,8 1 2 ,6 0,8 -1,5 -0,8 P L 1 3,9 1 1,3 9 ,8 9 ,7 9 ,5 9 ,2 8 ,8 8,2 -4,6 -1,1 -5,7 P T 1 1,1 1 1,9 1 2,7 1 4,2 1 5,1 1 6,2 1 9 ,2 2 1 ,4 5,1 5,3 1 0 ,3 S I 1 0,9 1 0,9 1 1,4 1 2,2 1 3,2 1 4,4 1 7 ,0 1 8 ,8 3,5 4,4 7,9 S K 7 ,2 6 ,7 6 ,6 7 ,0 7 ,4 7 ,8 8 ,5 9,4 0,6 1,6 2,2 F I 1 0,7 1 1,2 1 2,1 1 2,9 1 3,6 1 4,1 1 4 ,0 1 3 ,9 3,4 -0,2 3,3 S E 1 0,6 1 0,1 1 0,3 1 0,5 1 0,8 1 1,2 1 1 ,8 1 1 ,6 0,6 0,4 1,0 U K 6 ,6 6 ,7 6 ,8 6 ,9 7 ,4 8 ,0 8 ,5 8,8 1,4 0,8 2,2
E U 15 1 ) 1 0,6 1 0,4 1 0,5 1 0,9 1 1,5 1 2,2 1 3 ,1 1 3 ,2 1,6 1,0 2,6 E U 10 1 ) 1 1,0 9 ,9 9 ,2 9 ,5 9 ,7 9 ,8 1 0 ,6 1 1 ,1 -1,2 1,2 0,1 E U 12 1 ) 1 1,5 1 1,3 1 1,4 1 1,9 1 2,6 1 3,3 1 4 ,4 1 4 ,4 1,8 1,1 2,9 E U 25 1 ) 1 0,6 1 0,3 1 0,4 1 0,8 1 1,4 1 2,0 1 3 ,0 1 3 ,0 1,4 1,0 2,4
1 ) exc lud in g c ou n trie s w hic h h a ve n ot prov id ed d ata
Table 3-2 High life expectancy scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Total pension expenditure, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,5 11,1 12,2 13,6 14,8 16,1 16,1 4,4 1,2 5,7 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,2 8,5 8,9 9,6 12,4 14,4 1,2 4,8 5,9 DK DE 11,4 10,5 10,5 11,0 11,7 12,4 12,9 13,3 1,0 1,0 2,0 EE 6,7 6,8 6,0 5,6 5,4 5,3 5,7 6,7 -1,3 1,4 0,0 GR ES 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,3 10,4 11,9 15,2 15,8 3,3 3,9 7,2 FR 12,8 13,0 13,2 13,8 14,2 14,6 15,4 15,4 1,7 0,8 2,6 IE IT 14,2 14,0 13,9 14,1 14,5 15,2 16,1 14,9 0,9 -0,2 0,7 CY LV 6,8 4,9 4,7 5,0 5,6 6,1 7,2 8,4 -0,7 2,4 1,6 LT 7,2 6,8 6,9 7,5 8,2 8,8 9,8 11,3 1,7 2,4 4,1 LU HU 10,4 11,0 11,5 12,5 13,1 13,7 17,4 20,0 3,3 6,2 9,6 MT 7,5 9,0 10,1 10,6 10,5 9,6 8,4 7,6 2,1 -2,1 0,1 NL 12,4 12,3 13,5 14,8 16,5 18,5 21,1 20,7 6,1 2,2 8,3 AT 13,4 12,9 12,7 12,9 13,7 14,2 13,8 12,6 0,8 -1,5 -0,8 PL 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,8 9,7 9,5 9,4 9,5 -4,4 0,0 -4,4 PT 11,1 11,9 12,7 14,2 15,1 16,2 19,2 21,4 5,1 5,3 10,3 SI 10,9 10,9 11,4 12,2 13,2 14,4 17,0 18,8 3,5 4,4 7,9 SK 7,2 6,7 6,7 7,3 7,9 8,5 9,9 11,7 1,3 3,2 4,5 FI 10,7 11,2 12,1 12,9 13,6 14,1 14,0 13,9 3,4 -0,2 3,3 SE 12,9 12,5 12,8 13,0 13,4 14,1 14,8 14,2 1,1 0,1 1,3 UK
EU15 1) 12,0 11,7 11,9 12,4 13,1 14,0 15,2 15,1 2,0 1,1 3,1
EU10 1) 11,0 9,9 9,3 9,6 9,8 10,1 11,4 12,5 -0,9 2,4 1,5
1)
EU12 12,0 11,7 11,9 12,4 13,1 14,0 15,2 15,2 2,0 1,2 3,2
EU25 1) 12,0 11,6 11,7 12,2 12,9 13,7 14,9 14,9 1,7 1,3 3,0
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-3 High life expectancy scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
All pensions, assets as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 4,4 7,4 13,5 16,2 12,9 0,5 -4,0 CZ 0,3 3,4 6,5 9,1 9,7 7,2 6,9 DK DE 0,1 0,4 0,8 EE 2,8 9,4 15,9 26,0 38,4 51,3 77,4 100,8 48,5 49,5 98,0 GR ES FR 1,2 2,0 2,9 4,0 3,5 2,8 1,5 1,6 IE IT CY LV 0,3 12,9 25,9 38,0 48,2 57,3 68,0 70,2 57,0 12,8 69,8 LT 0,3 4,3 8,7 14,2 21,1 28,5 42,5 54,2 28,2 25,8 53,9 LU HU 4,0 13,2 21,9 31,4 40,9 49,7 67,2 72,7 45,7 23,0 68,7 MT NL 135,5 161,0 178,3 197,0 217,5 235,9 251,4 257,4 100,4 21,4 121,8 AT PL 7,1 15,9 24,1 33,5 42,7 51,3 70,5 86,5 44,2 35,2 79,5 PT 4,3 4,0 SI SK 7,0 12,8 19,0 25,2 31,7 46,2 59,1 31,7 27,4 59,1 FI 52,4 59,3 63,1 66,1 68,3 70,1 71,3 72,6 17,7 2,6 20,2 SE 38,6 53,2 60,2 65,3 68,7 71,1 66,1 57,9 32,4 -13,1 19,3 UK
Table 3-4 High life expectancy scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions
Public pensions, contributions / gross pensions Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE CZ 105 108 108 104 98 91 71 61 -14 -30 -44 DK DE 68 69 66 68 67 68 69 68 0 1 0 EE 98 97 109 118 124 130 137 143 32 12 44 GR ES FR 100 99 97 93 91 88 84 84 -12 -5 -16 IE 76 65 57 51 46 42 35 29 -34 -13 -47 IT 72 74 75 74 72 68 65 71 -4 3 0 CY LV 104 124 124 115 103 96 90 95 -8 -2 -9 LT 94 94 91 83 75 71 69 65 -23 -6 -29 LU HU 74 61 58 53 51 50 43 40 -25 -10 -34 MT 95 76 64 56 51 50 47 44 -45 -6 -51 NL 88 84 77 71 66 60 56 57 -28 -3 -31 AT 67 71 71 69 64 61 62 68 -6 7 1 PL 55 70 82 83 84 87 92 98 32 12 43 PT 95 88 78 68 63 58 48 43 -37 -15 -51 SI 85 92 91 88 83 77 67 61 -8 -16 -24 SK 90 75 74 68 63 60 54 47 -30 -13 -43 FI 85 81 81 80 80 80 81 82 -6 2 -4 SE UK 87 89 90 89 84 79 74 71 -8 -7 -15
EU15 1) 81 82 80 79 76 73 71 71 -7 -2 -9 EU10 1) 71 77 83 80 78 77 72 69 6 -8 -2 EU12 1) 80 81 79 77 75 73 70 71 -7 -1 -8 EU25 1) 80 81 80 79 76 74 71 71 -6 -3 -9
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided information
Table 3-5 Higher employment rate scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
P u blic p en s ion s , g ro ss as % o f G D P C h an g e C h an g e C h an g e C ou n try 2 0 04 2 0 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 40 20 50 2 00 4 -2 03 0 2 03 0 -2 05 0 2 00 4 -2 05 0
B E 1 0,4 1 0,4 1 1,0 1 2,0 1 3,3 1 4,5 1 5 ,6 1 5 ,4 4,1 0,9 4,9 C Z 8 ,5 8 ,2 8 ,1 8 ,3 8 ,8 9 ,4 1 2 ,0 1 3 ,8 0,9 4,4 5,3 D K 9 ,5 1 0,1 1 0,8 1 1,3 1 2,0 1 2,8 1 3 ,5 1 2 ,8 3,3 0,0 3,3 D E 1 1,4 1 0,4 1 0,4 1 0,9 1 1,5 1 2,2 1 2 ,7 1 3 ,0 0,8 0,8 1,7 E E 6 ,6 6 ,8 5 ,9 5 ,4 5 ,1 4 ,7 4 ,4 4,2 -1,9 -0,5 -2,4 G R E S 8 ,6 8 ,9 8 ,8 9 ,3 1 0,3 1 1,8 1 5 ,1 1 5 ,6 3,2 3,8 7,1 FR 1 2,8 1 2,9 1 3,1 1 3,6 1 3,9 1 4,2 1 4 ,9 1 4 ,7 1,4 0,5 1,9 IE 4 ,7 5 ,2 5 ,9 6 ,5 7 ,2 7 ,8 9 ,3 1 1 ,1 3,1 3,2 6,3 IT 1 4,2 1 3,9 1 3,7 1 3,9 1 4,3 1 4,9 1 5 ,8 1 4 ,7 0,7 -0,3 0,4 C Y 6 ,9 7 ,9 8 ,8 9 ,8 1 0,8 1 2,1 1 4 ,9 1 9 ,7 5,2 7,6 1 2 ,8 L V 6 ,8 4 ,9 4 ,6 4 ,9 5 ,3 5 ,6 5 ,9 5,6 -1,2 -0,1 -1,3 LT 7 ,0 6 ,6 6 ,6 7 ,0 7 ,6 7 ,9 8 ,2 8,6 1,0 0,6 1,6 L U H U 1 0,4 1 1,0 1 1,3 1 2,2 1 2,7 1 3,0 1 5 ,4 1 6 ,4 2,6 3,4 6,0 M T 7 ,4 8 ,7 9 ,7 1 0,1 9 ,9 9 ,1 7 ,8 7,0 1,6 -2,1 -0,5 N L 7 ,7 7 ,6 8 ,3 8 ,9 9 ,7 1 0,6 1 1 ,6 1 1 ,1 2,9 0,5 3,4 A T 1 3,4 1 2,8 1 2,6 1 2,7 1 3,4 1 3,8 1 3 ,2 1 2 ,0 0,4 -1,8 -1,4 P L 1 3,9 1 1,3 9 ,7 9 ,6 9 ,4 9 ,1 8 ,5 7,9 -4,9 -1,2 -6,1 P T 1 1,1 1 1,8 1 2,5 1 4,0 1 4,9 1 5,8 1 8 ,7 2 0 ,6 4,8 4,8 9,5 S I 1 1,0 1 1,0 1 1,4 1 2,1 1 3,0 1 4,1 1 6 ,4 1 7 ,8 3,1 3,8 6,9 S K 7 ,2 6 ,7 6 ,5 6 ,9 7 ,3 7 ,6 8 ,2 8,9 0,4 1,3 1,7 F I 1 0,7 1 1,2 1 1,9 1 2,8 1 3,5 1 3,9 1 3 ,8 1 3 ,8 3,3 -0,2 3,1 S E 1 0,6 1 0,1 1 0,2 1 0,3 1 0,6 1 1,0 1 1 ,5 1 1 ,2 0,4 0,2 0,6 U K 6 ,6 6 ,6 6 ,7 6 ,8 7 ,2 7 ,8 8 ,3 8,5 1,2 0,7 1,9
E U 15 1 ) 1 0,6 1 0,3 1 0,4 1 0,7 1 1,3 1 2,0 1 2 ,8 1 2 ,8 1,4 0,8 2,2 E U 10 1 ) 1 0,9 9 ,8 9 ,1 9 ,4 9 ,5 9 ,7 1 0 ,4 1 0 ,9 -1,2 1,2 0,0 E U 12 1 ) 1 1,5 1 1,2 1 1,3 1 1,7 1 2,4 1 3,1 1 4 ,1 1 4 ,0 1,5 0,9 2,5 E U 25 1 ) 1 0,6 1 0,3 1 0,3 1 0,7 1 1,2 1 1,8 1 2 ,7 1 2 ,7 1,2 0,8 2,0
1 ) exclud in g c ou n trie s w hic h h a ve n ot provid ed d ata
Table 3-6 Higher employment rate scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Total pension expenditure, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,0 12,0 13,3 14,5 15,6 15,4 4,1 0,9 4,9 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,1 8,3 8,8 9,4 12,0 13,8 0,9 4,4 5,3 DK DE 11,4 10,4 10,4 10,9 11,5 12,2 12,7 13,0 0,8 0,8 1,7 EE 6,6 6,8 6,0 5,6 5,4 5,3 5,6 6,6 -1,4 1,3 -0,1 GR ES 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,3 10,3 11,8 15,1 15,6 3,2 3,8 7,1 FR 12,8 12,9 13,1 13,6 13,9 14,2 14,9 14,7 1,4 0,5 1,9 IE IT 14,2 13,9 13,7 13,9 14,3 14,9 15,8 14,7 0,7 -0,3 0,4 CY 6,9 7,9 8,8 9,8 10,8 12,1 14,9 19,7 5,2 7,6 12,8 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 5,0 5,5 6,0 7,0 8,2 -0,8 2,2 1,4 LT 7,0 6,6 6,6 7,1 7,8 8,3 9,2 10,4 1,4 2,1 3,4 LU HU 10,4 11,0 11,3 12,3 12,9 13,5 17,0 19,5 3,1 6,0 9,1 MT 7,4 8,7 9,7 10,1 9,9 9,1 7,8 7,0 1,6 -2,1 -0,5 NL 12,4 12,3 13,5 14,7 16,3 18,3 20,5 19,9 5,9 1,6 7,5 AT 13,4 12,8 12,6 12,7 13,4 13,8 13,2 12,0 0,4 -1,8 -1,4 PL 13,9 11,3 9,7 9,7 9,6 9,3 9,2 9,2 -4,6 -0,2 -4,8 PT 11,1 11,8 12,5 14,0 14,9 15,8 18,7 20,6 4,8 4,8 9,5 SI 11,0 11,0 11,4 12,1 13,0 14,1 16,4 17,8 3,1 3,8 6,9 SK 7,2 6,7 6,6 7,2 7,7 8,3 9,6 11,2 1,1 2,9 4,0 FI 10,7 11,2 11,9 12,8 13,5 13,9 13,8 13,8 3,3 -0,2 3,1 SE 12,9 12,4 12,7 12,9 13,3 13,8 14,4 13,8 0,9 -0,1 0,8 UK
EU15 1) 12,0 11,7 11,8 12,3 13,0 13,7 14,8 14,7 1,7 0,9 2,7 EU10 1) 10,9 9,8 9,1 9,5 9,7 10,0 11,2 12,3 -1,0 2,4 1,4 EU12 1) 12,0 11,7 11,8 12,3 12,9 13,7 14,9 14,7 1,8 1,0 2,7 EU25 1) 11,9 11,6 11,6 12,1 12,7 13,4 14,5 14,5 1,5 1,1 2,5
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-7 Higher employment rate scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
All pensions, assets as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 4,4 7,3 13,5 16,5 13,9 2,5 -1,9 CZ 0,3 3,5 7,0 10,3 11,7 10,5 10,2 DK DE 0,1 0,4 0,8 EE 2,8 9,3 15,9 26,6 39,4 52,7 80,2 105,5 49,9 52,8 102,7 GR ES FR 1,2 2,0 2,9 4,0 3,4 2,8 1,5 0,0 1,6 -2,8 -1,2 IE IT CY 39,3 40,0 40,5 39,0 34,4 26,2 2,7 -13,1 LV 0,3 13,0 26,0 38,1 48,4 57,6 69,0 71,8 57,3 14,2 71,4 LT 0,3 4,3 8,6 14,0 20,8 28,1 41,6 52,9 27,7 24,8 52,6 LU HU 4,0 13,2 21,9 31,5 41,0 49,9 67,6 73,7 45,9 23,8 69,7 MT NL 135,5 160,1 176,3 194,4 213,6 229,7 241,5 244,7 94,1 15,0 109,2 AT PL 7,1 15,9 24,1 33,5 42,5 51,0 69,6 84,5 44,0 33,5 77,5 PT 4,3 4,4 0,3 SI SK 7,0 12,8 19,0 25,2 31,6 45,9 58,3 31,6 26,6 58,3 FI 52,4 59,3 62,9 66,0 68,4 70,3 71,8 73,5 17,9 3,2 21,1 SE 38,6 53,1 60,3 65,8 69,4 72,1 68,1 61,4 33,5 -10,8 22,8 UK
Table 3-8 Higher employment rate scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions
Public pensions, contributions / gross pensions Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE CZ 105 108 109 106 100 93 73 64 -11 -30 -41 DK DE 68 69 66 67 68 68 68 68 0 0 0 EE 98 97 110 119 126 133 140 143 34 10 44 GR ES FR 100 100 98 95 92 90 87 88 -9 -3 -12 IE 76 65 57 52 47 43 36 30 -34 -12 -46 IT 72 74 75 75 73 69 66 73 -3 4 1 CY 80 82 80 73 67 60 49 36 -21 -24 -45 LV 104 124 125 116 104 97 92 98 -7 1 -6 LT 97 96 94 87 78 75 75 72 -22 -4 -26 LU HU 74 62 59 54 52 50 44 41 -24 -9 -33 MT 96 77 66 58 54 53 51 48 -43 -5 -47 NL 88 84 78 72 67 62 58 60 -26 -2 -28 AT 67 71 72 70 65 63 65 71 -4 9 5 PL 55 70 82 83 84 87 93 100 32 13 45 PT 95 88 79 69 64 59 49 45 -35 -14 -50 SI 85 92 92 87 82 76 65 59 -9 -17 -25 SK 90 76 76 69 65 62 57 50 -28 -12 -40 FI 85 81 82 81 80 80 82 82 -5 2 -3 SE 72 74 72 71 69 67 63 65 -6 -2 -8 UK 87 90 92 91 86 81 77 74 -6 -7 -13
EU15 1) 80 82 81 79 77 74 72 73 -6 -2 -8 EU10 1) 71 78 83 81 79 77 72 68 6 -9 -3 EU12 1) 80 81 79 78 76 74 71 73 -6 -1 -7 EU25 1) 80 82 81 79 77 75 72 72 -5 -2 -7
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-9 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
P u blic p en s ion s , g ro ss as % o f G D P C h an g e C h an g e C h an g e C ou n try 2 0 04 2 0 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 40 20 50 2 00 4 -2 03 0 2 03 0 -2 05 0 2 00 4 -2 05 0
B E 1 0,4 1 0,4 1 1,0 1 1,9 1 3,2 1 4,4 1 5 ,5 1 5 ,3 4,0 0,9 4,9 C Z 8 ,5 8 ,2 8 ,1 8 ,3 8 ,8 9 ,4 1 1 ,9 1 3 ,7 0,9 4,3 5,2 D K 9 ,5 1 0,0 1 0,6 1 1,1 1 1,6 1 2,4 1 3 ,1 1 2 ,5 3,0 0,0 3,0 D E 1 1,4 1 0,4 1 0,5 1 0,9 1 1,5 1 2,2 1 2 ,7 1 3 ,0 0,8 0,9 1,7 E E 7 ,4 7 ,6 6 ,7 6 ,0 5 ,6 5 ,2 4 ,8 4,6 -2,2 -0,6 -2,8 G R E S 8 ,6 8 ,8 8 ,8 9 ,2 1 0,3 1 1,7 1 5 ,0 1 5 ,6 3,1 3,8 7,0 FR 1 2,8 1 2,8 1 2,9 1 3,3 1 3,6 1 3,9 1 4 ,6 1 4 ,4 1,1 0,5 1,6 IE 4 ,7 5 ,2 5 ,9 6 ,5 7 ,2 7 ,8 9 ,3 1 1 ,0 3,1 3,2 6,3 IT 1 4,2 1 3,9 1 3,7 1 3,8 1 4,2 1 4,9 1 6 ,0 1 4 ,8 0,7 -0,1 0,6 C Y L V 6 ,8 4 ,9 4 ,6 4 ,9 5 ,3 5 ,6 5 ,9 5,5 -1,2 -0,1 -1,3 LT 7 ,0 6 ,6 6 ,5 7 ,0 7 ,5 7 ,9 8 ,1 8,5 0,9 0,6 1,5 L U H U 1 0,4 1 0,9 1 1,2 1 1,9 1 2,3 1 2,7 1 5 ,0 1 6 ,0 2,3 3,3 5,6 M T 7 ,4 8 ,8 9 ,7 1 0,2 1 0,0 9 ,1 7 ,9 7,1 1,7 -2,1 -0,4 N L 7 ,7 7 ,6 8 ,3 8 ,9 9 ,6 1 0,6 1 1 ,6 1 1 ,1 2,8 0,6 3,4 A T 1 3,4 1 2,8 1 2,6 1 2,6 1 3,2 1 3,6 1 3 ,1 1 1 ,8 0,2 -1,8 -1,6 P L 1 3,9 1 1,3 9 ,7 9 ,7 9 ,5 9 ,2 8 ,6 8,0 -4,7 -1,2 -5,9 P T 1 1,1 1 1,9 1 2,6 1 4,0 1 4,8 1 5,8 1 8 ,6 2 0 ,5 4,7 4,7 9,5 S I 1 1,0 1 1,0 1 1,2 1 1,8 1 2,6 1 3,6 1 5 ,9 1 7 ,4 2,6 3,8 6,4 S K 7 ,2 6 ,7 6 ,5 6 ,9 7 ,3 7 ,6 8 ,2 9,0 0,4 1,4 1,8 F I 1 0,7 1 1,1 1 1,8 1 2,6 1 3,2 1 3,7 1 3 ,6 1 3 ,5 3,0 -0,2 2,8 S E U K 6 ,6 6 ,6 6 ,7 6 ,8 7 ,2 7 ,8 8 ,3 8,5 1,2 0,7 1,9
E U 15 1 ) 1 0,6 1 0,3 1 0,4 1 0,7 1 1,2 1 1,9 1 2 ,8 1 2 ,8 1,3 0,8 2,2 E U 10 1 ) 1 1,0 9 ,8 9 ,1 9 ,4 9 ,5 9 ,6 1 0 ,2 1 0 ,6 -1,4 1,0 -0,4 E U 12 1 ) 1 1,5 1 1,2 1 1,3 1 1,7 1 2,3 1 3,0 1 4 ,0 1 4 ,0 1,4 1,0 2,4 E U 25 1 ) 1 0,6 1 0,3 1 0,3 1 0,6 1 1,1 1 1,8 1 2 ,7 1 2 ,6 1,2 0,9 2,0
1 ) exclud in g c ou n trie s w hic h h a ve n ot provid ed d ata
Table 3-10 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Total pension expenditure, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,0 11,9 13,2 14,4 15,5 15,3 4,0 0,9 4,9 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,1 8,3 8,8 9,4 11,9 13,7 0,9 4,3 5,2 DK DE 11,4 10,4 10,5 10,9 11,5 12,2 12,7 13,0 0,8 0,9 1,7 EE 7,4 7,6 6,7 6,2 6,0 5,8 6,1 6,9 -1,6 1,2 -0,5 GR ES 8,6 8,8 8,8 9,2 10,3 11,7 15,0 15,6 3,1 3,8 7,0 FR 12,8 12,8 12,9 13,3 13,6 13,9 14,6 14,4 1,1 0,5 1,6 IE IT 14,2 13,9 13,7 13,8 14,2 14,9 16,0 14,8 0,7 -0,1 0,6 CY LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 5,0 5,5 6,0 7,0 8,2 -0,8 2,2 1,4 LT 7,0 6,6 6,6 7,1 7,8 8,3 9,2 10,2 1,4 1,9 3,3 LU HU 10,4 10,9 11,2 12,0 12,6 13,2 16,6 19,0 2,8 5,8 8,6 MT 7,4 8,8 9,7 10,2 10,0 9,1 7,9 7,1 1,7 -2,1 -0,4 NL 12,4 12,3 13,5 14,7 16,3 18,3 20,6 19,9 5,9 1,6 7,6 AT 13,4 12,8 12,6 12,6 13,2 13,6 13,1 11,8 0,2 -1,8 -1,6 PL 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,8 9,7 9,4 9,3 9,3 -4,4 -0,1 -4,6 PT 11,1 11,9 12,6 14,0 14,8 15,8 18,6 20,5 4,7 4,7 9,5 SI 11,0 11,0 11,2 11,8 12,6 13,6 15,9 17,4 2,6 3,8 6,4 SK 7,2 6,7 6,6 7,1 7,7 8,3 9,6 11,3 1,1 3,0 4,1 FI 10,7 11,1 11,8 12,6 13,2 13,7 13,6 13,5 3,0 -0,2 2,8 SE UK
EU15 1) 12,0 11,6 11,8 12,2 12,8 13,6 14,8 14,7 1,7 1,0 2,7 EU10 1) 11,0 9,8 9,2 9,4 9,7 9,9 11,0 12,0 -1,1 2,2 1,0 EU12 1) 12,0 11,6 11,8 12,2 12,8 13,6 14,8 14,7 1,7 1,0 2,7 EU25 1) 11,9 11,5 11,6 12,0 12,6 13,3 14,5 14,4 1,4 1,1 2,5
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-11 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
All pensions, assets as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 4,4 7,3 13,5 16,5 14,1 3,1 -1,4 CZ 0,3 3,5 6,9 10,0 11,4 10,2 9,9 DK DE 0,1 0,4 0,8 EE 2,8 9,3 15,8 25,8 38,1 51,2 78,0 102,6 48,4 51,4 99,8 GR ES FR 1,2 2,0 2,9 4,0 3,4 2,8 1,5 0,0 1,6 -2,8 -1,2 IE IT CY 39,3 42,1 44,0 42,6 35,0 17,3 -22,0 LV 0,3 12,9 25,9 37,8 47,9 57,0 68,2 70,7 56,7 13,7 70,3 LT 0,3 4,3 8,6 14,0 20,7 27,9 41,4 52,5 27,6 24,6 52,2 LU HU 4,0 13,2 21,8 31,2 40,6 49,2 66,6 73,0 45,3 23,8 69,0 MT NL 135,5 160,3 176,9 194,6 213,4 229,7 241,7 244,3 94,2 14,6 108,8 AT PL 7,1 16,1 24,4 33,9 43,1 51,8 70,4 85,1 44,7 33,4 78,0 PT 4,3 4,0 SI SK 7,0 12,7 18,9 25,1 31,5 45,7 58,1 31,5 26,6 58,1 FI 52,4 59,0 62,5 65,1 67,1 68,9 70,2 71,6 16,5 2,7 19,2 SE UK
Table 3-12 Higher employment rate of older workers scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions
Public pensions, contributions / gross pensions Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE CZ 105 108 109 106 100 94 74 64 -11 -30 -41 DK DE 68 70 66 67 67 68 68 68 0 0 0 EE 88 86 97 106 112 118 125 129 30 11 41 GR ES FR 100 100 99 96 95 93 88 89 -7 -3 -11 IE 76 65 57 52 47 43 36 30 -34 -12 -46 IT 72 74 76 75 74 69 66 72 -2 2 0 CY LV 104 124 125 115 104 97 91 97 -7 1 -7 LT 97 96 95 87 78 76 75 72 -22 -3 -25 LU HU 74 62 60 55 53 52 45 42 -22 -10 -32 MT 96 77 66 58 54 53 51 48 -43 -5 -48 NL 88 84 78 72 67 62 58 60 -26 -2 -28 AT 67 71 72 70 66 63 65 73 -3 9 6 PL 55 71 83 84 85 87 93 100 32 13 45 PT 95 88 78 69 64 59 49 45 -35 -14 -50 SI 85 92 93 90 85 79 67 61 -6 -18 -23 SK 90 76 76 70 65 62 57 49 -28 -13 -41 FI 85 81 81 81 80 80 82 82 -5 2 -3 SE UK 87 90 92 91 86 81 76 74 -6 -7 -13
EU15 1) 81 82 81 80 78 75 72 73 -5 -2 -7 EU10 1) 71 78 84 82 80 79 74 71 8 -8 0 EU12 1) 80 81 79 78 76 74 72 73 -5 -1 -6 EU25 1) 80 82 81 80 78 75 73 73 -5 -2 -7
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-13 Higher labour productivity scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
P u blic p en sion s, g ro ss as % o f G D P C hange C hange C hange C ountry 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2 004-2050
B E 10,4 10,4 11,1 12,1 13,3 14,5 15,4 15,2 4,1 0,7 4,7 C Z 8,5 8,2 8,1 8,3 8,7 9,3 11,9 13,7 0,9 4,3 5,2 D K 9,5 10,1 10,8 11,3 12,0 12,8 13,5 12,8 3,3 0,0 3,3 D E 11,4 10,5 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 E E 6,7 6,8 5,9 5,3 5,0 4,6 4,2 4,0 -2,1 -0,6 -2,7 G R E S 8,6 8,9 8,7 9,1 10,1 11,5 14,5 14,8 2,9 3,4 6,3 FR 12,8 13,0 13,1 13,5 13,8 14,0 14,6 14,4 1,2 0,4 1,6 IE 4,7 5,2 5,9 6,5 7,3 7,9 9,4 11,2 3,2 3,3 6,4 IT 14,2 14,0 13,7 13,7 14,0 14,6 15,4 14,1 0,4 -0,5 -0,1 C Y 6,9 8,0 8,8 9,7 10,6 11,7 14,1 18,4 4,9 6,6 11,5 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 4,8 5,3 5,5 5,8 5,4 -1,3 -0,1 -1,4 LT 7,0 6,6 6,6 7,0 7,6 7,9 8,1 8,5 1,0 0,6 1,5 LU 10,0 9,8 10,8 11,8 13,6 14,9 16,9 17,3 4,9 2,4 7,3 H U 10,4 11,1 11,5 12,4 12,8 13,2 15,7 16,7 2,8 3,5 6,3 M T 7,5 8,8 9,7 10,1 9,7 8,8 7,4 6,4 1,3 -2,4 -1,1 N L 7,7 7,7 8,3 9,0 9,7 10,7 11,6 11,2 2,9 0,5 3,4 A T 13,4 12,8 12,6 12,6 13,2 13,5 12,8 11,4 0,2 -2,1 -1,9 P L 13,9 11,3 9,7 9,5 9,2 8,9 8,2 7,6 -5,0 -1,3 -6,3 P T 11,1 11,9 12,5 13,9 14,6 15,4 17,9 19,6 4,3 4,1 8,5 S I 11,0 11,1 11,5 12,3 13,2 14,3 16,7 18,1 3,3 3,8 7,2 S K 7,2 6,7 6,5 6,9 7,3 7,6 8,1 8,8 0,4 1,2 1,6 F I 10,7 11,2 12,0 12,7 13,3 13,6 13,4 13,3 3,0 -0,3 2,6 S E 10,6 10,1 10,3 10,3 10,6 10,9 11,4 11,0 0,3 0,1 0,4 U K 6,6 6,6 6,7 6,7 7,1 7,7 8,0 8,2 1,0 0,6 1,6
E U 15 1 ) 10,6 10,4 10,4 10,7 11,2 11,9 12,6 12,5 1,3 0,7 1,9 E U 10 1 ) 10,9 9,8 9,2 9,4 9,5 9,6 10,3 10,8 -1,3 1,2 -0,1 E U 12 1 ) 11,5 11,3 11,3 11,7 12,3 13,0 13,9 13,8 1,4 0,8 2,2 E U 25 1 ) 10,6 10,3 10,3 10,6 11,1 11,7 12,5 12,4 1,1 0,7 1,8
-
1)excluding G reece
Table 3-14 Higher labour productivity scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Total pension expenditure, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,1 12,1 13,3 14,5 15,4 15,2 4,1 0,7 4,7 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,1 8,3 8,7 9,3 11,9 13,6 0,9 4,3 5,2 DK DE 11,4 10,5 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 EE 6,7 6,8 5,9 5,5 5,3 5,1 5,4 6,2 -1,5 1,1 -0,5 GR ES 8,6 8,9 8,7 9,1 10,1 11,5 14,5 14,8 2,9 3,4 6,3 FR 12,8 13,0 13,1 13,5 13,8 14,0 14,6 14,4 1,2 0,4 1,6 IE IT 14,2 14,0 13,7 13,7 14,0 14,6 15,4 14,1 0,4 -0,5 -0,1 CY 6,9 8,0 8,8 9,7 10,6 11,7 14,1 18,4 4,9 6,6 11,5 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 4,9 5,5 5,9 6,9 8,0 -0,9 2,1 1,2 LT 7,0 6,6 6,6 7,1 7,8 8,3 9,1 10,3 1,4 2,0 3,3 LU 10,0 9,8 10,8 11,8 13,6 14,9 16,9 17,3 4,9 2,4 7,3 HU 10,4 11,1 11,5 12,5 13,1 13,7 17,2 19,6 3,3 6,0 9,2 MT 7,5 8,8 9,7 10,1 9,7 8,8 7,4 6,4 1,3 -2,4 -1,1 NL 12,4 12,3 13,6 14,7 16,3 18,2 20,4 19,6 5,9 1,4 7,3 AT 13,4 12,8 12,6 12,6 13,2 13,5 12,8 11,4 0,2 -2,1 -1,9 PL 13,9 11,3 9,7 9,6 9,4 9,1 8,9 8,8 -4,8 -0,3 -5,1 PT 11,1 11,9 12,5 13,9 14,6 15,4 17,9 19,6 4,3 4,1 8,5 SI 11,0 11,1 11,5 12,3 13,2 14,3 16,7 18,1 3,3 3,8 7,2 SK 7,2 6,7 6,7 7,2 7,7 8,3 9,5 10,9 1,1 2,7 3,7 FI 10,7 11,2 12,0 12,7 13,3 13,6 13,4 13,3 3,0 -0,3 2,6 SE 12,9 12,4 12,7 12,8 13,1 13,7 14,1 13,5 0,7 -0,2 0,5 UK
EU15 1) 12,0 11,7 11,8 12,3 12,9 13,6 14,6 14,4 1,6 0,8 2,4 EU10 1) 10,9 9,8 9,2 9,4 9,7 9,9 11,0 12,1 -1,0 2,2 1,2 EU12 1) 12,0 11,7 11,8 12,2 12,9 13,6 14,6 14,4 1,6 0,8 2,5 EU25 1) 11,9 11,6 11,6 12,0 12,6 13,3 14,3 14,2 1,3 0,9 2,3
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-15 Higher labour productivity scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
All pensions, assets as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 4,4 7,3 13,4 16,2 13,5 2,4 -2,1 CZ 0,3 3,4 6,7 9,8 11,2 10,1 9,8 DK DE 0,1 0,4 0,8 EE 2,9 9,3 15,7 25,8 38,3 51,3 77,9 102,3 48,4 51,0 99,4 GR : : : : : : : : ES FR 1,2 2,0 2,9 4,0 3,4 2,8 1,5 0,0 1,6 -2,8 -1,2 IE IT CY 39,3 39,5 39,1 36,8 32,1 24,2 3,4 -15,1 LV 0,3 12,9 25,8 37,8 47,9 56,9 68,1 71,4 56,5 14,5 71,0 LT 0,3 4,3 8,6 14,0 20,8 28,1 41,6 53,0 27,8 24,9 52,7 LU 23,6 31,6 37,2 38,9 32,4 17,4 -6,3 HU 4,0 13,2 21,8 31,0 40,2 48,6 65,2 70,5 44,6 22,0 66,6 MT NL 135,5 160,5 176,1 192,2 210,1 225,4 236,3 239,3 89,9 13,9 103,7 AT PL 7,1 15,8 23,8 32,7 41,3 49,2 66,5 80,4 42,1 31,2 73,4 PT 4,3 4,0 SI SK 7,0 12,7 18,7 24,6 30,8 44,2 55,8 30,8 25,0 55,8 FI 52,4 59,3 62,5 64,6 66,1 67,2 67,6 68,4 14,8 1,2 16,0 SE 38,6 53,4 60,2 65,0 68,1 70,3 65,9 59,3 31,7 -11,1 20,7 UK
Table 3-16 Higher labour productivity scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions
P u blic p en s ion s , c on tribu tio n s / gros s pe ns io ns C h an g e C h an g e C h an g e C ou n try 2 0 04 2 0 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 40 20 50 2 00 4 -2 03 0 2 03 0 -2 05 0 2 00 4 -2 05 0
B E C Z 10 5 10 8 10 9 10 6 10 1 9 4 7 4 6 4 -1 1 -30 -41 D K D E 6 8 6 9 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 6 8 6 8 0 0 0 E E 9 8 9 7 10 9 12 0 12 7 13 5 14 4 14 9 3 6 1 4 5 0 G R E S FR 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 5 9 3 9 2 8 8 9 0 -8 -2 -10 IE 7 6 6 5 5 7 5 2 4 6 4 2 3 6 3 0 -3 4 -12 -46 IT 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 6 7 4 7 0 6 8 7 5 -1 5 4 C Y 8 0 8 0 7 8 7 3 6 7 6 1 5 1 3 8 -2 0 -22 -42 L V 10 4 12 4 12 5 11 7 10 5 9 8 9 3 10 0 -5 1 -4 LT 9 7 9 6 9 4 8 7 7 8 7 6 7 5 7 3 -2 2 -3 -25 L U 9 9 10 2 9 3 8 6 7 4 6 7 5 9 5 8 -3 1 -9 -41 H U 7 4 6 1 5 8 5 3 5 1 5 0 4 3 4 0 -2 5 -10 -34 M T 9 6 7 7 6 6 5 8 5 3 5 2 5 0 4 7 -4 4 -5 -48 N L 8 8 8 4 7 7 7 1 6 6 6 1 5 7 5 9 -2 7 -2 -29 A T 6 7 7 1 7 3 7 2 6 8 6 5 6 8 7 6 -2 1 1 9 P L 5 5 7 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 9 9 6 10 4 3 4 1 5 4 9 P T 9 5 8 8 7 8 6 9 6 5 6 0 5 1 4 7 -3 4 -13 -47 S I 8 5 9 1 9 0 8 6 8 0 7 4 6 3 5 8 -1 0 -16 -27 S K 9 0 7 5 7 5 6 9 6 5 6 2 5 7 5 0 -2 8 -12 -40 F I 8 5 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 0 8 0 8 2 8 3 -5 3 -2 S E 7 2 7 4 7 2 7 2 7 0 6 7 6 4 6 6 -5 -1 -6 U K 8 7 9 0 9 2 9 2 8 8 8 2 7 8 7 5 -5 -7 -11
E U 15 1 ) 8 0 8 2 8 1 8 0 7 8 7 5 7 3 7 4 -5 -1 -6 E U 10 1 ) 7 1 7 7 8 3 8 1 7 9 7 8 7 3 6 9 7 -9 -2 E U 12 1 ) 8 0 8 1 7 9 7 8 7 6 7 4 7 2 7 4 -5 0 -6 E U 25 1 ) 8 0 8 1 8 1 8 0 7 8 7 5 7 3 7 4 -4 -2 -6
38
Table 3-17 Lower labour productivity scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Public pensions, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,1 12,2 13,5 14,8 16,0 15,9 4,4 1,1 5,5 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,2 8,5 9,0 9,6 12,3 14,2 1,2 4,5 5,7 DK 9,5 10,1 10,8 11,3 12,0 12,8 13,5 12,8 3,3 0,0 3,3 DE 11,4 10,4 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 EE 6,7 6,8 6,0 5,4 5,1 4,8 4,5 4,4 -1,9 -0,4 -2,3 GR ES 8,6 8,9 8,9 9,5 10,6 12,3 15,9 16,7 3,7 4,4 8,1 FR 12,8 13,0 13,3 13,9 14,3 14,7 15,4 15,3 1,9 0,6 2,5 IE 4,7 5,2 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,9 9,3 11,1 3,1 3,3 6,4 IT 14,2 14,0 13,9 14,2 14,7 15,5 16,5 15,2 1,2 -0,2 1,0 CY 6,9 8,0 8,9 10,0 11,1 12,6 15,8 21,4 5,7 8,8 14,5 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 4,9 5,4 5,7 6,0 5,7 -1,1 0,0 -1,1 LT 7,0 6,6 6,6 7,0 7,6 8,0 8,3 8,7 1,0 0,8 1,8 LU 10,0 9,8 10,9 12,0 13,8 15,1 17,1 17,5 5,1 2,4 7,5 HU 10,4 11,1 11,6 12,6 13,2 13,6 16,2 17,3 3,2 3,7 6,9 MT 7,4 8,8 9,8 10,4 10,3 9,6 8,5 7,7 2,1 -1,8 0,3 NL 7,7 7,6 8,3 8,9 9,7 10,7 11,7 11,3 2,9 0,6 3,5 AT 13,4 12,8 12,8 13,1 13,9 14,5 14,2 13,2 1,1 -1,3 -0,2 PL 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,8 9,7 9,4 8,9 8,3 -4,6 -1,1 -5,7 PT 11,1 11,9 12,7 14,4 15,4 16,6 19,8 22,1 5,5 5,6 11,1 SI 11,0 11,1 11,5 12,3 13,2 14,3 16,7 18,1 3,3 3,8 7,1 SK 7,2 6,7 6,6 7,0 7,4 7,7 8,4 9,2 0,6 1,4 2,0 FI 10,7 11,2 12,1 13,1 13,8 14,4 14,3 14,2 3,7 -0,2 3,5 SE 10,6 10,1 10,4 10,5 10,8 11,3 11,8 11,5 0,6 0,3 0,9 UK 6,6 6,6 6,7 7,0 7,5 8,1 8,7 8,9 1,5 0,8 2,3
EU15 1) 10,6 10,4 10,5 10,9 11,6 12,3 13,3 13,2 1,7 0,9 2,6 EU10 1) 10,9 9,8 9,3 9,6 9,8 10,0 10,8 11,4 -0,9 1,4 0,5 EU12 1) 11,5 11,3 11,4 12,0 12,6 13,4 14,6 14,5 1,9 1,1 3,0 EU25 1) 10,6 10,3 10,4 10,9 11,5 12,2 13,1 13,1 1,5 1,0 2,5
-
1)excluding Greece
Table 3-18 Lower labour productivity scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Total pension expenditure, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,1 12,2 13,5 14,8 16,0 15,9 4,4 1,1 5,5 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,2 8,5 9,0 9,6 12,3 14,2 1,2 4,5 5,7 DK DE 11,4 10,4 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 EE 6,7 6,8 6,0 5,6 5,5 5,4 5,8 6,9 -1,3 1,5 0,2 GR ES 8,6 8,9 8,9 9,5 10,6 12,3 15,9 16,7 3,7 4,4 8,1 FR 12,8 13,0 13,3 13,9 14,3 14,7 15,4 15,3 1,9 0,6 2,5 IE IT 14,2 14,0 13,9 14,2 14,7 15,5 16,5 15,2 1,2 -0,2 1,0 CY 6,9 8,0 8,9 10,0 11,1 12,6 15,8 21,4 5,7 8,8 14,5 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 5,0 5,6 6,1 7,2 8,6 -0,7 2,5 1,8 LT 7,0 6,6 6,6 7,1 7,8 8,4 9,3 10,6 1,4 2,2 3,6 LU 10,0 9,8 10,9 12,0 13,8 15,1 17,1 17,5 5,1 2,4 7,5 HU 10,4 11,1 11,6 12,7 13,4 14,1 17,9 20,7 3,7 6,5 10,3 MT 7,4 8,8 9,8 10,4 10,3 9,6 8,5 7,7 2,1 -1,8 0,3 NL 12,4 12,3 13,6 14,8 16,5 18,6 20,9 20,3 6,2 1,7 7,9 AT 13,4 12,8 12,8 13,1 13,9 14,5 14,2 13,2 1,1 -1,3 -0,2 PL 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,9 9,8 9,6 9,6 9,7 -4,3 0,0 -4,3 PT 11,1 11,9 12,7 14,4 15,4 16,6 19,8 22,1 5,5 5,6 11,1 SI 11,0 11,1 11,5 12,3 13,2 14,3 16,7 18,1 3,3 3,8 7,1 SK 7,2 6,7 6,7 7,3 7,9 8,5 9,9 11,6 1,3 3,1 4,4 FI 10,7 11,2 12,1 13,1 13,8 14,4 14,3 14,2 3,7 -0,2 3,5 SE 12,9 12,4 12,9 13,1 13,5 14,2 14,9 14,3 1,3 0,1 1,3 UK
EU15 1) 12,0 11,7 11,9 12,5 13,3 14,1 15,3 15,2 2,1 1,1 3,2 EU10 1) 10,9 9,8 9,3 9,7 10,0 10,3 11,6 12,9 -0,6 2,6 2,0 EU12 1) 12,0 11,7 11,9 12,5 13,2 14,1 15,3 15,3 2,1 1,1 3,3 EU25 1) 11,9 11,6 11,8 12,3 13,0 13,8 15,0 15,0 1,8 1,2 3,1
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-19 Lower labour productivity scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
All pensions, assets as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 4,4 7,4 13,6 16,5 13,6 1,4 -3,0 CZ 0,3 3,4 6,6 9,2 9,9 7,5 7,2 DK DE 0,1 0,4 0,8 EE 2,8 9,3 15,9 25,4 37,7 50,6 76,9 100,6 47,8 50,1 97,8 GR ES FR 1,2 2,0 2,9 4,1 3,5 2,9 1,6 0,0 1,7 -2,9 -1,2 IE IT CY 39,3 39,5 39,6 37,4 32,1 22,6 -16,7 LV 0,3 12,9 26,0 38,3 48,7 58,1 69,7 72,4 57,8 14,3 72,1 LT 0,3 4,3 8,6 14,0 20,8 28,0 41,5 53,0 27,7 24,9 52,6 LU 23,6 31,7 37,6 39,6 33,4 18,3 -5,3 HU 4,0 13,2 22,1 31,9 41,8 51,1 69,7 76,0 47,1 24,9 72,0 MT NL 135,5 160,7 178,9 198,6 218,0 234,1 245,3 247,8 98,5 13,7 112,3 AT PL 7,1 15,8 24,1 33,7 43,0 51,9 71,5 87,6 44,8 35,7 80,5 PT 4,3 4,1 SI SK 7,0 12,8 19,2 25,6 32,4 47,4 60,6 32,4 28,3 60,6 FI 52,4 59,4 63,6 67,3 70,3 72,6 74,9 77,2 20,2 4,6 24,8 SE 38,6 53,5 61,1 67,2 71,6 74,9 71,3 63,7 36,3 -11,2 25,1 UK
Table 3-20 Lower labour productivity scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions
Public pensions, contributions / gross pensions Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE CZ 105 108 108 104 98 91 72 62 -14 -29 -43 DK DE 68 70 66 68 67 68 69 68 0 1 0 EE 98 96 108 116 122 128 133 135 29 7 37 GR ES FR 100 99 97 93 90 88 83 84 -12 -3 -16 IE 76 65 57 52 46 43 36 30 -34 -12 -46 IT 72 74 74 73 71 66 64 70 -5 3 -2 CY 80 80 77 71 64 56 46 33 -24 -24 -47 LV 104 124 124 114 102 95 89 95 -9 0 -9 LT 97 96 94 87 78 75 74 70 -23 -4 -27 LU 99 102 92 84 73 66 58 57 -32 -9 -41 HU 74 61 57 52 50 48 42 39 -26 -9 -35 MT 96 77 66 58 53 52 50 47 -43 -5 -48 NL 88 84 77 71 66 61 57 59 -27 -2 -29 AT 67 71 71 68 63 60 60 65 -7 5 -2 PL 55 70 81 81 82 84 89 95 29 11 40 PT 95 88 78 68 63 58 47 42 -37 -15 -52 SI 85 91 90 86 80 74 63 58 -10 -16 -27 SK 90 75 74 68 64 61 56 48 -29 -12 -42 FI 85 81 81 80 79 79 80 81 -6 2 -5 SE 72 74 72 71 69 66 62 64 -7 -2 -9 UK 87 89 90 89 84 78 74 71 -9 -7 -16
EU15 1) 80 82 80 78 75 73 70 71 -8 -2 -10 EU10 1) 71 77 82 79 76 75 69 65 4 -10 -6 EU12 1) 80 81 79 77 74 72 70 71 -8 -1 -9 EU25 1) 80 81 80 78 76 73 70 70 -7 -2 -10
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-21 Higher interest rate scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
P u blic p en sion s, g ro ss as % o f G D P C hange C hange C hange C ountry 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2 004-2050
B E 10,4 10,4 11,0 12,1 13,4 14,7 15,7 15,5 4,3 0,8 5,1 C Z 8,5 8,2 8,2 8,4 8,9 9,6 12,2 14,0 1,1 4,5 5,6 D K 9,5 10,1 10,8 11,3 12,0 12,8 13,5 12,8 3,3 0,0 3,3 D E 11,4 10,5 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 E E 6,7 6,8 6,0 5,4 5,1 4,7 4,4 4,2 -1,9 -0,5 -2,5 G R E S 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,3 10,4 11,8 15,2 15,7 3,3 3,9 7,1 FR 12,8 12,9 13,2 13,7 14,0 14,3 15,0 14,8 1,5 0,5 2,0 IE 4,7 5,2 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,9 9,3 11,1 3,1 3,2 6,4 IT 14,2 14,0 13,8 14,0 14,4 15,0 15,9 14,7 0,8 -0,4 0,4 C Y 6,9 8,0 8,8 9,9 10,8 12,2 15,0 19,8 5,3 7,6 12,9 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 4,9 5,3 5,6 5,9 5,6 -1,2 -0,1 -1,2 LT 6,7 6,6 6,6 7,0 7,6 7,9 8,2 8,6 1,2 0,7 1,8 LU 10,0 9,8 10,9 11,9 13,7 15,0 17,0 17,4 5,0 2,4 7,4 H U 10,4 11,1 11,6 12,5 13,0 13,5 16,0 17,1 3,1 3,7 6,7 M T 7,4 8,8 9,8 10,2 10,0 9,1 7,9 7,0 1,7 -2,1 -0,4 N L 7,7 7,6 8,3 9,0 9,7 10,7 11,7 11,2 2,9 0,6 3,5 A T 13,4 12,8 12,7 12,8 13,5 14,0 13,4 12,2 0,6 -1,7 -1,2 P L 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,7 9,5 9,2 8,7 8,0 -4,7 -1,2 -5,9 P T 11,1 11,9 12,6 14,1 15,0 16,0 18,8 20,8 4,9 4,8 9,7 S I 11,0 11,1 11,6 12,3 13,3 14,4 16,8 18,3 3,4 3,9 7,3 S K 7,2 6,7 6,6 7,0 7,3 7,7 8,2 9,0 0,5 1,3 1,8 F I 10,7 11,2 12,0 12,9 13,6 14,0 13,9 13,8 3,4 -0,2 3,2 S E 10,6 10,1 10,3 10,5 10,7 11,2 11,8 11,6 0,5 0,4 1,0 U K 6,6 6,6 6,7 6,9 7,3 7,9 8,4 8,6 1,3 0,7 2,0
E U 15 1 ) 10,6 10,4 10,5 10,8 11,4 12,1 12,9 12,9 1,5 0,8 2,3 E U 10 1 ) 10,9 9,8 9,2 9,5 9,7 9,8 10,6 11,2 -1,1 1,3 0,3 E U 12 1 ) 11,5 11,3 11,4 11,8 12,5 13,2 14,2 14,1 1,6 0,9 2,6 E U 25 1 ) 10,6 10,3 10,4 10,7 11,3 11,9 12,8 12,8 1,3 0,8 2,2
-
1)excluding G reece
Table 3-22 Higher interest rate scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Total pension expenditure, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,0 12,1 13,4 14,7 15,7 15,5 4,3 0,8 5,1 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,2 8,4 8,9 9,6 12,2 14,0 1,1 4,5 5,6 DK DE 11,4 10,5 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 EE 6,7 6,8 6,0 5,6 5,4 5,4 5,9 7,3 -1,3 1,9 0,6 GR ES 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,3 10,4 11,8 15,2 15,7 3,3 3,9 7,1 FR 12,8 12,9 13,2 13,7 14,0 14,3 15,0 14,8 1,5 0,5 2,0 IE IT 14,2 14,0 13,8 14,0 14,4 15,0 15,9 14,7 0,8 -0,4 0,4 CY 6,9 8,0 8,8 9,9 10,8 12,2 15,0 19,8 5,3 7,6 12,9 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 5,0 5,6 6,1 7,3 9,0 -0,7 3,0 2,2 LT 6,7 6,6 6,6 7,1 7,8 8,4 9,4 10,9 1,7 2,5 4,2 LU 10,0 9,8 10,9 11,9 13,7 15,0 17,0 17,4 5,0 2,4 7,4 HU 10,4 11,1 11,6 12,7 13,3 14,1 18,1 21,3 3,7 7,3 11,0 MT 7,4 8,8 9,8 10,2 10,0 9,1 7,9 7,0 1,7 -2,1 -0,4 NL 12,4 12,5 13,9 15,2 16,9 18,9 21,1 20,2 6,6 1,3 7,8 AT 13,4 12,8 12,7 12,8 13,5 14,0 13,4 12,2 0,6 -1,7 -1,2 PL 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,8 9,7 9,5 9,4 9,6 -4,4 0,1 -4,3 PT 11,1 11,9 12,6 14,1 15,0 16,0 18,8 20,8 4,9 4,8 9,7 SI 11,0 11,1 11,6 12,4 13,5 14,7 17,5 19,3 3,7 4,6 8,3 SK 7,2 6,7 6,7 7,3 7,8 8,5 10,0 11,9 1,3 3,4 4,7 FI 10,7 11,2 12,0 12,9 13,6 14,0 13,9 13,8 3,4 -0,2 3,2 SE 12,9 12,5 12,9 13,1 13,5 14,2 15,1 14,6 1,3 0,4 1,7 UK
EU15 1) 12,0 11,7 11,9 12,4 13,1 13,9 15,0 14,8 1,9 0,9 2,8 EU10 1) 10,9 9,8 9,3 9,6 9,9 10,2 11,6 13,0 -0,7 2,8 2,1 EU12 1) 12,0 11,7 11,9 12,4 13,1 13,9 15,0 14,8 1,9 1,0 2,9 EU25 1) 11,9 11,6 11,7 12,2 12,8 13,6 14,7 14,7 1,6 1,1 2,7
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided information
Table 3-23 Higher interest rate scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
All pensions, assets as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 4,4 7,5 14,2 17,9 16,2 5,4 1,0 CZ 0,3 3,6 7,2 10,6 12,4 11,4 11,1 DK DE 0,1 0,4 0,9 EE 2,8 9,4 16,5 26,8 40,3 54,7 84,6 111,9 51,9 57,2 109,1 GR ES FR 1,2 2,1 3,1 4,5 3,9 3,3 1,8 0,0 2,1 -3,3 -1,2 IE IT CY LV 0,3 13,1 26,6 39,8 51,6 62,8 78,7 83,5 62,4 20,7 83,2 LT 0,3 4,4 9,0 14,9 22,4 30,8 47,1 61,1 30,5 30,4 60,8 LU 23,6 33,2 40,7 44,6 40,5 27,2 3,5 HU 4,0 13,7 23,3 34,1 45,3 55,9 77,6 84,4 52,0 28,5 80,4 MT NL 135,5 152,1 165,6 180,8 196,1 208,1 212,9 211,2 72,5 3,1 75,7 AT PL 7,2 16,6 25,8 36,6 47,3 57,8 81,4 101,0 50,6 43,2 93,8 PT 4,3 4,2 SI 1,4 5,5 9,6 13,9 18,3 22,6 30,1 35,9 21,3 13,3 34,5 SK 7,2 13,3 20,2 27,2 34,8 52,0 67,3 34,8 32,5 67,3 FI 52,4 62,1 67,8 72,8 77,0 80,5 84,9 88,8 28,1 8,3 36,4 SE 38,7 55,5 65,1 73,0 79,2 84,5 84,1 78,2 45,8 -6,3 39,5 UK
Table 3-24 Higher interest rate scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions
Public pensions, contributions / gross pensions Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE CZ 105 108 109 105 100 93 73 63 -12 -30 -42 DK DE 68 69 66 67 68 68 68 68 0 0 0 EE 98 97 109 119 125 132 139 146 33 14 47 GR ES FR 100 99 98 94 92 90 86 87 -10 -3 -13 IE 76 65 57 52 46 43 36 30 -34 -12 -46 IT 72 74 75 74 72 68 66 72 -3 4 1 CY 80 80 79 73 67 59 49 36 -21 -23 -44 LV 104 124 125 115 104 97 91 97 -7 1 -7 LT 101 96 94 87 78 75 75 72 -25 -3 -29 LU 99 102 93 85 74 67 59 58 -32 -9 -41 HU 74 61 58 52 51 50 43 40 -25 -9 -34 MT 96 77 66 58 53 52 50 47 -43 -5 -48 NL 88 84 77 71 66 61 57 59 -27 -2 -29 AT 67 71 71 69 65 62 64 70 -5 8 3 PL 55 70 82 83 84 87 93 100 32 13 45 PT 95 88 78 68 64 59 49 44 -36 -14 -50 SI 85 91 90 86 80 74 63 58 -10 -16 -27 SK 90 75 75 69 64 61 56 49 -29 -12 -41 FI 85 79 78 77 76 75 76 75 -10 0 -10 SE 72 74 72 71 69 66 61 63 -6 -3 -10 UK 87 90 91 90 86 80 76 73 -7 -7 -14
1)
EU15 80 82 80 79 76 74 71 72 -7 -2 -8
1)
EU10 71 78 83 80 78 77 71 68 6 -9 -3
EU12 1) 80 81 79 77 75 73 71 72 -7 -1 -8
EU25 1) 80 81 80 79 77 74 71 72 -6 -2 -8
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-25 Lower interest rate scenario: gross public pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Public pensions, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,0 12,1 13,4 14,7 15,7 15,5 4,3 0,8 5,1 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,2 8,4 8,9 9,6 12,2 14,0 1,1 4,5 5,6 DK 9,5 10,1 10,8 11,3 12,0 12,8 13,5 12,8 3,3 0,0 3,3 DE 11,4 10,5 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 EE 6,7 6,8 6,0 5,4 5,1 4,7 4,4 4,2 -1,9 -0,5 -2,5 GR : : : : : : : : : : : ES 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,3 10,4 11,8 15,2 15,7 3,3 3,9 7,1 FR 12,8 12,9 13,2 13,7 14,0 14,3 15,0 14,8 1,5 0,5 2,0 IE 4,7 5,2 5,9 6,5 7,2 7,9 9,3 11,1 3,1 3,2 6,4 IT 14,2 14,0 13,8 14,0 14,4 15,0 15,9 14,7 0,8 -0,4 0,4 CY 6,9 8,0 8,8 9,9 10,8 12,2 15,0 19,8 5,3 7,6 12,9 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 4,9 5,3 5,6 5,9 5,6 -1,2 -0,1 -1,2 LT 6,7 6,6 6,6 7,0 7,6 7,9 8,2 8,6 1,2 0,7 1,8 LU 10,0 9,8 10,9 11,9 13,7 15,0 17,0 17,4 5,0 2,4 7,4 HU 10,4 11,1 11,6 12,5 13,0 13,5 16,0 17,1 3,1 3,7 6,7 MT 7,4 8,8 9,8 10,2 10,0 9,1 7,9 7,0 1,7 -2,1 -0,4 NL 7,7 7,6 8,3 9,0 9,7 10,7 11,7 11,2 2,9 0,6 3,5 AT 13,4 12,8 12,7 12,8 13,5 14,0 13,4 12,2 0,6 -1,7 -1,2 PL 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,7 9,5 9,2 8,7 8,0 -4,7 -1,2 -5,9 PT 11,1 11,9 12,6 14,1 15,0 16,0 18,8 20,8 4,9 4,8 9,7 SI 11,0 11,1 11,6 12,3 13,3 14,4 16,8 18,3 3,4 3,9 7,3 SK 7,2 6,7 6,6 7,0 7,3 7,7 8,2 9,0 0,5 1,3 1,8 FI 10,7 11,2 12,0 12,9 13,5 13,9 13,8 13,6 3,3 -0,3 3,0 SE 10,6 10,1 10,3 10,4 10,6 11,0 11,4 11,0 0,3 0,0 0,3 UK 6,6 6,6 6,7 6,9 7,3 7,9 8,4 8,6 1,3 0,7 2,0
EU15 1) 10,6 10,4 10,5 10,8 11,4 12,1 12,9 12,9 1,5 0,8 2,3 EU10 1) 10,9 9,8 9,2 9,5 9,7 9,8 10,6 11,2 -1,1 1,3 0,3 EU12 1) 11,5 11,3 11,4 11,8 12,5 13,2 14,2 14,1 1,6 0,9 2,6 EU25 1) 10,6 10,3 10,4 10,7 11,3 11,9 12,8 12,7 1,3 0,8 2,1
-
1)excluding Greece
Table 3-26 Lower interest rate scenario: gross total pension expenditure as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
Total pension expenditure, gross as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 10,4 10,4 11,0 12,1 13,4 14,7 15,7 15,5 4,3 0,8 5,1 CZ 8,5 8,2 8,2 8,4 8,9 9,6 12,2 14,0 1,1 4,5 5,6 DK DE 11,4 10,5 10,5 11,0 11,6 12,3 12,8 13,1 0,9 0,8 1,7 EE 6,7 6,8 6,0 5,6 5,4 5,2 5,4 6,0 -1,5 0,9 -0,6 GR ES 8,6 8,9 8,8 9,3 10,4 11,8 15,2 15,7 3,3 3,9 7,1 FR 12,8 12,9 13,2 13,7 14,0 14,3 15,0 14,8 1,5 0,5 2,0 IE IT 14,2 14,0 13,8 14,0 14,4 15,0 15,9 14,7 0,8 -0,4 0,4 CY 6,9 8,0 8,8 9,9 10,8 12,2 15,0 19,8 5,3 7,6 12,9 LV 6,8 4,9 4,6 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,8 7,7 -0,9 1,7 0,9 LT 6,7 6,6 6,6 7,1 7,7 8,2 9,0 10,0 1,5 1,7 3,2 LU 10,0 9,8 10,9 11,9 13,7 15,0 17,0 17,4 5,0 2,4 7,4 HU 10,4 11,1 11,6 12,6 13,2 13,8 17,2 19,4 3,5 5,6 9,1 MT 7,4 8,8 9,8 10,2 10,0 9,1 7,9 7,0 1,7 -2,1 -0,4 NL 12,4 12,2 13,2 14,3 15,8 17,8 20,1 19,7 5,4 1,9 7,3 AT 13,4 12,8 12,7 12,8 13,5 14,0 13,4 12,2 0,6 -1,7 -1,2 PL 13,9 11,3 9,8 9,8 9,7 9,5 9,3 9,3 -4,5 -0,1 -4,6 PT 11,1 11,9 12,6 14,1 15,0 16,0 18,8 20,8 4,9 4,8 9,7 SI 11,0 11,1 11,6 12,4 13,5 14,7 17,5 19,3 3,7 4,6 8,3 SK 7,2 6,7 6,7 7,2 7,7 8,3 9,4 10,8 1,1 2,5 3,6 FI 10,7 11,2 12,0 12,9 13,5 13,9 13,8 13,6 3,3 -0,3 3,0 SE 12,9 12,4 12,7 12,9 13,1 13,6 14,0 13,2 0,6 -0,3 0,3 UK
EU15 1) 12,0 11,7 11,9 12,3 13,0 13,8 14,9 14,7 1,8 0,9 2,7 EU10 1) 10,9 9,8 9,3 9,6 9,9 10,1 11,3 12,4 -0,8 2,3 1,5 EU12 1) 12,0 11,7 11,8 12,3 13,0 13,8 14,9 14,8 1,8 1,0 2,8 EU25 1) 11,9 11,6 11,7 12,1 12,8 13,5 14,6 14,5 1,5 1,1 2,6
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided data
Table 3-27 Lower interest rate scenario: total assets in pension schemes as a share of GDP between 2004 and 2050
All pensions, assets as % of GDP Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE 4,4 7,1 12,8 14,9 11,3 CZ 0,3 3,4 6,5 9,2 9,8 7,7 7,4 DK DE 0,1 0,4 0,8 EE 2,8 9,3 15,2 23,9 35,1 46,8 70,3 92,2 44,0 45,4 89,4 GR ES FR 1,2 1,9 2,7 3,7 3,1 2,5 1,3 0,0 1,3 -2,5 -1,2 IE IT CY LV 0,3 12,7 25,2 36,3 45,3 52,7 60,4 61,4 52,3 8,7 61,1 LT 0,3 4,2 8,3 13,2 19,2 25,4 36,6 45,6 25,1 20,3 45,3 LU 23,6 30,2 34,4 34,5 26,6 10,5 HU 4,0 12,7 20,7 29,2 37,4 44,8 59,5 64,6 40,9 19,8 60,6 MT NL 135,5 166,9 189,2 211,4 235,2 256,1 275,9 284,3 120,6 28,2 148,8 AT PL 6,9 15,1 22,5 30,7 38,4 45,4 60,4 72,3 38,4 27,0 65,4 PT 4,3 3,8 SI 1,4 5,5 9,6 13,9 18,3 22,6 30,1 35,9 21,3 13,3 34,5 SK 6,8 12,2 17,8 23,2 28,7 40,4 50,4 28,7 21,7 50,4 FI 52,4 56,6 58,2 59,3 60,1 60,4 59,9 60,0 8,0 -0,4 7,6 SE 38,6 51,5 56,6 59,8 61,4 62,3 56,2 49,4 23,7 -12,8 10,9 UK
Table 3-28 Lower interest rate scenario: contributions to public pension schemes as a share of public pensions
Public pensions, contributions / gross pensions Change Change Change Country 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 2004-2030 2030-2050 2004-2050
BE CZ 105 108 109 105 100 93 73 63 -12 -30 -42 DK DE 68 69 66 67 68 68 68 68 0 0 0 EE 98 97 109 119 125 132 139 146 33 14 47 GR ES FR 100 99 98 94 92 90 86 87 -10 -3 -13 IE 76 65 57 52 46 43 36 30 -34 -12 -46 IT 72 74 75 74 72 68 66 72 -3 4 1 CY 80 80 79 73 67 59 49 36 -21 -23 -44 LV 104 124 125 115 104 97 91 97 -7 1 -7 LT 101 96 94 87 78 75 74 71 -26 -4 -29 LU 99 102 93 85 74 67 59 58 -32 -9 -41 HU 74 61 57 52 50 48 41 39 -26 -10 -36 MT 96 77 66 58 53 52 50 47 -43 -5 -48 NL 88 84 77 71 66 61 57 59 -27 -2 -29 AT 67 71 71 69 65 62 64 70 -5 8 3 PL 55 70 82 83 84 87 93 100 32 13 45 PT 95 88 78 68 64 59 49 44 -36 -14 -50 SI 85 91 90 86 80 74 63 58 -10 -16 -27 SK 90 75 75 69 64 61 56 49 -29 -12 -41 FI 85 81 83 83 83 83 86 87 -2 4 2 SE 72 74 72 71 70 67 64 67 -5 -1 -6 UK 87 90 91 90 86 80 76 73 -7 -7 -14
EU15 1) 80 82 80 79 77 74 71 72 -6 -2 -8 EU10 1) 72 78 83 80 78 77 71 67 5 -9 -4 EU12 1) 80 81 79 77 75 73 71 72 -7 -1 -7 EU25 1) 80 81 80 79 77 74 71 72 -6 -2 -8
-
1)excluding countries which have not provided information
-
4.M ETHODOLOGIES USED TO PROJECT HEALTH CARE SPENDING
4.1. Projection methodology for pure ageing scenario
-
The pure ageing scenario based on the expansion of morbidity hypothesis
In the pure ageing scenario, all gains in life expectancy are assumed to be spent in bad health while the number of years spent in good health remains constant. The extension of lifespan will not affect an average individual’s health status at any given age, and consequently his or her age-related expenditure on health care will not change over time. One can approximate this situation by assuming that health care cost per capita remains constant in GDP per capitaadjusted terms over the whole projection period. Based on this assumption, the projection is then made in the following manner.
First, for the time horizon of the projection exercise (2004-50), the age-related expenditure profiles (showing the average health care spending per capita for each year of age (from 0 to 100 or less, according to data availability) are assumed to grow in line with the same two cost assumptions as used in the 2001 exercise, i.e. GDP per capita and GDP per worker (based on the assumptions agreed by the AWG for the 2005 budgetary projection exercise). Therefore:
c ' g , a , n = c g , a ∆ Ypc n [1]
where:
c’ g, a, n is cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of the
projection period adjusted to the GDP per capita growth;
c g, a is constant cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a;
∆Ypc n is GDP per capita rate growth in year n,
∆
Ypc =
Y
∑ n −
Y n − 1 / Y n − 1
n p ∑
∑ [2] g , a , n p g , a , n − 1 p g , a , n − 1
Y n is GDP in year n;
p g, a, n is the projected population of a given gender g and age a in a given year n.
Second, this unit cost for each year is multiplied by the projected population of each year of age (using the baseline population projection outlined in chapter 1)
S g , a , n = c ' g , a , n p g , a , n [3]
where:
S g, a, n is spending on health care realised by people of a given gender g and age a in a given
year n.
Next, the resulting total health care spending is divided by the GDP projected using the rates of change agreed by the Ageing Working Group in order to obtain share of health care expenditure in GDP:
T = ∑ S g , a , n n Y [4]
n
where:
T n is the share of total health care spending in GDP in a given year n.
4.2. Projection methodology for scenarios on health status
To capture possible changes in the health care status (morbidity) of populations over time, an additional assumption is required to run the constant health scenario and the improved health scenario. This is achieved by ‘linking’ changes in life expectancy to changes in morbidity (proxied by the age-related expenditure profile). In other words, for each year and for each age/gender, the age-related expenditure profile is shifted outwards – i.e. providing modified values of cost per capita, which then applied in the same manner as the pure ageing scenario described above. As regards the scale of the outward shift in the age-related expenditure profile:
• for the constant health scenario, it is directly proportional to the increase in life
expectancy for each cohort;
• for the improved health scenario, the same outward shift is assumed multiplied by a
factor of 2.
First, the change in life expectancy in relation to the base year is found for each year of the projections (for example, total life expectancy for a 50-year-old man in Austria is expected to
increase from 29.15 years in 2004 to 33.07 years in 2030, thus by 3.92 years) 1 :
∆ e g , a , n = e g , a , n − e g , a , 2004 [5]
where:
1 In the constant health scenario the total number of years spent in bad health during a person’s life time is
assumed to remain the same while life expectancy increases, so the morbidity rate must evolve in line with mortality rate for each age cohort. Thus, if between time t and t+1, total life expectancy increases by n years for a cohort of age x, healthy life expectancy for that very same age cohort must also increase by n years in order for the dynamic equilibrium hypothesis to be valid. If healthy life expectancy increases by n years, then the health status (and consequently health care spending) of this cohort of age x at time t+1 will be the same
as the health status (and health care spending) of cohort of age x-n at time t.
e g, a, n is life expectancy of an average person of a given gender g and age a in year n.
Second, for each year of projection, the respective reference age on the original age profile
curve is obtained by subtracting that change from the concerned age cohort 2 . This is done only for those sections of the age-profile where the cost per capita is growing 3 (for example for the
age cohort of 50 years-old, the value of cost per capita for that age in 2030 will be the same as the value of cost per capita for the age cohort of 50-3.92 = 46.08 ≈ 46.1 years in 2004).
Thirdly, the precise value of cost per capita assigned to that reference age is picked up:
c g , a , n = c g , a − ∆ e g , a , n , 2004 [6]
where:
c g, a, n is cost per capita assigned to a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of
the projection period;
c g, a-∆eg,a,n, 2004 is cost per capita assigned to a person of a given gender and age a-∆e g,a,n
(specified with a precision to a decimal part of a year) in the base year (2004).
Fourthly, the resulting value of cost per capita serves then as an input value to the basic calculations presented earlier in equations [1] – [4].
The procedure described above is also used to run the projections according to dynamic equilibrium scenario. In the morbidity compression scenario, the shift of the age profile is twice as large as in dynamic equilibrium scenario. Thus, equation [6] may be rewritten in the following way:
c g , a , n = c g , a − 2 ∆ e g , a , n , 2004 [7]
4.3. The projection methodology for the death-related costs scenario
The methodology to calculate spending on health care taking into account the number of remaining years if life is a further improvement of the methodology used in the pure demographic scenario. The difference lies in the way the unit cost of health care is calculated.
2 The changes in life expectancy and thus shifts in of the age profile from one year to another are sometimes very
small (in a range of a tenth part of a year). However, the data gathered by the Member States does not provide detailed information on costs per capita by single year of age (the most detailed item available is a 5- year average), so an additional calculation needs to be performed. To solve this problem, the intermediate values can be obtained by simple extrapolation/trend-smoothening method from the existing average figures. This way it is possible to assign a concrete value of cost per capita to each tenth part of a year of age.
47
In the death-related costs scenario, the population of each gender and year of age is divided into subgroups according to the number of remaining years of life using mortality rate as a weighting factor (e.g. number of people aged n expected to die within two years from year t is calculated as population aged n in year t multiplied by the probability of dying within two years which is expressed as: probability of surviving year t by persons aged n times probability of surviving year t+1 by persons aged n+1 times probability of dying in year t+2 by persons aged n+2).
Each subgroup is assigned a different unit cost, being an adjustment of the ‘normal’ unit cost 4
with the ratio of health care expenditure borne by a person of a given age and gender who is in her terminal phase of life to health care expenditure borne by a survivor. The number of people in each subgroup is thus multiplied by its respective cost per capita which gives total spending of each subgroup and the sum of total spending borne by the subgroups is total spending on health care in a given year.
In a formalised way, the methodology can be presented as follows.
First, the total population of each gender and age is divided into subgroups, according to the number of remaining years of life. Consequently, there are z subgroups of decedents (those who are going to die within 0, or 1, or 2, …, or z years) and one group of survivors
(those who are going to survive the z th year). In order to obtain the size of each subgroup, the
probability of dying in each gender, age and year of projection period are calculated.
The probability that a person of gender g and age a will die in the x th year after a given year n
can be expressed by an equation:
x − 1
d g , a , n , x = ∏ ( 1 − M g , a + i , n + i ) ⋅ M g , a + x , n + x
i = 0 [8]
where:
M th g , a + , i n + i is mortality rate of people of gender g aged a+i in the i year after given year n
and:
x ∈ ( 0 , 1 , 2 ... z )
where z is the highest number of years considered as time ‘close to death’ and for which data on costs is available.
Analogically, the probability that a person of gender g and age a in a given year n will survive
z th year can be expressed in a following way:
48
z
s g , a , n = ∏ ( 1 − M g , a + i , n + i )
i = 0 [9]
So, number of persons of a given gender g and age a who are going to die in x th year from a
given year n can be expressed in the following way:
Nd g , a , n , x = d g , a , n , x ⋅ p g , a , n [10]
where:
p g , a , n is projected population of a given gender g and age a in a given year n
Analogically, the number of those who are going to survive x th year:
Ns g , a , n = s g , a , n ⋅ p g , a , n [11]
Second, the unit health care cost of each person in a population is calculated. Contrary to approach I, per capita cost is not the same for all the individuals, but varies depending on whether a person is in her terminal phase of life. One must find the cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a, who is going to die within x years’ time from a given year n, as
well as the cost per capita of a person of the same gender g and age a surviving the x th year.
The ratio between the two costs is taken as the input data from the background studies (see tables in annex 1) and may be expressed as:
f cd g , a , x g , a , x = cs
g , a [12]
where:
cd g , a , x is health care cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a dying in the
x th year from the current year;
cs g , a is health care cost per capita of a person of the same gender g and age a surviving the
period considered as time ‘close to death’ from the current year.
To obtain the two costs, one must use the average cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a as given in the ‘age-related expenditure profiles’ provided to the AWG by the Member States. It may be defined as an average of the per capita costs borne by all the subgroups of decedents and survivors, weighted by the size of each subgroup:
z
∑ cd g , a , x ⋅ Nd g , a , x , 2004 + cs g , a ⋅ Ns g , a , 2004
c = x = 0 g , a p [13]
g , a , 2004
It must be borne in mind that the unit costs of decedents and survivors are calculated as for the base year 2004 (thus index 2004 used in the equations) and are kept constant over the whole projection period.
Substituting for cd g , a , x using [12], one gets:
z
∑ f g , a , x ⋅ cs g , a ⋅ Nd g , a , x , 2004 + cs g , a ⋅ Ns g , a , 2004
c = x = 0 g , a p [14]
g , a , 2004
or:
z
cs g , a ∑ f g , a , x ⋅ Nd g , a , x , 2004 + Ns g , a , 2004
c x = 0 g , a = p [14a]
g , a , 2004
This way, both cs g , a and – coming back to equation [12] - cd g , a , x can be calculated:
cs = c g , a
⋅ p g , a , 2004
g , a z ∑
f [15] g , a , x ⋅ Nd g , a , x , 2004 + Ns g , a , 2004
x = 0
cd = ⋅ g , a
⋅ g , a , 2004
g , a , x f
c p
g , a , x z ∑
f g a x ⋅ Nd [16] , , g , a , x , 2004 + Ns g , a , 2004
x = 0
As in pure ageing scenario and scenarios on health status, for the time horizon of the projection exercise (2004-50) the age-related expenditure profiles (showing the average health care spending per capita for each year of age (from 0 to 100 or less, according to data availability) are assumed to grow in line with the same two cost assumptions as used in the 2001 exercise, i.e. GDP per capita and GDP per worker (based on the assumptions agreed by the AWG for the 2005 budgetary projection exercise). Therefore:
cd ' g , a , x , n = cd g , a , x , n ⋅ rYpc n [17]
where:
cd’ g, a, x, n is cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a who is going to die
within x years, in a given year n of the projection period adjusted to the GDP per capita growth;
rYpc n is GDP per capita rate growth in year n,
rYpc = Y n − Y
n
− 1 / Y n −
n ∑ p
[18] g , a , n ∑ p g , a , n 1 ∑
1
− p g , a , n − 1
Y n is GDP in year n;
p g, a, n is the projected population of a given gender g and age a in a given year n.
The same procedure applies to construct cs’ g ,a, n on the basis of cs g, a ,n , i.e. to adjust to the
growth of GDP per capita the per capita cost of the subgroup of survivors.
Third, by multiplying the size of each subgroup by its respective cost per capita, the total cost can be calculated. Total expenditure on health care borne by those of a given gender g and age a, who are going to die within x years’ time from a given year n can be expressed in the following way:
ed g , a , x , n = Nd g , a , x , n ⋅ cd g , a , x , n [19]
and, analogically, total expenditure of those of gender g and age a who are going to survive z th
year:
es g , a , n = Ns g , a , n ⋅ cs g , a , n [20]
Adding total expenditures of all the subgroups (those dying within 0,1,2,…, z years time plus
those surviving z th year) gives total expenditure on health care borne by entire population of
gender g and age a in a given year n:
z
E g , a , n = ∑ ed g , a , n , x + es g , a , n
x =
[21]
1
Finally, total expenditure on health care borne by entire population in a given year n expressed as a share of the country’s GDP is calculated as follows:
∑∑ E g , a , n
T = g a n Y [22]
n
4.4. The projection methodology for income elasticity scenario
The projections of health care spending follow similar methodology as the pure ageing scenario with a change in the way cost per capita is evolving over the projection period. Income elasticity is taken into account by replacing equation [1] by the following one:
c ' g , a , n = c g , a ∆ Ypc n ε n [23]
where:
c’ g, a, n is cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of the
projection period adjusted to the GDP per capita growth;
c g, a is constant cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a;
∆Ypc n is GDP per capita rate growth in year n;
ε n is income elasticity of demand, converging from ε 2004 in the base year to ε 2050 in 2050.
Therefore:
ε n = ε − ( − ε ε n 2004 ) ⋅ 2004 − 2050 2004
2050 − 2004 [24]
In the specific case where income elasticity of demand converges from 1.2 in 2004 to 1 in 2050, the value will be the following
ε n = 1 . 2 − ( n − 2004 ) ⋅ 1 . 2 − 1 n
2050 −
-
=1 . 2 − − 2004
2004 230 [24a]
After unit cost has been calculated the following equations [3]-[4] do not change.
4.5. The projection methodology for unit costs scenario using GDP per worker
instead of GDP per capita.
The only difference between this scenario and pure ageing scenario is the change in the development pattern of unit costs. GDP per capita is replaced by GDP per worker, thus equation [1] takes the following form:
c ' g , a , n = c g , a ∆ Ypw n [25]
where:
∆Ypw n is GDP per worker rate growth in year n,
∆
Ypw =
Y n − Y n − Y
1 / n
−
n ∑ w ∑
1 [26]
g , a , n w g , a , n − 1
∑
w g , a , n − 1
w g, a, n is the projected number of people employed of a given gender g and age a in a given
year n.
The following equations [3]-[4] do not change.
4.6. The projection methodology for high life expectancy
The methodology to project health care expenditure is the same as in the pure ageing scenario, but the input data on population and macroeconomic variables change accordingly with the assumptions on high life expectancy.
4.7. The projection methodology for EU10 cost convergence scenario
The projections of health care spending follow similar methodology as the pure ageing scenario with a change in the way cost per capita is evolving over the projection period. Real convergence between EU15 and EU10 countries is assumed by replacing equation [1] by the following one:
c ' g , a , n = c g , a ∆ Ypc n f n [27]
where:
c’ g, a, n is cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of the
projection period adjusted to the GDP per capita growth;
c g, a is constant cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a;
∆Ypc n is GDP per capita rate growth in year n;
f n is a hypothetical rate of growth of unweighted average EU10 unit cost (calculated in the base year) in a given year n with respect to the base year if it was to converge to unweighted average EU15 level by 2050 (calculated in the base year). Therefore:
f = ( n − 2004 ) ⋅ c g , a , EU 15
− c g , a , EU 10
n 2050 − 2004 [28]
where:
c g , a , EU 15 is unweighted EU15 average cost per capita of a given gender g and age a calculated
in the base year;
c g , a , EU 10 is unweighted EU10 average cost per capita of a given gender g and age a calculated
in the base year.
After unit cost has been calculated the following equations [3]-[4] do not change.
4.8. The projection methodology for unit cost scenarios (fast growth and
extrapolation of past trends)
4.8.1. Decomposition of unit costs
First, cost per capita for each gender, year of age and year of projection period is divided into four parts attributable to four items of expenditure, according to the share of each respective item in total public health care spending: wages and salaries of the health care staff, investment in health care technology and infrastructure, spending on pharmaceuticals, and the other factors.
c g , a , j = c g , a ⋅ q j [29]
where:
c g, a, j is part of cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a, attributable to the
item j of health care expenditure;
j stands for w (wages and salaries), i (capital investment), ph (pharmaceuticals) or o (others),
or, formally: j ∈ (w, i, ph, o);
c g, a is constant over time cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a;
q j is the share of each respective item j in total public health care expenditure.
According to the initial assumptions:
q w + q i + q ph + q o = 1
After the decomposition, each part of the unit cost develops according to a different pattern. The patterns differ across scenarios (a separate scenario for each driver of costs) and according to the chosen variant of unit cost evolution (the note presents three possible variants, although other ones are possible, depending on initial assumptions). The general rule is that in the broad framework of each variant of unit cost evolution, separate impact of a given evolution in wages, investment and pharmaceutical spending is calculated.
Calculations are run according to two different variants of the development of unit costs: fast growth variant and extrapolation variant.
4.8.2. Fast cost growth variant
The projections in the framework of the fast growth variant can be expressed as follows. The part attributable to the item whose impact on the health care spending is analysed (wages and salaries, capital investment and pharmaceutical spending - each component separately or all together) evolves according to the following rule:
c g , a , j , n = c g , a , j , n − 1 ⋅ r j , n [30]
where:
c g, a, j, n is part of cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of
the projection period, attributable to the concrete item j of health care expenditure;
r j , n is the rate of change in the part of cost per capita attributable to the concrete item j of
health care expenditure in a given year n. It is calculated according to the following method:
r =
rYpc n + 0 . 01 for 2005 ≤ n <
j n
2015
, rYpc for n ≥ 2015 [31]
n
where:
rYpc n is GDP per capita rate of growth in year n
At the same time, the parts attributable to the three remaining items (others than the one whose impact is analysed) follow simple GDP per capita development path:
c g , a , j , n = c g , a , j , n −1 ⋅ rYpc n [32]
where:
c g, a, j, n is part of cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of the projection period, attributable to the other items of health care expenditure, j ∈ (w, i, ph, o);
rYpc n is GDP per capita rate of growth in year n.
4.8.3. The extrapolation of past trends variant
In the extrapolation variant, the three components of unit cost develop according to the same rule, but the rate of change in the base year differs according to the components.
The development pattern is the following:
c g , a , j , n = c g , a , j , n − 1 ⋅ r j , n [33]
where:
c g, a, j, n is part of cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of
the projection period, attributable to the concrete item j of health care expenditure;
r j , n is the rate of change in the part of cost per capita attributable to the concrete item j of
health care expenditure in a given year n. It is calculated according to the following method:
r j , 2004 for n = 2005
r j , n = r j , n − 1 + ( rYpc 2015 − r j , 2004 ) / 10 for 2005 < n < 2015
[34]
rYpc n for n ≥ 2015
rYpc n is GDP per capita rate of growth in year n;
r j,2004 is rate of growth of a specific component in the base year. It differs according to the
item and equals:
g
∑ r w , n
n = g − b =
-
= b
for j w
r j , 2004 R 2004 for j = i
h
∑ r [35]
ph , n n = h − c
c for j = ph
where:
g is the year of the most recent past observation of rate of change in wages of health care
sector staff;
b is the number of available past observations of rate of change in wages of health care sector
staff;
R 2004 is the long term nominal interest rate in year 2004;
h is the year of the most recent past observation of rate of change of pharmaceuticals’ prices;
c is the number of available past observations of rate of change of pharmaceuticals’ prices.
While the item in question evolves according to the presented methodology, the part of per capita cost attributable to three remaining items of spending (others than the one whose impact is analysed) evolves in line with GDP per capita rate of growth:
c g , a , j , n = c g , a , j , n −1 ⋅ rYpc n [36]
where:
c g, a, j, n is part of cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of
the projection period, attributable to the other factors, j ∈ (w, i, ph, o); rYpc n is GDP per capita rate of growth in year n.
4.8.4. Re-aggregation of the unit cost and calculation of the total cost
After having calculated the value of each component for each year of the projection period, the four respective components are added to obtain re-aggregated total unit cost, different for each of the three scenarios:
c ' g , a , n = ∑ c g , a , j , n
∈ [37]
j ( w , i , ph , o )
c’ g, a, n is cost per capita of a person of a given gender g and age a in a given year n of the
projection period, adjusted for a combination of different patterns of development in spending on three components of total cost.
This total unit cost is then multiplied by the population of each gender and year of age in each year of the projection period:
S g , a , n = c ' g , a , n ⋅ p g , a , n [38]
where:
S g, a, n is spending on health care realised by people of a given gender g and age a in a given
year n;
p g, a, n is the projected population of a given gender g and age a in a given year n.
By adding spending for all genders and years of age total spending on health care in each year of the projection period is calculated which, may be further expressed as a share of GDP:
∑ S g , a , n
T = g , a n Y [39]
n
where:
T n is the share of total health care spending in GDP in a given year n;
Y n is GDP in a given year n.
-
5.D ATA INPUTS TO THE HEALTH CARE PROJECTIONS
5.1. Age-related expenditure profiles
Data comes from a variety of non-comparable national sources
Table 5-1 summarises the age-related expenditure profiles which have been collected through the AWG on the basis of a questionnaire circulated by DG ECFIN. The main features of the data can be summarised as follows:
• 18 Member States have provided profiles as part of the 2005 budgetary projection
exercise. Most of the data reported for the 2005 budgetary projection exercise was
collected since 2000;
• profiles are available for an additional 3 countries from the 2001 budgetary projection
exercise but who did not report data for this projection exercise. However, this data is
quite old: EL 1995, FR 1997, PT 1999;
• profiles are not available for 4 countries;
For the most part, the age-related expenditure profiles do not cover all areas of public spending on health care, but rather acute health care. More detailed information on the coverage of data is generally not available.
A breakdown of data by gender is available for all countries but MT and the UK;
The data for most countries is grouped into 5-year cohorts. Some countries have provided the data on spending disaggregated into 1-year cohorts.
When making budgetary projections based on age-related expenditure profiles, the following data has been used:
• profiles reported for the 2005 exercise have been used for 18 Member States (BE, CZ,
DE, DK, ES, IT, LV, LT, LU, MT, NL, AT, PL, SI, SK, FI, SE, UK);
• profiles reported for the 2001 exercise have been used for 3 Member States (FR, EL,
PT);
• for 4 countries where no profiles exist, an average EU10 or EU15 profile was used
(EE, IE, CY, HU)
Table 5-1 Overview of available age-related expenditure profiles on health care
Year when
Country Availability of most recent
Gender and
data data was Description of data cohort Source
Data used in projection
collected classification
exercise
2001 2005
Estimates of per capita public spending on Gender, single
acute health care based on a sample year of age, 5- Alliance Nationale des
BE yes yes 2001 covering most public acute care year cohorts, Mutualités Chrétiennes (ANMC) 2005 national data
expenditures and approximately 50% of the decedent/survivor and Federal Planning Bureau
insured population status (FPB).
Gender, 5-year
CZ no yes 2003 Average health care costs cohorts, General Health Insurance decedent/survivor Company of the Czech Republic 2005 national data
status
Gender, single
DK yes yes 2003 Individual register-based data year of age, decedent/survivor Ministry of Finance, Denmark 2001 national data
status
Empirical data on the breakdown of acute
DE yes no 2000 health care expenditure by age and sex are Gender, 5-year gathered (since 1998) for all those covered cohorts ? 2001 national data
by statutory health insurance
EE no no - - - - EU10 average
Annual amount of the hospital days for the Gender, age
EL yes no 1995 people that are insured under IKA scheme cohorts: 0-14, 15- used as a proxy variable for the estimation 19, 20-54, 55-64, ? 2001 national data
of the age-related profiles 65-79, 80+
ES yes yes 2003 Per capita health expenditure on acute care Gender, 5-year age cohorts Instituto de Estudios Fiscales 2005 national data
Household survey on health and
FR yes no 1997 Per capita health expenditure on acute care Gender, 10-years health care consumption and age cohorts administrative files from the 2001 national data
three main sickness funds
IE no no - - - - EU15 average
Istat - Popolazione residente al
IT yes yes 2004 Public spending on acute health care Gender, 5-year
2004; Ministero della Salute -
divided by resident population. age cohorts Rapporto annuale sulle attività 2005 national data di ricovero ospedaliero – 2003;
et al.
CY no no - - - - EU15 average
Central Statistical Bureau,
Gender, single Health Compulsory Insurance
LV no yes 2003 Per capita public spending on acute health State Agency, Directorate of care year of age, 5- 2005 National data year cohorts Social Services of the Ministry of Welfare, estimations of the
Ministry of Finances
LT no yes 2004 Estimates of per capita public spending on Gender, single State Patient Fund, State Social acute health care year of age Insurance Fund Board 2005 National data
Public expenditure per capita by social Inspection Générale de la
LU no yes 2003 security and government: health insurance Gender, 5-year Securité Sociale
and accident insurance cohorts
2005 National data
HU no no - - - - EU10 average
MT no yes 2003 Per capita public spending on acute health 5-year cohorts Ministry of Health, the Elderly 2005 National data
care and Community Care (MHEC)
NL yes yes 1999 Per capita expenditure on acute health care Gender, single year of age RIVM (Johan Polder) 2005 National data
Total public expenditure on acute care
including: acute care in public hospitals and Gender, single year of age, 5-
AT yes yes 2003 private hospitals; and social health insurance expenditure on physician services, year age groups, ? 2005 National data
dental treatment, pharmaceuticals medical decedent/survivor
appliances and other items status
Public expenditure on health care in Euro Gender, single
PL no yes 2004 per insured person, including ambulatory year of age, specialist care, hospital care, and other decedent/survivor National Health Fund 2005 National data
items status
Gouveia, M. (2001),
Gender, age “Financiamento e Regras para
cohorts: 0, 1-4, 5- Acordos do Ministério da Saúde
PT yes no 1999 Per capita health expenditure on acute care 11, 12-19, 20-29, com Subsistemas”, Relatório 2001 National data
30-39, 40-54, 55- Final, Centro de Estudos
64, 65-74, 75+ Aplicados, Universidade
Católica Portuguesa
Total public expenditure per capita including: primary care, specialist
ambulatory care, hospital care, drugs and
SI no yes 2004 medical instruments, aministrative costs, Gender, 5-year sickness benefits, other expenditures, capital age cohorts
-
?2005 National data
expenditures, other programs and spending
at municipalities level
SK no yes 2004 Average annual expenditure per insured Gender, 5-year Statistical Office of the Slovak person age cohorts Republic 2005 National data
Hujanen, Mikkola, Pekurinen,
Häkkinen, Teitto (2004),
“Terveydenhuollonmenot ikä- ja
FI yes yes 2003 Per capita public spending on acute health Gender, 5-year care age cohorts sukupuoliryhmittäin vuonna 2005 National data
2002”, National research and
development centre for welfare
and health
SE yes yes 2003 Per capita public spending on acute health Gender, single care year of age ? 2005 National data
Age cohorts: 0-4,
5-15, 16-44, 45-
UK yes yes 2002/03 Estimated per capita expenditure on acute health care 64, 65-69, 70-74, National Health Service 2005 National data
75-79, 80-84,
85+
5.2. Projected changes in life expectancy
Scenario II assesses the impact of potential changes in the health care status of elderly citizens. Changes in the health care status of the elderly over the projection time horizon will be linked to the projected changes in life expectancy by age and gender. In the constant health scenario (II) the age-related expenditure profile will be shifted outwards in a one-to-one proportion with the projected age and gender specific change in life expectancy.
Table 5-2 and Table 5-3 below present the projected increase in life expectancy persons at 65, 70, 75 and 80 between 2004 and 2025 and 2050 based on the baseline AWG population scenario for males and females respectively. There are significant gains in life expectancy at older ages. Not surprisingly, they are slightly higher for males than females, and also for EU10 compared with EU15 countries.
Table 5-2 Projected changes in life expectancy for elderly cohorts - males
Age 65 75 85 Life Life Life
expectancy Change by Change by % change expectancy Change by Change by % change expectancy Change by Change by % change in 2004 2025 2050 2004-2050 in 2004 2025 2050 2004-2050 in 2004 2025 2050 2004-2050
BE 15,8 2,8 4,5 28,2 9,2 1,8 2,8 30,3 4,7 0,6 0,9 19,1
CZ 13,8 2,7 4,6 33,2 8,2 1,7 3,0 37,3 4,3 0,5 1,2 28,1
DK 15,2 2,2 4,1 26,8 9,0 1,5 2,9 32,5 4,8 0,9 1,8 37,9
DE 16,1 2,3 4,0 24,6 9,8 1,7 2,8 29,0 5,4 0,7 1,2 21,2
EE 12,4 2,3 4,9 39,2 8,0 1,7 3,4 43,0 4,7 0,8 1,6 33,6
EL 16,4 1,7 3,3 20,0 9,6 1,1 2,2 23,5 4,6 0,6 1,4 30,6
ES 16,7 2,1 3,3 20,0 10,0 1,4 2,2 21,8 5,3 0,5 0,7 13,7
FR 17,0 2,2 3,6 21,0 10,4 1,5 2,3 22,2 5,4 0,4 0,6 10,6
IE 15,4 2,8 4,8 31,4 9,0 2,0 3,4 38,5 5,0 1,3 2,4 47,6
IT 16,7 2,1 3,7 22,2 10,0 1,3 2,4 24,1 5,3 0,5 1,1 20,6
CY 16,2 2,2 3,7 23,1 9,7 1,6 2,8 28,7 5,3 0,7 1,3 24,3
LV 12,3 2,6 5,1 41,8 7,9 2,0 3,7 47,3 4,5 0,9 1,6 35,9
LT 13,3 2,1 4,6 34,9 8,4 1,5 3,2 38,5 4,9 0,6 1,4 27,7
LU 15,7 2,5 4,2 26,6 9,4 1,6 2,8 29,9 4,7 0,7 1,3 26,8
HU 13,1 3,1 5,5 42,4 8,2 2,1 3,9 47,4 4,7 1,0 1,7 36,6
MT 15,2 2,4 4,0 26,5 9,3 1,7 2,9 31,5 5,1 0,7 1,4 26,6
NL 15,4 1,8 3,5 22,7 8,9 1,2 2,6 28,7 4,6 0,7 1,8 38,3
AT 16,2 2,4 4,2 26,1 9,6 1,7 3,1 32,0 4,9 0,8 1,3 27,6
PL 13,7 2,9 5,1 36,8 8,6 1,9 3,5 40,4 4,8 0,8 1,5 30,4
PT 15,6 2,5 4,3 27,4 9,1 1,6 2,8 30,2 : : : :
SI 14,3 2,7 4,4 31,0 8,7 1,8 3,0 34,6 4,7 0,6 1,3 27,7
SK 12,9 2,5 4,6 35,9 7,9 1,5 3,0 38,0 4,5 0,5 1,3 28,3
FI 15,7 2,7 4,3 27,2 9,2 1,6 2,6 28,6 4,8 0,6 1,2 24,3
SE 16,7 1,9 3,3 19,7 9,8 1,3 2,4 24,9 4,8 0,6 1,4 29,5
UK 16,1 2,6 4,3 26,7 9,6 1,7 2,9 30,3 : : : :
EU15* 16,0 2,3 3,9 24,6 9,5 1,5 2,7 28,3 4,9 0,7 1,3 26,4
EU10* 13,7 2,5 4,7 34,0 8,5 1,7 3,2 38,3 4,8 0,7 1,4 29,8
EU25* 15,1 2,4 4,2 28,0 9,1 1,6 2,9 32,0 4,9 0,7 1,4 27,9
-
*unweighted average
Table 5-3 Projected changes in life expectancy for elderly cohorts - females
Age 65 75 85 Life Life Life
expectancy Change by Change by % change expectancy Change by Change by % change expectancy Change by Change by % change in 2004 2025 2050 2004-2050 in 2004 2025 2050 2004-2050 in 2004 2025 2050 2004-2050
BE 19,7 2,9 4,4 22,2 11,8 2,2 3,3 28,0 5,9 1,1 1,6 27,9
CZ 17,0 2,3 3,9 22,6 9,8 1,6 2,9 29,1 4,9 0,8 1,5 29,7
DK 18,0 2,0 3,9 21,7 11,1 1,7 3,4 30,7 5,8 1,3 2,7 45,7
DE 19,5 2,4 3,9 19,9 11,8 1,8 3,0 25,5 6,0 0,9 1,5 25,4
EE 16,9 2,2 4,1 24,1 9,9 1,5 3,0 30,2 5,1 0,8 1,6 31,6
EL 18,5 2,0 3,8 20,3 10,4 1,6 3,1 29,4 4,7 1,1 2,0 42,9
ES 20,7 2,1 3,0 14,8 12,4 1,6 2,3 18,6 6,2 0,7 1,0 16,1
FR 21,3 2,2 3,2 15,3 13,1 1,7 2,5 18,8 6,7 0,8 1,1 16,2
IE 18,6 2,8 4,8 25,9 11,2 2,2 3,8 33,9 6,1 1,6 2,9 47,3
IT 20,6 2,0 3,5 17,2 12,5 1,4 2,6 20,6 6,4 0,6 1,2 19,0
CY 18,3 1,9 3,3 18,0 10,8 1,5 2,6 24,5 5,8 0,8 1,5 25,1
LV 16,6 2,2 4,1 24,9 9,7 1,7 3,2 32,7 5,0 0,9 1,7 33,6
LT 17,4 2,1 4,0 23,0 10,3 1,7 3,1 30,4 5,2 0,9 1,7 31,9
LU 19,6 2,3 3,8 19,4 11,9 1,8 3,0 25,1 6,3 0,9 1,6 24,8
HU 16,7 2,5 4,4 26,5 9,8 1,8 3,3 33,8 5,0 1,0 1,8 34,8
MT 18,3 2,0 3,3 17,9 10,9 1,5 2,5 23,2 5,4 0,8 1,4 24,9
NL 19,0 1,5 3,1 16,3 11,4 1,2 2,5 21,5 5,7 0,6 1,4 25,3
AT 19,7 2,5 4,0 20,2 11,7 1,9 3,1 26,0 5,8 0,9 1,4 25,1
PL 17,4 2,4 4,1 23,5 10,3 1,8 3,1 30,4 5,2 0,9 1,6 31,6
PT 19,0 2,5 4,1 21,6 11,1 1,8 3,1 27,4 : : : :
SI 18,4 2,3 3,6 19,6 10,9 1,7 2,7 25,0 5,3 0,8 1,4 27,2
SK 16,5 2,2 3,9 23,6 9,6 1,5 2,9 29,9 4,9 0,7 1,4 29,2
FI 19,5 2,4 3,8 19,5 11,5 1,7 2,8 24,1 5,5 0,9 1,4 25,4
SE 19,8 1,9 3,2 16,3 12,0 1,4 2,6 21,3 5,9 0,8 1,5 25,5
UK 19,0 2,7 4,3 22,6 11,6 1,9 3,1 26,8 : : : :
EU15* 19,5 2,3 3,8 19,4 11,7 1,7 2,9 25,0 5,9 0,9 1,6 27,8
EU10* 17,4 2,2 3,9 22,3 10,2 1,6 2,9 28,8 5,2 0,8 1,5 29,8
EU25* 18,6 2,2 3,8 20,5 11,1 1,7 2,9 26,4 5,6 0,9 1,6 28,6
-
*unweighted average
5.3. Assumptions on the evolution of unit costs
Scenario I (and most other scenarios) assumes that unit costs evolve in line with GDP per capita. Scenario V, however, assumes that unit costs evolve in line with GDP per worker. Table 5-4 and Table 5-5 below present the evolution of GDP per capita and GDP per worker that emerges from the baseline underlying assumptions endorsed by the AWG.
Table 5-4 Assumptions on the evolution of unit costs – average yearly rate of growth of GDP per capita
2004-09 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50
BE 2,1 1,9 1,2 1,4 1,7
CZ 3,7 3,2 2,5 1,4 1,1
DK 1,8 1,9 1,3 1,4 2,0
DE 1,6 1,8 1,0 1,2 1,6
EE 6,7 4,4 2,8 2,0 1,2
EL 2,6 1,5 1,1 1,0 1,2
ES 2,1 2,4 1,5 0,7 1,0
FR 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,6
IE 4,3 3,3 2,0 1,3 1,1
IT 1,6 1,8 1,4 0,9 1,4
CY 3,2 3,2 2,3 2,0 1,3
LV 8,6 5,2 2,9 2,0 1,0
LT 7,2 5,0 2,6 1,8 1,2
LU 3,1 2,2 2,0 2,3 2,5
HU 4,0 3,2 2,6 1,5 1,3
MT 1,3 2,1 2,4 1,9 1,4
NL 1,3 1,6 1,2 1,5 1,9
AT 2,0 1,9 1,1 1,3 1,5
PL 5,0 4,2 2,9 1,6 1,0
PT 1,5 1,8 1,4 1,1 1,2
SI 3,6 2,9 2,2 1,5 1,3
SK 4,9 4,6 2,8 1,3 0,8
FI 2,5 1,8 1,5 1,7 1,7
SE 2,5 2,3 1,8 1,6 1,8
UK 2,5 2,3 1,5 1,4 1,6
Table 5-5 Assumptions on the evolution of unit costs – average yearly rate of growth of GDP per worker
2004-09 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50
BE 1,5 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,7
CZ 3,4 3,3 2,9 2,1 1,8
DK 1,9 2,0 1,8 1,7 1,7
DE 0,9 1,6 1,8 1,7 1,7
EE 5,4 4,3 3,1 2,1 1,8
EL 2,1 1,4 1,6 1,7 1,7
ES 1,1 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,7
FR 1,4 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,7
IE 3,4 3,2 1,9 1,7 1,7
IT 0,8 1,7 1,8 1,7 1,7
CY 2,4 3,0 2,8 2,1 1,8
LV 6,7 5,1 3,3 2,1 1,8
LT 5,9 4,2 3,2 2,1 1,8
LU 1,9 2,1 1,8 1,7 1,7
HU 3,2 3,1 2,8 2,1 1,8
MT 1,0 1,9 2,5 2,1 1,8
NL 1,1 1,7 1,8 1,7 1,7
AT 1,5 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,7
PL 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,1 1,8
PT 1,1 2,0 1,8 1,7 1,7
SI 3,3 3,2 2,8 2,1 1,8
SK 4,0 3,7 3,0 2,1 1,8
FI 2,1 2,2 1,9 1,7 1,7
SE 2,1 2,6 2,1 1,7 1,7
UK 2,2 2,4 1,9 1,7 1,7
5.4. Additional on death related costs from academic studies
Table 5-6 summarise the general characteristics of available data, from national sources, on death related costs, and Table 5-7 provides information on ratio between cost borne by a person with n remaining years of life and a survivor (decomposed - where available - by gender and age cohort). The data used in the preliminary projections were taken from separate scientific papers.
Given the lack of common methodology, there are considerable differences as regards technique of measurement, the degree of precision, sample size, time and space coverage, definition of decedent and survivor status, and other characteristics. Moreover, no study provided an estimate of death-related costs covering total health care spending (inpatient care + outpatient care + day care + home care). Instead, most studies provide data only on inpatient hospital care expenditure per capita which is then taken as a proxy for total health care expenditure per capita. Differences in input data arise across countries and the following issues are worth noting:
• the data available lacks one or more dimensions. This is the case for most countries:
Danish, German, Spanish, French data are not decomposed by gender, and the Swedish data is not decomposed by age cohort. Moreover, the notion a decedent differs across studies. In Spanish, Italian and Austrian data, it covers persons dying within the same year, while in the Swedish study up to six years prior to death are
taken into account.
• given the purpose of the research (analysis of the ageing process and its economic
consequences) the studies tend to concentrate on the elderly cohorts. In some cases (DK, FR), data is reported only for the elderly cohorts. In such cases, either younger cohorts must be omitted in the calculations, or the data concerning them must be
approximated or substituted by a proxy.
• there is a clear correlation between the age and the ratio between decedents’ and
survivors’ costs. A general trend can be observed whereby the ratio grows sharply from birth to the age of 10-20, and slowly declines thereafter. However, it is not reflected in all the studies, e.g. in the case of Sweden where one aggregate ratio is calculated for all the age cohorts. Moreover, the ratio differs considerably across the countries. Taking as an example the ratio of spending between people aged 60-65 who die within one year and the survivors of the same age, one can find as different results as: 8.0 in Denmark, 17.7 in Germany (55-64), 15.8 in Spain, 3.3 in France (55-64), 12.2 (males) and 16.9 (females) in Italy, and 20.8 (males) and 26.2 (females) in Austria. The differences are even higher when younger cohorts are compared. Such differences obviously have a large impact on the results of the projections and must be
taken into account when comparing them.
Table 5-6 Overview of studies with data on death-related costs for particular EU Member States
Reference Measured value Data source Status Age Gender
distinguished groups
DK Madsen M. (2004), Average expenditures Danish Persons with 0-1 50-59; No
Methodologies to on hospitals individual years of 60-69; incorporate ‘deathdistributed by age registerremaining life; 70-79; related’ costs in and years of based data persons with 1-2 80-89; projections of health and remaining life years of 90+; all long-term care based on remaining life; age Danish data, Ministry of persons with 2-3 groups Finance, Denmark years of remaining life; persons with 3+ years of remaining life
DE Busse R., Krauth C., Average number of Cohort Survivors; 0–24; No
Schwartz F. (2002), Use hospital days/ year study using persons in their 25–34; of acute Hospital Beds according to survival a sample of 3rd last year of 35–44; does not increase as the status persons life; persons in 45–54; Population Ages: Results insured by a their 2nd last 55–64; for a Seven Year Cohort sickness year of life; 65–74; Study in Germany, fund, persons in their 75–84; Journal of Epidemiology Germany, last year of life 85+ and Community Health, 1989–1995 vol. 56, pp. 289-293.
ES Ahn N., García J.R., Public Hospital Care Individual Decedents, 5-year No
Hercé J.A. (2005), Costs by Survival registersurvivors cohorts Demographic Status based data, from 1- Uncertainty and Health Spain, 1999 85, 86+ Care Expenditure in Spain, FEDEA, Documento de trabajo 2005-07
FR Caisse Nationale de Average medical Sample of Persons in their 35-44; No l’Assurance Maladie des consumption of individuals last year of life; 45-54;
Travailleurs Salariés persons in their last insured by a persons 1 year 55-64; (2003), Le vieillissement years of life by age at social before death; 65-74; de la population et son death (approximate insurance persons 2 years 75-84; incidence sur l'évolution values, precise data fund, 1996- before death; 85+ des dépenses de santé, not quoted in the 2002 persons 3 years Point de conjoncture article) before death; n°15 - juillet 2003 persons 4 years before death
IT Gabriele S., Cislaghi C., Per capita hospital Individual Decedents 5-year Yes
Costantini F., Innocenti expenditure ratio register(within one cohorts F., Lepore V., Tediosi F., deceased/survivors based data calendar year); from1- Valerio M., Zocchetti C. by age and gender from four survivors 89, 90+ (2005), Demographic Italian factors and health regions: expenditure profiles by Lombardy, age: the case of Italy. A Tuscany, deliverable for the Apulia and ENEPRI AHEAD Abruzzi, (Ageing, Health Status 2000 and Determinants of Health Expenditure) project
AT Riedel M., Hofmarcher Average expenditure Sample of Decedents, 5 year Yes M.M., Buchegger R., on hospital care individuals survivors cohorts
Brunner J. (2002), under assumption insured by a from 1- Nachfragemodell that expenditure on social 84; 85+ Gesundheitswesen. all fatal cases is the insurance Endbericht, Teil II. same as in hospital fund, 2000 Studie im Auftrag des care Bundesministeriums für Soziale Sicherheit und Generationen, Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS), Wien
SE Batljan I., Lagergren M. Average per capita Individual 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, None Yes (2004), cost of inpatient register 6, 6+ remaining
Inpatient/outpatient health care per capita based data years of life, health care costs and in the population from the whole remaining years of life – depending on Skåne population effect of decreasing remaining years of region, 1997 mortality on future acute life (approximate health care demand, values, precise data Social Science & not quoted in the Medicine, 59, pp.2459- article) 2466
Table 5-7 The ratio between cost borne by a person with N remaining years of life and a survivor, by age cohort
Denmark
N 0-1 1-2 2-3 3+
Age cohort
0-49 1 42,6 26,6 22,0 1
50-59 10,6 6,7 5,5 1 60-69 8,0 4,3 3,4 1 70-79 4,8 2,7 2,0 1 80-89 2,4 1,9 1,6 1 90+ 1,8 1,7 1,0 1
Germany
N 0 1 2 2+
Age cohort
0-24 30,3 14,0 11,6 1
25-34 31,8 13,3 14,9 1
35-44 31,6 20,5 12,5 1
45-54 20,6 8,2 5,8 1
55-64 17,7 5,4 3,0 1
65-74 12,1 4,1 3,0 1
75-84 6,6 2,4 1,8 1
85+ 4,3 1,2 0,9 1
Spain
N 0 0+
Age cohort
0 7,6 1
1-5 71,1 1
6-10 82,1 1
11-15 92,7 1
16-20 96,5 1
21-25 75,6 1
26-30 48,9 1
31-35 40,7 1
36-40 43,7 1
41-45 43,5 1
46-50 35,0 1
51-55 26,9 1
56-60 21,7 1
61-65 15,8 1
66-70 11,9 1
71-75 9,4 1
76-80 7,4 1
81-85 6,3 1
France
N 0 1 2 3 3+
Age cohort
0-34 2 6,5 5,5 3,0 2,0 1
35-44 6,5 5,5 3,0 2,0 1 45-54 8,8 6,8 2,5 1,5 1 55-64 3,3 2,3 1,5 1,0 1 65-74 2,6 2,3 1,3 1,0 1 75-84 2,8 2,4 1,5 1,2 1 85+ 1,8 1,7 1,2 1,0 1
Italy
males females
N 0 0+ 0 0+
Age cohort
0 3 67,0 1 84,9 1
1-4 67,0 1 84,9 1
5-9 78,6 1 159,1 1
10-14 70,9 1 108,4 1
15-19 40,5 1 46,3 1
20-24 26,4 1 33,8 1
25-29 29,9 1 26,5 1
30-34 30,9 1 27,6 1
35-39 40,8 1 37,9 1
40-44 35,6 1 41,9 1
45-49 31,7 1 32,3 1
50-54 21,4 1 27,5 1
55-59 17,2 1 24,0 1
60-64 12,2 1 16,9 1
65-69 8,5 1 12,1 1
70-74 6,2 1 8,3 1
75-79 4,5 1 5,4 1
80-84 3,3 1 3,7 1
85-89 2,4 1 2,6 1
90+ 1,7 1 1,6 1
Austria
males females
N 0 0+ 0 0+
Age cohort
0-4 50,9 1 67,0 1 5-9 156,6 1 240,0 1
10-14 173,9 1 205,1 1 15-19 135,2 1 113,1 1 20-24 136,6 1 77,2 1 25-29 131,9 1 63,1 1 30-34 128,1 1 70,5 1 35-39 103,2 1 84,4 1 40-44 77,7 1 59,7 1 45-49 48,1 1 52,1 1 50-54 32,4 1 35,0 1 55-59 25,6 1 30,0 1 60-64 20,8 1 26,2 1 65-69 13,6 1 17,1 1 70-74 10,5 1 11,8 1 75-79 7,8 1 8,6 1 80-84 6,7 1 7,2 1 85+ 6,2 1 5,4 1
Sweden
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 6+
All age
cohorts - 15,86 10,14 6,00 4,57 4,14 3,29 2,71 1
males
All age
cohorts - 13,71 9,57 6,00 4,71 4,00 3,14 2,57 1
females
Note: DK Cost per capita of decedents (0-1, 1-2, 2-3 remaining years of life) and survivors (more than 3
remaining years of life) aged 0-49 is missing in the database. It is therefore assumed to be twice the cost of a
decedent aged 50-59 and half the cost of a survivor aged 50-59. FR Cost per capita of people aged 0-34 is
missing in the database. It is therefore assumed to be the same as the cost per capita of people aged 35-44. IT
Cost per capita of people aged 0 is missing in the database. It is therefore assumed to be the same as the cost per
capita of people aged 1-4.
-
6.A DDITIONAL SCENARIOS FOR PUBLIC SPENDING ON HEALTH CARE
Table 6-1 presents the overview of additional scenarios (sensitivity tests) that complement the analysis of factors affecting public health care spending presented in section 4.4 of the report.
Table 6-1 Overview of additional scenarios for public spending on health care
Extrapolation of costs for each
High life EU10 cost component on expectancy Improved health convergence Fast cost growth health spending
A-I A-II A-III A-IV A-V
Population AWG scenario - projection high life
AWG scenario - AWG scenario - AWG scenario - AWG scenario -
expectancy baseline baseline baseline baseline
Improved health
scenario whereby For EU10, the
Age-related 2004 profiles held 2004 age profile 2004 profiles
expenditure constant over shifts by double the converge to
2004 profiles held 2004 profiles held
profiles projection period change in ageaverage age-profile
constant over constant over
specific life for EU15 countries
projection period projection period
expectancy by 2050
GDP per capita + 1 Different assumptions
Unit cost for each component
development GDP per capita GDP per capita GDP per capita
p.p. during the
period 2004 to of spending (wages,
2015 pharmaceuticals, capital investment)
Income elasticity
of demand 1 1 1 1 1
6.1. High life expectancy scenario
Scenario A-I examines the impact of higher life expectancy on health care spending. It is based on the same assumptions as the pure ageing scenario (I) presented in chapter 4 of the report, except that it uses the high life expectancy population projection rather than AWG population scenario: for more details, see chapter 2 in EPC and European Commission (2005a).
On average, public expenditure on health care is projected to increase by 2% of GDP over the period 2004-2050. This increase is somewhat (0.3% of GDP) stronger than in pure ageing scenario in all but one (LU) country. Such results show clearly that the demographic effect of higher life expectancy, whereby people live longer and therefore require more health care services outweighs the economic effect, whereby GDP increases faster and the share of health care spending in GDP automatically falls.
Table 6-2 Projection results for high life expectancy scenario (A-I)
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure ageing scenario
change
2004 2010 2030 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050 BE 6,2 6,4 7,3 8,0 1,8 0,0 0,1 0,3 DK 6,9 7,0 7,8 8,2 1,4 0,0 0,1 0,2 DE 6,0 6,3 7,1 7,7 1,7 0,0 0,2 0,4 GR 5,1 5,3 6,0 7,2 2,1 0,0 0,1 0,3 ES 6,1 6,3 7,4 8,6 2,5 0,0 0,1 0,3 FR 7,7 8,0 9,1 9,8 2,1 0,0 0,1 0,3 IE 5,3 5,5 6,5 7,5 2,2 0,0 0,1 0,2 IT 5,8 6,0 6,8 7,4 1,6 0,0 0,1 0,2 LU 5,1 5,3 5,9 5,5 0,4 0,1 0,1 -0,7 NL 6,1 6,3 7,2 7,7 1,6 0,0 0,1 0,2 AT 5,3 5,5 6,4 7,2 1,9 0,0 0,1 0,2 PT 6,7 6,8 6,7 7,5 0,8 0,0 0,1 0,2 FI 5,6 5,8 6,8 7,3 1,8 0,0 0,1 0,3 SE 6,7 6,8 7,6 8,0 1,3 0,0 0,1 0,2 UK 7,0 7,2 8,4 9,7 2,6 0,0 0,1 0,4 CY 2,9 3,1 3,6 4,1 1,2 0,0 0,0 0,1 CZ 6,4 6,7 7,8 8,6 2,1 0,0 0,1 0,3 EE 5,4 5,6 6,1 6,5 1,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 HU 5,5 5,7 6,3 6,7 1,2 0,0 0,1 0,2 LT 3,7 3,8 4,2 4,5 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,1 LV 5,1 5,3 5,7 6,1 0,9 0,0 0,1 0,2 MT 4,2 4,5 5,7 6,5 2,3 0,0 0,1 0,3 PL 4,1 4,3 5,0 5,5 1,4 0,0 0,1 0,2 SK 4,4 4,6 5,6 6,3 2,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 SI 6,4 6,6 7,5 8,1 1,6 0,0 0,1 0,2 EU25 6,4 6,6 7,5 8,4 2,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 EU15 6,4 6,7 7,6 8,5 2,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 EU12 6,3 6,5 7,4 8,2 1,9 0,0 0,1 0,3 EU10 4,9 5,1 5,8 6,3 1,4 0,0 0,1 0,2
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – average weighted by GDP
6.2. Improved health scenario
Scenario A-II is labelled the improved health scenario and is inspired by the compression of morbidity hypothesis. It assumes that the number of years spent in bad health during a life time in 2050 actually falls compared to that in 2004, i.e. it involves a shortening of the share of one’s lifespan spent in bad health, so that the morbidity rate falls faster than the mortality rate. The future gains in healthy life expectancy exceed the projected gains total life expectancy. The stylised picture of such process is achieved by progressively shifting the agerelated expenditure profile of the base year along the age axis by more (by a stylised factor) than the projected gains in age and gender specific life expectancy. It is illustrated by dotted line on graph 4-1 in section 4.2 of the report.
Table 6-3 presents the projection results. If healthy life expectancy is assumed to increase twice as fast as total life expectancy, practically all the effects of an ageing population on public spending will be offset by positive developments in health status. Public health care spending is projected to increase by mere 0.3% of GDP in EU15 countries and remain broadly constant in the EU10 countries.
Table 6-3 Projection results for improved health scenario (A-II)
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure ageing scenario
change
2004 2010 2030 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050
BE 6,2 6,1 6,1 6,3 0,1 -0,3 -1,2 -1,4
DK 6,9 6,7 6,6 6,4 -0,4 -0,3 -1,1 -1,5
DE 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,1 0,1 -0,3 -1,0 -1,2
GR 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,8 0,7 -0,2 -0,8 -1,2
ES 6,1 6,0 6,3 7,1 1,0 -0,3 -1,0 -1,2
FR 7,7 7,7 7,9 8,2 0,5 -0,3 -1,1 -1,4
IE 5,3 5,2 5,3 5,7 0,4 -0,3 -1,1 -1,5
IT 5,8 5,7 5,9 6,1 0,4 -0,2 -0,8 -1,0
LU 5,1 5,0 5,0 5,1 0,0 -0,2 -0,8 -1,0
NL 6,1 6,1 6,4 6,4 0,3 -0,1 -0,7 -1,0
AT 5,3 5,2 5,4 5,7 0,4 -0,3 -1,0 -1,3
PT 6,7 6,5 5,7 6,0 -0,7 -0,3 -0,9 -1,3
FI 5,6 5,5 5,8 5,9 0,4 -0,2 -0,9 -1,1
SE 6,7 6,5 6,5 6,4 -0,3 -0,3 -1,0 -1,4
UK 7,0 6,8 6,8 7,2 0,2 -0,4 -1,5 -2,1
CY 2,9 2,9 3,1 3,3 0,4 -0,1 -0,4 -0,7
CZ 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,7 0,3 -0,3 -1,2 -1,6
EE 5,4 5,5 5,1 5,1 -0,3 -0,1 -0,8 -1,2
HU 5,5 5,4 5,2 5,2 -0,3 -0,2 -1,0 -1,3
LT 3,7 3,8 3,7 3,7 0,0 -0,1 -0,5 -0,7
LV 5,1 5,2 4,9 4,9 -0,3 -0,1 -0,7 -1,0
MT 4,2 4,3 4,7 4,8 0,6 -0,3 -0,9 -1,4
PL 4,1 4,1 4,2 4,3 0,2 -0,2 -0,8 -1,1
SK 4,4 4,4 4,6 4,9 0,5 -0,2 -0,9 -1,2
SI 6,4 6,5 6,7 6,9 0,5 -0,2 -0,7 -0,9
EU25 6,4 6,3 6,4 6,7 0,3 -0,3 -1,1 -1,4
EU15 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,8 0,3 -0,3 -1,1 -1,4
EU12 6,3 6,3 6,4 6,7 0,4 -0,3 -1,0 -1,2
EU10 4,9 4,9 4,8 5,0 0,0 -0,2 -0,9 -1,2
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – average weighted by GDP
6.3. EU10 cost convergence
Scenario A-III only covers the EU10 countries (excluding CY and MT) 5 and is meant to
capture the possible effect of a convergence in real living standards (which emerges from the macroeconomic assumptions described in section 2.2 and 2.3) on health care spending. Spending on health care in EU10 (both in nominal terms and as a % of GDP per capita) is well below the levels observed in EU15 countries. By taking the flatter 2004 age-related expenditure profiles as the basis of the health care projections, the projected budgetary impact of ageing will be less evident in the EU10 countries compared to EU15. Scenario A-III assumes that the average age-related expenditure of EU10 countries in the base year 2004 progressively shifts to the average age-related expenditure profile of EU15 countries by 2050.
Table 6-4 presents the projection results. As expected, this scenario would result in a strong convergence in spending on health care as a share of GDP towards the levels observed in the EU15 countries. Average health care spending of the eight EU10 countries would reach 6.7% of GDP in 2050, which is closer to the EU15 average of 8.2% of GDP compared with the projected level of 6.1% of GDP which emerges on the basis of their flatter national age-related expenditure profiles (see graph 4-3 in section 4.2 of the report). On average, spending on health care is projected to increase by 1.7 p.p. of GDP above what is projected using national
5 As shown on graph 4-2 in section 4.2 of the report, the shape of Maltese age-related expenditure profile is more
similar to EU15 than EU10 countries. Consequently, Malta and Cyprus (whose age profile has not been provided) are not included in this simulation.
age-related expenditure profiles, with most of the increase occurring at the end of the projection period. This result suggests that effective managing of expectations regarding health care services in EU10 could play a significant role in controlling health care spending in these countries.
Table 6-4 Projection results for the EU10 cost convergence scenario (A-III)
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure ageing scenario
change
2004 2010 2030 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050
CZ 6,4 6,7 7,8 8,8 2,4 0,0 0,0 0,5
EE 5,4 5,6 6,1 6,8 1,4 0,0 0,2 0,5
HU 5,5 5,7 6,4 7,1 1,6 0,0 0,2 0,6
LT 3,7 3,9 4,3 4,9 1,2 0,0 0,2 0,6
LV 5,1 5,3 5,8 6,5 1,4 0,0 0,2 0,6
PL 4,1 4,3 5,1 5,8 1,7 0,0 0,1 0,4
SK 4,4 4,6 5,4 6,3 1,9 -0,1 -0,1 0,1
SI 6,4 6,8 8,1 9,3 2,8 0,1 0,7 1,4
Weighted average 5,0 5,1 5,9 6,7 1,7 0,0 0,1 0,5
Note: Average weighted by GDP
6.4. Fast cost growth scenarios
Scenario A-IV focuses on unit costs. Public spending on health care depends not only on demographic and health factors driving demand, but also on the supply side factors. Public spending on health care includes inputs such as salaries/wages (from highly educated to unskilled people), investment in capital which is subject of various depreciation schedules (from slowly depreciating buildings and transport infrastructure to fast developing modern IT and medical technologies) and pharmaceuticals. The evolution of total health care spending is in part driven by the evolution of prices for these inputs relative to the evolution of prices for the economy as a whole. In considering the evolution of prices and unit costs for these items, it is important to bear in mind that the health care sector is highly regulated and only to a limited extent subject to the free market competition. For example, pharmaceutical prices are often subject to administrative regulation, and wage developments of health care staff in the public sector may be subject to specific wage bargaining arrangements.
Scenario A-IV is run for all 25 Member States based on an assumption of the fast evolution of unit costs in the entire health care sector. The methodology is identical to the pure ageing scenario (I). The only difference concerns evolution of unit costs, which are no longer assumed to evolve in line with GDP per capita. Instead, they are assumed to grow by 1 percentage point above GDP per capita for the first ten years of the projection exercise (2005- 14) and thereafter, between 2015 and 2050, again according to the ‘normal’ GDP per capita growth rate.
Table 6-5 presents the results for the fast cost growth scenario. Health care spending does appear to be sensitive as regards the assumptions on unit costs. Assuming costs grow by 1 p.p. above GDP per capita, public sending on health care is projected to increase by an additional average of 0.8% of GDP in the EU15 and 0.6% in the EU10.
Table 6-5 Projection results for fast growth scenario (A-IV) – unit costs evolve 1% faster than GDP per capita between 2005 and 2014
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure ageing scenario
change
2004 2010 2030 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050 BE 6,2 6,8 8,0 8,5 2,3 0,4 0,7 0,8 DK 6,9 7,4 8,5 8,8 1,9 0,4 0,8 0,8 DE 6,0 6,7 7,7 8,1 2,1 0,4 0,7 0,8 GR 5,1 5,7 6,5 7,6 2,5 0,3 0,6 0,7 ES 6,1 6,7 8,0 9,2 3,1 0,4 0,7 0,9 FR 7,7 8,5 9,9 10,5 2,8 0,5 0,9 1,0 IE 5,3 5,8 7,0 8,0 2,7 0,3 0,6 0,7 IT 5,8 6,3 7,4 7,9 2,1 0,4 0,7 0,7 LU 5,1 5,6 6,4 6,8 1,7 0,3 0,6 0,6 NL 6,1 6,6 7,8 8,2 2,1 0,4 0,7 0,8 AT 5,3 5,8 7,0 7,7 2,4 0,3 0,6 0,7 PT 6,7 7,2 7,4 8,0 1,3 0,4 0,7 0,7 FI 5,6 6,1 7,3 7,8 2,2 0,3 0,7 0,7 SE 6,7 7,2 8,2 8,6 1,8 0,4 0,8 0,8 UK 7,0 7,6 9,2 10,2 3,2 0,4 0,8 0,9 CY 2,9 3,2 3,9 4,4 1,5 0,2 0,4 0,4 CZ 6,4 7,1 8,5 9,2 2,7 0,4 0,8 0,8 EE 5,4 5,9 6,6 6,9 1,5 0,3 0,6 0,6 HU 5,5 6,0 6,8 7,2 1,7 0,3 0,6 0,7 LT 3,7 4,1 4,5 4,8 1,1 0,2 0,4 0,4 LV 5,1 5,6 6,1 6,5 1,3 0,3 0,5 0,6 MT 4,2 4,8 6,2 6,8 2,6 0,3 0,6 0,6 PL 4,1 4,6 5,5 5,9 1,8 0,3 0,5 0,5 SK 4,4 4,9 6,1 6,8 2,4 0,3 0,5 0,6 SI 6,4 7,0 8,2 8,6 2,2 0,4 0,7 0,8 EU25 6,4 7,0 8,2 8,9 2,5 0,4 0,8 0,8 EU15 6,4 7,1 8,3 9,0 2,6 0,4 0,8 0,8 EU12 6,3 6,9 8,1 8,7 2,4 0,4 0,8 0,8 EU10 4,9 5,4 6,3 6,7 1,8 0,3 0,6 0,6
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – average weighted by GDP
6.5. Extrapolation of costs scenarios
Scenario A-V is run for twelve Member States for which sufficient information is available on the share in total health expenditure of different components (i.e. wages/salaries, capital investment, pharmaceuticals and other items) and on the evolution of unit costs for each of these components. Budgetary projection are run for each component of health care spending under two settings:
• a fast growth variant where unit costs grow by 1 percentage point above GDP per capita for
the first ten years of the projection exercise (2005-14) and thereafter in line with GDP per
capita until 2050;
• an extrapolation of past trends variant where in the base year unit costs grow in line with
the annual average growth rate observed in recent years, then during first ten years of the projection exercise (2005-14) converges to GDP per capita rate of growth, and continues
evolving at this rate until 2050.
Table 6-6 provides a summary of the available data on the composition of health care spending, and on the recent evolution of unit costs. Twelve Member States (BE, ES, IE, IT, PT, SE, CZ, CY, LV, LT, MT, PL) provided data to the AWG which allows to split total spending on health care into at least three different components. For six other countries (DK,
GR, NL, EE, HU, SI), similar data is available in the international WHO database 6 . A word of
caution is warranted, and the data used differs considerably among the Member States.
Table 6-6 also reports the assumptions which have been used in the extrapolation variant of scenario A-V as regards the recent evolution of unit costs for each component of health care spending. In brief, the growth of spending on wages and salaries in the health care sector in the base year 2004 is based on recent developments of gap between growth rate of wages in the health care sector and in the whole economy reported in the OECD STAN database. The rate of growth of investment spending in 2004 is assumed to equal long term nominal interest rates in the economy in the base year, whose values have been taken from internal DG ECFIN databases. Initial rate of growth of pharmaceutical spending is assumed to equal price index of pharmaceuticals based on the average price index of pharmaceuticals in the recent years provided by twelve Member States (GR, ES, FR, IE, IT, PT, SE, UK, CY, LV, LT, PL): for the other countries the data has been taken from the WHO European health for all database.
Fast growth variant of scenario A-V has not been run for DE, FR, LU, AT, FI, UK, SK due to insufficient information on the composition of health care spending. Extrapolation variant has not been run for the same countries as above plus EE, CY, LV, LT, MT, SI for which no data on the recent development in wages and salaries in the health care sector is available. For CZ and HU price index of pharmaceuticals in the first ten years of projection period has been substituted with GDP per capita rate of growth.
77
Table 6-6 Available data on the composition of health care spending and on the recent evolution of unit costs
share of respective components in total public health care spending in % initial rate of change in %
spending on spending on wages and investment pharmaceutical wages and investment pharmaceutical salaries spending spending others** salaries spending spending
BE 41 0 20 40 2,0 4,2 3,1
DK 68 3 5 24 3,1 4,3 -1,2
GR 30 2 22 46 6,5 4,3 0,3
ES 62 3 22 13 3,1 4,1 0,8
IE 66 5 11 18 6,6 4,1 3,9
IT 36 3 15 46 3,8 4,3 -0,1
NL 59 0 11 30 0,7 4,1 -0,3
PT 35 3 9 53 3,4 4,1 0,4
SE 56 3 7 34 2,7 4,4 1,9
CY 44 11 15 30 : 5,8 5,2
CZ 18 5 20 57 3,8 4,8 3,0*
EE 37 3 14 45 : 4,4 :
HU 32 9 23 37 6,9 8,2 4,1*
LT 43 0 17 40 : 4,5 6,9
LV 39 2 9 50 : 4,9 8,3
MT 41 32 24 3 : 4,7 :
PL 29 0 17 55 1,9 6,9 7,5
SI 44 1 14 41 : 4,7 :
*due to lack of data on recent pharmaceutical price developments, GDP per capita rate of growth has been applied
** item 'others' calculated as complement to 100% of three other items
Source: national sources (columns 1-3 and 7), European health for all database (HFA-DB), World Health Organisation Regional
Office for Europe (columns 1-3 and 7, where national data not available), OECD STAN database (column 5), ECFIN database
(column 6), own calculations (column 4)
Table 6-7 and Table 6-8 present the results for the scenarios which are based on the decomposition of total health care spending into four different components, using the data presented in Table 6-6. They show how much total health care spending will change as a result of different assumptions on the initial growth rate of unit cost of respective components of health care spending. Table 6-7 presents the effect of applying to each respective component rate of growth 1 p.p. above GDP per capita during first ten years of projection period. Table 6-8 presents the results of the scenario which is an attempt to capture current trends in the health care costs, by applying current growth rates in unitary costs of each component of health care.
Unsurprisingly, total spending on health care is the most sensitive to changes in the assumptions concerning the growth rate of wages and salaries. As shown in the left panel of Table 6-7, 1% faster growth during first ten years of the projection period is expected to add by 2050 an extra 0.2-0.5% of GDP to total expenditure projected under pure ageing scenario. The same change in the rate of growth of pharmaceutical spending is expected to add only 0.1-0.2% of GDP (see central panel of Table 6-7), whereas practically no effect is expected of the similar change in the rate of change of investment spending (see right panel of Table 6-7).
The effect of changes in the growth rate of wages and salaries on total spending is also the strongest in case of extrapolation variant (see Table 6-8). However, given different current developments in the unit costs results vary considerably across countries. Applying current growth rates of wages adds an extra 0.2-0.5% of GDP to the increase projected under pure ageing scenario in seven countries for which projections can be run (EL, IE, DK, ES, IT, HU, PT). It is the consequence of fast growth in wages and salaries in health care sector as compared to the general economic developments. At the same time, other five countries (PL, NL, BE, SE, CZ) may expect slower or similar growth in health care expenditure as compared to pure demographic scenario, as their current growth rates of wages are lower than GDP per capita.
Using current price index of pharmaceuticals as a driver of pharmaceutical spending over the first ten years of projection period results in a slight decrease in total spending as compared to the pure ageing scenario. In six countries expenditure is projected to grow by less than when spending develops in line with GDP per capita, four should not expect a significant difference, and in two (BE, PL) price developments are projected to contribute to higher grow in health care spending.
As in case of the fast growth variant, changes in the rate of change of investment spending have practically no impact on total health care spending – due to the very small share of public expenditure devoted to this item.
Table 6-7 Projection results for scenario A-V, fast cost growth variant (respective components increasing 1 p.p. above GDP per capita between 2005 and 2014)
Wages* Investment spending* Pharmaceutical spending*
Difference as % of Difference as % of Difference as % of GDP compared to GDP compared to GDP compared to
Projected spending as % of pure ageing Projected spending as % of pure ageing Projected spending as % of pure ageing GDP scenario GDP scenario GDP scenario change change change
2004 2030 2050 2004-2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2004-2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2004-2050 2030 2050 BE 6,2 7,6 8,1 1,9 0,3 0,3 7,3 7,7 1,5 0,0 0,0 7,4 7,9 1,7 0,1 0,2 DK 6,9 8,3 8,5 1,7 0,5 0,6 7,8 8,0 1,1 0,0 0,0 7,8 8,0 1,2 0,0 0,0 GR 5,1 6,1 7,1 2,0 0,2 0,2 5,9 6,9 1,8 0,0 0,0 6,1 7,1 2,0 0,1 0,2 ES 6,1 7,7 8,9 2,7 0,5 0,5 7,3 8,4 2,3 0,0 0,0 7,4 8,5 2,4 0,2 0,2 IE 5,3 6,8 7,7 2,4 0,4 0,5 6,4 7,3 2,0 0,0 0,0 6,5 7,3 2,0 0,1 0,1 IT 5,8 6,9 7,4 1,6 0,3 0,3 6,7 7,2 1,4 0,0 0,0 6,8 7,3 1,5 0,1 0,1 NL 6,1 7,5 7,9 1,8 0,4 0,5 7,1 7,4 1,3 0,0 0,0 7,2 7,5 1,4 0,1 0,1 PT 6,7 6,9 7,5 0,8 0,2 0,3 6,7 7,3 0,6 0,0 0,0 6,7 7,3 0,6 0,1 0,1 SE 6,7 7,9 8,2 1,5 0,4 0,4 7,5 7,8 1,1 0,0 0,0 7,5 7,8 1,1 0,1 0,1 CY 2,9 3,7 4,2 1,3 0,2 0,2 3,6 4,0 1,1 0,0 0,0 3,6 4,0 1,1 0,1 0,1 CZ 6,4 7,9 8,5 2,0 0,1 0,2 7,8 8,4 1,9 0,0 0,0 7,9 8,5 2,1 0,2 0,2 EE 5,4 6,2 6,6 1,1 0,2 0,2 6,0 6,3 0,9 0,0 0,0 6,0 6,4 1,0 0,1 0,1 HU 5,5 6,4 6,7 1,2 0,2 0,2 6,2 6,6 1,1 0,1 0,1 6,3 6,7 1,2 0,1 0,1 LT 3,7 4,3 4,5 0,8 0,2 0,2 4,1 4,4 0,7 0,0 0,0 4,2 4,4 0,7 0,1 0,1 LV 5,1 5,8 6,1 1,0 0,2 0,2 5,6 5,9 0,8 0,0 0,0 5,6 5,9 0,8 0,0 0,1 MT 4,2 5,8 6,4 2,2 0,2 0,3 5,8 6,4 2,2 0,2 0,2 5,7 6,3 2,1 0,1 0,2 PL 4,1 5,1 5,5 1,4 0,1 0,2 5,0 5,4 1,3 0,0 0,0 5,1 5,5 1,4 0,1 0,1 SI 6,4 7,7 8,2 1,7 0,3 0,3 7,4 7,9 1,4 0,0 0,0 7,5 8,0 1,5 0,1 0,1 * component increasing 1 p.p. faster than GDP per capita between 2005 and 2014 and in line with GDP per capita thereafter. Other components evolve in line with GDP per capita over the entire projection period
Table 6-8 Projection results for scenario A-V, extrapolation of past trends variant (respective components following past trends between 2005 and 2014)
Wages* Investment spending* Pharmaceutical spending*
Difference as % of Difference as % of Difference as % of GDP compared to GDP compared to GDP compared to
Projected spending as % of pure ageing Projected spending as % of pure ageing Projected spending as % of pure ageing GDP scenario GDP scenario GDP scenario change change change
2004 2030 2050 2004-2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2004-2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2004-2050 2030 2050 BE 6,2 7,2 7,7 1,5 -0,1 -0,1 7,3 7,7 1,5 0,0 0,0 7,3 7,8 1,6 0,0 0,1 DK 6,9 8,1 8,3 1,5 0,4 0,4 7,8 8,0 1,1 0,0 0,0 7,7 7,9 1,0 -0,1 -0,1 GR 5,1 6,3 7,4 2,3 0,4 0,5 5,9 6,9 1,8 0,0 0,0 5,8 6,7 1,6 -0,1 -0,2 ES 6,1 7,5 8,6 2,5 0,2 0,3 7,3 8,4 2,3 0,0 0,0 7,2 8,2 2,1 -0,1 -0,1 IE 5,3 6,8 7,8 2,5 0,5 0,5 6,4 7,2 2,0 0,0 0,0 6,4 7,2 1,9 0,0 0,0 IT 5,8 7,0 7,5 1,7 0,3 0,3 6,7 7,2 1,4 0,0 0,0 6,6 7,1 1,3 -0,1 -0,1 NL 6,1 6,9 7,3 1,2 -0,2 -0,2 7,1 7,4 1,3 0,0 0,0 7,0 7,4 1,3 -0,1 -0,1 PT 6,7 6,9 7,5 0,8 0,2 0,2 6,7 7,3 0,6 0,0 0,0 6,6 7,2 0,5 0,0 0,0 SE 6,7 7,5 7,8 1,1 0,0 0,0 7,5 7,8 1,1 0,0 0,0 7,4 7,8 1,0 0,0 0,0 CZ 6,4 7,7 8,3 1,9 0,0 0,0 7,7 8,3 1,9 0,0 0,0 7,6 8,2 1,8 -0,1 -0,1 HU 5,5 6,5 6,8 1,3 0,3 0,3 6,3 6,7 1,2 0,1 0,1 6,2 6,5 1,0 0,0 0,0 PL 4,1 4,7 5,1 1,0 -0,3 -0,3 5,0 5,4 1,3 0,0 0,0 5,1 5,5 1,4 0,1 0,1 * component following the past trend between 2005 and 2014 and evolving in line with GDP per capita thereafter. Other components evolve in line with GDP per capita over the entire projection period
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7.D ETAILED RESULTS OF THE PROJECTIONS ON HEALTH CARE
Table 7-1 Pure ageing scenario (I) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,7 7,7 1,5
DK 6,9 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,7 7,8 7,9 7,9 8,0 1,1 DE 6,0 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,3 7,3 1,3 GR 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,2 6,5 6,7 6,9 1,8 ES 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,3 7,6 7,9 8,1 8,3 2,2 FR 7,7 8,0 8,2 8,4 8,7 9,0 9,2 9,4 9,5 9,5 1,8 IE 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,4 6,6 6,9 7,1 7,3 2,0 IT 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,2 1,4 LU 5,1 5,2 5,4 5,5 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,1 6,1 6,2 1,1 NL 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,4 7,4 7,4 1,3 AT 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,9 6,9 1,7 PT 6,7 6,8 6,8 6,7 6,6 6,7 6,9 7,0 7,2 7,3 0,6 FI 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,0 7,0 7,0 1,5 SE 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,7 7,7 7,8 1,0 UK 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,7 8,0 8,3 8,6 8,9 9,1 9,3 2,3 CY 2,9 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,5 3,6 3,7 3,8 3,9 4,0 1,1 CZ 6,4 6,7 7,0 7,3 7,5 7,7 7,9 8,1 8,2 8,3 1,9 EE 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,3 0,9 HU 5,5 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,5 1,0 LT 3,7 3,8 4,0 4,0 4,1 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,3 4,4 0,7 LV 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 5,9 0,7 MT 4,2 4,5 4,8 5,1 5,4 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,2 2,0 PL 4,1 4,3 4,5 4,7 4,8 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 1,3 SK 4,4 4,6 4,8 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,0 6,1 1,8 SI 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,7 7,8 7,8 1,4
EU25 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,7 7,8 8,0 8,1 1,7 EU15 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,2 1,7 EU12 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,6 7,7 7,9 7,9 1,6 EU10 4,9 5,1 5,2 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,1 1,2
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-2 Constant health scenario (II) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,8 6,9 6,9 6,9 0,7
DK 6,9 6,8 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,2 7,2 7,1 7,1 0,3 DE 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,7 0,6 GR 5,1 5,3 5,3 5,3 5,3 5,5 5,7 6,0 6,2 6,3 1,2 ES 6,1 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,3 7,5 7,7 1,6 FR 7,7 7,8 7,9 8,0 8,2 8,4 8,6 8,7 8,8 8,8 1,1 IE 5,3 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,4 1,1 IT 5,8 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,6 0,8 LU 5,1 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,6 0,5 NL 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,8 6,9 6,9 6,9 6,9 0,8 AT 5,3 5,3 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,3 1,0 PT 6,7 6,7 6,5 6,4 6,2 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 -0,1 FI 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,9 6,0 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,4 6,4 0,9 SE 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,8 6,9 6,9 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 0,3 UK 7,0 7,0 7,1 7,1 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,7 7,9 7,9 0,9 CY 2,9 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,6 0,7 CZ 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,5 1,0 EE 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,6 5,7 0,2 HU 5,5 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,7 5,7 5,8 0,3 LT 3,7 3,8 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 3,9 4,0 4,0 4,0 0,3 LV 5,1 5,3 5,3 5,3 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,3 5,3 0,2 MT 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,4 5,5 1,2 PL 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,5 4,6 4,7 4,7 4,8 0,7 SK 4,4 4,5 4,7 4,8 4,9 5,0 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 1,1 SI 6,4 6,6 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,0 7,2 7,2 7,3 7,3 0,9
EU25 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,3 0,9 EU15 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,2 7,3 7,4 0,9 EU12 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,2 0,9 EU10 4,9 5,0 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,4 5,5 0,6
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-3 Death-related costs scenario (III) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,2 7,3 7,3 1,1
DK 6,9 6,9 7,1 7,2 7,4 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,6 7,6 0,7 DE 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,9 6,9 7,0 7,0 1,0 GR 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,4 5,5 5,7 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,5 1,4 ES 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,1 7,4 7,6 7,8 8,0 1,9 FR 7,7 7,9 8,1 8,3 8,5 8,7 8,9 9,0 9,1 9,1 1,4 IE 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,8 1,5 IT 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,2 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,8 6,8 6,8 1,1 LU 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,7 5,8 5,9 5,9 6,0 0,8 NL 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,1 7,1 1,0 AT 5,3 5,4 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 1,3 PT 6,7 6,8 6,7 6,6 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,9 6,9 0,2 FI 5,6 5,7 5,9 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,7 6,7 1,1 SE 6,7 6,8 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,5 7,5 0,7 UK 7,0 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,7 8,0 8,3 8,5 8,7 8,8 1,8 CY 2,9 3,0 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 3,8 0,9 CZ 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,5 7,6 7,7 7,8 1,4 EE 5,4 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,7 5,7 5,8 5,9 5,9 5,9 0,5 HU 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,8 5,9 5,9 5,9 6,0 0,5 LT 3,7 3,8 3,9 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,1 4,1 4,1 0,4 LV 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,4 5,4 5,4 5,4 5,5 5,5 5,5 0,4 MT 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8 5,0 5,1 5,3 5,3 5,3 5,4 1,1 PL 4,1 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 4,8 4,8 4,9 5,0 5,0 0,9 SK 4,4 4,6 4,7 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 1,3 SI 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,4 1,0
EU25 6,4 6,5 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,5 7,6 7,7 1,3 EU15 6,4 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,8 7,8 1,4 EU12 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,4 7,5 7,6 1,3 EU10 4,9 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,4 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,7 0,8
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-4 Scenario capturing income elasticity of demand exceeding unity (IV) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,5 7,7 7,9 8,0 8,0 1,8
DK 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,1 8,2 8,3 1,4 DE 6,0 6,3 6,6 6,9 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,6 1,6 GR 5,1 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,8 6,1 6,4 6,7 7,0 7,2 2,1 ES 6,1 6,3 6,6 6,9 7,2 7,6 7,9 8,2 8,5 8,7 2,6 FR 7,7 8,1 8,4 8,6 8,9 9,2 9,5 9,7 9,8 9,9 2,2 IE 5,3 5,6 5,9 6,1 6,4 6,8 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,7 2,4 IT 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,4 7,4 1,6 LU 5,1 5,4 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 1,5 NL 6,1 6,3 6,6 6,8 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,7 7,7 1,6 AT 5,3 5,5 5,8 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,2 1,9 PT 6,7 6,9 6,9 6,9 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,4 7,5 0,8 FI 5,6 5,8 6,1 6,4 6,6 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,3 7,3 1,8 SE 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,4 7,6 7,8 7,9 8,0 8,1 8,1 1,4 UK 7,0 7,3 7,6 7,9 8,3 8,6 9,0 9,3 9,6 9,7 2,7 CY 2,9 3,1 3,3 3,5 3,6 3,8 3,9 4,0 4,1 4,2 1,3 CZ 6,4 6,8 7,2 7,6 7,9 8,2 8,4 8,6 8,7 8,9 2,4 EE 5,4 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,8 6,9 6,9 1,5 HU 5,5 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,9 6,9 1,4 LT 3,7 4,0 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,8 1,1 LV 5,1 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,5 1,4 MT 4,2 4,6 4,9 5,2 5,5 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,5 2,2 PL 4,1 4,4 4,7 4,9 5,2 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 1,7 SK 4,4 4,7 5,1 5,4 5,7 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,5 6,7 2,3 SI 6,4 6,8 7,0 7,3 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,3 8,3 1,9
EU25 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,2 7,4 7,7 7,9 8,2 8,3 8,4 2,0 EU15 6,4 6,7 7,0 7,3 7,5 7,8 8,1 8,3 8,4 8,5 2,1 EU12 6,3 6,6 6,8 7,1 7,3 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,2 1,9 EU10 4,9 5,2 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 1,7
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-5 Scenario where unit costs evolve in line with GDP per worker (V) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,2 6,3 6,6 7,0 7,4 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,1 1,9
DK 6,9 7,0 7,2 7,5 7,9 8,3 8,5 8,7 8,6 8,6 1,7 DE 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,3 6,6 7,0 7,4 7,6 7,8 7,8 1,8 GR 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,6 6,0 6,5 7,1 7,6 7,9 2,8 ES 6,1 5,9 6,0 6,2 6,5 7,0 7,6 8,3 9,0 9,4 3,3 FR 7,7 7,8 8,0 8,4 8,8 9,2 9,6 9,9 10,0 10,1 2,4 IE 5,3 5,2 5,4 5,6 5,8 6,1 6,4 6,8 7,3 7,7 2,4 IT 5,8 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,2 6,5 7,0 7,4 7,7 7,8 2,0 LU 5,1 4,9 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,1 4,9 -0,2 NL 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,7 7,1 7,6 7,9 8,0 7,9 7,9 1,8 AT 5,3 5,3 5,5 5,7 6,1 6,6 7,0 7,3 7,5 7,6 2,4 PT 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,9 7,3 7,8 8,2 8,5 1,8 FI 5,6 5,7 6,0 6,3 6,7 7,1 7,4 7,5 7,5 7,5 2,0 SE 6,7 6,7 6,9 7,2 7,5 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,1 8,1 1,4 UK 7,0 7,0 7,3 7,6 8,1 8,6 9,2 9,5 9,8 10,0 3,0 CY 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,1 3,4 3,5 3,7 3,8 4,0 4,2 1,3 CZ 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,2 7,6 7,9 8,4 8,9 9,5 9,8 3,4 EE 5,4 5,2 5,2 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,5 1,1 HU 5,5 5,4 5,5 5,7 5,8 6,0 6,3 6,6 6,9 7,1 1,6 LT 3,7 3,5 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,8 3,9 4,1 4,2 4,4 0,7 LV 5,1 4,8 4,8 4,9 5,1 5,2 5,4 5,5 5,8 6,1 0,9 MT 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,9 5,2 5,5 5,7 6,0 6,2 6,4 2,2 PL 4,1 4,0 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8 5,1 5,4 1,3 SK 4,4 4,4 4,3 4,5 4,7 5,0 5,3 5,7 6,2 6,6 2,2 SI 6,4 6,5 6,7 7,1 7,5 8,0 8,4 8,8 9,1 9,4 2,9
EU25 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,8 7,1 7,5 7,9 8,3 8,5 8,7 2,3 EU15 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,9 7,2 7,7 8,1 8,4 8,7 8,8 2,4 EU12 6,3 6,3 6,4 6,6 7,0 7,4 7,8 8,2 8,4 8,5 2,2 EU10 4,9 4,9 4,9 5,0 5,2 5,4 5,7 6,0 6,3 6,6 1,7
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-6 AWG reference scenario (VI) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,6 1,4
DK 6,9 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,7 7,7 7,8 7,8 7,8 1,0 DE 6,0 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,8 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,2 1,2 GR 5,1 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,9 6,2 6,5 6,7 6,8 1,7 ES 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,3 7,6 7,9 8,1 8,3 2,2 FR 7,7 8,0 8,2 8,4 8,6 8,9 9,2 9,3 9,4 9,5 1,8 IE 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,2 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 2,0 IT 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,1 1,3 LU 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,3 1,2 NL 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,4 7,4 7,4 1,3 AT 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,8 6,8 1,6 PT 6,7 6,8 6,8 6,7 6,6 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,2 0,5 FI 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,9 7,0 7,0 7,0 1,4 SE 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,5 7,6 7,7 7,7 7,7 1,0 UK 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,9 8,1 8,4 8,7 8,8 8,9 1,9 CY 2,9 3,1 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,8 3,9 4,0 4,0 1,1 CZ 6,4 6,8 7,1 7,4 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,3 8,4 2,0 EE 5,4 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,5 1,1 HU 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,0 6,2 6,3 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,5 1,0 LT 3,7 4,0 4,2 4,3 4,3 4,4 4,4 4,5 4,6 4,6 0,9 LV 5,1 5,5 5,8 5,8 5,9 5,9 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,2 1,1 MT 4,2 4,5 4,8 5,0 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,0 6,1 1,8 PL 4,1 4,4 4,6 4,8 5,0 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 1,4 SK 4,4 4,7 5,0 5,2 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,0 6,2 6,3 1,9 SI 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,8 7,9 8,0 8,0 1,6
EU25 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,8 7,9 7,9 1,6 EU15 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,7 7,9 8,0 8,1 1,6 EU12 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,7 7,8 7,8 1,5 EU10 4,9 5,2 5,4 5,5 5,7 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,2 1,3
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-7 High life expectancy scenario (A-I) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,6 7,8 7,9 8,0 1,8
DK 6,9 7,0 7,2 7,5 7,7 7,8 7,9 8,0 8,1 8,2 1,4 DE 6,0 6,3 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,7 7,7 1,7 GR 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,6 5,7 6,0 6,4 6,7 7,0 7,2 2,1 ES 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,4 7,7 8,1 8,3 8,6 2,5 FR 7,7 8,0 8,2 8,5 8,7 9,1 9,4 9,6 9,7 9,8 2,1 IE 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,2 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,3 7,5 2,2 IT 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,4 1,6 LU 5,1 5,3 5,7 5,9 6,0 5,9 5,8 5,7 5,6 5,5 0,4 NL 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,5 7,6 7,7 1,6 AT 5,3 5,5 5,7 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,2 1,9 PT 6,7 6,8 6,8 6,7 6,7 6,7 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,5 0,8 FI 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,3 1,8 SE 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,7 7,9 8,0 8,0 1,3 UK 7,0 7,2 7,5 7,7 8,1 8,4 8,8 9,2 9,4 9,7 2,6 CY 2,9 3,1 3,2 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,8 3,9 4,0 4,1 1,2 CZ 6,4 6,7 7,0 7,3 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,2 8,4 8,6 2,1 EE 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 1,1 HU 5,5 5,7 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 1,2 LT 3,7 3,8 4,0 4,1 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,5 0,8 LV 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,1 0,9 MT 4,2 4,5 4,8 5,1 5,4 5,7 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,5 2,3 PL 4,1 4,3 4,5 4,7 4,9 5,0 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 1,4 SK 4,4 4,6 4,9 5,1 5,4 5,6 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,3 2,0 SI 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,3 7,5 7,7 7,8 8,0 8,1 1,6
EU25 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,3 7,5 7,8 8,0 8,2 8,4 2,0 EU15 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,4 7,6 7,9 8,2 8,4 8,5 2,0 EU12 6,3 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,7 7,9 8,1 8,2 1,9 EU10 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,4 5,6 5,8 5,9 6,1 6,2 6,3 1,4
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-8 Improved health scenario (A-II) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,1 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,3 6,3 0,1
DK 6,9 6,7 6,6 6,6 6,7 6,6 6,6 6,5 6,5 6,4 -0,4 DE 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,1 6,1 6,1 0,1 GR 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,1 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,8 0,7 ES 6,1 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,1 1,0 FR 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,7 7,9 8,0 8,1 8,1 8,2 0,5 IE 5,3 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 0,4 IT 5,8 5,7 5,7 5,8 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,1 6,1 6,1 0,4 LU 5,1 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 0,0 NL 6,1 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,4 0,3 AT 5,3 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,7 0,4 PT 6,7 6,5 6,3 6,1 5,8 5,7 5,8 5,9 5,9 6,0 -0,7 FI 5,6 5,5 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,0 5,9 0,4 SE 6,7 6,5 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,4 6,4 6,4 -0,3 UK 7,0 6,8 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,2 7,2 0,2 CY 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,3 0,4 CZ 6,4 6,4 6,4 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,6 6,6 6,7 0,3 EE 5,4 5,5 5,4 5,3 5,2 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 5,1 -0,3 HU 5,5 5,4 5,3 5,3 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 -0,3 LT 3,7 3,8 3,8 3,8 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7 0,0 LV 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,1 5,0 4,9 4,9 4,9 4,9 4,9 -0,3 MT 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,8 0,6 PL 4,1 4,1 4,1 4,1 4,1 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,2 4,3 0,2 SK 4,4 4,4 4,5 4,6 4,6 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,8 4,9 0,5 SI 6,4 6,5 6,5 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,9 6,9 6,9 0,5
EU25 6,4 6,3 6,3 6,3 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,6 6,7 0,3 EU15 6,4 6,4 6,3 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,8 0,3 EU12 6,3 6,3 6,3 6,3 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,7 0,4 EU10 4,9 4,9 4,9 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,9 4,9 4,9 5,0 0,0
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-9 EU10 cost convergence scenario (A-III) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 CZ 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,2 7,5 7,8 8,0 8,3 8,5 8,8 2,4
EE 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,9 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,8 1,4 HU 5,5 5,7 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 1,6 LT 3,7 3,9 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,5 4,7 4,8 4,9 1,2 LV 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,5 1,4 PL 4,1 4,3 4,5 4,7 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,6 5,8 1,7 SK 4,4 4,6 4,7 5,0 5,2 5,4 5,6 5,9 6,1 6,3 1,9 SI 6,4 6,8 7,1 7,4 7,7 8,1 8,4 8,8 9,0 9,3 2,8 Weighted average 5,0 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 1,7
Note: average weighted by GDP
Table 7-10 Fast cost growth scenario (unit costs growing 1 p.p. above GDP per capita between 2005 and 2014) (A-IV) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,8 7,3 7,5 7,7 8,0 8,2 8,4 8,5 8,5 2,3
DK 6,9 7,4 7,9 8,2 8,4 8,5 8,6 8,7 8,7 8,8 1,9 DE 6,0 6,7 7,2 7,4 7,5 7,7 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,1 2,1 GR 5,1 5,7 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,9 7,2 7,4 7,6 2,5 ES 6,1 6,7 7,1 7,4 7,7 8,0 8,4 8,7 9,0 9,2 3,1 FR 7,7 8,5 9,1 9,3 9,6 9,9 10,2 10,3 10,4 10,5 2,8 IE 5,3 5,8 6,2 6,4 6,7 7,0 7,3 7,6 7,8 8,0 2,7 IT 5,8 6,3 6,7 6,9 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,8 7,9 7,9 2,1 LU 5,1 5,6 5,9 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,5 6,7 6,8 6,8 1,7 NL 6,1 6,6 7,1 7,4 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,2 8,2 2,1 AT 5,3 5,8 6,3 6,5 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,7 2,4 PT 6,7 7,2 7,5 7,4 7,3 7,4 7,6 7,8 7,9 8,0 1,3 FI 5,6 6,1 6,6 6,8 7,1 7,3 7,6 7,7 7,8 7,8 2,2 SE 6,7 7,2 7,7 7,9 8,1 8,2 8,4 8,5 8,5 8,6 1,8 UK 7,0 7,6 8,2 8,5 8,8 9,2 9,5 9,8 10,1 10,2 3,2 CY 2,9 3,2 3,5 3,7 3,8 3,9 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 1,5 CZ 6,4 7,1 7,7 8,0 8,3 8,5 8,7 8,9 9,0 9,2 2,7 EE 5,4 5,9 6,3 6,4 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,9 6,9 1,5 HU 5,5 6,0 6,4 6,5 6,7 6,8 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,2 1,7 LT 3,7 4,1 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,5 4,6 4,7 4,8 4,8 1,1 LV 5,1 5,6 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,4 6,5 1,3 MT 4,2 4,8 5,3 5,6 5,9 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,8 2,6 PL 4,1 4,6 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 1,8 SK 4,4 4,9 5,3 5,6 5,8 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,8 2,4 SI 6,4 7,0 7,5 7,7 7,9 8,2 8,3 8,5 8,6 8,6 2,2
EU25 6,4 7,0 7,5 7,7 7,9 8,2 8,4 8,6 8,8 8,9 2,5 EU15 6,4 7,1 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,3 8,6 8,8 8,9 9,0 2,6 EU12 6,3 6,9 7,4 7,6 7,8 8,1 8,3 8,5 8,7 8,7 2,4 EU10 4,9 5,4 5,8 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,7 6,7 1,8
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
Table 7-11 Extrapolation of past trends scenario (all components following past trends between 2005 and 2014) (A-V) : projected spending on health care as % of GDP
Projected spending as % of GDP change
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2004-2050 BE 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,7 7,7 1,5
DK 6,9 7,2 7,5 7,7 7,9 8,1 8,1 8,2 8,2 8,3 1,4 DE 6,0 6,4 6,6 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,4 1,4 GR 5,1 5,5 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,2 6,5 6,8 7,1 7,2 2,1 ES 6,1 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,1 7,4 7,8 8,1 8,3 8,5 2,4 FR 7,7 7,9 8,1 8,3 8,5 8,8 9,1 9,2 9,3 9,4 1,7 IE 5,3 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,5 6,8 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,7 2,4 IT 5,8 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,7 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,4 1,6 LU 5,1 5,2 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,8 5,9 6,1 6,1 6,2 1,1 NL 6,1 6,1 6,2 6,5 6,7 6,9 7,0 7,1 7,2 7,2 1,1 AT 5,3 5,5 5,8 6,0 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,0 1,8 PT 6,7 7,0 7,0 6,9 6,8 6,9 7,1 7,2 7,4 7,5 0,8 FI 5,6 6,0 6,3 6,6 6,8 7,1 7,3 7,4 7,5 7,5 1,9 SE 6,7 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,7 7,8 7,8 1,1 UK 7,0 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,8 8,2 8,5 8,8 9,0 9,1 2,1 CY 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 3,7 0,8 CZ 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,2 1,8 EE 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,1 6,1 0,7 HU 5,5 6,0 6,2 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,7 6,8 6,9 7,0 1,5 LT 3,7 3,7 3,8 3,9 3,9 4,0 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,2 0,5 LV 5,1 5,1 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6 5,6 0,5 MT 4,2 4,8 5,2 5,5 5,8 6,0 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,7 2,5 PL 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,5 4,7 4,8 4,9 5,0 5,1 5,2 1,1 SK 4,4 4,5 4,7 4,9 5,2 5,4 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,0 1,6 SI 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,6 7,7 7,7 1,3
EU25 6,4 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,7 7,9 8,0 8,1 1,7 EU15 6,4 6,7 6,9 7,1 7,3 7,6 7,8 8,0 8,1 8,2 1,8 EU12 6,3 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,8 7,9 8,0 1,7 EU10 4,9 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,5 5,6 5,8 5,9 6,0 6,1 1,1
Note: EU25, EU15, EU12 and EU10 – averages weighted by GDP
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8.D ATA USED TO MAKE THE PROJECTIONS ON L ONG - TERM CARE
In order to run the projections on long-term care, the following data inputs are needed for each year of the projection exercise:
• Population by age group and gender: the AWG scenario population projection is used;
• Prevalence rates of dependency by age and gender: for the countries for which it is
available, the model currently uses age and gender-specific rates from the SHARE project. The prevalence rates can be either kept constant or assumed to change over time to reflect
expected changes;
• Probability of receiving different types of long-term care by age and gender: this is
calculated in the base year, using estimates on the numbers of people with dependency and data on the numbers of people receiving formal care at home and the numbers of dependent people in long-term care institutions. It is proposed to assume that the difference between the total number of dependent people and the total number of people receiving formal care (at home or in institutions) is the number of people who rely exclusively on informal care, or no care. This assumption was also used in the European Study of Long-Term Care
Expenditure (see Pickard 2003, page 187, for a discussion);
• Average public expenditure per individual (for formal care at home and institutional care):
these figures are obtained by dividing total public expenditure on formal care at home/institutional care by the total number of users of formal care at home and the total
number of dependent residents in institutions, respectively;
• Public expenditure in disability-related benefits: this is obtained from estimates from each
country.
In order to calculate these variables, AWG members were asked to provide data on national sources on:
• age-specific public long-term care expenditure profiles;
• total public long-term care expenditure;
• total public expenditure on institutional care;
• total public expenditure on home care;
• total public expenditure on long-term care cash benefits;
• number of dependent users of institutional care, by five-year age group and gender;
• number of dependent users of home care, by five-year age group and gender.
• number of recipients of cash benefits, by five-year age group and gender.
Table 8-1 provides a detailed description of data received from Member States.
Table 8-1 Detailed description of data received on long-term care
I n d ic a to r P o s s ib l e A v a ila b ili ty s p li t
B E D K D E G R E S F R I E I T L U N L A T P T
T o ta l p u b lic s p e n d in g o n lo n g - in e u r o s 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 X 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 X 2 0 0 3 X
te r m c a r e
P e r c a p ita p u b lic s p e n d in g o n M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 1 m /f 2 0 0 3 m /f 2 0 0 4 to ta l X X X X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 3 m /f to ta l X X
lo n g -te rm c a r e
S in g le y e a r 0 , … , 1 0 0 + 0 , … , 1 0 0 0 , … , 9 9 X X
5 0 -5 4 , … , 0 - 1 4 , 1 5 - 1 9 ,
5 - y e a r c o h o r ts 0 - 4 , … , 9 5 + 1 0 0 + … , 9 0 + 0 -4 , … , 9 5 +
T o ta l n u m b e r o f d e p e n d e n t p e o p le r e c e iv in g lo n g -te rm c a r e M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 3 m /f 2 0 0 5 to ta l 2 0 0 4 to ta l X 2 0 0 3 m /f X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 1 m /f X X in in s titu tio n s
S in g le y e a r X X < 6 4 , 6 5 + X 5 5 , … , 9 9 + X X
0 - 1 8 , 1 9 -3 9 , < 4 0 , 4 0 - 6 4 ,
5 - y e a r c o h o r ts < 6 0 , 6 0 - 6 4 ; 0 - 1 4 , 1 5 - 1 9 , X < 6 5 , > 8 0 X 6 5 - 6 9 , 0 -4 , … , 9 0 + 3 9 - 5 9 , 6 0 - X X
… , 9 5 + … , 9 0 + 6 9 , 7 0 - 7 9 ,
… 9 5 + 8 0 -8 9 , 9 0 +
T o ta l n u m b e r o f d e p e n d e n t p e o p le r e c e iv in g lo n g -te rm c a r e M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 3 m /f 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 4 to ta l X 2 0 0 3 m /f X X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 X X X a t h o m e
S in g le y e a r X X X X X X X
< 6 0 , 6 0 - 6 4 ; < 6 5 , 6 5 - 6 6 , 0 - 1 4 , 1 5 - 1 9 , 5 - y e a r c o h o r ts X < 8 0 , > 8 0 X X 0 -4 , … , 9 0 + X X X X
… , 9 5 + 6 7 - 7 9 , 8 0 + … , 9 0 +
T o ta l p u b lic e x p e n d itu r e o n lo n g - in e u r o s 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 X X X
te r m in s titu tio n a l c a r e
T o ta l p u b lic e x p e n d itu r e o n lo n g - in e u r o s 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 X X X
te r m c a r e a t h o m e
T o ta l n u m b e r o f r e c ip ie n ts o f lo n g -te rm c a r e -re la te d c a s h M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 3 to ta l X 2 0 0 3 to ta l X 2 0 0 3 m /f X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 X 2 0 0 3 to ta l 2 0 0 4 m /f X b e n e f its
S in g le y e a r X 0 ,1 , … , 9 9 + X
0 -4 , 6 0 -6 4 ,
5 - y e a r c o h o r ts … , 6 5 + 0 -4 , … , 9 0 + X X
T o ta l p u b lic e x p e n d itu r e o n lo n g - in e u r o s 2 0 0 3 to ta l 2 0 0 3 X X X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 X 2 0 0 3 to ta l 2 0 0 4 X
te r m c a r e -r e la te d c a s h b e n e fits I n d ic a t o r P o s s ib l e A v a i l a b i l it y
s p l i t
F I S E U K C Y C Z E E H U L T L V M T P L S K
T o ta l p u b lic s p e n d in g o n lo n g - in e u r o s 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 2 /0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3
te r m c a r e
P e r c a p i ta p u b lic s p e n d in g o n
M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 2 /0 3 X 2 0 0 3 m /f X X 2 0 0 4 m /f 2 0 0 3 m /f 2 0 0 3 m /f m /f X lo n g -te r m c a r e
S in g le y e a r 0 , … , 1 0 0 + 0 , … , 1 0 0 + 0 , … , 1 0 0 + X
0 -4 , … , < 6 0 , 6 0 -6 4 , 5 -y e a r c o h o r ts 0 -4 , … , 9 5 + 1 , … , 1 0 0 0 -4 , … , 8 5 + X
1 0 0 + … , 8 0 +
T o ta l n u m b e r o f d e p e n d e n t
p e o p le r e c e iv i n g lo n g -t e r m c a r e 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 to ta l M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 3 to ta l 2 0 0 3 to ta l e s tim a te m /f X 2 0 0 3 to ta l X X 2 0 0 4 m /f 2 0 0 3 m /f 2 0 0 3 m /f 2 0 0 4 to ta l m /f 2 0 0 4
in i n s t itu tio n s
S in g le y e a r 0 , … , 1 0 0 0 -4 , … 1 0 0 + X
0 -6 4 , … , 6 5 -6 9 , … , 5 -y e a r c o h o r ts 6 5 , .. , 1 0 0 X X
8 5 + 8 5 +
T o ta l n u m b e r o f d e p e n d e n t
p e o p le r e c e iv i n g lo n g -t e r m c a r e M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 3 to ta l 2 0 0 3 to ta l 2 0 0 2 X 2 0 0 3 to ta l X X 2 0 0 4 m /f 2 0 0 4 to ta l 2 0 0 3 to ta l 2 0 0 4 to ta l 2 0 0 3 to ta l to ta l
a t h o m e
S in g le y e a r X X X
5 -y e a r c o h o r ts 0 -6 4 ; 6 5 -7 4 ; 6 5 , .. , 1 0 0 X X X
7 5 -8 4 ; 8 5 +
T o ta l p u b lic e x p e n d itu r e o n in e u r o s 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 2 / 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 3 X X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3
lo n g -te r m in s tit u t io n a l c a r e
T o ta l p u b lic e x p e n d itu r e o n in e u r o s 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 2 / 2 0 0 3 X 2 0 0 3 X X 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 3
lo n g -te r m c a r e a t h o m e
T o ta l n u m b e r o f r e c ip ie n t s o f lo n g -te r m c a r e -r e la t e d c a s h M a le , F e m a le 2 0 0 3 to ta l X X X X X X 2 0 0 4 to ta l X 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 to ta l 2 0 0 4 to ta l b e n e f its
S in g le y e a r
5 -y e a r c o h o r ts 0 -4 ; 9 5 +
T o ta l p u b lic e x p e n d itu r e o n
b e n e f its
88
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9.A DDITIONAL SCENARIOS FOR PUBLIC SPENDING ON LONG - TERM CARE
Table 9-1 presents the overview of additional scenarios (sensitivity tests) that complement the analysis of factors affecting public long term care spending presented in chapter 5 of the report.
Table 9-1 Overview of additional scenarios for public spending on long-term care
High life Improved Increase in Increase in
expectancy disability formal care - all formal care - all
scenario in the home in institutions
A-I A-II A-III A-IV
Population AWG scenario - AWG scenario - AWG scenario - AWG scenario -
projection high life expectancy baseline baseline baseline
Disability status Disability rates Age-specific Disability rates Disability rates
over time held constant at disability rates held constant at held constant at
2004 level fall twice as fast 2004 level 2004 level
as age-specific
mortality rates
(compression of
morbidity)
Policy setting Probability of Probability of 1% p.a. decrease 1% p.a. decrease
receiving care receiving care in number of in number of
held constant at held constant at persons receiving persons receiving
2004 level 2004 level informal care up informal care up
to 2020 all going to 2020 all going
to home care to institutions
Unit costs GDP per worker GDP per worker GDP per worker GDP per worker
9.1. High life expectancy scenario
Scenario A-I examines the impact of higher life expectancy on long-term care spending. It is based on the same assumptions as the pure ageing scenario (I) presented in chapter 4, except that it uses the high life expectancy population projection rather than the AWG population scenario: for more details, see chapter 2 in EPC and European Commission (2005a).
On average, public expenditure on long-term care is projected to increase by close to 1 p.p. of GDP over the period 2004-2050. A mildly stronger increase is projected compared to the pure ageing scenario over the whole projection period. Public expenditure on long-term care starts increasing faster than under the pure ageing scenario after 2040. Such results illustrate the demographic effect of higher life expectancy, whereby people live longer and require longterm care services for a longer period of time. This effect has not fully materialised before the end of the projection period.
Table 9-2 Projection results for the “high life expectancy” scenario (A-I)
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure demographic scenario
2004 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050
BE 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.2
DK 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.3
DE 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.2
GR
ES 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
FR
IE 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
IT 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
LU 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.3
NL 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
AT 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
PT
FI 1.7 1.9 2.3 3.3 4.1 4.3 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.3
SE 3.8 3.8 4.0 5.6 6.2 6.9 3.0 0.0 0.2 0.6
UK 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
CY
CZ 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
EE
HU
LT 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
LV 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
MT 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
PL 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SK 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
SI 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.2
EU25 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
EU15 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
EU10 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Note: EU25, EU15 and EU10 – average weighted by GDP
9.2. Improved disability scenario
The improved disability scenario (scenario A-II) is inspired by the compression of morbidity hypothesis. It assumes that the number of years spent in bad health and with disability during a life time is lower in 2050 compared to that in 2004, i.e. it involves a shortening of the share of one’s lifespan spent with disability, so that the age-specific disability rate falls twice as fast as the mortality rate.
Table 9-3 presents the projection results. If disability rates are assumed to fall twice as fast as mortality rates, practically all the effects of an ageing population on public spending will be offset by positive developments in the disability status. Public long-term care spending is projected to remain broadly constant.
Table 9-3 Projection results for the “improved disability” scenario (A-II)
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure demographic scenario
2004 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050 BE 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 DK 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -1.3 DE 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 GR
ES 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 FR IE 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 IT 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 LU 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 NL 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 AT PT FI 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.4 -0.1 -1.0 -1.9 SE 3.8 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.2 -0.6 -0.3 -1.8 -3.1 UK 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 CY CZ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 EE HU LT 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 LV 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 MT 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 PL 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 SK 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 SI 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0
EU25 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 EU15 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 EU10 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 Note: EU25, EU15 and EU10 – average weighted by GDP
9.3. Increase in formal care – all people receive formal care at home
Scenario A-III examines the impact of a change in policy setting in which the supply of informal or no care is assumed to decrease by 1% p.a. until 2020 with the people who no longer receive informal or no care receiving formal care at home.
Table 9-4 shows the projection results. The increase in supply of formal care leads to higher public expenditure on long-term care as compared to the “pure ageing scenario”. If the people who used to receive informal or no care are assumed to receive formal care at home, public spending over the projection period would increase by 1.3 p.p. (1.4 p.p. in the EU15 and a mere 0.4 p.p. in the EU10). The projected increase is lower than in the scenario IV in chapter 5 which assumes the same increase in the population receiving formal care, but where the population is split in two, with half of the people receiving formal care at home and the other half receiving care in institutions. This is explained by the difference in unit cost of the two types of care services, with formal care at home being less costly than formal care in institutions.
Table 9-4 Projection results for the scenario “increase in formal care” (A-III)
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure demographic scenario
2004 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050 BE 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 DK
DE 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 GR ES 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 FR IE 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 IT 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 LU 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 NL 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 AT PT FI 1.7 2.0 2.4 3.5 4.2 4.3 2.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 SE 3.8 3.8 4.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 UK 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.0 3.1 0.4 1.4 2.0 CY CZ 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 EE HU LT 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 LV 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 MT 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 PL 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 SK 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 SI 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
EU25 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 EU15 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 EU10 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1
Note: EU25, EU15 and EU10 – average weighted by GDP
9.4. Increase in formal care – all people receive formal care in institutions
Scenario A-IV examines the impact of a similar change in policy setting, where the people who no longer receive informal or no care is assumed to receive formal care in institutions. This scenario explores the policy option of providing formal care in institutions, which is relatively more costly than formal care at home. Table 9-5 shows the projection results. The increase in supply of formal care leads to higher public expenditure on long-term care; public spending over the projection period would increase by 1.6 p.p. (1.7 p.p. in the EU15 and 0.8 p.p. in the EU10).
Table 9-5 Projection results for the scenario “increase in formal care” (A-IV)
Projected spending as % of GDP Difference as % of GDP compared to pure demographic scenario
2004 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2004-2050 2010 2030 2050
BE 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.4 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.3
DK
DE 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.2 2.2 0.2 0.6 0.9
GR
ES 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.2 0.6 1.3
FR
IE 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.5
IT 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.9 2.3 0.3 0.9 1.5
LU 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.6
NL 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.8 0.4 1.4 2.1
AT
PT
FI 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.9 4.7 4.8 3.1 0.2 0.7 0.9
SE 3.8 4.0 4.4 6.0 6.5 7.1 3.3 0.2 0.7 0.8
UK 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.2 0.3 0.8 1.2
CY
CZ 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.4
EE
HU
LT 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.6 1.0
LV 0.4 1.2 2.6 3.0 3.7 4.6 4.2 0.8 2.4 3.7
MT 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
PL 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4
SK 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.6
SI 0.9 1.5 2.3 2.9 4.0 4.7 3.8 0.4 1.3 2.3
EU25 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.8
EU15 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.5 0.8
EU10 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.5
Note: EU25, EU15 and EU10 – average weighted by GDP
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10.M ETHODOLOGY FOR CORE PROJECTIONS OF UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT
EXPENDITURE
In order to assess whether and by how much the projected changes in labour market performance will affect UB expenditure (as % of GDP), a simple methodology has been used.
The basic approach applied to the projections of UB expenditure generates projections of UB expenditure, expressed as a share of GDP, where average expenditure per head grows at the same rate as GDP per worker in each projection year.
Step 1 - Estimation of current per capita expenditure
In order to obtain current per capita spending, total UB expenditure (UB) in the base year can be decomposed according to the following identity :
ub = UB
b b
pc UP b
Where b UB = total expenditure on UB in base year in national currency;
b
UP = numbers of unemployed persons in base year;
ub b pc = average UB expenditures for each unemployed persons in base
year expressed in national currency;
b = base year.
Step 2 Expressing per capita expenditure in terms of productivity level (GDP per employed person)
Base year UB expenditure for unemployed person ( ub b pc ) can be deflated by base-year GDP
per worker, such that:
b
yub b = ( ub pc pc GDP b E b )
where: b yub = pc average UB expenditure for each unemployed person in the base
year b, expressed as a share of base year GDP per worker;
E b = total employment in base year; and
GDP b = national GDP in base year.
Step 3 Matching the base-year profiles to the future labour market structure
The “deflated” per capita expenditure for the base year b yub is then matched to the pc
unemployment vector UP t for each of the projection years t from 2000-2050 as follows:
b
yub ub
b UB t
pc
pc * UP
t = ( ) × t =
GDP b E b UP ( GDP t E t )
where t UB = projected total UB expenditure in projection year t (the bar
above the variable denotes that it is projection); and
This step generates the projected total UB expenditure expressed as a share of GDP per worker, under the implicit assumption that UB expenditure per head grows at the same rate as GDP per worker. This, in turn, implies (see equation 3 in the main test) unchanged unemployment benefit schemes (mainly gross replacement rates, coverage, take-up ratio) and a constant wage share in income distribution, that is, average wage per capita grows at the same rate as labour productivity (GDP per worker).
Step 4 - Expressing the results as a share of projected national GDP for each projection year
The results can then be expressed in terms of projected national GDP for each of the projection years by dividing by projected employment levels as follows:
UB t b t = yub pc ∗ UP
GDP t E t
Thus, projections of UB expenditure as a share of GDP can be generated using only UB expenditure and GDP levels in the base year, and existing projections for the unemployed and employed persons.
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11.T HE A PPROACH USED AT EU LEVEL TO ASSESS THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC
FINANCES
11.1. Background and approach
11.1.1. The mandate from the European Council
The projected demographic change, with the old-age dependency ratio doubling over the coming decades in the EU, has led to growing concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of public finances. Since the launch of the euro, in 1999, the EU has sought to integrate an examination of the sustainability of public finances into the existing EU framework for the surveillance of Member States’ economic and budgetary policies, in line with the conclusions of the Stockholm (March 2001). The Stockholm Council agreed that it should regularly review the long-term sustainability of public finances, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead in the context of the stability and convergence programmes and outlined a three-pronged strategy to address the economic and budgetary consequences of ageing populations, i.e. reducing public debt at a fast pace, raising employment rates especially amongst women and older workers, and reforms of pensions and health-care systems including appropriate recourse to the funding of public pensions.
The importance attached to ensure sustainability of public finances was confirmed by the Barcelona European Council in March 2002 and the March 2003 ECOFIN Council. In addition, the 20 March 2005 ECOFIN Council emphasised long-term sustainability issues in
the context of the agreement of the 2005 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact 9 .
Specifically, the Council stressed that sufficient attention should be given in the surveillance of budgetary positions to debt and sustainability so as to safeguard the sustainability of public finances in the long run.
The Commission and the Council is therefore regularly producing the assessment of long-term sustainability of public finances in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact. These assessments are an integral part of budgetary surveillance of the Stability and Convergence
Programmes 10 . An overview of the assessments of public finance sustainability is available in the Commission’s Public Finances in EMU reports 11 .
9 The new Stability and Growth Pact entered into force with the adoption of: (i) Council Regulation (EC) No
1055/2005 amending Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 i on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies; and, (ii) Council Regulation (EC) No 1056/2005 i amending Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 i on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the
excessive deficit procedure.
10 See the Commission’s web-site for all information relating to the implementation of budgetary surveillance and
the Stability and Growth Pact, available at: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/main_en.htm.
11 See European Commission (2005), Public Finances in EMU – 2005 and earlier editions of this report,
available at: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/publicfinance_en.htm
11.1.2. An assessment based on quantitative indicators and qualitative
information
In the absence of an agreed definition in the literature as to what constitutes a sustainable public finance position, a pragmatic approach was adopted. Sustainability of public finances is assessed against the government’s intertemporal budget constraint and the budgetary requirements of EMU; in particular, the Treaty requirement to keep debt levels below the 60% of GDP. At the same time, it was recognised that sustainability of public finances is a multifaceted policy challenge. Aside from avoiding deficits and debt accumulation, sustainability in addition requires that tax burdens remain at reasonable levels and that other non-age-related expenditures (infrastructure, R&D) are not squeezed out.
In recognition of this, the Commission’s and the Council’s assessments examines both quantitative and qualitative information, aiming at capturing the degree of budgetary risks associated with current policies and ageing populations. The approach to assess public finance sustainability in the EU has been broadly similar since 2001 when the first exercise was carried out, though it is important to note that a number of improvements have been undertaken in order to enhance the quality of the assessment.
In view of ensuring comparable analysis and assessments of the sustainability of public finances in the EU, the EPC considers that long-term projections made within the context of the common projections exercise should be used. The importance of the common budgetary projections is underlined by the 2005 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact and the Code of Conduct, according to which the common projections should be included in the annual stability and convergence programmes. These projections will form the basis of the assessment of public finance sustainability. This will contribute to increase the comparability of the projections across countries, with positive effects on the assessment of public finance
sustainability made by the Commission and the Council 12 .
11.1.3. Projecting debt on the basis of long-term budgetary projections
The main quantitative tool used in the EU surveillance of sustainability of public finances is extrapolation of debt, with budgetary developments incorporating long-term projections of government expenditure that evolve in line with demographic projections, thus indicating the budgetary impact of ageing populations. Based on the long-term budgetary projections, sustainability gap indicators provide a gauge of the scale of budgetary adjustment required for a Member State to reach a sustainable public finance position over the long term as measured by the different definitions used.
The extrapolation of the debt to GDP ratio relies on several assumptions:
Tax revenues remain constant as a share of GDP over the projection period 13 ;
12 The new Code of Conduct, the ‘Specifications on the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and
Guidelines on the format and content of Stability and Convergence Programmes’ is available at: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/codeofconduct_en.pdf
13 The EPC (2001) considered that if national projections of changes in the revenue-to-GDP ratio due to ageing
populations are available, they should be considered by the Commission and the Council in their assessments of public finance sustainability. In the 2004 assessment round of the Stability and Convergence Programmes made by the Commission and the Council, changes in the tax ratio were included in the Stability and
Projected age-related related expenditures evolve in line with the available
demographic projections;
Non-age related primary expenditures remain constant as a share of GDP at the last
year covered by the programme over the projection period 14 ;
The GDP deflator is fixed at 2% for the whole projection period;
The GDP real growth rate is country specific and is projected using the commonly
agreed assumptions in the current exercise 15 ;
an assumption of a real interest rate of 3% for all countries is made in the current
exercise 16 .
The treatment of temporary budgetary effects due to the cycle or to one-off measures has developed significantly over time. In the first two waves of assessment (2001 and 2002), the budgetary position of the last year of the programme was measured in nominal terms (not adjusted for the cycle). This implied that temporary budgetary effects were assumed constant over time. Since the 2003 assessment, the budgetary figures have been corrected for the cycle and in the 2004 assessment they were also corrected for one-off measures.
The debt concept used by the Commission is Maastricht gross debt. However, governments may hold assets which contribute positively to the sustainability of public finances. Since reducing debt or accumulating liquid assets in public pension schemes, has a similar effect on fiscal sustainability – with the latter strategy however not reflected in the gross debt measure – these are taken into account in the analysis of public finances sustainability, i.e. an adjusted gross debt measure is calculated (see Annex 11). For several countries, this adjustment has a profound impact on the evolution of debt.
These debt projections are made assuming that stock-flow adjustments (SFA) are zero over the projection period. Existing plans (e.g. privatisations that affect debt but not the deficit) are included during the period covered by the programme according to information provided in the SCPs).
It is important to recall that the purpose of debt extrapolation is to signal possible imbalances on the basis of current policies and projected age-related expenditure trends. However, being a
mechanical, partial equilibrium analysis 17 , projections are in some cases bound to show highly
Convergence Programmes for seven Member States (Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia), which were incorporated in the sustainability analysis.
14 These include mainly public investment, other social expenditure apart from education, health and pensions, purchases
of goods and services not due to age-related expenditures, compensation of employees (excluding the staff in education and health care sectors). The Commission took into account the decline in the non-age related expenditures in the case of the UK only. The dynamics reflects the current set of legislation in place, according to which most non-pension social
benefits will rise in line with prices after 2009-10, thus reducing their share of GDP.
15 In the 2004 assessment round of the Stability and Convergence Programmes made by the Commission and the Council,
real GDP growth rates used in the sustainability analysis was taken from the programmes for almost all countries.
16 In the assessments made during 2001-2004, the assumed nominal interest rate was assumed to be around 5.5% (1.75%
real growth rate in the EU15 plus 2% inflation in line with the ECBs target plus an interest-growth rate differential of 2%). In the current exercise, a real interest rate of 3% is assumed for all 25 Member States plus 2% inflation, i.e. a 5%
nominal interest rate.
98
accentuated profiles. As a consequence, the projected evolution of debt levels is not a forecast of likely or even possible outcomes and should not be taken at face value. Instead, the indicators are a tool to facilitate policy debate and at best provide an indication of the timing and scale of emerging budgetary challenges that could occur on the basis of ‘no policy change’. In practice, it is likely that governments would respond to either explosive debt trajectories or the implosion of debt leading to the accumulation of large net assets.
11.1.4. Quantitative indicators
Based on the long-term budgetary projections and the assumptions given in section 8.1.3, sustainability gap indicators provide an indication of budgetary adjustment required for a Member State to reach a sustainable public finance position over the long term as measured by the different definitions used. On the basis of the work of the Economic Policy Committee (2001 and 2003), two indicators are used to quantify the sustainability of public finances based on the debt projections. The indicators are described in detail in Annex 9.
S1 shows the difference, the sustainability gap, between the constant revenue ratio as a share
of GDP required to reach a debt ratio in 2050 of 60% of GDP and the current revenue ratio 18 .
Formally, the S1 indicator is a sum of three terms.
2050
( 60 ) ∑
∆ PB t
D ( 1 + ) t − t 0 S = rD
1 − 4 2 PB +
r t −
0 t
-
=t +
0 1 r
1 t 0 4 3 t 0 ( 1
1 + r )
2050 − t
4 2 4 0 −
−
1 2050 1 (1)
A 4 3 4 ∑
B 1 t 4 t 4 ( 1 2 + 4 r ) t
− t
-
=+ 0
0 1 4 3
C
where:
D gross government debt (including pension funds assets) at date t relative to GDP t
PB structural primary balance, i.e. cyclically-adjusted primary balance net of one-off t
and temporary measures at date t relative to GDP
∆ PB t change in structural primary balance PB t = PB 0 + ∆ PB t relative to GDP
r difference between nominal interest rate and nominal GDP growth rate 19 .
The first term (A) is a condition concerning the initial budgetary position. The debt/GDP ratio increases by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the nominal growth rate. Should the initial structural primary balance exactly compensate for this increase, the debt/GDP ratio would remain stable and no adjustment would be necessary. However, if the
18 The sustainability gap indicators (S1, S2) do not necessarily suggest that taxes should be increased;
strengthening the fiscal position by permanently reducing the level of non-age related primary spending could be preferable and has the same impact.
19 The GDP growth assumptions set up in the AWG varies over time in line with development of labour supply
while the real interest rate is set at 3% for the entire projection period, implying a non-constant discount rate. Formulas with a non-constant interest-growth differential are given in Annex 1. For presentational purposes, the formulae here (S1 and S2) are given under the assumption that the differential between nominal interest
rate and nominal GDP growth rate is constant.
initial structural primary balance is not sufficient, the debt/GDP ratio would be on an explosive path and the sustainability gap would be positive.
The S1 indicator is set so that (adjusted) government debt will converge towards 60% of GDP at the end of the projections period: this is ensured by the second term (B).
Finally, because of the impact of ageing on primary expenditure, the structural primary balance with unchanged polices, is generally bound to decrease. The third term (C) calculates the discounted average of future (up to 2050) changes in the structural primary balance compared with the base year.
However, S1 only takes into account changes in the structural primary balance up to 2050, which in most cases underestimates the cost of ageing. This is because the impact of ageing is generally larger in 2050 (and therefore, until infinity, given the impact of ageing is assumed to remain constant afterwards) than the average impact of ageing between today and 2050. The government’s inter-temporal budget constraint may then not be respected.
S2 shows the difference, the sustainability gap, between the constant revenue ratio as a share of GDP that guarantees the respect of the inter-temporal budget constraint of the government, i.e. that equates the actualized flow of revenues and expenses over an infinite horizon, and the current revenue ratio. In this case, the budgetary adjustment is such that no other reform would be needed to ensure long-term sustainability. Formally, the S2 indicator is a sum of two
terms 20 .
∞
S t 2 = rD 1 − 4 2 t PB 4 3 t −
∆
0 0 r ∑
PB
1 4 4 ( 2 1 + 4 r )
t − t (2)
t = t +
0
D 0
1 4 3
E
The first term (D) is the same as (A) in S1: it ensures that the debt/GDP ratio remains constant, whatever its initial level: there is therefore no constraint on the level of debt. The second term (E) is very similar to the term (C) for S1 except that it takes into account changes in the structural primary balance compared with the base year over an infinite horizon rather than up to 2050.
It is the main indicator ensuring sustainability over infinity. To calculate this indicator, assumptions on developments after the end of the projection period are needed. Specifically, the structural primary balance as a share of GDP, the interest rate and the growth rate are assumed to remain constant after 2050, implying that no further budgetary impact of ageing is assumed after that date.
The S2 indicator can be expressed in terms of a required primary balance (RPB) in order to give a clear indication of the medium-term budgetary policy implications of achieving sustainable public finances over an infinite horizon. The RPB measures the average level of the structural primary balance over the first five years of the projection after the programme period that would satisfy the government’s inter-temporal budget constraint. The level of the structural primary balance would decline in the future, in line with projected increases in expenditure, but the RPB would be a sufficient starting position to cover the entire cost of ageing over an infinite horizon. Thus, the RPB can be used to compare the actual or planned
100
budgetary strategy with the structural primary balance required for fulfilling the inter-temporal budget constraint. Formally, the RPB is expressed as follows (in the case when 2009 is the first year of the projection after the programme period).
RPB = PB 2009
+ PB 2010 + ... + PB 2013 +
5 S 2 (3)
For these indicators, two scenarios are calculated: (i) the stability/convergence programme scenario which assumes that the medium-term budgetary plans as set out in the stability and convergence programmes are achieved. This means that the starting point for the projections is the last year of the programme period; (ii) the 2005 scenario which assumes that no changes in the structural primary balance takes place after the current year. Also in this case, the starting point for the projections is the last year of the programme period but the structural primary balance is kept unchanged at its level in 2005 until the last year of the programme period. The purpose of having also the 2005 scenario is to demonstrate the long-term impact on debt developments of departing from the programme scenario as set down in Member States’ stability and convergence programmes.
A further improvement in the next sustainability assessment, endorsed by the EPC, is to perform a sensitivity test that highlights the cost of delay in achieving budgetary consolidation. For countries with a positive S2, it implies that the size of the required adjustment will increase in the future. A detailed description is given in Annex 2.
A limitation of the indicators is that they provide limited guidance on what is the appropriate budget target which Member States should aim at in light of the expected costs of ageing populations. In particular, a positive “sustainability gap” does not necessarily imply that taxes should be increased. Instead an appropriate combination is needed of changes on the revenue side, reforms to reduce the level of non-age related primary spending and reforms of pension and health care systems to curtail the impact of ageing on expenditure growth needs. This requires a case-by-case assessment examining the underlying causes of potential budgetary imbalances.
Qualitative considerations are therefore central in order to interpret the information provided by the sustainability indicators.
Taking on board qualitative information
In addition to the quantitative information used in the analysis described above, incorporating qualitative features when making an overall assessment is a key aspect in the interpretation of the results obtained. These factors allow identifying and qualifying the nature and size of risks countries are facing.
The main qualitative features shaped into the assessment are dealing with: the budgetary position and the level of the debt ratio, the impact of structural reforms, the reliability of the projections and the current level of the tax burden. These qualitative features considered in the assessment are described further in Table 11-1 below, which draws on the agreement with the
EPC 21 .
21 See the EPC report “The impact of ageing populations on public finances: overview of analysis carried out at EU level
and proposals for a future work programme”, EPC/ECFIN/435/03 final, 22.10.03.
Table 11-1 Qualitative factors taken on board in reaching policy recommendations on the sustainability of public finances
Area Issue Concern Explanation
about
sustainability
Public debt High level of Increases Vulnerability to negative interest rate or economic outstanding public growth rate shocks. debt well above 60%
of GDP reference A higher than average primary surplus required for
value several decades which in practice may be hard to achieve given competing budgetary pressures; in
absence of a sufficiently high primary surplus, debt could be on an unsustainable path even without considering the projected future budgetary pressures
stemming from ageing populations.
Low debt levels Decreases Reverse of the arguments above.
Debt increasing Increases Large positive stock-flow adjustments linked to debtfinancial operations increasing financial operations. and large or
increasing contingent Particularly relevant in MS where debt reduction is
liabilities central to meet the budgetary costs of ageing.
Budget balance Contributions to Decreases Contributions to funded pension schemes recorded funded pension outside general government may imply lower social schemes security contributions recorded in general government,
and thus result in higher recorded public deficit levels.
Sensitivity of Increases High sensitivity of results to demographic factors, projections to key indexation rules and numbers of cross-border workers. parameters An appreciation of risk factors complements the analysis
of projected changes in public expenditures.
Robustness of Underlying Increases Earlier cut-off dates than 2050 may underestimate age-related assumptions and budgetary impact as effects of baby-boom generation on expenditure coverage of budgetary population size and age- structure may not have peaked.
projections projections Incomplete coverage of or within expenditure items
underestimates risks to sustainability.
Projections are in some cases based on assumptions of large increase in labour force participation rates. This
may require additional policy measures to be taken.
Methodological Reduces If non-demographic drivers of expenditure are assumed differences comparability in the projections for a particular country (e.g. a trend rise in health-care expenditure) but not in others, risks to sustainability would be overestimated vis-à-vis other countries, making it difficult to compare sustainability
risks across countries.
Tax ratio High tax ratio Increases The viability and desirability of high tax ratios (e.g. above 50% of GDP) over long term may be affected by increased factor mobility affecting tax bases. Also, some governments have the stated objective of lowering the tax burden. The challenge is to do so while preserving sustainable public finance positions and adequate provision of public services.
In the case long-term projections of revenue items made at national level are available, such projections need to be explained so that its impact can be identified and assessed; a rising tax burden may have an adverse
impact on economic growth.
Low tax ratio Decreases Low tax ratio provides greater margin to raise taxes (if
necessary) to meet increased age-related expenditures.
The impact of Pension / health-care Decreases Efficient and effective pension and health care systems structural system reforms contribute to reduction of the budgetary risks. reforms
Risk of implicit Increases In some MS, the performance of overall pension system contingent liabilities will be increasingly reliant on private occupational related to performance schemes and individual pension savings. Pressure for of private higher public spending could emerge (implicit occupational schemes contingent liability) if such schemes have insufficient coverage or fail to generate returns that secure an
adequate level of retirement income.
Limited In some countries success of reforms partially depends
on an effective regulatory and taxation framework for private occupational and individual pension schemes, and thus allows citizens to supplement their retirement
income.
An overall assessment of risks to public finance sustainability
On the basis of the considerations above, the results of the quantitative indicators as well as the qualitative considerations, an overall assessment of public finance sustainability is reached. All Member States will face the budgetary challenge that ageing population represents over the coming decades. The aim of the sustainability assessment is to arrive at a view on how important the risks to public finance sustainability are in a country and where they mainly stem from.
An overall assessment of risks to public finance sustainability should be characterized by whether the country concerned appears to face low, medium or high risks. This approach has several advantages, as it: (i) recognises that ageing population represents a budgetary challenge for all countries to varying degrees; and, (ii) provides a clear distinction between the different degrees of risks to public finance sustainability countries are facing and where do they come from. Since this analysis is an integral part of fiscal surveillance conducted by the Commission and the Council, it is important to identify where major risks are related to current, or medium-term, budgetary developments.
11.2. Increased focus on the sustainability of public finances: improvements and
future work
11.2.1. Agreed improvements to the analysis framework and notably the indicators for the 2005 updates of stability and convergence programmes
and beyond
There is consensus agreement that efforts to assess the sustainability of public finances as part of the evaluation of stability and convergence programmes have proved useful, and they have helped shape the policy debate at both EU and national level. The 2005 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact confirms the importance that policy makers assign to ensuring sustainability of public finances in the EU. This section outlines the changes to be made to the analysis framework and the existing indicators that were agreed by the EPC following a debate in the AWG.
First, move towards a more comprehensive assessment of sustainability. The EPC considers that, in the context of fiscal surveillance, a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of public finances with a multi-annual cycle (three or five years), and an annual update of the assessment of sustainability in the context of the Stability and Convergence Programmes should be made. This approach has several important merits: (i) risks to fiscal sustainability in a country are a long-term issue; (ii) a more comprehensive assessment is required in order to better identify the main risks to sustainability, including sensitivity tests, and; (iii) basing the sustainability analysis on the common EPC projections would ensure greater comparability across countries. The timing and length of the cycle should be synchronized with the updates of demographic projections by Eurostat and the budgetary projection exercise (due every three to five years).The annual update of the assessment would allow taking into account major reforms with direct budgetary impact, e.g. of the pension system, compared with the latest common projections, as well as important budgetary and economic developments in the shortto medium-term.
Second, continue to use the set of two indicators (S1 and S2) in the assessments (the indicators are explained in detail in Annex 1); and the additional information derived from the S2, the ‘Required Primary Balance’ (RPB). The EPC also considers that the cost of delay in achieving budgetary consolidation should be further highlighted in the analysis. This can be achieved through the introduction of a sensitivity test (described in detail in Annex 2). Moreover, the transparency of the analysis should be increased so that the impact of possible national estimates of budgetary items not covered by the common projection exercise (e.g. changes in the revenue/GDP ratio) in different Member States can be easily identified and quantified. The AWG and EPC considers that further work can be envisaged with respect to establishing principles for if and how account could be taken of changes in the budgetary items not covered by the common projections exercise in the calculation of the sustainability indicators. This would contribute to improved comparability of the analysis across countries, which is a key issue in the context of multilateral budgetary surveillance.
Third, the last round of SPC assessment took into account the assets of public pension funds, to better reflect the challenges for sustainability. In this context, to ensure a full consistency between all Member States, the EPC, based on a proposal by the Commission, has prepared a set of guidelines on reporting on public pension fund assets. Those guidelines will be taken into account in the forthcoming round of SCP assessments (the guidelines are given in Annex 11). They could be further developed after another ex-post examination of their application, if considered necessary in the light of the experience gained.
Fourth, for the 2005 assessment round, the commonly agreed underlying assumptions will serve as a reference when considering national projections included in the Stability and Convergence Programmes.
11.2.2. Implications of the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact
In the reformed Stability and Growth Pact, there is increased focus on sustainability. Structural reforms will be taken into consideration in the implementation of both the preventive and the corrective part of the Pact. Specifically, the medium-term objective for the government’s budgetary position may be adjusted, or the adjustment path towards it, in the event a major structural reform is implemented. Only major reforms which have direct longterm cost-saving effects, including by raising potential growth, and therefore a verifiable positive impact on the long-term sustainability of public finances, will be taken into account. Member States should include a detailed cost-benefit analysis in their stability and convergence programmes of the short-term costs – if any – and of the long-term benefits of the reforms from the budgetary point of view. The EPC considers that an assessment of the long-term direct budgetary impact of reforms – especially those affecting expenditure items covered by the common projections exercise - could benefit from a peer review within the AWG.
In addition, implicit liabilities (related to increasing expenditures in the light of ageing populations) should be taken into account in the definition of the medium-term objective for the government’s budgetary position, as soon as criteria and modalities for doing so are appropriately established and agreed by the Council. By the end of 2006, the Commission should report on progress achieved towards the methodology for completing the analysis by
incorporating such implicit liabilities 22 . The EPC has expressed an interest in collaborating
with the Commission on this issue.
22 In accordance with the ECOFIN Council report of 20 March 2005 "Improving the implementation of the Stability and
Growth Pact".
-
12.D EFINITIONS AND PROPERTIES OF DEBT PROJECTIONS AND THE SUSTAINABILITY
INDICATORS
Case 1: the difference between the nominal interest rate and nominal GDP growth is
constant 23
-
1.The inter-temporal budget constraint and the S2 indicator
There is no agreed definition on what constitutes a sustainable position for the public finances. One can however impose that the debt (relative to GDP) remains bounded at any time in the future. This implies (see proof in appendix) that the actualised value of future structural primary balances should cover the current level of debt, i.e.:
∞
D − ∑ PB t t + = 0 r t − t 0 (1)
t = t 0 + 1 ( 1 )
0
This condition is referred to as the inter-temporal budget constraint.
The S2 indicator is closely linked to this constraint. Indeed, given an initial debt, an interestgrowth differential assumption and a future path of the structural primary balance, condition (1) has no reason to be checked. The S2 indicator is thus the change in the structural primary balance for every future year that ensures that condition (1) is true.
∞
S 2 = rD − 0 PB 0 − r ∑ ∆ PB t 1 4 2 t 4 3 t t t
1 4 t = 4 t + 2 1 ( 1 + 4 r )
− 0 (2). (See proof in appendix)
D 0 4 3
E
The first term (D) is a condition concerning the initial budgetary position: if the structural primary balance (relative to GDP) remains unchanged in the future, the sustainability condition simply says that the structural primary balance should be equal to apparent real interest paid on the current level of debt. In that case, the level of debt would remain stable. Indeed, debt relative to GDP increases by the difference between nominal interest rate and the nominal growth rate. If the structural primary balance compensates for this increase, the debt relative to GDP will remain stable.
The second term (E) is a condition concerning future developments in the structural primary balance: the bigger the decrease of the structural primary balance, the higher the immediate rise in the structural primary balance should be to fully compensate those changes. (E) is simply a average of discounted changes in the structural primary balance.
106
-
2.The S1 indicator
S1 indicates the additional constant tax ratio required to reach a debt ratio in 2050 of 60% of
GDP. The calculations are made for any date T in the future and for any level of debt D . T
T PB
i
( D ) ∑
∆
( 1 ) i − t 0 S = rD − PB + r t − D T i = t + 0 0 1 r
1 1 4 2 t 0 4 3 t 0 ( 1 + r ) T − t 0 − −
+
1 T (3)
A 1 4 2 4 4 3 4 ∑
1
B 1 4 t 4 ( 1 2 + 4 r ) i
− t
i = +
0
0 1 4 3
C
As for S2, the S1 indicator is a sum of several terms:
The first term (A) is the same as in S2. If the initial conditions are satisfied and no change in the structural primary balance is forecasted, debt will remain constant. Contrary to S2, S1 also assumes that debt reaches a certain level of debt. This is ensured by the second term (B): it tends to be large if:
the desired level of debt is small; the period of time given to reach this debt level is small; the initial debt is large.
The last term (C) is a condition concerning future developments of the structural primary balance. It is slightly different compared with the S2 indicator because S1 only takes into account changes in the structural primary balance up to 2050, which in most cases, underestimates the cost of ageing.
-
3.Comparison of S1 and S2
∞
Given that A = rD t − PB t = D B T
∞
→
→ ∞ → → T
0 0 ; 0 ; C r ∑
∆ PB t
r t − t E t = t 0 + 1 ( 1 +
=
) 0
S 1 ( T , D )
∞
T →
T → S 2 (4)
If the debt requirement is set at a very distant date in the future, the two indicators S1 and S2 will be very close but, but in practice, given the non so distant requirement (2050), S1 and S2 can be somewhat different.
Table A1.1 sums up the definition of S1 and S2: it proposes a decomposition of the two indicators that can be useful in the analysis to fully separate the impact of the current budgetary position, the debt requirement and the long-term development of primary expenditure.
Table A1.1: comparison of S1 and S2
Current budgetary Debt requirement in Long-term changes in
position 2050 the primary balance
T PB
i
( 1 ) i t 0
S1= A= rD − r ( D )
∑ ∆
t − − i t +
−
0 D T 0 1 r
t PB 0 t 0 + B= ( 1 + r ) T − 1 + C=
= +
T
∑ 1 ( + i − t
i = t + 1 1 r )
0 0
∞
− ∆ S2= D= rD − t PB
0 t 0 + 0 + E= r ∑
PB t
-
=+ + r
t − t
t t 0 1 ( 1 )
0
(E) can be written as a weighted average of (C) and the change in the structural primary balance in 2050. So (E) is greater than (C) when the change in the structural primary balance in 2050 is greater than what it is on average between 2010 and 2050. Given that usually, the impact of ageing on expenditure reaches its maximum towards the end of the period, (E) is usually greater than (C).
Proof:
∞ ∞
∞ ∑
∆ PB T t
− ∑
∆ PB t
0 ( 1 ) −
+ ∑ ∆ PB t
0 ( 1 ) − 0
E = − r ∑
∆ PB = − =
0 + 1 ( 1
+ r ) t t t t t t
t t t = − t = t 0 + 1
+ r t = T + 1 + r
+ r t − t ∞ ∞ 0 t = t + ∑ 1
0 1 ( 1 )
1
+ r t − t ∑ 0 ( 1 + r ) t − t 0 t = t +
0 1 ( 1 ) t
-
=t + 0 1
T 1 ∞
C ∑ 1
( 1 ) −
− ∆
i t PB ∑ −
-
=+ 0
T
E = + r = + ( 1 + r ) t t 0 i t
0 1 t T 1
∞ = α 1 C + ( 1 − α )( − ∆ PB
∑ T
)
( 1 + r ) t − t = + 0 t t 0 1
Case 2: the difference between the nominal interest rate and nominal GDP growth is not constant
The interest-growth rate differential is often assumed to be constant. This is not the case for example in the EU’s analysis of public finance sustainability, given that the real interest rate is constant for all EU25 countries while GDP growth projections are country-specific. Therefore, formulas with non-constant interest-growth rate differential are needed.
Lets introduce α i ; j = ( 1 + r i )( 1 + r i + 1 )...( 1 + r j ) if i ≤ j and 1 otherwise.
t
The dynamics of debt is: D t = D t α t + 1 ; t − ∑ PB i α 0 0 i + 1 ; t ;
i = t 0 + 1
∞
The inter-temporal budgetary condition is: D = PB i t 0 ∑
i = t α 0 + 1 t 0 + 1 , i
∞
∑ ∆ PB i
The S2 indicator is: = t
-
=α S D
0 PB i t 0
+ 1 t
0 + 1 , i
2 ∞ − − ∑ 1 t 0 ∞ ∑ 1 (2bis)
i = t + 1 α 0 t 0 + 1 , i i = t α 0 + 1 t 0 + 1 , i
In the case where the interest rate/growth rate differential and the structural primary balance are constant after a certain date (here 2050):
2050
∑ ∆ PB i + ∆ PB ∞
-
=t − α α 0 PB − i = t + S D 0 1 t 0 + 1 , i r ∞ t 0 + 1 , 2050 2 2050
∑ 1 1 t 0 2050 + 1 + 1 (2ter)
=
1
i t + 4 1 α 4 t + 4 1 , 4 i r 4 4 α
∑
2
2050 4 t + 4 1 , 4 4 2050 4 4 3 1 i = 4 t + 4 α 4 t + 4 2 i 4 r ∞ α 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 , 4 4 t 0 + 4 1 , 3 2050
C D
T
S1 is such that D T = D t α 0 t 0 + 1 ; T − ∑ ( PB i + Σ 1 α ) i + 1 ; T
i = t 0 + 1
T
D α ∑
∆ α i i + 1 ; T
S = t 0 t 0 + 1 ; T
− D PB T − − i = t
0 + 1
1 T PB ∑ t 0 T (3bis)
α i + 1 ; T ∑ α i + 1 ; T
i = t + 0 1 i = t + 0 1
Appendix: proofs
Equation 1
Let’s suppose the debt (relative to GDP) remains bounded at any time in the future.
t
It means that ∃ M such as D = D ( 1 + r ) t − t 0 t t − ∑ PB i ( 1 + r ) t − i < M 0
i = t + 0 1
t
So D t + ∑ PB ( 1 + ) − =
∞
i t t →
i r
D M
r t t r t t 0 0 ( 1 + ) −
< because r is strictly positive.
0
i = t ( 1 + )
− →
+ 0 0 1
∞
D − ∑ PB ( 1 + r ) − ( i − t 0 ) t i = 0 0 (1)
i = t + 0 1
Equation 2
The S2 indicator is the change in the structural primary balance compared with the base year for every future year that ensures that condition (1) is verified.
∞
Mathematically, it can be written: D = ∑ PB t + S 2 t 0
0 + 1 1
+ r ) t − t 0 (1). t = t (
∞
Since the discount rate is strictly positive, ∑ 1 1 .
t t 1 ( 1 + r )
t − t =
-
=+ 0 0 r
∞ ∞
D = Σ 2 + ∑ PB t S 2 PB t 0 PB t t 0 r ( 1 + r ) t − t = + + 0 r r ∑ ∆ t − t
t = t + 1 t = t + 1 ( 1 + r )
0 0 0
∞
S rD − PB − r ∑
∆ PB t
2 = t 0 t 0 r t t (2).
t = t + 1 ( 1 + )
− 0
0
Equation 3
The calculations are made for any date T in the future and for any level of debt in the future. The dynamics of the debt can be written:
− t D ( 1 ) t t
0 ∑
t
-
=+ − + t − i t D t −
0 r PB t 0 ( 1 r ) ∑
∆ PB ( 1 + r ) t − i i
i = t 0 + 1 i = t 0 + 1
S is such that 1 D = t D T
T
( 1 ) ∑ ( 1 )
T − i
T − t 0 PB i r
S = D t
+ r − ∆ + D
0 T − − i = t 0 + 1
1 T PB ∑ t
( 1 ) −
0 T
+ r T i ∑ ( 1 + r ) T − i
i = t 0 + 1 i = t 0 + 1
T
∑ T − 1 T
− t
Given r T − i ∑
0
( 1 + ) = ( 1 + r ) i = ( 1
+ r ) − 1
i = t + i = 0 1 t 0 r
T
∑ T − i ( 1 ) T − t + 0 PB i ( 1 r )
S = rD t
+ −
0 r rD t
+
0 rD t
− ∆
0 rD T PB i = t 0 + 1
1 ( 1 + r ) T − t 0 − − 1 t − 0 T ∑
( 1 + r ) T − i
i = t + 0 1
T
∑ ∆ + T − i ( ) PB i ( 1 r )
S = rD − + t
− T i = t +
t 0 PB
r D 0 D 0 1
1 t 0 ( 1 + r ) T − t 0 − − 1 T ∑
( 1 + r ) T − i
i = t + 0 1
T
∑ ∆ PB i ( ) i t
0
S = rD − PB + r D t
− D
0 T i
-
=t + +
−
0 1 ( 1 r )
1 t 0 t 0 ( 1 + r ) T − t 0 − − 1 T ∑ 1 (3)
+ ( 1 + r )
i − t 0
i = t 0 1
-
13.A SENSITIVITY TEST FOR ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES :
THE COST OF DELAY IN ACHIEVING BUDGETARY CONSOLIDATION
The AWG and EPC agreed with the introduction of a new sensitivity test showing the cost of delay in achieving budgetary consolidation. This test was proposed by Harry ter Rele, Dutch delegate in the AWG. It provides an estimate of the cost of delay in making a complete adjustment according to the old S1 and the S2 indicators. It further assumed a constant interest rate-growth rate differential. This Annex calculates the cost of a delay with non-constant interest rate for the currently used indicators, S1 and S2.
S2 indicator:
∞
If the adjustment is made today, D = ∑ PB t
+ S 2
t 0
t = t α 0 + 1 t 0 + 1 ; t
∞ '
If the adjustment is postponed in 5 years then, D = ∑ PB
∞
t + ∑ S 2
t 0
t = t + α t + t t = t + 1 + delay α 0 1 0 1 ; 0 t 0 + 1 ; t
Relationships between the two indicators:
∞
∑ 1 50 ∑ 1 + 1
S ' = t
-
=t +
S 1
α
0 t + 1 ; t = = + S t t 1
α
0 0 t 0 + 1 ; t r ∞
α 1 , 50
2 2 ∞ ∑ 1 2 50 ∑ 1
+ 1
t = t 0 + 1 + delay α t + 1 ; t t = t + 1 + delay α 0 0 t 0 + 1 ; t r ∞ α 1 , 50
The cost of the delay is proportional to the initial tax gap indicator. If r is constant 24 , the
former formula is significantly reduced: S ' 2 = S 2 ( 1 + r ) delay
S1 indicator:
The expression for the cost of delay using the S1 indicator is:
2050
∑ 1 delay ∑ 1
' = t = t 0 + 1 α + 1 ; = + t = t 1 α S S t t
1 S ( 1
0 + 0 t 0 + 1 ; t
1 1 2050 ∑ 1 50 ∑ 1 )
t = t 0 + 1 + delay α t + 1 ; t t = t 0 + 1 + 0 delay α t 0 + 1 ; t
111
-
14.G UIDELINES FOR TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ASSETS OF PUBLIC PENSION FUNDS IN
THE ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES 25
The main quantitative tool used in the EU surveillance of the sustainability of public finances is extrapolation of debt, with budgetary developments incorporating long-term projections of government expenditure that evolve in line with demographic projections, thus indicating the budgetary impact of ageing populations. For this purpose, government debt is defined as general government gross debt (the Maastricht definition). Since reducing debt or accumulating assets in public pension funds has a similar effect on fiscal sustainability, which however is not reflected in the gross debt measure, the EPC in September 2004 considered it appropriate to take into account the position of fund assets in the analysis of long-term sustainability of public finances. It was agreed that the dynamics of consolidated gross debt should continue to be calculated, and that in addition it should, be adjusted for such pension fund assets. However, clarifications are needed to specify exactly which kind of assets would be used in making adjustments, and how to value them in a consistent way
within the EU Member States. 26
In the 2004 assessment of Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCP), the Commission took into account public pension fund assets for six countries (Denmark, Spain, Estonia,
Ireland, Cyprus, Finland and Sweden) 27 . The proposed guidelines aim at clarifying the
proposed adjustment, and providing reporting requirements for Member States for the preparation of the future assessments of SCP’s, considering that also other Member States have such funds.
The EPC considers that public pension fund assets should be taken into account for the purposes of complementing the assessment of the long-term sustainability of the public finances in case they are:
− Consolidated liquid assets and their current value can be determined; and
− Accumulated for the strict purpose of covering pension-related expenditure, in accordance with the principle of “good governance” 28 .
Reporting by Member States should include most recent estimates of:
− the consolidated liquid public pension fund asset recorded in general government that
are established to cover pension-related expenditure, in most cases recorded in the social security funds sub-sector of general government (an example from the Finnish
2004 stability programme is given in the Annex); and
− the size of property income due to such consolidated liquid public pension fund assets.
25 These guidelines were adopted by the EPC, ECFIN/EPC(2005)REP/53512 final, 11.10.2005. See also the
Commission report ‘Public finances in EMU – 2005’.
26 This proposal has been prepared on the basis of a note by the Commission “Guidelines for taking into account
assets of public pension funds in the assessment of the sustainability of public finances” (doc. ECFIN/REP/53950/05) which has been discussed and agreed by the AWG on 19-20 September. For the mandate, see letter by the EPC President to the Chairman of the EFC Alternates of 22 September 2004 (doc. ECFIN/EPC(2004)REP/50308 final).
27 In these cases, the funds concerned sizable and assigned assets for financing future public pension expenditure,
and therefore had relevance for the assessment of the sustainability of public finances.
112
Detail
11.1. Identifying liquid public pension fund assets
The EPC considers that three issues need to be addressed in this regard; i) which assets should be considered and how to value them ii) the use of funds to be considered; and iii) how to distinguish between national government bonds and other bonds.
-
i)Financial assets to be considered
On financial assets to be considered, all assets held by governments ease the budgetary pressures on the public finances arising from ageing populations in the longer term. However, for some financial assets, such as shares in non-floated publicly owned enterprises, current market value cannot be easily determined. This introduces a considerable element of uncertainty. In order to circumvent this obstacle, only liquid assets for which a current value can be determined should be considered. Such assets are currencies, deposits and tradable securities, for which a current market value can be determined. Information on financial assets is available from the financial accounts. The relevant liquid asset categories are given in Table 11.1. Member States should submit data on public pension fund assets according to this delimitation, specified further in the second
point below, and reported according to their current market value 29 .
Table 11.1 – Liquid financial assets*, financial accounts**
Code Description
AF.21 Currency
AF.22 Transferable deposits
AF.29 Other deposits
AF.331 Securities other than shares; Short-term (bills)
AF.332 Securities other than shares; Long-term (bonds)
AF.34 Securities other than shares; Financial derivatives
AF.511 Shares and other equity; Quoted shares
AF.52 Shares and other equity; Mutual fund shares
-
*Assets of public pension funds with a strict purpose of covering pension-related expenditure should be included, see the second point below in the text.
** Information from the financial accounts should be consolidated, see the third point below in the text.
Source: ESA95
29 According to the “Manual on Sources and Methods for the compilation of ESA95 Financial Accounts”, first
edition, Eurostat, 2002, p. 26, ESA95 states as a general rule for all assets (7.25) that all assets and liabilities are to be valued using current market prices on the date to which the balance sheet relates. This rule applies to financial assets (7.44): “Financial assets and liabilities should in principle be valued at current prices. They should be assigned the same value whether they appear as financial assets and liabilities.” This manual
provides additional information on the valuation of financial instruments and is available at:
http://europa.eu.int/estatref/info/sdds/en/fina/fina_esa95_manual_sources_methods.pdf .
-
ii)Use of funds to be considered
Public pension fund assets that are established or legislated with a strict purpose of covering pension-related expenditure should be included, and fund assets accumulated for other purposes should not be included. They should be accumulated in
accordance with the principle of “good governance” 30 . In most cases, such funds are
recorded in the social security funds sub-sector (S.1314) of general government (S.13), see Figure 11.1. However, in some cases they are recorded in the central government sector (S.1311) rather than in the social security funds (S.1314). As the financial assets in the social security funds (S.1314) or elsewhere in general government (S.13) may comprise more than public pension fund assets that have a strict purpose of covering pension-related expenditure, Member States need to make this distinction. In order for the Commission to adjust Maastricht gross debt by taking into account public pension funds with a strict purpose of covering pension-related expenditure in the social security funds (S.1314) or elsewhere in the general government sector (S.13), Member States should provide this data according to the delimitation given in Table 11.1 above.
Figure 11.1 – General government and its sub-sectors in ESA95
General Government
(S.13)
Central Government State Government Local Government Social Security Funds
(S.1311) (S.1312) (S.1313) (S.1314)
Moreover, revenues (property income) from consolidated liquid public pension fund assets should be deducted from gross interest expenditure so that an adjusted primary balance can be calculated. Member States are asked to provide the size of property income that is due to holdings of such public pension fund assets.
Eurostat’s decision of 2 March 2004 on the classification of pension schemes implies that funded defined contribution pension schemes should be classified outside government, the argument being that pensions to be paid depend on financial market developments (and on households’ investment choices) and not on government decisions. According to Eurostat’s press release of deficit and debt data for 2003 of 23 September 2004, Member States are required to implement this by March 2007 at the latest. Some countries have opted for this implementation period and include the flows of contributions and corresponding future pension payments of such schemes in general government whereas others exclude them at present.
30 The issues of good governance will be further explored for the 2006 SCP assessments.
Public pension fund assets may be accumulated in defined benefit (DB) pay-as-you-go
schemes, in funded defined contribution (DC) schemes or in buffer funds 31 . For consistency
and for the purposes of assessing sustainability of public finances, data on liquid public pension fund assets, in DB or DC schemes, should be provided to the extent that the corresponding public pension expenditures are included in the long-term budgetary projections. In a funded defined contribution pension scheme, contributions should match liabilities by construction. In a defined benefit pay-as-you-go scheme, contributions may be accumulated in a fund in order e.g. to smoothen the ‘required’ contributions over time in order to reduce the intergenerational impact.
-
iii)National government bonds and other bonds
It should be borne in mind that if the non-consolidated financial balance sheets are used, national government bonds need to be netted out. By contrast, if the consolidated financial balance sheets are used, national government bonds have already been netted out. In the Maastricht definition of consolidated gross debt, national government bonds are already netted out. Hence:
− for those countries where consolidated balance sheets are available, the relevant
financial assets are given net of national government bonds. No adjustments are
needed; and
− for those countries where non-consolidated financial balance sheets are available, the
relevant financial assets need to be reported net of national government bonds in order
to avoid double-counting.
11.2. Adjusted gross debt net of liquid public pension fund assets
Adjusted gross debt equals Maastricht gross debt net of the consolidated liquid public pension fund assets, according to the delimitations described in section 11.1 above.
The projection of debt developments over the long run on the basis of Maastricht gross debt should be continued. In addition, sustainability indicators (S1, S2, RPB) are calculated on the basis of adjusted gross debt, thus taking into account public pension fund assets, where applicable. In the projections on such funds, the rate of return to be used will correspond to the interest paid on government bonds. Moreover, no further build-up or drawdown of pension fund assets is assumed.
Some countries have chosen to accumulate liquid assets in public pension funds, and for these this adjustment had a considerable impact (see graph below). This is particularly true for Finland, Sweden and Denmark, where the accumulation of funds has taken place for many years. Other countries have started accumulating funds recently. Maastricht gross debt in 2004 in EU-25 was 63.9% of GDP, dropping to 62.2% when looking at adjusted gross debt. The small difference between the debt definitions at the EU aggregate level reflects the fact that accumulation of liquid assets in public pension funds predominantly has taken place in a number of smaller Member States so far.
31 Such as in France (the so-called Fonds de Réserve des Retraites), in Ireland or in Sweden. These funds should
be accumulated strictly for the purpose of covering pension-related expenditure and comply with all the criteria set down in these guidelines.
Graph 11.1. Maastricht gross debt and adjusted gross debt in 2004
Maastricht and Adjusted Gross Debt in 2004
% of GDP (% of GDP)
80
70
60 Maastricht gross debt
Adjusted gross debt 50 EU25 gross debt
EU25 Adj. Gross debt
40
30
20
10
0 CY ES SE DK IE FI
Source: European Commission (2005), Public Finances in EMU – 2005, European Economy.
____________________
ANNEX: Extract from the Finnish 2004 stability programme
The Finnish 2004 SP (pp. 31-32) contains information on holdings of liquid assets by public pension funds in: (i) the social security funds (Table 7) and; (ii) the central government (Table 8). These assets within the general government sector were reported according to the agreed delimitation, i.e. consolidated liquid assets for which a current market value can be determined.
ANNEX - LIST OF AWG MEMBERS AND CONTRIBUTORS
CHAIRMAN
Mr. Henri BOGAERT, Commissaire au Plan, Bureau du Plan
BELGIQUE - BELGIE
Mr. Michel ENGLERT Bureau fédéral du Plan - Federaal Planbureau
Mme Micheline LAMBRECHT Bureau fédéral du Plan - Federaal Planbureau
CZECH REPUBLIC
Mr. Ales KREJDL Ministry of Finance
DANMARK
Mr. Morten Granzau NIELSEN Ministry of Finance
Mr. Martin MADSEN Ministry of Finance
Mr. Anders Due MADSEN Ministry of Finance
BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND
Ms Britta VELLEUER Bundesministerium der Finanzen
Mr. Konrad HAKER Ministerium für Arbeit und Soziales
ESTONIA
Mr. Tanel STEINBERG Ministry of Finance
ELLAS
Ms. Marianna PAPAMICHAIL National Actuarial Authority
Mr. Dimitris PAPAOIKONOMOU Ministry of Economy and Finance
ESPAÑA
Mr. Juan BURDIEL Ministerio de Economia y Hacienda Mr. Juan VARELA Ministerio de Economia y Hacienda Mr. Francisco DE CASTRO Bank of Spain
Ms Angela BLANCO Instituto de Estudios Fiscales
Mr. Jorge RELANO Ministerio de Sanidad y Consumo Ms Mercedes ALFARO Ministerio de Sanidad y Consumo Ms Maria Jesus SANZ Ministerio de Economia y Hacienda FRANCE
Mr. Alexandre VINCENT Ministère de l'économie, des finances et de l'industrie Mr. Nicolas FERRARI Ministère de l'économie,
des finances et de l'industrie
Mr Jean-François OUVRARD Ministère de l'économie,
des finances et de l'industrie
IRELAND
Ms Loretta O’SULLIVAN Budget and economic Division
Department of Finance
Mr. Ronnie DOWNES Budget and economic Division
Department of Finance
ITALIA
Mr. Federico GIAMMUSSO Ministero del Tesoro
Mr. Rocco APRILE I.G.E.S.P.E.S. Ragioneria Generale dello Stato
Mr. Francesco MASSICCI I.G.E.S.P.E.S. Ragioneria Generale dello Stato
CYPRUS
Ms Nayia POSPORI Ministry of Finances
LATVIA
Mr. Ilmārs ŠĥUCINS Ministry of Finance
LITHUANIA
Ms Ruta BANELIENE Ministry of Finance
LUXEMBOURG
Mr. Jean LANGERS STATEC
Mr. Raymond WAGENER Inspection Générale de la Securité Sociale
Mr. Tom DOMINIQUE Inspection Générale de la Securité Sociale
Ms Laurence WEBER Inspection Générale de la Sécurité Sociale
HUNGARY
Mr. Andras HORVATH Ministry of Finance
MALTA
Ms Charmaine PORTELLI Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs
Mr. Godwin MIFSUD Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs
NEDERLAND
Mr Harry TER RELE Centraal Planbureau
Mr. W. KOOLMEES Ministry of Finance
Mr. Pieter VAN WINDEN Department of Economic Affairs
ÖSTERREICH
Mr. Peter PART Bundesministerium für Finanzen Dr. Karin SCHÖNPFLUG Bundesministerium für Finanzen Mr. Hans STEFANITS Ministry of Social Affairs
POLAND
Ms.Agnieszka CHŁOŃ-DOMIŃCZAK Ministry of Economy, Labour and Social Policy
Mr. Pawek STRZELECKI Ministry of Economy, Labour and Social Policy
Ms Joanna STACHURA Ministry of Economy, Labour and
Social Policy
PORTUGAL
Mr. Jorge OLIVEIRA Ministry of Finance
SLOVENIA
Mr. Dusan KIDRIC, Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Mr. Boris MAJCEN Institute for Economic Research Mr. Joze SAMBT Economic Faculty SLOVAKIA
Mr. Viktor NOVYSEDLAK Ministry of Finance
SUOMI FINLAND
Mr. Jorma TUUKKANEN Ministry of Finance
Mr. Jussi HUOPANIEMI Ministry of Finance
Mrs. Marja TUOVINEN Ministry of Finance
SVERIGE
Ms Anna KLEEN Ministry of Finance
Mr. Tomas NORDSTRÖM Ministry of Finance
Mr. Sten HANSEN National Institute of Economic Research Mr. Martin KNUDSEN National Institute of Economic Research
UNITED KINGDOM
Mr. Frank EICH HM Treasury
Mr. Joshua FLEMING HM Treasury
Mr. Thomas PYBUS HM Treasury
Mr. Robert WOODS HM Treasury
ROMANIA (Observer)
Ms. Ana RADU Ministry of Public Finance
Ms Martha CHIRVASE National Forecasting Commission
BULGARIAN (Observer)
Ms Ana MIHAYLOVA Ministry of Finance
EPC SECRETARIAT
Mr Pekka MOREN (Secretary)
Mr. Heinz SCHERRER
Mrs. Odile RENAUD-BASSO
Mrs. Brigitte DE CONINCK
Mr. Dagmar DIEZLER-HANAGHAN
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Mr. Servaas DEROOSE
Mr. Declan COSTELLO
Ms Elena FLORES GUAL
Mr. Werner RÖGER
Mr. Giuseppe CARONE
Ms Cecile DENIS
Ms Nuria DIEZ GUARDIA
Mr. Per ECKEFELT
Mr. Jouko KUOSMANEN
Mr. Fabrizio MELCARNE
Mr. Kieran MCMORROW
Mr. Gilles MOURRE
Mr. Bartosz PRZYWARA
Ms Aino SALOMÄKI
Ms Ingvild STROMSHEIM WOLD
Ms Dominique CORNESSE
Ms Patricia TUITE
OECD
Mr. Joaquim OLIVEIRA Economics Department Mr. Pablo ANTOLIN Economics Department Mr. Peter SCHERRER Health Division Mr. Gaetan LAFORTUNE Health Division
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Ms Christiane NICKEL European Central Bank Mr. Louis BÊ DUC
EUROSTAT
Mr. Michail SKALIOTIS
Mr. Konstantinos GIANNAKOURIS
Mr. Giampaolo LANZIERI
Mr. Fabio SARTORI
WORLD BANK
Mr. Hermann von GERSDORFF
IMF
Mr Pierre DHONTE
STATISTICAL ANNEX:
COUNTRY TABLES
Belgium Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 75.5 75.8 76.9 77.9 78.9 79.7 80.3 80.9 81.4 81.8 82.1
fe m ale s 81.6 81.9 82.9 83.9 84.8 85.5 86.1 86.6 87.0 87.2 87.5
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 15.8 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3
fe m ale s 19.7 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 23.7 22.3 19.6 19.3 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Population (m illion) 10.4 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 17.3 17.1 16.4 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.7
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 42.7 42.5 41.5 40.1 38.6 37.2 36.3 35.9 35.5 35.4 35.2
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 65.6 65.6 66.1 65.1 63.8 61.9 59.9 58.6 58.0 58.0 57.9
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 17.1 17.2 17.5 18.9 20.5 22.5 24.6 26.2 27.1 27.3 27.3
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.0 7.1 8.1 9.3 10.3 10.8
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.1
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 1.8 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 283 288 326 366 401 431 461 494 533 576 621 GDP pe r w ork e r 21.8 22.2 24.7 27.5 29.8 31.7 33.6 36.0 38.9 42.2 45.9 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 Labour force (thous ands ) 4458 4495 4664 4766 4753 4667 4570 4507 4471 4442 4401 Participation rate (15-64) 65.4 65.7 66.8 68.6 69.1 69.2 69.5 69.8 70.1 70.0 70.0 young (15-24) 35.6 35.9 36.0 37.3 36.7 36.9 36.4 36.3 36.5 36.7 36.8 prim e -age (25-54) 82.8 83.3 85.7 87.4 88.1 88.3 88.6 88.6 88.6 88.6 88.6 olde r (55-64) 29.9 30.5 33.8 39.6 42.8 43.2 43.3 43.7 44.7 44.7 44.9 olde s t (65-71) 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 60.2 60.6 62.1 64.1 64.6 64.7 65.0 65.3 65.5 65.5 65.5 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 54.9 55.4 57.1 57.9 57.7 57.3 56.9 57.1 57.7 58.1 58.0 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.0 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 7.9 7.7 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 7.5 7.8 9.5 11.7 13.5 13.8 13.4 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.4 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 26.1 26.3 26.4 29.1 32.2 36.3 41.1 44.7 46.7 47.0 47.2 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 52.5 52.4 51.2 53.6 56.8 61.5 66.9 70.6 72.3 72.4 72.6 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 153.3 151.4 143.4 139.5 142.7 149.6 156.7 161.3 163.0 163.3 163.7 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 42.9 42.8 42.1 44.7 49.1 55.3 62.4 67.7 70.5 71.1 71.3 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 42.7 42.6 41.9 44.5 48.7 54.9 61.8 67.1 70.0 70.5 70.7
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Belgium EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.3 11.3 12.7 14.0 14.8 15.1 15.0 14.9 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.2 11.3 12.6 13.9 14.7 15.0 15.0 14.8 Private s ector em ployees , gros s 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.9 7.7 8.7 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.3 10.2 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 Social security pensions, net : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.3 13.4 16.4 13.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.3 13.4 16.4 13.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 2501 2516 2635 2870 3144 3456 3748 3952 4052 4078 4050 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 2501 2516 2635 2870 3144 3456 3748 3952 4052 4078 4050 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 1860 1874 1960 2186 2435 2742 3073 3318 3443 3468 3447 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 25.6 25.5 25.6 23.8 22.6 20.7 18.0 16.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 11.8 12.0 12.9 14.1 15.4 16.7 18.0 19.3 20.7 22.2 23.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 11.8 12.0 12.9 14.1 15.4 16.7 18.0 19.3 20.7 22.2 23.8 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 69.9 70.8 72.5 79.2 86.7 94.8 103.4 112.5 122.5 133.3 145.1 Social sec. benefit ratio 16.8 16.9 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.4 Total pension benefit ratio 16.8 16.9 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.2 16.9 16.6 16.4 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 4249 4297 4491 4623 4620 4545 4457 4394 4355 4323 4281 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 170 171 170 161 147 132 119 111 107 106 106
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.5 11.1 12.2 13.6 14.8 15.7 16.1 16.2 16.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.3 11.4 12.8 14.1 15.0 15.4 15.5 15.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.5 11.1 12.2 13.6 14.8 15.7 16.1 16.2 16.1 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.4 13.5 16.2 12.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.1 12.1 13.3 14.5 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.3 11.3 12.6 13.8 14.5 14.8 14.7 14.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.1 12.1 13.3 14.5 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.2 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.3 13.4 16.2 13.5 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.1 12.2 13.5 14.8 15.7 16.0 16.0 15.9 Old-age and early pensions, gross 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.3 11.4 12.8 14.1 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.1 12.2 13.5 14.8 15.7 16.0 16.0 15.9 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.4 13.6 16.5 13.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.0 13.3 14.5 15.3 15.6 15.5 15.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.2 11.2 12.6 13.8 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.0 13.3 14.5 15.3 15.6 15.5 15.4 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.3 13.5 16.5 13.9 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 11.9 13.2 14.4 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 11.9 13.2 14.4 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.3 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.3 13.5 16.5 14.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5
Old-age and early pensions, gross 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.3 11.3 12.7 14.0 14.8 15.1 15.0 14.9
Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.1 12.8 14.9 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.3 11.3 12.7 14.0 14.8 15.1 15.0 14.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 All pensions, assets 4.4 4.7 7.5 14.2 17.9 16.2 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
: = data not provided
Belgium OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.6 6 .8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 Cons tant health s cenario 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6 .4 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.5 6 .6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 7 .0 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.0 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6 .6 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.1 AWG reference s cenario 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.6 6 .8 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1 .1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1 .2 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1 .0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 Increas e in form al care 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1 .3 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 AWG reference s cenario 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1 .1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 416 42 4 4 60 5 02 540 587 664 737 797 834 84 1 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 416 42 4 4 60 5 02 540 306 664 737 797 834 84 1 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 416 41 8 4 25 3 67 438 447 482 515 541 555 54 7 Increas e in form al care 416 42 4 4 60 5 02 540 587 664 737 797 834 84 1 AWG reference s cenario 416 42 1 4 43 4 68 489 517 573 626 669 694 69 4
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 262 26 8 2 99 3 28 350 376 430 484 534 569 57 9 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 262 26 8 2 99 3 28 350 376 430 484 534 569 57 9 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 262 26 5 2 79 2 90 293 296 325 353 379 396 39 5 Increas e in form al care 262 27 6 3 42 4 03 457 494 561 626 681 717 72 6 AWG reference s cenario 262 26 7 2 89 3 09 322 336 377 419 457 482 48 7
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 154 15 6 1 61 1 74 190 212 234 253 264 265 26 3 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 154 15 6 1 61 1 74 190 89 234 253 264 265 26 3 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 154 15 3 1 46 1 16 146 150 157 161 162 158 15 2 Increas e in form al care 154 14 8 1 19 99 83 93 103 111 116 117 11 6 AWG reference s cenario 154 15 4 1 54 1 59 168 181 196 207 213 212 20 7
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.0 4 .9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 of which: Transfers 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Prim ary 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1 .2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0 .7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1 .7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tertiary education 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1 .2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 2373 2360 2312 2253 221 8 220 3 22 00 21 84 2 152 2 114 2087 Prim ary 753 74 4 7 32 7 08 704 710 713 702 686 672 66 7 Low s econdary 424 42 3 3 98 3 93 383 382 383 381 373 366 36 1 Upper s econdary 819 82 1 8 10 7 87 774 762 762 760 751 736 72 4 Tertiary education 376 37 1 3 72 3 65 357 348 342 342 343 340 33 4 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 6819 6841 6980 6947 688 0 674 2 65 75 64 55 6 382 6 344 6286
Unemployment benefit spending as % 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1 .8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8
of GDP
Czech Republic Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De m ogra phic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility r ate 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 72.4 72.6 73.7 74.8 75.9 76.9 77.8 78.3 78.8 79.3 79.7
fe m ale s 78.8 79.0 79.8 80.5 81.3 82.1 82.7 83.1 83.5 83.8 84.1
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 13.8 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4
fe m ale s 17.0 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 4.3 4.3 2.6 -1.0 9.7 20.2 21.6 21.4 21.0 20.5 20.0
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.04 0.04 0.03 -0.01 0.10 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
Population (m illion) 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.9
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 15.2 14.9 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.5 12.9 12.3 12.1 12.3 12.6
Pr im e age population (25-54) as % of total 44.4 44.5 43.8 43.6 43.4 41.8 39.2 36.2 35.0 34.2 33.5
Wor k ing age population (15-64) as % of total 70.8 71.1 70.9 68.0 65.4 64.1 63.5 63.1 61.1 58.0 56.5
Elde r ly population age d 65+ as % of total 13.9 14.0 15.5 18.2 20.8 22.4 23.6 24.6 26.8 29.7 31.0
V e r y e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.9 6.5 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.7
Elde r ly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.9 9.1
Ma croe conom ic a ssum ptions
Re al GDP (gr ow th r ate ) 3.1 3.2 3.6 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.8 Labour input (gr ow th r ate ) 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th r ate ) 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (gr ow th r ate ) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productivity grow th) 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (gr ow th r ate ) 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 GDP in 2004 pr ice s (in billions of e ur o) 86 89 106 125 142 159 177 189 195 200 208 GDP pe r w or k e r 13.0 13.4 16.2 19.2 22.1 25.0 28.1 30.6 32.2 33.9 36.0 Re al inte r e s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssumptions
Population gr ow th (w or k ing age :15-64) 0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -0.9 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -1.5 -1.4 -0.9 Labour for ce (thous ands ) 5094 5108 5170 5123 4981 4850 4691 4483 4194 3935 3744 Par ticipation r ate (15-64) 70.4 70.5 72.0 75.2 76.9 77.2 76.2 74.6 73.6 74.4 74.5 young (15-24) 37.0 36.2 37.1 39.8 35.7 35.9 36.0 36.5 37.4 37.6 36.8 pr im e -age (25-54) 88.2 88.5 89.4 90.5 90.9 91.4 91.3 91.0 90.7 90.5 90.7 olde r (55-64) 44.4 44.4 49.7 54.1 59.1 61.3 62.5 62.3 58.7 60.1 60.1 olde s t (65-71) 7.9 7.7 8.8 10.7 10.0 10.6 11.5 11.0 12.0 11.1 10.6 Em ploym e nt r ate (15-64) 64.9 65.0 66.8 70.3 71.9 72.1 71.2 69.8 68.8 69.6 69.7 Em ploym e nt r ate (15-71) 60.7 60.8 61.6 63.4 64.2 64.8 64.5 62.6 60.7 59.5 60.4 Em ploym e nt gr ow th (15-64) 0.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 Une m ploym e nt r ate (15-64) 7.8 7.8 7.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w or k e r s 11.3 11.7 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.8 18.6 22.3 21.2 20.1 20.0 Old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (1) 19.7 19.8 21.9 26.8 31.8 35.0 37.1 39.0 43.8 51.2 54.8 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 41.2 40.7 41.0 47.0 52.8 56.1 57.4 58.5 63.5 72.3 77.1 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy r atio 117.4 116.6 111.2 109.0 112.6 116.4 121.0 127.2 137.7 147.6 154.0 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-64) 29.4 29.5 31.5 36.1 42.3 46.5 50.0 53.7 60.8 70.2 75.8 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-71) 29.1 29.3 31.2 35.5 41.4 45.7 49.0 52.6 59.1 68.0 73.8
LEGENDA :
S h a re o f o l d e r wo r k e rs = P o p u la t i o n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p ul a t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n de n c y r a t io ( 1) = P o p ul a t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t he p o p u la t i o n a ge d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e nc y ra t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t i o n un d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a pe rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t i o n a ge d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y ra t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p l o ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o no m i c o ld - a g e d e p e nd e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = I n a c t i v e p o pu l a t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p l o ye d p o p u la t i o n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o no m i c o ld - a g e d e p e nd e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t i o n ( 15 - 7 1)
Czech Republic EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.7 9.9 11.4 12.5 13.3 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.7 9.9 11.4 12.5 13.3 Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 Social security pensions, net 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 Total pension expenditure, net 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 Social security pensions, contributions 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 Total pension contributions 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 Social security pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.5 6.8 9.9 11.0 9.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.5 6.8 9.9 11.0 9.4 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 2629 2667 2795 2893 2984 3099 3215 3351 3483 3513 3496 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 2629 2667 2795 2893 2984 3099 3215 3351 3483 3513 3496 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 1405 1423 1556 1804 2011 2113 2199 2249 2422 2590 2627 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 46.6 46.6 44.3 37.7 32.6 31.8 31.6 32.9 30.5 26.3 24.9 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.6 8.4 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.6 8.4 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 17.6 18.2 22.2 26.1 30.5 35.2 40.3 45.1 49.7 54.5 59.4 Social sec. benefit ratio 15.7 15.5 14.1 13.5 13.2 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.1 Total pension benefit ratio 15.7 15.5 14.1 13.5 13.2 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.1 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 4767 4778 4880 4911 4776 4650 4500 4306 4056 3822 3620 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 181 179 175 170 160 150 140 128 116 109 104
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.6 10.8 12.4 13.6 14.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.8 10.0 11.6 12.8 13.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.6 10.8 12.4 13.6 14.4 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.4 6.5 9.1 9.7 7.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.7 9.3 10.4 11.9 13.0 13.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.5 9.6 11.1 12.2 12.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.7 9.3 10.4 11.9 13.0 13.6 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.4 6.7 9.8 11.2 10.1 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.7 12.3 13.4 14.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.8 9.9 11.5 12.6 13.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.7 12.3 13.4 14.2 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.4 6.6 9.2 9.9 7.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.4 12.0 13.1 13.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.6 9.7 11.2 12.3 13.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.4 12.0 13.1 13.8 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.5 7.0 10.3 11.7 10.5 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.4 11.9 13.0 13.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.5 9.6 11.1 12.2 12.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.4 11.9 13.0 13.7 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.5 6.9 10.0 11.4 10.2 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0
Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.7 9.9 11.4 12.5 13.3
Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.4 6.5 9.2 9.8 7.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.7 9.9 11.4 12.5 13.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.9 9.6 10.6 12.2 13.3 14.0 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 3.6 7.2 10.6 12.4 11.4 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
: = data not provided
Czech Republic OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.7 7 .0 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8 .2 8.3 Cons tant health s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.6 6 .7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7 .4 7.5 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.6 6 .8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7 .7 7.8 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.4 6.5 6.8 7 .2 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.6 8 .7 8.9 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.4 6.5 6.6 6 .8 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.4 8.9 9 .5 9.8 AWG reference s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.8 7 .1 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8 .3 8.4
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0 .7 0.8 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.3 0.3 0.4 0 .4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0 .6 0.7 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 .6 0.6 Increas e in form al care 0.3 0.3 0.4 0 .5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1 .1 1.2 AWG reference s cenario 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0 .6 0.7
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 299 304 333 371 4 15 46 8 520 551 572 600 6 25 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 299 304 333 371 4 15 22 0 520 551 572 600 6 25 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 299 299 304 256 3 23 34 4 369 378 375 375 3 77 Increas e in form al care 299 304 333 371 4 15 46 8 520 551 572 600 6 25 AWG reference s cenario 299 302 318 342 3 69 40 6 444 465 474 487 5 01
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 134 136 150 168 1 86 20 9 234 250 260 272 2 81 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 134 136 150 168 1 86 20 9 234 250 260 272 2 81 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 134 134 138 143 1 46 15 4 167 173 172 172 1 71 Increas e in form al care 134 144 199 256 3 14 35 4 394 419 435 456 4 73 AWG reference s cenario 134 135 144 156 1 66 18 2 200 211 216 222 2 26
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 166 168 182 203 2 29 25 9 286 301 312 328 3 44 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 166 168 182 203 2 29 12 0 286 301 312 328 3 44 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 166 165 166 139 1 78 18 9 202 205 203 203 2 05 Increas e in form al care 166 160 134 115 1 01 11 4 126 133 137 144 1 51 AWG reference s cenario 166 167 174 187 2 03 22 4 244 253 257 265 2 75
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 3.8 3.8 3.3 2 .9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3 .1 3.1 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 Prim ary 0.6 0.6 0.5 0 .5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0 .6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.1 1.0 0.8 0 .7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.3 1.2 1.1 0 .9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 .0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Tertiary education 0.9 0.9 0.8 0 .7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0 .7 0.7 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1 875 18 23 159 5 1439 1398 1395 1 375 13 14 123 7 1184 1164 Prim ary 533 501 463 468 4 68 46 5 440 402 381 380 3 85 Low s econdary 505 498 373 359 3 62 36 7 365 344 314 299 3 00 Upper s econdary 551 541 500 380 3 79 38 0 384 380 356 329 3 17 Tertiary education 286 283 260 231 1 88 18 3 185 188 186 176 1 63 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 7 234 72 47 717 7 6812 6479 6287 6 157 60 08 569 9 5286 5023
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2
of GDP
Denmark Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility rate 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Life e xpe ctancy at birth m ale s 75.2 75.4 76.4 77.3 78.1 78.9 79.5 80.1 80.6 81.0 81.4 fe m ale s 79.6 79.7 80.5 81.3 82.1 82.7 83.3 83.8 84.3 84.8 85.2 Life e xpe ctancy at 65 m ale s 15.2 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 fe m ale s 18.0 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.9 Ne t m igration (thous and) 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 Ne t m igration as % of population 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 Population (m illion) 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 Population age d 0-14 as % of total 18.9 18.8 18.0 16.9 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.3 15.9 15.5 Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 42.4 42.1 40.3 39.1 38.2 37.1 36.3 35.9 36.2 36.3 36.0 Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 66.2 66.2 65.7 64.5 63.9 62.7 60.8 59.1 58.4 58.6 59.6 Elde r ly population age d 65+ as % of total 14.9 15.0 16.3 18.6 20.1 21.4 22.9 24.4 25.3 25.5 25.0 V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.6 6.9 7.5 8.0 8.7 9.5
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th rate ) 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 Labour input (gr ow th rate ) 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.1 Labour pr oductivity (grow th rate ) 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (grow th rate ) 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productiv ity grow th) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (gr ow th rate ) 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 195 199 220 243 266 286 304 323 346 378 414 GDP pe r w or k e r 22.3 22.7 24.9 27.3 29.7 31.8 33.5 35.6 38.3 42.2 46.6 Re al inte r e s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssumptions
Population grow th (w or k ing age :15-64) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.2 Labour force (thous ands ) 2845 2855 2864 2862 2855 2820 2742 2674 2636 2643 2661 Par ticipation rate (15-64) 79.6 79.7 79.8 80.6 80.7 80.7 80.5 80.8 80.9 81.4 81.3 young (15-24) 65.6 66.0 66.8 68.0 68.2 68.5 68.4 67.8 67.5 67.7 68.1 prim e -age (25-54) 87.9 88.1 88.9 89.3 89.3 89.4 89.6 89.7 89.8 89.8 89.7 olde r (55-64) 64.1 64.4 63.7 66.6 67.9 67.7 66.1 66.2 65.3 67.8 69.0 olde s t (65-71) 11.3 10.9 12.2 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 11.7 11.9 11.6 11.7 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 75.4 75.8 76.4 77.2 77.3 77.3 77.1 77.3 77.5 78.0 77.9 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 70.2 70.4 70.1 69.5 70.0 69.8 69.1 68.6 69.1 69.9 70.8 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.1 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e r s 15.6 16.0 16.1 16.1 17.3 18.5 18.2 17.3 15.4 15.2 17.0 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 22.5 22.6 24.9 28.8 31.5 34.2 37.7 41.3 43.3 43.6 41.9 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 51.0 51.1 52.3 55.0 56.5 59.5 64.4 69.3 71.4 70.7 67.9 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 100.3 99.4 99.4 100.8 102.5 106.4 113.3 118.9 121.2 118.9 115.6 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-64) 28.5 28.6 30.8 35.4 38.8 42.2 46.7 51.1 53.7 53.9 52.0 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-71) 28.2 28.2 30.3 34.7 38.1 41.4 45.7 49.9 52.5 52.8 51.1
LEGENDA :
S h a re o f o ld e r wo rk e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Denmark EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.8 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 10.7 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private m andatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, net 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.9 9.5 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.6 Total pension expenditure, net : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 73 73 73 74 74 74 74 75 75 75 75 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 1255 1286 1395 1511 1598 1675 1749 1788 1787 1748 1702 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 1255 1286 1395 1511 1598 1675 1749 1788 1787 1748 1702 Num ber of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 860 877 980 1120 1204 1273 1348 1416 1441 1428 1371 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 31.5 31.8 29.7 25.9 24.6 24.0 22.9 20.8 19.4 18.3 19.4 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 14.7 14.9 16.0 17.3 18.8 20.5 22.2 24.0 26.1 28.3 31.2 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 72.6 73.9 80.2 88.7 97.2 106.1 115.7 126.0 137.2 149.3 162.5 Social sec. benefit ratio 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 19.0 19.2 Total pension benefit ratio : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 : : : : : : : : : : : Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) : : : : : : : : : : :
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.4 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.9 13.6 13.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.5 8.3 8.9 9.5 10.1 11.0 11.6 11.9 11.6 11.3 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 10.7 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 10.7 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 10.7 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.0 13.1 12.8 12.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.0 10.6 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.8
Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 10.7
Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.1 12.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 10.7 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
Denmark OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7 .4 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 Cons tant health s cenario 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 7 .0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.1 7 .2 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.3 7 .6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7 .5 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.6 AWG reference s cenario 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7 .4 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1 .3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1 .3 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 .2 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 Increas e in form al care 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0 .9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 AWG reference s cenario 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 .2 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 139 14 0 1 50 1 65 180 205 232 248 260 270 27 5 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 139 14 0 1 50 1 65 180 105 232 248 260 270 27 5 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 139 13 8 1 38 1 16 144 155 168 173 175 178 17 9 Increas e in form al care 139 14 0 1 50 1 65 180 205 232 248 260 270 27 5 AWG reference s cenario 139 13 9 1 44 1 53 162 180 200 211 217 224 22 7
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 189 19 0 1 98 2 15 242 280 318 343 363 383 39 7 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 189 19 0 1 98 2 15 242 280 318 343 363 383 39 7 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 189 18 8 1 83 1 86 197 217 239 247 252 260 26 5 Increas e in form al care 189 18 7 1 85 1 93 207 238 270 290 305 320 32 9 AWG reference s cenario 189 18 9 1 90 2 01 219 249 279 295 308 322 33 1
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.6 7 .5 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.5 of which: Transfers 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 .6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Prim ary 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1 .7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1 .2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2 .0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 of which: Transfers 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 .7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Tertiary education 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.5 2 .6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 of which: Transfers 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 .8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1073 1078 1080 1068 102 8 985 972 985 997 990 96 5 Prim ary 423 42 6 4 10 3 90 361 348 362 379 379 364 34 7 Low s econdary 233 23 9 2 61 2 50 239 220 212 221 232 231 22 2 Upper s econdary 220 22 0 2 41 2 51 244 233 219 215 222 228 22 6 Tertiary education 198 19 2 1 68 1 76 184 184 179 170 164 166 16 9 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 3575 3582 3590 3550 353 6 349 4 34 06 33 10 3 257 3 245 3272
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1 .2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
of GDP
Germany Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 76.1 76.3 77.2 78.1 78.9 79.6 80.2 80.7 81.2 81.6 82.0
fe m ale s 81.7 81.9 82.7 83.5 84.2 84.8 85.4 85.8 86.2 86.5 86.8
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.1 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1
fe m ale s 19.5 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.4
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 270.0 250.0 230.0 230.0 215.0 215.0 205.0 205.0 200.0 200.0 200.0
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26
Population (m illion) 82.5 82.7 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.3 82.7 81.8 80.7 79.4 77.7
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 14.7 14.5 13.6 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.3 12.1 12.2
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 43.6 43.5 42.9 42.0 39.7 37.4 36.8 36.6 36.1 35.5 35.3
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 67.3 67.0 66.1 66.0 64.7 62.9 60.4 58.4 58.1 58.2 57.9
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 18.0 18.6 20.3 20.8 22.1 23.9 26.6 29.0 29.6 29.6 29.9
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.9 7.7 7.7 8.5 9.7 11.5 12.7
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 54.9 55.3 57.5 59.9 65.0 70.3 73.4 75.2 75.3 75.0 74.4
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 1.1 1.0 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 2177 2203 2419 2684 2887 3050 3184 3342 3566 3806 4037 GDP pe r w ork e r 20.3 20.5 22.4 24.8 26.6 28.2 29.7 31.5 34.0 36.9 40.0 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Labour force (thous ands ) 40526 40710 42514 43340 42712 41189 39251 37819 37272 36561 35533 Participation rate (15-64) 73.0 73.5 77.4 78.7 79.1 78.7 78.6 79.2 79.5 79.1 79.0 young (15-24) 50.5 50.5 52.6 52.1 52.4 51.8 51.3 51.5 51.8 52.1 52.1 prim e -age (25-54) 86.5 86.9 88.3 88.9 89.4 89.6 89.9 90.1 89.9 89.8 89.8 olde r (55-64) 45.9 47.2 61.7 67.9 69.5 69.0 67.4 68.7 70.7 70.1 69.2 olde s t (65-71) 6.2 6.5 6.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.3 7.9 8.7 8.6 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 66.0 66.6 70.9 73.2 73.5 73.2 73.1 73.7 73.9 73.6 73.5 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 59.9 60.1 63.5 67.0 66.3 65.2 63.7 63.6 65.2 65.9 65.0 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 9.5 9.4 8.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 11.2 11.2 14.2 17.5 20.5 22.3 20.0 17.9 18.9 20.1 20.0 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 26.8 27.7 30.7 31.5 34.2 38.1 44.0 49.7 51.0 50.9 51.7 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 48.7 49.3 51.3 51.5 54.6 59.0 65.5 71.3 72.1 71.8 72.9 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 125.1 124.1 113.6 106.9 110.2 117.3 126.5 132.5 132.8 133.4 135.3 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 39.5 40.4 42.3 41.8 45.1 50.3 58.2 65.4 67.4 67.6 68.7 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 39.0 40.0 41.8 41.3 44.4 49.5 57.0 64.1 66.3 66.6 67.5
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Germany EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Private s ector em ployees , gros s 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.7 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private m andatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Social security pensions, net 10.1 9.6 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.8 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.9 Total pension expenditure, net 10.1 9.6 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.8 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.9 Social security pensions, contributions 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 Total pension contributions 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 Social security pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 88 86 86 85 85 85 84 84 84 83 83 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 88 86 86 85 85 85 84 84 84 83 83 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 23840 24104 25684 26829 28256 30066 32082 33374 33792 34175 34441 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 23840 24104 25684 26829 28256 30066 32082 33374 33792 34175 34441 Num ber of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 19592 20181 21921 22986 24436 26175 28457 30283 30730 30929 31138 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 17.8 16.3 14.7 14.3 13.5 12.9 11.3 9.3 9.1 9.5 9.6 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 10.4 10.2 9.9 10.5 11.2 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.3 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 10.4 10.2 9.9 10.5 11.2 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.3 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 56.2 56.6 59.2 63.4 69.0 75.3 82.1 89.4 97.4 106.0 115.5 Social sec. benefit ratio 18.5 18.0 16.6 16.6 16.2 15.6 14.8 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.3 Total pension benefit ratio 18.5 18.0 16.6 16.6 16.2 15.6 14.8 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.3 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 32206 32486 34316 35624 35263 34135 32698 31514 30869 30255 29472 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1 000€ in 2004 pr ice s 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2 6.0 7.0 8.1 9.2 10.1 11.1 12.2 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 135 135 134 133 125 114 102 94 91 89 86
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1
Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1
Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 All pensions, assets 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
: = data not provided
Germany OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6 .7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 Cons tant health s cenario 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6 .3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.4 6 .6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6 .9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6 .3 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 AWG reference s cenario 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6 .7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1 .3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1 .3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 .1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 Increas e in form al care 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1 .6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 AWG reference s cenario 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 .2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.0
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 2790 2867 3245 3547 394 4 424 4 44 94 49 05 5 299 5 608 5689 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 2790 2867 3245 3547 394 4 230 3 44 94 49 05 5 299 5 608 5689 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 2790 2826 2982 2546 320 8 327 3 32 54 33 91 3 558 3 722 3731 Increas e in form al care 2790 2867 3245 3547 394 4 424 4 44 94 49 05 5 299 5 608 5689 AWG reference s cenario 2790 2847 3114 3296 357 6 375 9 38 74 41 48 4 429 4 665 4710
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 1510 1551 1768 1955 224 4 242 9 25 18 27 48 3 023 3 304 3421 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1510 1551 1768 1955 224 4 242 9 25 18 27 48 3 023 3 304 3421 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1510 1531 1644 1713 187 5 193 9 19 03 19 92 2 131 2 296 2347 Increas e in form al care 1510 1616 2159 2641 319 5 344 5 36 24 39 55 4 297 4 594 4691 AWG reference s cenario 1510 1541 1706 1834 205 9 218 4 22 11 23 70 2 577 2 800 2884
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 1280 1317 1477 1592 170 0 181 5 19 75 21 58 2 276 2 304 2269 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1280 1317 1477 1592 170 0 855 19 75 21 58 2 276 2 304 2269 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1280 1295 1339 1075 133 3 133 5 13 51 13 99 1 427 1 426 1383 Increas e in form al care 1280 1251 1086 9 05 748 799 869 950 1 002 1 014 99 8 AWG reference s cenario 1280 1306 1408 1463 151 7 157 5 16 63 17 78 1 851 1 865 1826
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 3 .2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 of which: Transfers 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Prim ary 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1 .0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tertiary education 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1428 7 141 80 133 48 12 562 1 2136 1 1969 11907 11690 1131 3 1090 2 105 93 Prim ary 3285 3295 3130 2970 302 2 305 0 29 92 28 56 2 726 2 644 2614 Low s econdary 5557 5426 4929 4686 444 8 450 1 45 41 44 55 4 262 4 070 3947 Upper s econdary 3248 3287 3168 2895 275 4 260 4 26 28 26 49 2 605 2 497 2388 Tertiary education 2198 2171 2120 2012 191 1 181 3 17 45 17 30 1 720 1 691 1642 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 5551 0 553 57 549 20 55 052 5 4021 5 2359 49961 47735 4690 1 4619 9 449 75
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0 .9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
of GDP
Estonia Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population sc enario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility r ate 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 65.5 65.7 66.5 67.6 68.9 70.3 71.6 72.7 73.5 74.2 74.9
fe m ale s 76.9 77.0 77.8 78.6 79.5 80.4 81.2 81.8 82.3 82.8 83.1
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.3
fe m ale s 16.9 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.6 20.9
Ne t m igration (thous and) 0.8 0.8 -2.0 -2.5 -0.4 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Ne t m igration as % of population 0.06 0.06 -0.15 -0.19 -0.04 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Population (m illion) 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 16.0 15.4 14.7 15.8 16.4 16.2 15.1 14.1 13.8 14.2 14.8
Pr im e age population (25-54) as % of total 41.5 41.5 42.2 42.9 42.1 40.8 39.6 38.8 37.7 36.0 35.6
Wor k ing age population (15-64) as % of total 67.9 68.1 68.4 66.7 64.9 63.9 63.6 63.9 63.1 61.7 59.6
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.7 20.0 21.2 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.7
V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 3.0 3.1 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.3 7.2 7.8 8.0
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0
Ma croe conom ic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (gr ow th rate ) 6.3 6.3 5.6 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.8 0.8 0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 Labour productivity (gr ow th rate ) 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (grow th r ate ) 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productivity grow th) 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (gr ow th r ate ) 6.8 6.6 6.2 4.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 9 9 13 16 18 20 23 25 27 28 29 GDP pe r w ork e r 9.3 9.9 13.5 17.3 20.5 23.6 26.9 30.0 32.7 34.9 36.7 Re al inte re s t rate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population gr ow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 Labour for ce (thous ands ) 647 650 667 658 630 605 589 577 562 540 511 Participation r ate (15-64) 70.6 70.9 74.2 77.2 77.8 77.3 77.0 76.5 76.6 76.4 76.1 young (15-24) 37.1 37.4 42.4 42.8 37.6 37.3 37.7 38.9 40.4 40.5 38.9 pr im e -age (25-54) 86.6 87.4 89.4 90.3 91.1 91.8 91.9 91.7 91.2 90.9 91.3 olde r (55-64) 57.2 56.5 58.4 62.6 64.8 64.2 65.9 65.7 66.7 66.4 63.7 olde s t (65-71) 15.2 17.0 13.2 14.3 14.9 15.7 15.2 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.3 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 63.8 64.4 68.4 71.8 72.3 71.9 71.6 71.1 71.2 71.1 70.8 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 59.2 59.9 63.4 66.6 66.2 65.6 65.1 65.1 64.8 64.4 63.4 Em ploym e nt gr ow th (15-64) 1.1 0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 Une m ploym e nt r ate (15-64) 9.6 9.1 7.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e rs 13.1 12.9 13.8 15.6 16.6 16.1 16.7 17.6 19.4 21.6 20.0 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 23.8 24.1 24.7 26.3 28.7 31.3 33.4 34.5 36.6 39.1 43.1 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 47.4 46.8 46.2 49.9 54.0 56.6 57.2 56.5 58.5 62.2 67.9 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 130.9 127.7 113.7 108.9 112.9 117.7 119.6 120.1 122.6 128.2 137.1 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-64) 34.8 34.7 34.2 34.7 37.3 40.7 43.9 45.8 48.6 51.9 57.3 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-71) 34.0 33.8 33.5 34.0 36.4 39.6 42.8 44.7 47.2 50.4 55.3
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo rk e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Estonia EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.6 Social security pensions, net 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 Total pension expenditure, net 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.6 Social security pensions, contributions 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Total pension contributions 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 Social security pensions, assets 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.6 7.5 13.0 19.1 25.6 32.5 40.2 All pensions, assets 2.8 3.4 9.4 15.9 25.3 37.6 50.5 63.4 76.9 90.5 101.0
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 378 379 369 357 352 356 359 362 365 370 377 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 378 379 369 357 352 356 359 362 365 370 377 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 283 283 285 281 282 288 290 295 300 308 321 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 25.0 25.2 22.7 21.2 19.9 19.2 19.1 18.5 17.8 16.6 14.9 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.1 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 14.7 15.5 20.4 25.4 30.7 36.2 41.7 46.6 51.3 56.2 61.3 Social sec. benefit ratio 10.5 11.4 11.3 10.2 9.0 8.0 7.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.3 Total pension benefit ratio 10.5 11.4 11.4 10.3 9.3 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.3 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 599 607 626 624 600 578 563 551 538 517 492 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 159 160 170 175 171 162 157 152 147 140 130
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.7 All pensions, assets 2.8 3.4 9.4 15.9 26.0 38.4 51.3 64.1 77.4 90.8 100.8
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 5.9 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 All pensions, assets 2.9 3.4 9.3 15.7 25.8 38.3 51.3 64.3 77.9 91.6 102.3
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.9 All pensions, assets 2.8 3.3 9.3 15.9 25.4 37.7 50.6 63.5 76.9 90.5 100.6
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 7.1 6.8 5.9 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.6 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.6 All pensions, assets 2.8 3.4 9.3 15.9 26.6 39.4 52.7 66.2 80.2 94.5 105.5
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.4 8.0 7.6 6.7 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.4 8.0 7.6 6.7 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.9 All pensions, assets 2.8 3.4 9.3 15.8 25.8 38.1 51.2 64.4 78.0 91.9 102.6
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.0 All pensions, assets 2.8 3.3 9.3 15.2 23.9 35.1 46.8 58.4 70.3 82.5 92.2
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.3 All pensions, assets 2.8 3.3 9.4 16.5 26.8 40.3 54.7 69.3 84.6 100.2 111.9
: = data not provided
Estonia OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5 .8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 Cons tant health s cenario 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5 .5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5 .7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.0 6 .2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.9 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5 .4 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 AWG reference s cenario 5.4 5.5 5.8 6.0 6 .1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 36 36 39 40 42 43 4 6 4 9 51 53 55 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 36 36 39 40 42 21 4 6 4 9 51 53 55 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 36 36 35 28 33 32 3 2 3 3 34 34 34 Increas e in form al care 36 36 39 40 42 43 4 6 4 9 51 53 55 AWG reference s cenario 36 36 37 37 38 38 3 9 4 1 43 43 44
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Increas e in form al care 0 2 10 17 23 24 2 6 2 7 29 30 31 AWG reference s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 36 36 39 40 42 43 4 6 4 9 51 53 55 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 36 36 39 40 42 21 4 6 4 9 51 53 55 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 36 36 35 28 33 32 3 2 3 3 34 34 34 Increas e in form al care 36 35 29 23 18 19 2 0 2 1 23 23 24 AWG reference s cenario 36 36 37 37 38 38 3 9 4 1 43 43 44
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5.0 4.8 3.8 3.4 3 .5 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 of which: Transfers 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Prim ary 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1 .3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Low s econdary 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0 .8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0 .7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tertiary education 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0 .8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 290 28 0 2 35 2 11 209 214 211 199 184 175 17 5 Prim ary 93 87 78 83 87 88 8 2 7 2 67 68 71 Low s econdary 65 61 40 38 40 43 4 3 4 0 35 33 33 Upper s econdary 68 69 54 41 41 43 4 5 4 5 41 36 35 Tertiary education 64 63 62 49 41 40 4 1 4 2 42 39 35 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 916 91 7 8 99 8 53 810 782 765 755 734 706 67 0
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
of GDP
Greece Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 76.4 76.5 77.1 77.6 78.2 78.8 79.3 79.8 80.2 80.6 81.1
fe m ale s 81.4 81.5 82.1 82.8 83.3 83.9 84.4 84.8 85.2 85.6 85.9
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.4 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6
fe m ale s 18.5 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.3
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 42.9 41.9 39.7 40.4 38.7 36.4 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.9
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.33
Population (m illion) 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.7
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.3 12.6 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.2
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 43.7 43.9 44.3 43.0 41.5 39.3 37.0 35.2 33.8 33.6 33.5
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 67.7 67.5 67.1 65.8 64.8 63.8 62.7 60.6 58.4 56.2 54.7
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 17.9 18.1 18.8 20.0 21.2 22.8 24.8 27.2 29.6 31.7 33.1
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 3.3 3.4 4.4 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.8 7.6 8.7 9.7 11.0
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 7.1 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.2 11.3
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 3.7 3.1 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 2.5 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 3.4 2.7 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.5 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 165 170 195 217 237 254 268 279 289 300 315 GDP pe r w ork e r 14.5 14.8 16.7 18.4 20.0 21.5 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.5 28.3 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 Labour force (thous ands ) 4934 4990 5186 5244 5206 5087 4920 4710 4483 4270 4111 Participation rate (15-64) 66.0 66.7 68.6 69.9 70.2 69.8 69.2 69.0 69.0 69.4 70.0 young (15-24) 35.9 36.3 35.2 35.1 34.2 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.2 34.8 34.4 prim e -age (25-54) 80.5 81.0 83.0 84.3 85.0 85.4 85.3 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.4 olde r (55-64) 44.0 44.2 45.6 48.6 50.8 52.6 53.3 54.3 53.8 52.8 53.7 olde s t (65-71) 14.0 13.7 13.5 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.1 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 59.9 60.5 62.7 65.0 65.3 64.9 64.4 64.2 64.2 64.5 65.1 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 55.1 55.7 58.1 59.9 59.7 58.9 58.0 57.2 56.6 56.6 57.0 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.1 0.9 0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 9.3 9.3 8.6 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 11.0 10.9 12.0 13.6 15.2 17.3 19.1 20.3 20.3 18.6 17.4 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 26.4 26.8 28.0 30.3 32.7 35.8 39.5 44.9 50.7 56.3 60.4 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 47.8 48.1 49.1 51.9 54.3 56.6 59.6 64.9 71.3 77.9 82.7 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 146.7 144.9 137.9 133.6 136.2 141.2 148.0 156.9 166.8 175.8 180.8 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 41.4 41.7 42.5 44.2 47.4 52.0 57.9 66.0 74.6 82.8 88.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 40.3 40.7 41.6 43.1 46.1 50.4 56.0 63.5 71.5 79.2 84.7
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Greece OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.5 5 .5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 Cons tant health s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 5 .3 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.3 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.4 5 .4 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 5 .7 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.2 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5 .3 5.6 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 7.9 AWG reference s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5 .6 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.8
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 254 26 2 3 08 3 46 366 386 419 461 503 543 57 8 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 254 26 2 3 08 3 46 366 196 419 461 503 543 57 8 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 254 25 8 2 82 2 48 295 291 300 315 332 348 36 3 Increas e in form al care 254 26 2 3 08 3 46 366 386 419 461 503 543 57 8 AWG reference s cenario 254 26 0 2 95 3 22 330 339 360 388 417 446 47 1
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Increas e in form al care 0 13 82 1 49 205 216 235 258 281 304 32 4 AWG reference s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 254 26 2 3 08 3 46 366 386 419 461 503 543 57 8 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 254 26 2 3 08 3 46 366 196 419 461 503 543 57 8 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 254 25 8 2 82 2 48 295 291 300 315 332 348 36 3 Increas e in form al care 254 24 9 2 26 1 97 161 170 185 203 221 239 25 4 AWG reference s cenario 254 26 0 2 95 3 22 330 339 360 388 417 446 47 1
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2 .9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 of which: Transfers : : : : : : : : : : : Prim ary 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 .0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 of which: Transfers : : : : : : : : : : : Low s econdary 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 of which: Transfers : : : : : : : : : : : Upper s econdary 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0 .5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 of which: Transfers : : : : : : : : : : : Tertiary education 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0 .9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 of which: Transfers : : : : : : : : : : : Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1924 1888 1768 1733 174 1 172 4 16 60 15 76 1 505 1 464 1444 Prim ary 645 63 6 6 22 6 55 659 625 578 547 536 536 53 2 Low s econdary 337 33 6 3 19 3 13 329 329 310 287 273 268 26 9 Upper s econdary 391 38 0 3 57 3 37 345 358 350 327 305 294 29 1 Tertiary education 551 53 6 4 70 4 28 408 412 422 414 391 367 35 2 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 7472 7481 7557 7500 741 4 728 6 71 10 68 23 6 494 6 156 5877
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
of GDP
Spain Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 76.6 76.7 77.6 78.4 79.1 79.7 80.2 80.6 81.0 81.3 81.7
fe m ale s 83.4 83.6 84.3 85.0 85.6 86.1 86.5 86.7 87.0 87.2 87.3
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.7 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0
fe m ale s 20.7 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.7
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 507.5 460.1 112.2 112.5 110.3 107.3 105.3 105.3 104.5 102.8 101.6
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 1.20 1.07 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24
Population (m illion) 42.3 42.9 44.6 45.3 45.6 45.6 45.4 45.1 44.7 44.0 43.0
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.1 14.4 13.0 11.9 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.6
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 45.6 45.9 46.5 45.0 42.7 39.9 37.4 35.0 33.8 33.4 33.4
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 68.6 68.6 67.9 66.6 66.0 65.3 63.8 61.3 58.1 54.9 53.4
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 16.9 16.8 17.2 18.3 19.6 21.7 24.4 27.4 30.5 33.5 35.0
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.7 6.0 6.3 7.1 7.9 9.2 10.7 12.3
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 25.7 26.1 28.3 30.9 32.8 34.6 37.1 40.8 44.3 46.9 47.0
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.0 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 2.4 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 0.6 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.6 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 838 863 1002 1154 1286 1401 1490 1552 1589 1623 1689 GDP pe r w ork e r 17.1 17.4 19.4 22.0 24.4 26.6 28.4 29.7 30.7 31.9 34.0 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 1.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 -1.4 -0.8 Labour force (thous ands ) 19933 20462 22033 22555 22727 22507 21906 20938 19672 18432 17613 Participation rate (15-64) 68.6 69.5 72.7 74.8 75.5 75.6 75.6 75.7 75.7 76.3 76.8 young (15-24) 45.3 45.2 43.7 42.7 40.9 41.7 43.1 44.0 43.8 42.9 42.1 prim e -age (25-54) 80.6 81.5 85.1 87.6 89.0 89.9 90.0 89.7 89.6 89.7 89.9 olde r (55-64) 44.4 45.1 47.9 52.4 57.8 60.9 63.3 64.6 63.5 63.1 63.9 olde s t (65-71) 3.9 5.0 9.8 10.9 11.2 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.1 12.5 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 61.2 62.3 66.4 69.6 70.2 70.3 70.3 70.4 70.4 71.0 71.4 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 56.2 57.5 61.7 64.1 64.4 63.8 62.9 62.1 61.3 60.9 61.8 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 3.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 10.8 10.4 8.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 9.7 9.9 10.7 12.6 15.7 18.3 20.9 23.1 22.6 20.0 18.3 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 24.6 24.5 25.3 27.5 29.8 33.2 38.2 44.6 52.5 61.1 65.6 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 45.8 45.7 47.2 50.2 51.5 53.1 56.8 63.1 72.2 82.3 87.4 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 138.2 134.0 121.8 115.9 115.8 117.9 123.0 131.8 144.4 156.8 162.4 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 39.6 38.6 36.9 38.0 40.7 44.9 51.6 60.4 71.0 82.2 88.4 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 39.4 38.3 36.4 37.4 40.0 44.0 50.3 58.6 68.6 79.1 85.5
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Spain EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.8 13.4 15.2 16.2 15.7 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 8.4 9.8 11.5 12.6 12.3 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.5 6.4 7.7 9.1 10.9 12.0 11.8 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private m andatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.8 13.4 15.2 16.2 15.7 Social security pensions, net 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.8 9.8 11.3 12.7 14.4 15.4 14.9 Total pension expenditure, net 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.8 9.8 11.3 12.7 14.4 15.4 14.9 Social security pensions, contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 8519 8624 9088 9676 10392 11389 12623 13801 14715 15273 15059 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 8519 8624 9088 9676 10392 11389 12623 13801 14715 15273 15059 Num ber of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 8.4 8.7 9.8 10.5 11.5 12.7 14.0 15.1 16.4 17.2 17.6 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 8.4 8.7 9.8 10.5 11.5 12.7 14.0 15.1 16.4 17.2 17.6 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 49.2 49.6 49.8 55.0 60.9 66.9 73.2 79.7 86.9 94.7 103.1 Social sec. benefit ratio 17.2 17.5 19.6 19.1 18.9 19.0 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.2 17.1 Total pension benefit ratio 17.2 17.5 19.6 19.1 18.9 19.0 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.2 17.1 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 : : : : : : : : : : : Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) : : : : : : : : : : :
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.9 13.4 15.2 16.3 15.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 8.4 9.9 11.6 12.7 12.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.9 13.4 15.2 16.3 15.8 All pensions, assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.7 9.1 10.1 11.5 12.9 14.5 15.4 14.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.9 8.1 9.4 11.0 11.9 11.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.7 9.1 10.1 11.5 12.9 14.5 15.4 14.8 All pensions, assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.5 10.6 12.3 14.0 15.9 17.1 16.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.3 7.3 8.7 10.3 12.1 13.3 13.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.5 10.6 12.3 14.0 15.9 17.1 16.7 All pensions, assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.8 13.4 15.1 16.1 15.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 8.4 9.8 11.5 12.5 12.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.8 13.4 15.1 16.1 15.6 All pensions, assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 9.2 10.3 11.7 13.3 15.0 16.0 15.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.1 7.0 8.3 9.7 11.4 12.5 12.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 9.2 10.3 11.7 13.3 15.0 16.0 15.6 All pensions, assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.8 13.4 15.2 16.2 15.7
Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 8.4 9.8 11.5 12.6 12.3
Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.8 13.4 15.2 16.2 15.7 All pensions, assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.8 13.4 15.2 16.2 15.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 8.4 9.8 11.5 12.6 12.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.4 11.8 13.4 15.2 16.2 15.7 All pensions, assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
: = data not provided
Spain OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 Cons tant health s cenario 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.7 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.7 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.1 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.4 AWG reference s cenario 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Increas e in form al care 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 AWG reference s cenario 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 1449 1483 1652 1813 1937 2097 2337 2618 2938 3259 3494 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1449 1483 1652 1813 1937 1108 2337 2618 2938 3259 3494 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1449 1463 1524 1331 1575 1603 1695 1811 1959 2114 2224
Increas e in form al care 1449 1483 1652 1813 1937 2097 2337 2618 2938 3259 3494 AWG reference s cenario 1449 1473 1588 1692 1756 1850 2016 2214 2449 2687 2859
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 444 453 497 532 570 625 693 779 872 958 1014 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 444 453 497 532 570 625 693 779 872 958 1014 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 444 446 454 452 451 460 482 514 551 587 608 Increas e in form al care 444 505 803 1084 1335 1449 1614 1809 2029 2246 2403 AWG reference s cenario 444 450 476 492 510 542 588 646 711 772 811
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 1004 1030 1154 1281 1367 1473 1644 1839 2066 2301 2480 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1004 1030 1154 1281 1367 811 1644 1839 2066 2301 2480 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1004 1017 1070 958 1124 1142 1213 1297 1408 1527 1616 Increas e in form al care 1004 978 848 729 602 648 723 809 909 1013 1091 AWG reference s cenario 1004 1023 1112 1200 1245 1307 1428 1568 1737 1914 2048
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Prim ary 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tertiary education 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 7275 7211 7031 7161 7299 7089 6576 6037 5705 5601 5569 Prim ary 2494 2506 2740 2963 2885 2589 2287 2131 2128 2180 2164 Low s econdary 1961 1948 1853 1965 2132 2090 1885 1668 1551 1543 1579 Upper s econdary 1054 1034 953 904 986 1037 991 886 794 753 757 Tertiary education 1766 1723 1485 1330 1296 1373 1413 1351 1232 1125 1070 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 29050 29458 30301 30152 30100 29788 28979 27673 25972 24150 22937
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
of GDP
France Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 76.2 76.4 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.0 80.6 81.2 81.6 82.0 82.3
fe m ale s 83.4 83.6 84.4 85.2 85.8 86.4 86.8 87.2 87.5 87.7 87.9
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 17.0 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5
fe m ale s 21.3 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.5
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 63.9 63.2 61.6 62.1 60.3 59.2 58.9 58.9 58.8 58.8 58.7
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
Population (m illion) 59.9 60.2 61.5 62.6 63.5 64.3 64.9 65.5 65.6 65.5 65.1
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 18.6 18.5 18.2 17.9 17.2 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 41.6 41.3 40.0 38.8 37.4 36.3 35.6 35.4 35.1 34.8 34.9
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 65.1 65.1 65.0 63.5 62.3 61.0 59.6 58.4 57.5 57.5 57.5
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 16.4 16.5 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 24.0 25.4 26.4 26.4 26.6
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.4 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.1 7.5 8.7 9.6 10.2 10.6
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 41.8 42.3 45.1 48.6 51.5 54.4 57.6 59.7 61.5 61.6 61.2
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 1625 1661 1852 2056 2234 2433 2645 2857 3091 3348 3619 GDP pe r w ork e r 21.2 21.6 23.5 25.7 27.5 29.6 31.8 34.1 36.8 39.9 43.4 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Labour force (thous ands ) 27114 27372 28057 28238 28117 28112 28080 27860 27695 27557 27365 Participation rate (15-64) 69.6 69.9 70.2 71.1 71.1 71.7 72.5 72.8 73.4 73.1 73.1 young (15-24) 39.2 39.6 40.1 39.5 38.8 40.0 39.8 39.7 39.7 39.5 39.4 prim e -age (25-54) 86.4 86.7 87.9 88.9 89.3 89.6 89.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.1 olde r (55-64) 40.2 42.3 43.8 46.5 48.5 50.5 53.4 52.9 54.9 54.4 54.1 olde s t (65-71) 3.9 4.1 6.2 8.0 7.9 8.2 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 63.1 63.5 64.4 66.1 66.2 66.7 67.4 67.7 68.2 68.0 68.0 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 58.1 58.6 59.7 60.1 59.3 59.8 60.3 60.5 60.9 61.2 61.0 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 9.3 9.1 8.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 9.3 10.1 12.2 13.1 14.0 14.6 15.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 14.8 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 25.2 25.3 25.8 29.4 33.0 36.5 40.2 43.4 45.9 45.9 46.4 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 53.7 53.7 53.8 57.5 60.6 63.9 67.7 71.1 73.9 73.8 74.0 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 143.5 142.0 139.0 138.3 142.8 145.8 148.7 152.6 154.9 155.5 156.0 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 39.3 39.3 39.3 43.1 48.3 53.2 57.8 62.1 65.3 65.7 66.3 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 39.1 39.0 39.0 42.5 47.6 52.3 56.8 61.0 64.0 64.5 65.1
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
France EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 Social security pensions, net 12.2 12.1 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 Total pension expenditure, net 12.2 12.1 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 Social security pensions, contributions 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 Total pension contributions 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 Social security pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 : All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 12925 12975 13815 15023 16288 17417 18484 19511 19948 20036 19931 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 12925 12975 13815 15023 16288 17417 18484 19511 19948 20036 19931 Num ber of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 16.1 16.4 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.7 23.2 24.9 26.9 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 16.1 16.4 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.7 23.2 24.9 26.9 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 66.1 66.9 72.0 78.3 85.4 93.1 101.3 110.3 120.0 130.6 142.2 Social sec. benefit ratio 24.4 24.6 24.1 23.0 22.0 21.1 20.3 19.7 19.3 19.1 18.9 Total pension benefit ratio 24.4 24.6 24.1 23.0 22.0 21.1 20.3 19.7 19.3 19.1 18.9 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 24645 24904 25796 26342 26229 26224 26194 25989 25835 25706 25527 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 8.5 8.6 9.2 10.0 11.0 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.4 16.8 18.2 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 8.5 8.6 9.2 10.0 11.0 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.4 16.8 18.2 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 191 192 187 175 161 151 142 133 130 128 128
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.4 All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.0
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.4 All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.0
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.6 0.8 :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 14.9 14.8 14.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 14.9 14.8 14.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 14.9 14.8 14.7 All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.0
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.4 All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.9 4.0 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.0
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8
Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.7 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.0
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.8 All pensions, assets 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.5 3.9 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.0
: = data not provided
France OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 Cons tant health s cenario 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 Death-related cos ts s cenario 7.7 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.0 10.1 AWG reference s cenario 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 1973 2012 2185 2387 2624 2915 3281 3610 3844 3950 3983 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1973 2012 2185 2387 2624 1474 3281 3610 3844 3950 3983 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1973 1984 2015 1734 2115 2194 2363 2509 2585 2583 2536 Increas e in form al care 1973 2012 2185 2387 2624 2915 3281 3610 3844 3950 3983 AWG reference s cenario 1973 1998 2100 2224 2369 2555 2822 3059 3215 3266 3259
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Increas e in form al care 0 101 579 1029 1469 1632 1837 2021 2152 2211 2230 AWG reference s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 1973 2012 2185 2387 2624 2915 3281 3610 3844 3950 3983 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1973 2012 2185 2387 2624 1474 3281 3610 3844 3950 3983 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1973 1984 2015 1734 2115 2194 2363 2509 2585 2583 2536 Increas e in form al care 1973 1912 1606 1358 1155 1283 1444 1589 1692 1738 1753 AWG reference s cenario 1973 1998 2100 2224 2369 2555 2822 3059 3215 3266 3259
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Prim ary 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tertiary education 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 11730 11673 11667 11703 11667 11475 11280 11156 11103 11076 11004 Prim ary 3779 3800 4033 3940 3843 3781 3731 3715 3734 3713 3652 Low s econdary 3250 3203 3141 3337 3240 3163 3113 3073 3062 3078 3059 Upper s econdary 2615 2610 2498 2508 2631 2548 2496 2459 2430 2428 2437 Tertiary education 2085 2060 1996 1918 1954 1982 1940 1909 1877 1857 1856 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 38969 39152 39961 39721 39526 39208 38729 38256 37750 37687 37440
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
of GDP
Ireland Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population s cenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De m ographic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility r ate 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Life e xpe ctancy at birth
m ale s 75.5 75.7 76.8 77.8 78.7 79.5 80.2 80.8 81.3 81.7 82.2
fe m ale s 80.7 80.9 81.8 82.8 83.6 84.4 85.0 85.6 86.0 86.5 86.8
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 15.4 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2
fe m ale s 18.6 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.4
Ne t m igration (thous and) 16.4 16.1 15.3 15.0 14.0 13.4 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.4
Ne t m igration as % of population 0.41 0.40 0.35 0.33 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23
Population (m illion) 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 20.9 20.8 21.0 20.8 19.8 18.2 16.8 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.0
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 42.7 43.0 43.9 43.3 41.9 40.7 39.4 38.1 36.9 36.2 36.0
Wor k ing age population (15-64) as % of total 68.0 68.0 67.3 66.0 65.4 65.3 64.8 63.7 61.7 59.5 57.8
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 11.1 11.2 11.8 13.2 14.8 16.5 18.4 20.2 22.2 24.3 26.2
V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.4 7.2 8.0
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.1
Macroe conom ic assum ptions
Re al GDP (grow th rate ) 6.1 5.7 5.2 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 Labour productivity (grow th r ate ) 3.3 3.3 3.8 3.2 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (grow th r ate ) 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th rate ) 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.4 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 146 154 200 251 298 342 384 423 456 488 523 GDP pe r w ork e r 26.6 27.8 34.0 40.4 46.0 51.0 55.6 59.7 63.1 66.2 70.1 Re al inte re s t rate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 Labour force (thous ands ) 1909 1955 2135 2258 2358 2449 2517 2549 2529 2481 2444 Par ticipation rate (15-64) 69.7 70.6 73.4 75.1 75.7 76.1 76.7 77.0 77.1 77.0 77.2 young (15-24) 53.6 54.0 54.0 52.0 50.9 51.6 53.0 53.7 53.6 52.8 52.1 prim e -age (25-54) 79.9 80.6 83.3 84.8 85.8 86.4 86.7 86.8 86.8 86.7 86.8 olde r (55-64) 51.0 51.8 56.3 61.6 65.4 67.5 69.3 69.9 69.8 69.1 69.5 olde s t (65-71) 16.3 16.6 18.0 19.3 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.0 20.5 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 66.7 67.7 70.9 72.5 73.2 73.6 74.0 74.4 74.5 74.4 74.6 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 63.5 64.5 67.2 68.1 68.4 68.5 68.6 68.5 68.0 67.3 67.0 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 2.7 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 4.3 4.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
De pendency ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e rs 10.1 10.4 12.0 13.4 15.0 16.2 17.8 19.6 20.6 19.6 18.1 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 16.4 16.5 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.2 28.3 31.7 36.0 40.9 45.2 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 47.1 47.1 48.7 51.5 52.8 53.1 54.3 57.1 62.1 68.1 72.9 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 120.4 117.2 109.6 108.9 108.9 108.1 108.4 111.2 117.7 125.9 132.0 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 22.9 22.7 22.8 25.1 28.2 31.4 35.1 39.2 44.4 50.6 56.3 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 22.5 22.3 22.4 24.5 27.4 30.5 34.0 37.9 42.8 48.5 53.9
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Ireland EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.0 9.0 9.9 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, net : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, contributions 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Total pension contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, assets 7.3 8.0 11.1 14.4 18.1 22.5 26.0 27.9 28.3 26.5 21.9 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 606 658 721 814 916 1033 1162 1283 1416 1550 1674 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 11.4 10.8 14.5 18.2 21.1 23.9 26.0 28.1 30.1 32.4 34.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 79.8 82.4 97.0 114.9 130.7 144.4 157.8 171.6 186.8 203.4 221.5 Social sec. benefit ratio 14.3 13.1 14.9 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.7 Total pension benefit ratio : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 2661 2733 3003 3175 3317 3445 3541 3585 3557 3489 3437 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 439 415 416 390 362 333 305 279 251 225 205
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.5 11.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.7 7.4 8.2 9.2 10.2 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.4 10.3 11.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.9 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.0 9.0 9.8 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.8 8.5 9.3 10.2 11.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.8 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.8 8.5 9.3 10.2 11.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.6 7.2 8.0 8.9 9.8 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.0 9.0 9.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.2 8.0 9.0 9.9 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
Ireland OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.3 Cons tant health s cenario 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.7 AWG reference s cenario 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 Increas e in form al care 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 AWG reference s cenario 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands ) Pure ageing s cenario 91 93 103 118 137 162 193 223 254 287 319 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 91 93 103 118 137 81 193 223 254 287 319 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 91 92 94 83 109 122 138 153 168 184 199
Increas e in form al care 91 93 103 118 137 162 193 223 254 287 319 AWG reference s cenario 91 92 98 109 123 142 165 188 211 236 259
of which re ce iving formal care Pure ageing s cenario 49 50 55 62 72 87 106 125 144 164 184 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 49 50 55 62 72 87 106 125 144 164 184 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 49 50 52 55 60 68 81 92 102 114 124 Increas e in form al care 49 52 68 86 109 129 154 180 206 233 259 AWG reference s cenario 49 50 54 59 66 78 93 108 123 139 154
of which re ce iving informal or no care Pure ageing s cenario 42 43 47 55 65 76 87 98 111 123 135 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 42 43 47 55 65 30 87 98 111 123 135 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 42 42 43 36 49 53 57 61 66 71 75 Increas e in form al care 42 41 35 31 29 33 38 43 49 54 60 AWG reference s cenario 42 42 45 50 57 64 72 80 88 97 105
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 of which: Transfers 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Prim ary 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tertiary education 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 992 983 983 1029 1065 1061 1021 981 967 977 992 Prim ary 450 453 494 533 531 502 470 458 469 486 489 Low s econdary 174 172 166 179 199 199 189 175 170 174 181 Upper s econdary 192 187 170 175 189 200 198 186 175 173 177 Tertiary education 177 171 154 143 146 159 164 161 152 146 145 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thousands ) 2738 2771 2908 3008 3113 3216 3284 3311 3281 3220 3166
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
of GDP
Italy Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population s cenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De m ographic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility r ate 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Life e xpe ctancy at birth
m ale s 77.3 77.5 78.3 79.1 79.9 80.5 81.1 81.6 82.1 82.4 82.8
fe m ale s 83.2 83.3 84.0 84.7 85.3 85.9 86.4 86.8 87.2 87.5 87.8
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.7 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4
fe m ale s 20.6 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.1
Ne t m igration (thous and) 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0
Ne t m igration as % of population 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28
Population (m illion) 57.9 58.0 58.5 58.6 58.4 58.0 57.5 56.9 56.1 55.1 53.8
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.0 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 43.9 43.8 43.1 41.9 39.9 37.5 35.5 34.4 34.0 33.9 33.7
Wor k ing age population (15-64) as % of total 66.6 66.3 65.5 64.3 63.8 63.0 61.1 58.5 56.1 54.7 54.6
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 19.2 19.5 20.6 22.0 23.2 24.7 27.1 29.9 32.3 33.7 33.9
V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.8 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.3 7.7 8.6 9.2 10.1 11.7 13.3
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 39.5 40.1 41.9 44.1 46.0 48.4 51.7 55.0 57.3 57.9 56.8
Macroe conom ic assum ptions
Re al GDP (grow th rate ) 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 Labour productivity (grow th r ate ) 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (grow th r ate ) 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th rate ) 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 1351 1371 1509 1655 1802 1927 2036 2118 2199 2310 2450 GDP pe r w ork e r 20.1 20.4 22.2 24.3 26.6 28.6 30.5 32.1 33.8 36.1 39.2 Re al inte re s t rate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -0.5 Labour force (thous ands ) 24148 24180 25209 25395 25393 24871 24116 23026 21935 21157 20609 Par ticipation rate (15-64) 62.6 62.9 65.8 67.4 68.1 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.7 70.2 70.2 young (15-24) 37.2 36.8 37.0 37.3 36.5 37.1 37.8 37.8 37.5 37.2 37.1 prim e -age (25-54) 77.4 77.6 80.9 82.2 83.2 83.7 83.9 83.9 84.0 84.1 84.1 olde r (55-64) 31.2 32.1 36.8 41.7 47.4 50.0 53.2 54.4 54.2 54.8 55.3 olde s t (65-71) 5.8 6.1 6.0 7.0 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.1 8.2 7.9 8.0 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 57.4 57.7 61.0 63.0 63.7 63.6 64.2 64.7 65.2 65.6 65.7 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 52.2 52.4 55.3 56.8 57.2 56.8 56.3 55.7 55.8 56.5 57.5 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 0.4 0.7 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 8.4 8.2 7.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
De pendency ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e rs 9.0 9.3 10.6 12.2 15.4 18.2 20.4 20.3 18.6 17.6 17.7 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 28.9 29.5 31.4 34.2 36.4 39.2 44.4 51.0 57.6 61.5 62.2 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 50.2 50.8 52.7 55.5 56.7 58.6 63.6 70.8 78.2 82.7 83.2 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 161.7 161.3 150.1 146.8 145.9 149.4 155.0 164.2 173.5 178.4 179.0 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 49.2 49.9 50.3 53.0 55.7 60.0 67.1 76.6 85.8 91.5 92.7 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 48.6 49.3 49.8 52.3 54.9 59.1 65.7 74.8 83.8 89.5 90.9
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Italy EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.4 14.7 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.7 15.3 14.5 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.2 14.8 14.0 Private s ector em ployees , gros s 10.5 10.5 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.7 11.4 10.8 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private m andatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.4 14.7 Social security pensions, net 12.2 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.9 12.3 13.0 13.6 13.8 13.4 12.6 Total pension expenditure, net 12.2 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.9 12.3 13.0 13.6 13.8 13.4 12.6 Social security pensions, contributions 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.6 Total pension contributions 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.6 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 86 86 85 85 85 86 86 87 87 87 86 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 86 86 85 85 85 86 86 87 87 87 86 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 15595 15619 15665 16088 16783 17777 19131 20188 20774 20639 20206 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 15595 15619 15665 16088 16783 17777 19131 20188 20774 20639 20206 Num ber of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 11318 11486 12003 12908 13516 14280 15524 16808 17826 18060 17638 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 27.4 26.5 23.4 19.8 19.5 19.7 18.9 16.7 14.2 12.5 12.7 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 12.3 12.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 12.3 12.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.8 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 61.8 62.2 64.5 69.7 75.9 82.8 90.3 98.4 107.2 116.8 127.2 Social sec. benefit ratio 20.0 20.1 20.8 20.4 19.8 18.8 17.7 16.7 15.7 14.8 14.0 Total pension benefit ratio 20.0 20.1 20.8 20.4 19.8 18.8 17.7 16.7 15.7 14.8 14.0 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 22777 22951 24247 24755 24775 24323 23378 22373 21440 20830 20340 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.9 7.6 8.2 8.9 9.8 10.7 11.7 12.8 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 146 147 155 154 148 137 122 111 103 101 101
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.9 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.1 15.7 14.9 Old-age and early pensions, gross 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.6 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.5 14.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.9 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.1 15.7 14.9 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.4 14.9 14.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.2 14.7 14.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.4 14.9 14.1 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.0 15.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.3 15.9 15.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.0 15.2 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.5 15.8 15.4 14.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 13.9 14.0 13.6 13.5 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.7 15.3 14.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.5 15.8 15.4 14.7 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.0 15.6 14.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 13.9 14.0 13.6 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.5 15.8 15.4 14.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.0 15.6 14.8 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.4 14.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.7 15.3 14.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.4 14.7 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.4 14.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.7 15.3 14.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 15.9 15.4 14.7 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
Italy OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 Cons tant health s cenario 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.4 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.8 AWG reference s cenario 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Increas e in form al care 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 AWG reference s cenario 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 2214 2267 2494 2702 2880 3050 3286 3557 3859 4131 4 272 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 2214 2267 2494 2702 2880 1568 3286 3557 3859 4131 4 272 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 2214 2234 2290 1935 2319 2309 2362 2431 2531 2645 2 698 Increas e in form al care 2214 2267 2494 2702 2880 3050 3286 3557 3859 4131 4 272 AWG reference s cenario 2214 2250 2392 2510 2600 2680 2824 2994 3195 3388 3 485
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 1126 1155 1274 1392 1485 1570 1703 1835 1976 2114 2 201 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1126 1155 1274 1392 1485 1570 1703 1835 1976 2114 2 201 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1126 1139 1175 1202 1208 1203 1241 1274 1321 1383 1 423 Increas e in form al care 1126 1211 1597 1957 2266 2399 2589 2799 3030 3243 3 360 AWG reference s cenario 1126 1147 1225 1297 1346 1386 1472 1554 1648 1749 1 812
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 1088 1112 1220 1310 1395 1481 1583 1722 1883 2017 2 071 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1088 1112 1220 1310 1395 732 1583 1722 1883 2017 2 071 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1088 1095 1116 922 1112 1106 1121 1157 1210 1262 1 275 Increas e in form al care 1088 1056 897 745 614 652 697 758 829 888 912 AWG reference s cenario 1088 1103 1168 1213 1253 1293 1352 1440 1547 1639 1 673
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Prim ary 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tertiary education 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 9313 9243 8953 8881 8702 8313 7860 7498 7279 7147 7 005 Prim ary 2766 2753 2836 2836 2652 2449 2325 2273 2254 2227 2 155 Low s econdary 1857 1834 1747 1807 1784 1658 1536 1469 1442 1433 1 412 Upper s econdary 2741 2739 2676 2622 2691 2616 2432 2270 2186 2150 2 133 Tertiary education 1949 1916 1695 1617 1575 1590 1568 1485 1397 1337 1 304 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 3 8549 384 54 38295 37687 37265 36563 35138 33288 31467 30146 29342
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
of GDP
Cyprus Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population s cenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De m ographic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility r ate 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Life e xpe ctancy at birth
m ale s 76.3 76.5 77.5 78.3 79.0 79.6 80.2 80.7 81.1 81.5 81.9
fe m ale s 80.8 80.9 81.6 82.3 82.8 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.5 84.8 85.1
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.2 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9
fe m ale s 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7
Ne t m igration (thous and) 6.1 6.2 6.3 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9
Ne t m igration as % of population 0.83 0.83 0.81 0.67 0.53 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Population (m illion) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 20.0 19.4 16.6 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.3 14.3 13.4 13.1 13.3
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 42.5 42.6 43.8 43.9 43.5 42.7 41.4 40.1 38.1 36.8 35.9
Wor k ing age population (15-64) as % of total 68.1 68.4 70.0 69.5 67.4 65.2 63.8 63.6 63.6 62.9 60.5
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 11.9 12.1 13.4 15.3 17.2 19.1 21.0 22.0 22.9 24.0 26.1
V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.4 6.3 7.2 8.0 8.2
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Macroe conom ic assum ptions
Re al GDP (grow th rate ) 3.9 3.3 4.5 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.2 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 Labour productivity (grow th r ate ) 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (grow th r ate ) 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th rate ) 1.7 2.1 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.0 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 12 13 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 47 GDP pe r w ork e r 16.5 16.8 19.8 23.4 26.8 30.0 33.5 37.2 40.7 43.8 46.2 Re al inte re s t rate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 Labour force (thous ands ) 360 371 422 458 474 478 480 485 490 487 476 Par ticipation rate (15-64) 72.3 73.4 76.8 79.6 81.2 81.7 81.6 81.2 80.9 80.4 80.7 young (15-24) 44.1 44.9 45.6 48.1 47.9 45.3 44.2 44.7 45.9 46.9 47.1 prim e -age (25-54) 86.9 87.9 91.0 93.0 94.0 94.5 94.6 94.5 94.3 94.2 94.2 olde r (55-64) 54.6 56.6 62.8 65.5 66.9 67.1 69.0 70.9 72.6 71.0 70.6 olde s t (65-71) 15.1 16.2 16.9 17.9 17.4 17.7 17.2 17.0 17.9 18.6 18.8 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 69.2 70.5 73.6 76.2 77.8 78.2 78.2 77.8 77.5 77.0 77.3 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 65.4 66.5 69.1 71.0 71.8 71.7 71.1 71.1 71.0 70.1 69.0 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 3.5 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
De pendency ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e rs 11.0 11.5 13.3 14.7 15.8 15.7 15.9 17.1 20.1 21.4 21.1 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 17.5 17.7 19.1 22.1 25.5 29.3 32.9 34.7 36.1 38.2 43.2 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 46.9 46.1 42.8 44.0 48.4 53.3 56.8 57.2 57.2 59.0 65.2 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 112.1 107.4 94.0 88.9 90.7 96.0 100.6 102.0 102.9 106.4 113.6 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 23.6 23.4 24.1 26.6 30.3 34.8 39.2 41.9 43.8 46.4 51.9 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 23.2 23.0 23.6 26.0 29.6 33.8 38.1 40.8 42.6 45.0 49.9
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Cyprus EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 Social security pensions, net : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, contributions 5.5 5.7 6.4 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.1 Total pension contributions 5.5 5.7 6.4 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.1 Social security pensions, assets 39.3 38.7 39.6 39.7 37.9 33.4 25.1 14.7 1.9 : : All pensions, assets 39.3 38.7 39.6 39.7 37.9 33.4 25.1 14.7 1.9 : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 89 91 113 138 166 194 218 232 243 260 293 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 89 91 113 138 166 194 218 232 243 260 293 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 9.6 9.8 11.4 12.7 14.2 15.5 17.9 21.0 24.7 28.0 31.4 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 9.6 9.8 11.4 12.7 14.2 15.5 17.9 21.0 24.7 28.0 31.4 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 37.5 38.4 39.8 45.7 52.8 60.8 69.6 77.8 85.5 93.5 102.0 Social sec. benefit ratio 25.6 25.6 28.6 27.9 26.9 25.5 25.7 27.0 28.9 29.9 30.8 Total pension benefit ratio 25.6 25.6 28.6 27.9 26.9 25.5 25.7 27.0 28.9 29.9 30.8 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 344 356 404 438 454 458 459 465 469 467 456 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.3 6.8 7.3 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 387 390 359 317 273 235 211 200 193 180 156
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Old-age and early pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.6 18.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.6 18.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.6 18.4 All pensions, assets 39.3 38.7 39.5 39.1 36.8 32.1 24.2 14.7 3.4 : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 10.0 11.1 12.6 14.1 15.8 17.8 21.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 10.0 11.1 12.6 14.1 15.8 17.8 21.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 10.0 11.1 12.6 14.1 15.8 17.8 21.4 All pensions, assets 39.3 38.7 39.5 39.6 37.4 32.1 22.6 10.4 : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 12.1 13.4 14.9 16.5 19.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 12.1 13.4 14.9 16.5 19.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.9 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 12.1 13.4 14.9 16.5 19.7 All pensions, assets 39.3 38.7 40.0 40.5 39.0 34.4 26.2 15.7 2.7 : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.3 7.8 10.0 12.2 15.0 18.4 23.2 28.7 35.1 42.5 54.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.3 7.8 10.0 12.2 15.0 18.4 23.2 28.7 35.1 42.5 54.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.3 7.8 10.0 12.2 15.0 18.4 23.2 28.7 35.1 42.5 54.1 All pensions, assets 39.3 39.2 42.1 44.0 42.6 35.0 17.3 : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8
Total pension expenditure, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.9 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 12.2 13.5 15.0 16.7 19.8 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
Cyprus OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3 .6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 Cons tant health s cenario 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3 .3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 Death-related cos ts s cenario 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3 .4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3 .8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 3 .5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 AWG reference s cenario 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3 .6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 1 4 15 17 21 25 29 34 3 8 41 44 47 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1 4 15 17 21 25 14 34 3 8 41 44 47 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1 4 15 16 14 19 22 24 2 6 27 28 29 Increas e in form al care 1 4 15 17 21 25 29 34 3 8 41 44 47 AWG reference s cenario 1 4 15 16 19 22 25 29 3 2 34 36 38
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Increas e in form al care 0 1 5 9 14 16 19 2 1 23 25 26 AWG reference s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 1 4 15 17 21 25 29 34 3 8 41 44 47 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1 4 15 17 21 25 14 34 3 8 41 44 47 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1 4 15 16 14 19 22 24 2 6 27 28 29 Increas e in form al care 1 4 14 13 12 11 13 15 1 7 18 19 21 AWG reference s cenario 1 4 15 16 19 22 25 29 3 2 34 36 38
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 6.3 6.2 5.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4 .3 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 of which: Transfers 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Prim ary 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1 .3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1 .1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.0 1 .1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tertiary education 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 145 143 130 117 116 12 3 129 130 125 1 19 117 Prim ary 6 2 59 49 48 51 56 57 5 4 50 48 50 Low s econdary 3 3 34 30 25 25 28 30 3 0 29 27 26 Upper s econdary 3 2 32 32 27 24 26 28 3 0 29 27 26 Tertiary education 1 8 18 18 17 15 14 14 1 5 16 16 15 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 497 506 549 575 583 58 5 588 597 606 6 06 590
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
of GDP
Latv ia Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population s cenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De m ographic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility r ate 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Life e xpe ctancy at birth
m ale s 64.9 65.0 65.8 66.8 68.0 69.5 70.9 72.0 72.9 73.6 74.3
fe m ale s 76.2 76.3 76.9 77.7 78.6 79.5 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.1 82.5
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5
fe m ale s 16.6 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.7
Ne t m igration (thous and) -2.1 -2.1 -2.6 -4.1 -0.7 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8
Ne t m igration as % of population -0.09 -0.09 -0.12 -0.19 -0.03 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Population (m illion) 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 15.4 14.8 13.7 15.1 16.2 16.2 15.1 13.8 13.4 14.0 14.8
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 41.7 41.8 43.0 43.8 43.0 41.1 39.4 38.5 37.3 35.7 35.0
Wor k ing age population (15-64) as % of total 68.4 68.6 68.9 67.2 65.5 64.1 63.7 63.9 63.0 61.4 59.1
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 16.2 16.5 17.4 17.7 18.4 19.7 21.3 22.3 23.5 24.5 26.1
V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.9 3.0 3.9 4.5 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.2 7.2 8.0 8.3
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
Macroe conom ic assum ptions
Re al GDP (grow th rate ) 7.5 8.1 7.4 4.2 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 1.1 1.5 0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1 -1.3 Labour productivity (grow th r ate ) 6.4 6.5 6.5 4.8 4.0 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (grow th r ate ) 3.0 3.0 3.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productivity grow th) 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th rate ) 8.1 8.7 8.0 4.9 3.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 11 12 17 22 26 30 33 36 39 41 41 GDP pe r w ork e r 8.4 9.1 13.6 18.2 22.1 25.6 29.2 32.5 35.4 37.6 39.2 Re al inte re s t rate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) -0.3 -0.7 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 Labour force (thous ands ) 1112 1121 1168 1157 1097 1043 1005 979 950 907 850 Par ticipation rate (15-64) 70.1 70.8 75.6 79.1 79.2 78.6 78.1 77.4 77.6 77.4 76.8 young (15-24) 39.8 40.4 45.7 48.0 40.9 39.9 40.4 42.0 43.9 44.4 42.5 prim e -age (25-54) 87.1 87.8 90.9 92.0 92.8 93.5 93.8 93.6 93.1 92.7 92.9 olde r (55-64) 48.4 49.8 56.3 61.2 61.6 61.5 63.3 62.9 64.4 63.8 60.5 olde s t (65-71) 15.1 16.1 14.6 17.1 17.2 17.6 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 18.1 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 63.2 64.4 69.9 73.6 73.7 73.1 72.6 72.0 72.2 71.9 71.4 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 58.5 59.7 64.6 68.6 68.0 66.9 66.0 65.9 65.8 65.3 64.1 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.5 0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1 -1.3 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 9.8 9.1 7.6 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pendency ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e rs 11.4 11.5 12.3 14.5 15.9 15.9 16.4 16.9 18.6 20.8 19.6 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 23.6 24.1 25.2 26.3 28.0 30.7 33.4 34.9 37.4 39.9 44.1 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 46.1 45.7 45.1 48.7 52.7 55.9 57.1 56.5 58.7 62.8 69.1 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 131.3 126.4 107.5 102.1 107.3 113.3 116.4 117.4 119.7 126.2 136.9 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 35.1 34.9 34.0 33.6 35.6 39.1 42.9 45.5 48.6 52.2 57.8 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 34.2 34.0 33.3 32.9 34.7 38.0 41.7 44.2 47.1 50.5 55.7
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Latv ia EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.3 Social security pensions, net 6.7 6.3 4.8 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 Total pension expenditure, net 6.7 6.3 4.8 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.3 8.0 Social security pensions, contributions 7.1 7.9 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 Total pension contributions 7.3 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 Social security pensions, assets : 0.8 5.2 7.8 9.3 8.7 6.5 3.4 0.2 : : All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 12.9 25.9 38.0 48.2 57.4 64.6 68.8 71.4 71.5
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 99 99 99 99 99 99 98 98 98 97 97 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 599 592 533 529 544 567 575 583 588 595 611 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 599 592 533 529 544 567 575 583 588 595 611 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 375 386 394 395 400 417 429 434 443 449 467 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 37.4 34.7 26.1 25.3 26.4 26.5 25.5 25.5 24.6 24.6 23.6 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.6 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 11.0 11.7 15.9 20.8 25.8 30.8 35.6 39.9 43.9 48.0 52.5 Social sec. benefit ratio 11.4 11.0 9.9 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.1 7.2 Total pension benefit ratio 11.4 11.0 9.9 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.7 10.7 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 1089 1112 1183 1167 1111 1053 1013 988 963 922 872 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 182 188 222 220 204 186 176 170 164 155 143
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.7 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.7 8.4 All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 12.9 25.9 38.0 48.2 57.3 64.3 68.0 69.9 70.2
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.3 8.0 All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 12.9 25.8 37.8 47.9 56.9 63.9 68.1 70.9 71.4
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.6 All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 12.9 26.0 38.3 48.7 58.1 65.5 69.7 72.2 72.4
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.2 All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 13.0 26.0 38.1 48.4 57.6 64.8 69.0 71.7 71.8
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.2 All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 12.9 25.9 37.8 47.9 57.0 64.1 68.2 70.6 70.7
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 12.7 25.2 36.3 45.3 52.7 57.9 60.4 61.8 61.4
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.8 6.4 4.9 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.0 9.0 All pensions, assets 0.3 1.7 13.1 26.6 39.8 51.6 62.8 72.3 78.7 82.9 83.5
: = data not provided
Latvia OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.1 5.2 5.3 5 .4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5 .9 5.9 Cons tant health s cenario 5.1 5.2 5.3 5 .3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5 .3 5.3 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.1 5.2 5.3 5 .4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5 .5 5.5 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.1 5.2 5.6 5 .8 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6 .5 6.5 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.1 5.1 4.8 4 .8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5 .8 6.1 AWG reference s cenario 5.1 5.2 5.5 5 .8 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6 .2 6.2
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0 .8 0.8 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.4 0.4 0.5 0 .5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0 .8 0.8 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0 .6 0.6 Increas e in form al care 0.4 0.5 0.9 1 .3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2 .8 3.0 AWG reference s cenario 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0 .7 0.7
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 65 6 6 72 74 76 79 82 8 6 92 96 99 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 65 6 6 72 74 76 39 82 8 6 92 96 99 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 65 6 5 65 52 61 59 58 5 8 60 61 61 Increas e in form al care 65 6 6 72 74 76 79 82 8 6 92 96 99 AWG reference s cenario 65 6 6 68 68 69 69 70 7 2 76 79 80
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 1 2 12 13 13 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 1 2 12 13 13 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Increas e in form al care 8 1 2 26 37 47 49 51 5 3 57 59 61 AWG reference s cenario 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 0 10 11 11
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 57 5 8 62 64 66 68 71 7 5 80 83 85 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 57 5 8 62 64 66 34 71 7 5 80 83 85 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 57 5 7 57 45 53 51 50 5 0 52 53 52 Increas e in form al care 57 5 5 46 37 29 30 31 3 3 35 36 38 AWG reference s cenario 57 5 7 59 59 59 59 60 6 3 66 68 69
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4.9 4.6 3.5 3 .0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 3 .3 3.5 of which: Transfers 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 Prim ary 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 .8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 .8 0.9 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.7 1.6 1.0 0 .9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 .0 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.3 1.3 1.0 0 .6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0 .8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Tertiary education 1.0 0.9 0.8 0 .7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0 .7 0.7 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 487 468 379 331 3 29 34 3 345 325 297 280 2 80 Prim ary 93 8 5 80 87 95 97 88 7 5 69 72 77 Low s econdary 168 157 100 96 1 05 11 5 117 106 91 84 88 Upper s econdary 107 107 87 57 56 62 68 6 9 61 53 50 Tertiary education 119 118 112 91 73 69 71 7 5 76 71 64 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 1 587 15 82 154 4 1462 1385 1326 1 287 12 64 122 4 1173 1108
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2
of GDP
Lithuania Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 66.5 66.7 67.4 68.4 69.6 71.0 72.3 73.4 74.3 74.9 75.5
fe m ale s 77.6 77.7 78.5 79.3 80.1 81.0 81.8 82.4 82.9 83.4 83.7
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 13.3 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9
fe m ale s 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.5
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) -5.6 -5.6 -6.0 -6.4 -1.2 3.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3
Ne t m igr ation as % of population -0.16 -0.16 -0.18 -0.20 -0.04 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Population (m illion) 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 17.7 17.1 14.9 14.5 15.0 15.1 14.7 13.9 13.4 13.3 13.7
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 41.8 41.9 43.1 43.8 43.2 42.0 40.4 39.4 37.9 36.0 34.6
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 67.3 67.6 69.0 68.9 67.5 65.7 63.9 63.1 62.2 61.4 59.6
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 15.0 15.2 16.1 16.7 17.5 19.2 21.4 23.0 24.4 25.3 26.7
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.8 3.0 3.8 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.5 6.1 7.2 8.6 9.2
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 6.3 6.7 6.1 4.2 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.4 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -1.3 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 6.1 6.3 5.1 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 3.0 3.2 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 6.8 7.2 6.7 4.8 3.4 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.9 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 18 19 26 33 40 45 50 53 57 60 62 GDP pe r w ork e r 8.8 9.4 13.2 17.3 21.0 24.1 27.0 29.6 32.1 34.5 36.3 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -1.2 Labour force (thous ands ) 1638 1652 1705 1721 1695 1626 1554 1499 1454 1401 1324 Participation rate (15-64) 70.6 71.2 73.8 76.7 78.9 79.0 78.6 78.1 78.0 77.6 77.1 young (15-24) 30.3 30.2 33.0 35.0 33.6 31.4 30.9 31.3 32.3 33.0 32.7 prim e -age (25-54) 89.8 90.7 92.3 92.8 93.3 93.8 94.1 94.0 93.8 93.5 93.4 olde r (55-64) 52.3 53.3 57.5 62.7 68.3 67.9 68.9 68.6 70.6 70.3 68.4 olde s t (65-71) 7.5 7.7 9.2 9.5 10.3 11.4 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.9 11.4 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 62.2 63.3 67.3 71.3 73.4 73.4 73.1 72.6 72.6 72.2 71.7 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 57.3 58.3 62.3 66.3 67.5 66.8 65.4 65.2 65.1 65.0 63.7 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.7 1.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -1.3 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 11.9 11.2 8.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 11.2 11.4 12.0 14.4 17.6 18.1 18.1 17.9 19.6 22.2 22.7 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 22.3 22.5 23.4 24.2 26.0 29.2 33.4 36.5 39.3 41.2 44.9 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 48.6 47.8 44.9 45.2 48.2 52.2 56.5 58.6 60.7 62.9 67.8 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 138.9 133.7 115.3 103.6 101.9 107.3 114.0 118.4 121.4 125.7 134.1 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 34.8 34.5 33.5 32.8 34.0 37.9 43.7 48.3 52.1 55.1 60.2 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 34.4 34.1 33.1 32.4 33.5 37.2 42.8 47.3 51.1 54.0 58.7
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Lithuania EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.2 Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.4 Social security pensions, net 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 Total pension expenditure, net 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.4 Social security pensions, contributions 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 Total pension contributions 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.3 8.6 14.0 20.7 27.9 35.0 41.5 47.2 52.7
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 1248 1260 1292 1295 1314 1335 1357 1376 1388 1398 1402 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 12.6 13.4 16.8 20.9 25.2 29.7 34.3 38.3 42.2 46.2 50.4 Social sec. benefit ratio 7.7 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.5 Total pension benefit ratio : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 1350 1371 1442 1464 1416 1339 1284 1246 1216 1171 1112 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 108 109 112 113 108 100 95 91 88 84 79
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.5 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.5 11.3 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.3 8.7 14.2 21.1 28.5 35.7 42.5 48.5 54.2
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.3 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.3 8.6 14.0 20.8 28.1 35.1 41.6 47.5 53.0
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.6 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.3 8.6 14.0 20.8 28.0 35.0 41.5 47.4 53.0
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.4 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.3 8.6 14.0 20.8 28.1 35.1 41.6 47.4 52.9
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.7 10.2 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.3 8.6 14.0 20.7 27.9 34.9 41.4 47.1 52.5
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.0 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.2 8.3 13.2 19.2 25.4 31.3 36.6 41.3 45.6
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.1 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.9 All pensions, assets 0.3 0.7 4.4 9.0 14.9 22.4 30.8 39.2 47.1 54.3 61.1
: = data not provided
Lithuania OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 3 .7 3.7 3 .8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4 .3 4.4 Cons tant health s cenario 3 .7 3.7 3 .8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4 .0 4.0 Death-related cos ts s cenario 3 .7 3.7 3 .8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4 .1 4.1 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 3 .7 3.7 4 .0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4 .8 4.8 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 3 .7 3.7 3 .5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4 .2 4.4 AWG reference s cenario 3 .7 3.7 4 .0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4 .6 4.6
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0 .5 0.5 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0 .9 1.0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 .5 0.6 0 .6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0 .9 1.0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 .5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0 .7 0.8 Increas e in form al care 0 .5 0.6 0 .7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1 .4 1.5 AWG reference s cenario 0 .5 0.5 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0 .8 0.9
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 103 10 5 1 15 121 1 25 131 14 1 154 16 7 178 184 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 103 10 5 1 15 121 1 25 6 5 14 1 154 16 7 178 184 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 103 10 3 1 05 85 1 00 9 8 10 0 103 10 9 114 114 Increas e in form al care 103 10 5 1 15 121 1 25 131 14 1 154 16 7 178 184 AWG reference s cenario 103 10 4 1 10 112 1 12 115 12 0 128 13 8 146 149
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 29 30 33 35 36 3 8 41 4 4 49 52 54 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 29 30 33 35 36 3 8 41 4 4 49 52 54 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 29 29 30 30 29 2 9 29 3 0 33 34 35 Increas e in form al care 29 33 55 72 86 9 0 97 106 11 5 122 127 AWG reference s cenario 29 29 32 32 33 3 3 35 3 7 41 43 44
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 74 76 82 86 89 9 3 10 1 109 11 9 125 129 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 74 76 82 86 89 4 5 10 1 109 11 9 125 129 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 74 74 75 60 71 6 9 70 7 3 77 80 80 Increas e in form al care 74 72 60 49 39 4 1 44 4 8 52 55 57 AWG reference s cenario 74 75 79 79 80 8 1 86 9 1 98 102 105
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5 .0 4.9 4 .2 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3 .3 3.3 of which: Transfers 0 .4 0.4 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 Prim ary 0 .9 0.9 0 .7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 .7 0.7 of which: Transfers 0 .1 0.1 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Low s econdary 1 .8 1.8 1 .3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1 .1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0 .1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Upper s econdary 0 .7 0.7 0 .6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.4 of which: Transfers 0 .0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Tertiary education 1 .5 1.5 1 .5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1 .1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0 .2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 792 77 7 6 78 581 5 28 518 51 9 508 48 2 455 440 Prim ary 170 16 1 1 34 127 1 31 134 13 0 119 10 9 107 108 Low s econdary 330 32 0 2 49 205 1 92 198 20 3 198 18 3 169 164 Upper s econdary 121 12 1 1 14 86 70 6 9 71 7 3 71 65 61 Tertiary education 172 17 6 1 82 163 1 36 117 11 5 117 11 9 115 107 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 231 9 2 320 230 8 2 243 2148 20 59 1976 19 20 1 863 180 5 1 717
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0 .1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1
of GDP
Luxembourg Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 75.0 75.2 76.4 77.5 78.4 79.3 79.9 80.5 81.0 81.4 81.8
fe m ale s 81.4 81.5 82.4 83.2 83.9 84.6 85.1 85.6 86.0 86.4 86.7
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 15.7 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.9
fe m ale s 19.6 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.4
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.63 0.64 0.59 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.43
Population (m illion) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 18.8 18.7 17.9 17.2 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.0 16.7 16.6
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 45.5 45.3 44.2 42.8 41.3 39.8 38.9 38.6 38.5 38.4 38.2
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 67.1 67.1 67.5 67.4 66.6 64.9 62.8 61.2 60.7 61.0 61.3
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 14.1 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.5 18.0 19.8 21.5 22.3 22.3 22.1
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.7 7.6 8.3
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 2.9 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 1.1 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 26 27 32 38 44 51 58 68 78 91 105 GDP pe r w ork e r 39.3 40.4 47.0 53.0 58.2 64.2 71.1 79.4 89.1 100.3 113.2 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 Labour force (thous ands ) 199 202 217 228 236 239 242 247 254 262 269 Participation rate (15-64) 65.5 66.0 67.2 67.8 67.9 67.8 67.9 68.4 68.6 68.5 68.3 young (15-24) 28.2 27.6 28.0 28.9 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.1 prim e -age (25-54) 82.4 83.2 86.0 87.2 87.7 88.1 88.3 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.1 olde r (55-64) 31.7 32.9 35.7 39.5 41.1 40.5 39.7 40.4 41.6 42.1 42.2 olde s t (65-71) 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 63.0 63.3 64.4 64.9 65.1 64.9 65.0 65.5 65.7 65.6 65.4 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 58.4 58.7 59.6 59.8 59.3 58.6 58.0 58.0 58.7 59.4 59.3 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 7.3 7.6 8.8 10.5 11.9 12.5 11.9 11.0 10.8 11.1 11.6 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.8 24.7 27.7 31.6 35.1 36.7 36.6 36.1 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 49.0 49.0 48.1 48.3 50.2 54.1 59.1 63.3 64.7 64.0 63.3 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 136.5 135.2 130.0 128.4 130.9 137.3 144.8 149.4 150.5 149.8 149.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 32.9 33.0 33.1 34.7 37.5 42.1 47.9 53.0 55.3 55.2 54.7 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 32.8 32.9 33.0 34.5 37.3 41.8 47.6 52.6 54.9 54.9 54.4
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Luxembourg EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 17.4 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 6.1 6.1 6.1 7.0 8.1 9.8 11.3 12.7 13.4 14.0 13.9 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.4 6.4 8.1 9.7 11.1 11.8 12.6 12.5 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 17.4 Social security pensions, net 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.8 10.8 12.4 13.6 14.9 15.5 16.1 15.9 Total pension expenditure, net 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.8 10.8 12.4 13.6 14.9 15.5 16.1 15.9 Social security pensions, contributions 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Total pension contributions 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Social security pensions, assets 23.6 24.8 31.7 37.4 39.2 32.9 17.8 : : : : All pensions, assets 23.6 24.8 31.7 37.4 39.2 32.9 17.8 : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 90 90 90 90 91 91 91 91 91 91 92 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 90 90 90 90 91 91 91 91 91 91 92 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 128 130 142 158 178 204 235 265 293 315 335 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 128 130 142 158 178 204 235 265 293 315 335 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 88 90 96 104 116 132 156 187 216 237 253 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 31.1 30.9 32.7 34.1 34.8 35.2 33.5 29.6 26.2 24.8 24.4 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 20.1 20.6 22.4 26.2 29.4 33.9 37.2 41.8 45.5 50.9 54.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 20.1 20.6 22.4 26.2 29.4 33.9 37.2 41.8 45.5 50.9 54.8 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 85.3 86.5 95.6 106.4 117.5 128.6 140.0 152.2 165.5 179.9 195.6 Social sec. benefit ratio 23.5 23.8 23.4 24.7 25.0 26.4 26.6 27.5 27.5 28.3 28.0 Total pension benefit ratio 23.5 23.8 23.4 24.7 25.0 26.4 26.6 27.5 27.5 28.3 28.0 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 307 314 344 364 378 398 421 448 477 508 541 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 8.3 8.4 9.4 10.6 11.8 12.8 13.9 15.0 16.4 17.9 19.5 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 240 242 242 230 212 195 179 169 163 161 162
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Old-age and early pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.8 11.8 13.6 14.9 16.3 16.9 17.6 17.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.1 6.1 6.1 7.0 8.0 9.8 11.2 12.7 13.3 14.0 13.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.8 11.8 13.6 14.9 16.3 16.9 17.6 17.3 All pensions, assets 23.6 24.8 31.6 37.2 38.9 32.4 17.4 : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.8 15.1 16.5 17.1 17.7 17.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.1 6.1 6.1 7.0 8.1 9.9 11.4 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.8 15.1 16.5 17.1 17.7 17.5 All pensions, assets 23.6 24.8 31.7 37.6 39.6 33.4 18.3 : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Old-age and early pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Old-age and early pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 17.4
Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.1 6.1 6.1 7.0 8.1 9.8 11.3 12.7 13.4 14.0 13.9
Total pension expenditure, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 17.4 All pensions, assets 23.6 24.6 30.2 34.4 34.5 26.6 10.5 : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 17.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.1 6.1 6.1 7.0 8.1 9.8 11.3 12.7 13.4 14.0 13.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.0 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 17.4 All pensions, assets 23.6 25.1 33.2 40.7 44.6 40.5 27.2 4.9 : : :
: = data not provided
Luxembourg OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.2 5 .4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6 .1 6.2 Cons tant health s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.1 5 .2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5 .6 5.6 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.2 5 .3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 5 .9 6.0 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.1 5.1 5.4 5 .6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6 .6 6.7 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.1 5.0 4.9 5 .0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5 .1 4.9 AWG reference s cenario 5.1 5.1 5.3 5 .4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6 .3 6.3
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.9 0.9 1.0 1 .0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1 .6 1.7 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.9 0.9 1.0 1 .1 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.7 2 .0 2.1 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1 .2 1.3 Increas e in form al care 0.9 0.9 1.1 1 .2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2 .0 2.1 AWG reference s cenario 0.9 0.9 1.0 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1 .4 1.5
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 13 1 3 15 17 18 20 24 2 7 31 34 35 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 13 1 3 15 17 18 11 24 2 7 31 34 35 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 13 1 3 14 12 15 15 17 1 9 20 22 23 Increas e in form al care 13 1 3 15 17 18 20 24 2 7 31 34 35 AWG reference s cenario 13 1 3 14 15 17 18 20 2 3 26 28 29
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 1 6 18 20 22 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 1 6 18 20 22 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 1 1 13 14 15 Increas e in form al care 7 8 10 13 15 17 19 2 2 25 28 29 AWG reference s cenario 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 1 4 15 17 18
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 12 13 14 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 6 6 6 7 8 4 10 1 1 12 13 14 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 Increas e in form al care 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 AWG reference s cenario 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 3.3 3.2 3.1 2 .9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2 .5 2.4 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.0 Prim ary 1.4 1.4 1.3 1 .2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1 .0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Low s econdary 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 .7 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 .0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0 .8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Tertiary education 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 69 7 0 73 74 73 76 80 8 4 87 88 89 Prim ary 34 3 5 35 34 35 37 39 4 1 41 42 42 Low s econdary 17 1 7 18 18 18 18 19 2 0 21 22 22 Upper s econdary 18 1 8 20 21 21 21 22 2 3 24 25 25 Tertiary education 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 303 306 322 336 3 47 35 3 357 361 369 382 3 94
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2
of GDP
Hungary Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De m ogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Life e xpe ctancy at birth m ale s 68.5 68.8 70.1 71.5 72.8 74.1 75.2 76.2 77.0 77.6 78.1 fe m ale s 76.8 77.0 78.0 78.9 79.8 80.7 81.5 82.1 82.6 83.1 83.4 Life e xpe ctancy at 65 m ale s 13.1 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.6 fe m ale s 16.7 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.1 Ne t m igration (thous and) 14.8 14.7 13.3 7.1 13.8 20.4 21.2 21.1 20.8 20.4 20.1 Ne t m igration as % of population 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.07 0.14 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.22 Population (m illion) 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 8.9 Population age d 0-14 as % of total 15.9 15.7 14.6 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.8 Pr im e age population (25-54) as % of total 43.5 43.6 42.7 42.1 42.6 41.6 39.7 37.1 36.1 35.4 34.9 Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 68.6 68.7 68.6 67.5 65.2 63.7 63.6 62.9 61.6 59.2 58.1 Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 15.5 15.6 16.7 18.0 20.3 22.0 22.3 23.2 24.8 27.2 28.1 V e r y e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.6 8.3 8.1 8.5
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.5
Ma croe conom ic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (gr ow th rate ) 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 Labour input (gr ow th rate ) 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 Labour productivity (gr ow th rate ) 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (grow th r ate ) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (gr ow th r ate ) 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 80 83 99 115 131 148 165 178 185 194 205 GDP pe r w ork e r 10.9 11.3 13.7 16.1 18.6 21.2 23.9 26.0 27.6 29.3 31.5 Re al inte r e s t rate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssumptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 Labour force (thous ands ) 4245 4276 4373 4350 4269 4188 4089 3924 3723 3554 3440 Participation rate (15-64) 61.1 61.6 63.8 65.5 67.5 68.5 67.8 66.6 65.6 66.2 66.4 young (15-24) 31.1 31.0 31.7 33.3 31.9 31.1 31.4 31.4 31.5 31.9 31.7 prim e -age (25-54) 78.4 78.8 80.7 82.2 82.7 82.9 82.8 82.5 82.5 82.4 82.5 olde r (55-64) 31.3 32.8 40.2 41.4 44.6 50.4 51.7 52.0 48.6 49.7 50.1 olde s t (65-71) 2.5 3.0 5.9 7.8 8.2 8.0 8.8 9.8 9.8 9.4 8.9 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 57.7 58.4 60.8 62.4 64.3 65.3 64.6 63.5 62.4 63.1 63.2 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 53.0 53.6 55.7 56.9 57.5 58.2 58.8 57.5 55.6 54.9 55.6 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w ork e rs 8.7 9.3 12.4 13.2 12.6 13.8 16.2 19.1 18.2 17.2 17.2 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 22.6 22.8 24.3 26.7 31.2 34.5 35.1 36.9 40.3 45.9 48.3 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 45.7 45.5 45.7 48.1 53.3 56.9 57.4 59.0 62.4 69.0 72.0 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy r atio 152.3 149.3 139.7 137.4 138.4 140.4 143.5 150.5 160.1 168.1 172.1 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 38.7 38.5 39.1 41.4 46.7 51.1 52.8 56.3 62.2 70.2 74.2 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 38.5 38.3 38.7 40.8 45.9 50.2 52.0 55.2 60.7 68.4 72.5
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo rk e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Hungary EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.6 16.0 16.9 17.1 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 8.3 8.6 9.1 10.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 13.2 14.7 15.6 15.8 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 8.3 8.6 9.1 10.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 13.2 14.7 15.6 15.8 Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.6 13.3 13.9 15.4 17.6 19.3 20.3 Social security pensions, net 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.2 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.6 13.8 14.5 14.6 Total pension expenditure, net 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.2 11.8 12.0 12.3 13.4 15.1 16.5 17.3 Social security pensions, contributions 7.7 7.6 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 Total pension contributions 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets 4.0 5.3 13.2 21.9 31.5 41.1 50.0 59.2 67.7 72.8 73.7
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 100 100 100 97 93 90 88 87 86 85 85 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 100 100 100 97 93 90 88 87 86 85 85 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 3069 3080 3210 3262 3343 3353 3353 3417 3529 3541 3467 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 3069 3080 3210 3262 3343 3353 3353 3417 3529 3541 3467 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 1557 1580 1765 2008 2252 2386 2364 2378 2450 2614 2614 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 49.3 48.7 45.0 38.4 32.7 28.9 29.5 30.4 30.6 26.2 24.6 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.7 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.9 5.8 6.6 7.6 8.4 9.3 10.1 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.7 2.9 3.4 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.9 8.0 9.3 10.6 12.0 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 20.3 21.0 23.9 27.8 32.2 37.1 42.4 47.5 52.3 57.3 62.5 Social sec. benefit ratio 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.2 Total pension benefit ratio 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.7 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 4026 4070 4206 4201 4137 4057 3956 3810 3629 3475 3351 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.8 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 131 132 131 129 124 121 118 111 103 98 97
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.4 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.3 15.7 16.6 16.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.8 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.9 14.4 15.3 15.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.5 12.5 13.1 13.7 15.2 17.4 19.0 20.0 All pensions, assets 4.0 5.3 13.2 21.9 31.4 40.9 49.7 58.8 67.2 72.1 72.7
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.7 16.5 16.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.9 11.1 11.6 11.9 12.9 14.3 15.2 15.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.5 13.1 13.7 15.1 17.2 18.7 19.6 All pensions, assets 4.0 5.3 13.2 21.8 31.0 40.2 48.6 57.3 65.2 69.9 70.5
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.6 13.2 13.6 14.7 16.2 17.1 17.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.3 8.7 9.0 10.0 11.3 11.9 12.3 13.3 14.9 15.8 16.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.7 17.9 19.6 20.7 All pensions, assets 4.0 5.3 13.2 22.1 31.9 41.8 51.1 60.8 69.7 75.1 76.0
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 12.2 12.7 13.0 14.0 15.4 16.2 16.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.7 11.0 11.5 11.8 12.7 14.1 15.0 15.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.9 17.0 18.6 19.5 All pensions, assets 4.0 5.3 13.2 21.9 31.5 41.0 49.9 59.1 67.6 72.8 73.7
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.7 15.0 15.8 16.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.5 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.3 13.7 14.6 14.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 13.2 14.5 16.6 18.1 19.0 All pensions, assets 4.0 5.3 13.2 21.8 31.2 40.6 49.2 58.2 66.6 71.9 73.0
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.6 16.0 16.9 17.1
Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.3 8.6 9.1 10.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 13.2 14.7 15.6 15.8
Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.6 13.2 13.8 15.2 17.2 18.7 19.4 All pensions, assets 4.0 5.3 12.7 20.7 29.2 37.4 44.8 52.5 59.5 63.7 64.6
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.6 16.0 16.9 17.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.3 8.6 9.1 10.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 13.2 14.7 15.6 15.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.7 13.3 14.1 15.7 18.1 20.1 21.3 All pensions, assets 4.0 5.4 13.7 23.3 34.1 45.3 55.9 67.2 77.6 83.8 84.4
: = data not provided
Hungary OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.5 5.5 5.7 5 .8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6 .5 6.5 Cons tant health s cenario 5.5 5.5 5.5 5 .6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5 .7 5.8 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.5 5.5 5.6 5 .6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5 .9 6.0 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.5 5.5 5.8 6 .0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 6 .9 6.9 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.5 5.5 5.4 5 .5 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.6 6 .9 7.1 AWG reference s cenario 5.5 5.5 5.7 5 .9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6 .5 6.5
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 263 267 287 306 3 35 36 7 392 419 437 451 4 67 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 263 267 287 306 3 35 17 8 392 419 437 451 4 67 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 263 263 263 215 2 64 27 3 278 289 291 285 2 86 Increas e in form al care 263 267 287 306 3 35 36 7 392 419 437 451 4 67 AWG reference s cenario 263 265 275 283 3 00 32 0 335 354 364 368 3 76
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Increas e in form al care 0 1 3 76 132 1 87 20 5 219 235 245 253 2 61 AWG reference s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 263 267 287 306 3 35 36 7 392 419 437 451 4 67 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 263 267 287 306 3 35 17 8 392 419 437 451 4 67 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 263 263 263 215 2 64 27 3 278 289 291 285 2 86 Increas e in form al care 263 254 211 174 1 47 16 1 172 185 192 199 2 06 AWG reference s cenario 263 265 275 283 3 00 32 0 335 354 364 368 3 76
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4.5 4.4 3.9 3 .7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3 .8 3.8 of which: Transfers 0.5 0.5 0.4 0 .4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.4 Prim ary 0.9 0.9 0.8 0 .8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Low s econdary 1.0 0.9 0.8 0 .7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Upper s econdary 1.3 1.3 1.2 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1 .1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Tertiary education 1.4 1.3 1.2 1 .1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1 .1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1 929 18 88 171 0 1576 1505 1475 1 457 14 29 139 0 1351 1324 Prim ary 448 432 391 390 3 82 37 5 372 356 342 338 3 36 Low s econdary 500 492 418 390 3 90 38 3 380 374 357 345 3 42 Upper s econdary 595 586 552 471 4 47 44 5 438 435 427 410 3 98 Tertiary education 385 379 349 324 2 86 27 1 267 264 263 259 2 49 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 6 944 69 36 685 2 6642 6325 6111 6 028 58 90 567 9 5368 5182
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2
of GDP
Malta Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility rate 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Life e xpe ctancy at birth m ale s 76.2 76.5 77.4 78.3 79.0 79.6 80.1 80.6 81.0 81.4 81.8 fe m ale s 80.7 80.9 81.7 82.3 82.9 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.4 84.8 85.0 Life e xpe ctancy at 65 m ale s 15.2 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.2 fe m ale s 18.3 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.6 Ne t m igration (thous and) 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Ne t m igration as % of population 0.64 0.64 0.58 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Population (m illion) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Population age d 0-14 as % of total 18.2 17.8 16.2 15.6 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.0 14.6 14.4 14.5 Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 42.2 42.1 41.8 41.1 40.7 40.9 40.0 38.9 37.8 37.1 36.5 Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 68.7 69.0 69.6 67.1 64.8 63.1 62.2 62.7 62.9 62.0 60.8 Elde r ly population age d 65+ as % of total 13.0 13.2 14.2 17.3 19.4 21.3 22.4 22.3 22.5 23.6 24.7 V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.6 6.3 7.2 7.9 8.0 7.5
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th rate ) 1.9 2.0 2.5 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 Labour input (gr ow th rate ) 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Labour pr oductivity (grow th rate ) 1.4 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (grow th rate ) 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productiv ity grow th) 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (gr ow th rate ) 1.2 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 GDP pe r w or k e r 13.7 13.8 14.8 16.4 18.1 20.2 22.9 25.4 27.6 29.7 31.8 Re al inte r e s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssumptions
Population grow th (w or k ing age :15-64) 1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Labour force (thous ands ) 163 167 182 190 195 198 203 205 205 205 204 Par ticipation rate (15-64) 59.5 60.1 61.8 64.6 66.1 67.1 68.0 67.1 66.0 65.8 66.0 young (15-24) 57.9 58.0 59.5 60.4 59.6 58.0 59.0 58.4 58.8 59.4 59.4 prim e -age (25-54) 67.2 68.6 73.4 77.0 79.1 79.7 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.6 79.9 olde r (55-64) 33.9 33.8 30.1 31.4 31.4 31.1 35.1 35.9 34.6 34.2 33.7 olde s t (65-71) 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 54.5 55.0 56.7 60.1 61.5 62.4 63.2 62.4 61.4 61.2 61.3 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 50.5 50.9 52.4 53.5 54.6 55.3 56.2 56.4 55.2 54.0 53.7 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 8.4 8.5 8.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e r s 9.9 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.6 8.5 9.3 10.9 11.5 11.6 11.4 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 19.0 19.2 20.4 25.7 30.0 33.8 36.0 35.5 35.9 38.0 40.6 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 45.5 45.0 43.6 48.9 54.2 58.4 60.7 59.4 59.1 61.4 64.6 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 166.9 163.6 153.4 147.7 150.8 153.7 154.1 155.5 159.1 163.5 168.3 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-64) 34.3 34.5 35.6 42.3 48.2 53.5 56.4 56.5 57.9 61.5 65.6 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-71) 34.1 34.3 35.4 42.0 48.0 53.2 56.1 56.2 57.6 61.2 65.2
LEGENDA :
S h a re o f o ld e r wo rk e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Malta EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.0 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.5 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.0 Social security pensions, net : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, contributions 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.3 Total pension contributions 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.3 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 60 62 74 86 97 107 113 118 122 126 130 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 60 62 74 86 97 107 113 118 122 126 130 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 42 43 48 61 72 82 90 92 94 98 102 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 29.9 29.9 34.4 29.1 26.3 23.3 20.7 21.8 23.1 22.4 21.3 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 29.3 29.7 30.0 32.3 36.2 40.7 46.3 51.7 56.8 62.2 67.8 Social sec. benefit ratio 18.4 18.2 19.9 20.1 19.0 17.2 15.2 13.5 12.4 11.4 10.3 Total pension benefit ratio 18.4 18.2 19.9 20.1 19.0 17.2 15.2 13.5 12.4 11.4 10.3 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 159 162 171 177 181 185 191 196 199 202 205 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 264 262 233 206 186 173 168 166 163 160 158
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.5 7.6 9.0 10.1 10.6 10.5 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.1 7.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.9 4.0 5.3 6.5 7.3 7.6 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.5 7.6 9.0 10.1 10.6 10.5 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.1 7.6 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.5 7.6 8.8 9.7 10.1 9.7 8.8 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 6.9 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.5 7.6 8.8 9.7 10.1 9.7 8.8 7.9 7.4 6.9 6.4 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.4 10.3 9.6 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.4 7.2 7.6 7.3 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.4 10.3 9.6 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.7 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.4 7.5 8.7 9.7 10.1 9.9 9.1 8.3 7.8 7.5 7.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.4 7.5 8.7 9.7 10.1 9.9 9.1 8.3 7.8 7.5 7.0 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.7 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.7 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.1 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.0
Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5
Total pension expenditure, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.0 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 3.9 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.4 7.5 8.8 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.1 8.4 7.9 7.5 7.0 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
M alta OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5 .1 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 Cons tant health s cenario 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4 .8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 Death-related cos ts s cenario 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4 .8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.9 5 .2 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4 .9 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 AWG reference s cenario 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.8 5 .0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 .0 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0 .9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 Increas e in form al care 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 AWG reference s cenario 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0 .9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 13 13 15 19 22 26 3 1 3 3 35 36 37 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 13 13 15 19 22 13 3 1 3 3 35 36 37 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 13 13 14 13 18 19 2 2 2 4 24 24 23 Increas e in form al care 13 13 15 19 22 26 3 1 3 3 35 36 37 AWG reference s cenario 13 13 15 17 20 23 2 6 2 9 30 30 30
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 11 11 13 16 19 22 2 7 3 0 31 32 32 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 11 11 13 16 19 22 2 7 3 0 31 32 32 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 11 11 12 14 15 17 2 0 2 1 22 22 21 Increas e in form al care 11 12 14 17 20 24 2 9 3 2 33 34 35 AWG reference s cenario 11 11 13 15 17 19 2 3 2 6 27 27 27
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 2 2 2 3 3 1 4 4 4 4 4 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 Increas e in form al care 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 AWG reference s cenario 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.3 3 .2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 of which: Transfers 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0 .3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Prim ary 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0 .9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1 .2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0 .4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Tertiary education 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0 .8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 77 76 69 67 68 70 7 1 7 2 72 71 71 Prim ary 31 30 27 29 29 30 3 1 3 0 30 30 30 Low s econdary 29 29 25 22 25 25 2 6 2 6 26 25 25 Upper s econdary 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 Tertiary education 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 275 27 9 2 94 2 95 294 295 298 306 311 311 30 9
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
of GDP
Netherlands Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 76.2 76.4 77.0 77.6 78.3 78.8 79.4 79.8 80.3 80.7 81.1
fe m ale s 80.8 80.9 81.4 82.0 82.5 83.0 83.5 83.9 84.4 84.8 85.2
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 15.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.9
fe m ale s 19.0 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 21.0 24.1 32.6 33.3 32.5 31.9 31.6 31.6 31.5 31.3 31.1
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
Population (m illion) 16.3 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.6
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 18.5 18.5 17.8 17.1 16.3 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.2 15.9 15.6
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 44.1 43.7 42.0 40.4 38.7 37.1 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.7 36.6
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 67.6 67.5 67.3 65.8 64.8 63.2 61.1 59.4 58.7 59.3 60.0
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 13.8 14.0 14.9 17.1 18.9 20.8 22.7 24.4 25.1 24.8 24.4
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.8 6.0 6.8 7.6 8.5 9.2
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 10.6 10.7 11.3 12.2 13.0 14.1 15.1 15.7 15.8 15.5 15.2
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 1.3 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 465 472 517 568 620 668 713 765 833 912 996 GDP pe r w ork e r 21.9 22.1 23.7 25.6 27.5 29.2 30.9 32.9 35.8 39.4 43.2 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 Labour force (thous ands ) 8444 8504 8727 8808 8832 8728 8548 8424 8424 8481 8509 Participation rate (15-64) 76.8 77.1 77.8 78.9 79.1 79.1 79.3 79.9 80.8 80.7 80.5 young (15-24) 72.9 73.0 73.4 73.5 73.5 74.1 73.8 73.5 73.4 73.5 73.7 prim e -age (25-54) 85.8 86.3 88.0 89.1 89.8 90.2 90.4 90.4 90.5 90.5 90.5 olde r (55-64) 46.8 47.5 49.0 52.6 54.1 54.3 53.8 53.3 55.4 56.0 56.0 olde s t (65-71) 8.5 9.1 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.1 9.7 9.9 10.1 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 74.0 74.4 75.3 76.4 76.5 76.5 76.7 77.4 78.2 78.1 77.9 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 69.0 69.4 69.7 69.3 69.2 68.8 68.2 68.4 69.4 70.6 70.6 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 0.9 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 10.4 10.8 12.1 13.2 14.6 15.4 14.9 13.3 12.7 13.1 13.7 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 20.5 20.7 22.2 26.0 29.2 32.8 37.2 41.1 42.8 41.8 40.6 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 47.9 48.1 48.7 52.0 54.3 58.2 63.7 68.5 70.3 68.6 66.7 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 99.8 99.0 97.4 99.0 101.5 106.7 113.3 117.8 118.0 115.8 114.1 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 26.7 26.8 28.3 32.5 36.5 41.2 46.6 51.1 53.0 51.9 50.6 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 26.5 26.6 27.9 32.0 35.9 40.5 45.7 50.1 52.0 51.1 49.9
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Netherlands EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.7 11.4 11.7 11.4 11.2 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.4 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Occupational pensions, gross 4.6 4.8 4.7 5.2 5.8 6.7 7.7 8.6 9.0 8.8 8.7 Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.3 13.6 14.8 16.4 18.4 20.0 20.6 20.3 20.0 Social security pensions, net 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.4 8.1 8.9 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.4 Total pension expenditure, net 9.6 9.4 9.6 10.6 11.5 12.8 14.4 15.6 16.1 15.8 15.5 Social security pensions, contributions 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 Total pension contributions 13.0 12.9 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.0 12.9 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 160.6 177.5 195.6 214.5 230.1 239.2 241.0 241.4 243.7
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 81 81 81 82 83 83 83 84 84 84 84 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 77 77 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 3317 3310 3437 3818 4156 4514 4879 5168 5291 5213 5120 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 3540 3548 3765 4139 4487 4872 5224 5468 5556 5477 5399 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 10.9 10.6 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.6 16.9 18.3 20.0 21.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 16.3 16.2 16.9 18.6 20.4 22.5 25.1 28.0 30.9 33.8 36.8 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 55.7 56.1 61.3 66.7 72.6 79.1 86.2 93.9 102.2 111.2 121.0 Social sec. benefit ratio 19.5 18.8 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.1 Total pension benefit ratio 29.2 28.9 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.2 29.9 30.3 30.4 30.4 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 12064 12105 12484 12844 13156 13454 13612 13664 13660 13641 13615 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 364 366 363 336 317 298 279 264 258 262 266
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.8 11.7 12.0 11.9 11.7 Old-age and early pensions, gross 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.1 10.0 9.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.3 13.5 14.8 16.5 18.5 20.3 21.1 20.9 20.7 All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 161.0 178.3 197.0 217.5 235.9 247.4 251.4 253.7 257.4
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.7 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.7 11.4 11.6 11.4 11.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.3 13.6 14.7 16.3 18.2 19.8 20.4 20.0 19.6 All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 160.5 176.1 192.2 210.1 225.4 234.4 236.3 236.9 239.3
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.3 8.9 9.7 10.7 11.4 11.7 11.5 11.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.4 9.8 9.6 9.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.3 13.6 14.8 16.5 18.6 20.2 20.9 20.6 20.3 All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 160.7 178.9 198.6 218.0 234.1 243.5 245.3 245.6 247.8
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.3 8.9 9.7 10.6 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.5 8.5 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.3 13.5 14.7 16.3 18.3 19.9 20.5 20.2 19.9 All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 160.1 176.3 194.4 213.6 229.7 239.3 241.5 242.2 244.7
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.3 8.9 9.6 10.6 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.5 8.5 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.3 13.5 14.7 16.3 18.3 20.0 20.6 20.3 19.9 All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 160.3 176.9 194.6 213.4 229.7 239.5 241.7 242.1 244.3
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.7 11.4 11.7 11.4 11.2
Old-age and early pensions, gross 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.4
Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.2 13.2 14.3 15.8 17.8 19.4 20.1 19.9 19.7 All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 166.9 189.2 211.4 235.2 256.1 270.1 275.9 279.5 284.3
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.7 7.4 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.7 10.7 11.4 11.7 11.4 11.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.4 12.2 12.5 13.9 15.2 16.9 18.9 20.5 21.1 20.6 20.2 All pensions, assets 135.5 140.4 152.1 165.6 180.8 196.1 208.1 213.9 212.9 211.0 211.2
: = data not provided
Netherlands OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6 .1 6.1 6 .3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7 .4 7.4 Cons tant health s cenario 6 .1 6.1 6 .2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.9 6 .9 6.9 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6 .1 6.1 6 .2 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7 .1 7.1 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6 .1 6.1 6 .3 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 7 .7 7.7 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6 .1 6.1 6 .2 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.6 7.9 8.0 7 .9 7.9 AWG reference s cenario 6 .1 6.1 6 .3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7 .4 7.4
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0 .5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1 .1 1.2 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 .5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1 .1 1.1 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 .5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0 .9 0.9 Increas e in form al care 0 .5 0.5 0 .7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2 .1 2.3 AWG reference s cenario 0 .5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 .0 1.1
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 362 36 7 3 96 441 4 90 561 65 2 721 77 5 813 833 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 362 36 7 3 96 441 4 90 286 65 2 721 77 5 813 833 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 362 36 2 3 65 316 3 93 423 47 3 502 52 3 539 543 Increas e in form al care 362 36 7 3 96 441 4 90 561 65 2 721 77 5 813 833 AWG reference s cenario 362 36 5 3 80 410 4 42 492 56 3 612 64 9 676 688
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 79 80 87 97 1 10 128 14 9 166 18 0 190 194 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 79 80 87 97 1 10 128 14 9 166 18 0 190 194 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 79 79 80 83 88 9 7 10 9 116 12 1 126 127 Increas e in form al care 79 94 1 68 245 3 23 370 43 1 477 51 3 539 552 AWG reference s cenario 79 79 83 90 99 113 12 9 141 15 1 158 161
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 283 28 7 3 09 344 3 81 432 50 3 555 59 6 623 639 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 283 28 7 3 09 344 3 81 220 50 3 555 59 6 623 639 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 283 28 3 2 85 247 3 05 326 36 4 386 40 2 413 416 Increas e in form al care 283 27 3 2 27 196 1 68 190 22 1 244 26 2 274 281 AWG reference s cenario 283 28 5 2 97 320 3 43 379 43 3 471 49 9 518 527
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4 .8 4.8 4 .7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4 .7 4.6 of which: Transfers 0 .5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 Prim ary 1 .5 1.4 1 .5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1 .4 1.3 of which: Transfers 0 .0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Low s econdary 1 .2 1.2 1 .1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1 .2 1.1 of which: Transfers 0 .0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Upper s econdary 0 .9 0.9 0 .9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0 .9 0.9 of which: Transfers 0 .2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 Tertiary education 1 .3 1.3 1 .2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1 .2 1.3 of which: Transfers 0 .3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 323 2 3 237 330 1 3 298 3226 31 48 3125 31 50 3 179 317 0 3 126 Prim ary 128 2 1 283 133 2 1 276 1207 12 01 1229 12 54 1 258 123 4 1 197 Low s econdary 800 80 8 8 00 841 8 05 761 75 6 772 78 8 791 777 Upper s econdary 629 62 9 6 50 651 6 73 642 61 9 618 62 7 634 634 Tertiary education 522 51 7 5 18 530 5 41 544 52 2 506 50 6 511 517 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 1 0991 110 29 11 214 1115 8 11 167 11037 107 83 1 0538 104 31 1 0509 1057 5
of GDP
174
Austria Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 76.2 76.4 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.1 80.8 81.4 81.9 82.3 82.8
fe m ale s 82.1 82.3 83.2 84.0 84.7 85.4 85.9 86.3 86.7 86.9 87.2
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.2 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4
fe m ale s 19.7 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.6
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 25.0 24.7 23.6 22.8 20.6 19.6 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.27 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.25
Population (m illion) 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 16.3 16.1 14.9 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.1 12.6 12.4 12.4
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 44.0 43.9 43.8 42.7 40.8 38.4 37.1 36.6 35.9 35.4 34.8
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 68.2 67.9 67.4 66.9 66.0 64.1 61.5 59.2 58.2 58.1 57.5
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 15.5 16.0 17.7 18.8 20.0 22.1 25.0 27.7 29.1 29.6 30.1
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.1 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.4 6.6 7.2 7.9 9.1 10.9 12.4
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.9
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 1.2 1.6 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 232 236 265 297 326 348 367 387 413 441 468 GDP pe r w ork e r 23.5 23.9 26.5 29.3 31.8 33.7 35.6 37.6 40.5 43.8 47.2 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 Labour force (thous ands ) 4016 4049 4233 4331 4349 4234 4100 3967 3889 3815 3715 Participation rate (15-64) 72.6 73.3 76.1 77.4 78.1 77.7 78.3 79.1 79.5 79.1 79.1 young (15-24) 56.2 56.6 56.5 57.7 57.3 56.9 56.7 56.7 56.9 57.2 57.2 prim e -age (25-54) 88.1 88.6 90.5 91.5 92.0 92.3 92.5 92.6 92.6 92.6 92.5 olde r (55-64) 32.3 33.5 41.6 47.9 54.4 55.3 56.8 57.3 59.5 58.8 59.2 olde s t (65-71) 4.4 4.4 3.7 4.8 5.0 5.6 5.7 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.3 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 69.6 70.4 73.5 74.8 75.4 75.1 75.7 76.3 76.7 76.4 76.4 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 64.6 65.0 66.4 68.1 68.3 67.0 66.0 65.8 66.9 67.7 67.3 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.1 0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 4.2 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 7.8 7.9 9.2 11.6 15.3 17.3 17.1 15.4 15.9 16.4 17.1 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 22.8 23.6 26.3 28.1 30.3 34.4 40.6 46.8 50.0 50.9 52.4 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 46.7 47.3 48.4 49.4 51.5 55.9 62.6 68.9 71.7 72.2 73.9 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 110.8 109.2 101.9 99.8 100.9 107.7 114.9 121.2 123.8 125.4 127.7 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 32.2 33.0 35.2 36.9 39.4 44.8 52.5 59.9 64.0 65.5 67.4 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 32.1 32.8 35.0 36.6 39.1 44.4 51.8 59.0 63.2 64.8 66.6
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Austria EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.2 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 12.1 12.6 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.3 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.6 10.3 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.3 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.9 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.2 Social security pensions, net 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.3 10.7 10.3 Total pension expenditure, net 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.3 10.7 10.3 Social security pensions, contributions 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.6 Total pension contributions 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.6 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 86 84 84 83 83 83 83 84 84 84 84 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 86 84 84 83 83 83 83 84 84 84 84 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 2337 2392 2449 2525 2611 2777 2912 3021 3023 2971 2892 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 2337 2391 2449 2524 2613 2778 2912 3018 3019 2966 2888 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 1594 1646 1750 1857 1944 2099 2301 2464 2478 2397 2313 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 31.8 31.1 28.5 26.4 25.6 24.4 21.0 18.4 17.9 19.2 19.9 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 13.3 13.0 13.9 14.9 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.8 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 13.3 13.0 13.9 14.9 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.8 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 60.9 61.8 64.9 71.0 77.6 85.0 92.7 101.0 110.0 119.7 130.4 Social sec. benefit ratio 21.8 21.1 21.4 21.0 20.6 19.9 19.0 17.8 16.7 15.8 15.2 Total pension benefit ratio 21.8 21.1 21.4 21.0 20.6 19.9 19.0 17.8 16.7 15.8 15.2 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 3526 3638 3799 3864 3870 3764 3653 3557 3500 3445 3370 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.9 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.7 9.3 10.1 11.0 11.9 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.9 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.7 9.3 10.1 11.0 11.9 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 151 152 155 153 148 136 125 118 116 116 117
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.3 13.8 13.1 12.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 12.2 12.8 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.3 13.8 13.1 12.6 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.6 13.2 13.5 13.5 12.8 12.1 11.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.2 12.3 11.7 11.1 10.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.6 13.2 13.5 13.5 12.8 12.1 11.4 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.5 14.7 14.2 13.6 13.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.0 12.5 12.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.5 14.7 14.2 13.6 13.2 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.7 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.2 12.5 12.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.9 12.4 12.6 12.1 11.5 11.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.7 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.2 12.5 12.0 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.6 13.2 13.6 13.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.4 11.9 11.3 10.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.6 13.2 13.6 13.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 12.1 12.6 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.2 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.2 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 12.1 12.6 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.4 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 12.7 12.2 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
Austria OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.3 5 .3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 6 .9 Cons tant health s cenario 5.3 5 .3 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6 .3 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.3 5 .3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6 .6 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.3 5 .3 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.0 7.1 7 .2 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.3 5 .3 5.3 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.5 7 .6 AWG reference s cenario 5.3 5 .3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.8 6 .8
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.6 0 .6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1 .5 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.6 0 .6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1 .4 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.6 0 .6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1 .5 Increas e in form al care 0.6 0 .6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1 .5 AWG reference s cenario 0.6 0 .6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1 .5
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 197 203 223 238 259 289 32 2 357 3 88 410 419 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 197 203 223 238 259 143 32 2 357 3 88 410 419 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 197 200 204 167 205 216 22 7 238 2 51 261 263 Increas e in form al care 197 203 223 238 259 289 32 2 357 3 88 410 419 AWG reference s cenario 197 201 214 221 232 252 27 5 298 3 19 335 341
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5.1 5 .0 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4 .1 of which: Transfers 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 Prim ary 1.1 1 .1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0 .9 of which: Transfers 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 Low s econdary 1.4 1 .4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 .1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 Upper s econdary 1.3 1 .3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 .0 of which: Transfers 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 Tertiary education 1.4 1 .3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 .1 of which: Transfers 0.3 0 .3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1 428 1414 1341 1270 1226 120 5 1192 11 70 1131 1 089 1057 Prim ary 371 362 330 323 320 322 31 8 304 2 89 279 275 Low s econdary 395 395 360 335 327 325 32 6 320 3 06 292 283 Upper s econdary 426 429 431 394 371 362 35 9 359 3 52 337 323 Tertiary education 236 228 220 218 207 196 18 9 186 1 84 181 176 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 5 531 5525 5562 5594 5569 544 7 5233 50 18 4895 4 822 4698
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.8 0 .7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0 .6
of GDP
Poland Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 70.5 70.7 72.0 73.3 74.6 75.8 76.8 77.6 78.2 78.7 79.1
fe m ale s 78.5 78.7 79.6 80.5 81.3 82.1 82.8 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.4
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 13.7 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.8
fe m ale s 17.4 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.5
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) -27.9 -27.8 -35.4 -51.5 -10.6 29.7 35.9 36.0 35.4 34.5 33.7
Ne t m igr ation as % of population -0.07 -0.07 -0.09 -0.14 -0.03 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Population (m illion) 38.2 38.1 37.8 37.4 37.1 36.8 36.5 36.1 35.4 34.5 33.7
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 17.2 16.7 14.7 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.2 13.4 12.9 12.8 13.0
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 43.7 43.8 44.3 43.7 43.4 42.9 41.3 38.8 36.0 34.3 33.4
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 69.8 70.2 71.8 70.5 67.3 64.3 63.3 63.1 62.4 60.4 57.6
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 13.0 13.1 13.5 15.3 18.2 21.1 22.6 23.4 24.8 26.8 29.4
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.2 4.3 5.4 7.3 8.8 9.0 8.8
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 21.7 21.6 21.7 23.5 25.5 27.2 28.2 29.1 30.4 31.9 33.4
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 3.3 3.6 5.0 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 Labour input (grow th r ate ) -0.9 -0.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 3.4 3.8 5.2 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 195 202 259 318 375 436 490 530 554 570 582 GDP pe r w ork e r 9.0 9.4 12.1 15.0 17.9 20.9 23.7 25.9 27.7 29.1 30.5 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.4 0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 Labour force (thous ands ) 17153 17343 18381 18445 17961 17438 17066 16508 15696 14720 13778 Participation rate (15-64) 64.3 64.8 67.7 69.9 72.0 73.6 73.8 72.5 71.1 70.5 71.0 young (15-24) 37.5 38.6 40.4 41.1 39.9 38.2 37.3 37.8 38.7 39.4 39.2 prim e -age (25-54) 82.1 82.6 85.6 88.0 89.3 89.7 89.8 89.4 89.2 89.3 89.6 olde r (55-64) 29.9 29.9 37.1 40.2 41.0 43.6 49.1 51.4 51.3 49.7 49.3 olde s t (65-71) 7.8 7.5 6.2 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.7 8.4 9.4 9.2 9.2 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 52.1 52.7 57.0 61.0 64.9 68.4 68.6 67.4 66.2 65.6 66.1 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 48.8 49.3 53.6 56.5 58.2 60.7 61.6 61.2 59.5 57.6 56.8 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 19.0 18.7 15.8 12.9 9.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 6.3 6.5 9.9 12.0 11.5 10.9 12.8 15.8 18.5 18.9 17.8 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 18.6 18.7 18.8 21.7 27.1 32.8 35.7 37.1 39.7 44.3 51.0 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 43.3 42.5 39.3 41.9 48.6 55.4 58.0 58.4 60.3 65.4 73.5 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 174.9 170.5 144.4 132.8 129.1 127.1 130.2 134.8 142.3 152.4 162.7 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 34.4 34.4 32.1 34.3 40.2 46.2 50.5 53.6 58.1 65.3 74.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 34.0 34.0 31.9 33.9 39.6 45.5 49.8 52.8 57.1 63.8 72.5
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Poland EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.0 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 10.7 11.1 9.4 8.2 8.4 8.3 7.9 7.4 7.1 6.8 6.6 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 Social security pensions, net 11.8 11.7 9.6 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.8 Total pension expenditure, net 11.8 11.7 9.6 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 Social security pensions, contributions 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 Total pension contributions 9.0 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 Social security pensions, assets 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 All pensions, assets 7.1 8.4 15.9 24.0 33.5 42.5 51.1 60.3 69.9 78.4 85.0
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 7652 7632 7254 7445 7975 8392 8635 8865 9139 9416 9574 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 9943 9761 9123 8966 9280 9564 9771 10033 10353 10638 10769 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 6409 6348 6877 7383 8026 8380 8548 8786 9157 9613 9915 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 35.5 35.0 24.6 17.7 13.5 12.4 12.5 12.4 11.6 9.6 7.9 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 3.5 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 14.2 14.8 16.7 19.8 23.2 26.9 30.8 34.5 38.0 41.6 45.4 Social sec. benefit ratio 25.0 24.6 24.1 21.1 19.7 18.4 16.9 15.4 13.8 12.1 10.7 Total pension benefit ratio 19.2 19.2 19.2 17.5 17.1 16.4 15.3 14.2 13.1 12.0 11.1 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 14433 14605 16156 16988 17287 17227 16815 16237 15443 14486 13565 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.3 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 189 191 223 228 217 205 195 183 169 154 142
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.7 11.1 9.4 8.2 8.4 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 All pensions, assets 7.1 8.4 15.9 24.1 33.5 42.7 51.3 60.7 70.5 79.4 86.5
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.7 11.1 9.4 8.1 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.8 All pensions, assets 7.1 8.4 15.8 23.8 32.7 41.3 49.2 57.7 66.5 74.2 80.4
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.6 8.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.7 11.1 9.4 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.1 6.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 All pensions, assets 7.1 8.4 15.8 24.1 33.7 43.0 51.9 61.5 71.5 80.5 87.6
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.9 Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.7 11.1 9.3 8.1 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 All pensions, assets 7.1 8.5 15.9 24.1 33.5 42.5 51.0 60.1 69.6 77.9 84.5
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.7 11.1 9.3 8.2 8.4 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 All pensions, assets 7.1 8.5 16.1 24.4 33.9 43.1 51.8 61.0 70.4 78.7 85.1
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.0
Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.7 11.1 9.4 8.2 8.4 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.6
Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.3 All pensions, assets 6.9 8.3 15.1 22.5 30.7 38.4 45.4 52.8 60.4 67.1 72.3
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.7 11.1 9.4 8.2 8.4 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 13.9 13.7 11.3 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.6 All pensions, assets 7.2 8.6 16.6 25.8 36.6 47.3 57.8 69.3 81.4 92.3 101.0
: = data not provided
Poland OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5 4 .7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Cons tant health s cenario 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4 .4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 Death-related cos ts s cenario 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 4 .5 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 4 .9 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.0 4 .1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 AWG reference s cenario 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 4 .8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Increas e in form al care 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 AWG reference s cenario 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 885 90 6 9 90 1098 123 7 140 1 15 98 17 80 1 903 1 949 2004 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 885 90 6 9 90 1098 123 7 650 15 98 17 80 1 903 1 949 2004 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 885 89 2 9 06 7 73 978 102 6 11 18 12 19 1 276 1 255 1226 Increas e in form al care 885 90 6 9 90 1098 123 7 140 1 15 98 17 80 1 903 1 949 2004 AWG reference s cenario 885 89 9 9 48 1016 110 8 121 4 13 58 15 00 1 590 1 602 1615
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 148 15 2 1 66 1 88 215 242 275 308 335 345 35 6 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 148 15 2 1 66 1 88 215 242 275 308 335 345 35 6 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 148 15 0 1 53 1 61 171 179 195 214 227 225 22 1 Increas e in form al care 148 19 0 3 84 5 80 787 891 10 16 11 33 1 213 1 243 1278 AWG reference s cenario 148 15 1 1 60 1 74 193 210 235 261 281 285 28 8
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 737 75 4 8 23 9 10 102 2 116 0 13 23 14 72 1 568 1 603 1648 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 737 75 4 8 23 9 10 102 2 534 13 23 14 72 1 568 1 603 1648 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 737 74 2 7 53 6 39 807 847 923 10 04 1 049 1 030 1006 Increas e in form al care 737 71 6 6 05 5 17 450 510 582 648 690 706 72 5 AWG reference s cenario 737 74 8 7 88 8 42 915 100 3 11 23 12 38 1 309 1 316 1327
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5.0 4.9 3.9 3.3 3 .0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Prim ary 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 1 .2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0 .5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tertiary education 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0 .7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 8775 8518 7248 6283 576 7 564 8 56 43 55 26 5 256 4 955 4749 Prim ary 2860 2733 2276 2094 213 0 219 0 21 59 20 21 1 857 1 763 1755 Low s econdary 1681 1644 1336 1123 104 3 107 0 11 05 10 85 1 011 927 88 4 Upper s econdary 2232 2139 1823 1481 127 3 122 9 12 76 12 98 1 256 1 162 1076 Tertiary education 2002 2002 1813 1584 132 1 115 8 11 05 11 21 1 132 1 102 1033 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 2665 9 267 59 271 59 26 372 2 4943 2 3703 23121 22762 2206 2 2088 3 193 99
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0 .3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
of GDP
Portugal Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population sc enario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility r ate 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 74.2 74.4 75.5 76.5 77.4 78.2 79.0 79.6 80.2 80.7 81.2
fe m ale s 81.0 81.2 82.2 83.1 83.9 84.6 85.2 85.6 86.0 86.4 86.7
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 15.6 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9
fe m ale s 19.0 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.1
Ne t m igration (thous and) 41.8 36.4 18.3 16.6 15.6 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9
Ne t m igration as % of population 0.40 0.35 0.17 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15
Population (m illion) 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.1
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.4 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0
Pr im e age population (25-54) as % of total 43.5 43.6 43.8 42.5 40.7 38.9 37.0 35.1 34.0 33.7 33.6
Wor k ing age population (15-64) as % of total 67.4 67.3 66.6 65.5 64.5 63.7 62.2 60.5 58.3 56.0 54.9
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 16.8 17.0 17.7 18.9 20.4 22.2 24.4 26.4 28.6 30.8 32.1
V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 3.7 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.8 7.7 8.6 9.8 10.7
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.1 10.5 10.5
Ma croe conom ic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (gr ow th rate ) 1.4 1.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.0 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.9 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 Labour productivity (gr ow th rate ) 0.5 0.6 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (grow th r ate ) 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (gr ow th r ate ) 0.7 0.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 135 137 152 171 192 213 231 242 251 260 272 GDP pe r w ork e r 13.7 13.8 15.0 16.9 18.9 21.1 23.0 24.3 25.5 26.8 28.7 Re al inte re s t rate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population gr ow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 Labour for ce (thous ands ) 5188 5249 5425 5440 5382 5278 5125 4933 4696 4458 4282 Participation r ate (15-64) 73.4 74.1 76.2 77.2 77.4 77.2 77.1 77.0 77.0 77.4 77.7 young (15-24) 45.6 46.0 45.0 44.3 43.5 43.8 44.6 45.2 45.0 44.4 44.1 pr im e -age (25-54) 86.5 86.9 88.8 90.1 90.9 91.0 90.8 90.7 90.8 91.0 91.0 olde r (55-64) 54.7 55.5 58.3 60.7 62.8 64.5 66.4 66.7 66.0 65.7 66.2 olde s t (65-71) 23.6 23.6 24.9 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.4 27.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 68.9 69.7 71.9 72.9 73.1 72.9 72.8 72.7 72.8 73.1 73.4 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 64.6 65.3 67.6 68.2 67.9 67.5 67.0 66.5 66.1 65.8 66.2 Em ploym e nt gr ow th (15-64) 1.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 Une m ploym e nt r ate (15-64) 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e rs 12.1 12.3 13.7 15.1 16.9 18.4 20.1 21.8 21.8 19.9 18.5 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 24.9 25.2 26.5 28.8 31.6 34.8 39.2 43.6 49.1 55.0 58.5 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 48.3 48.5 50.0 52.7 54.9 57.1 60.7 65.2 71.5 78.4 82.3 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 115.2 113.2 108.6 109.5 112.0 115.5 120.6 127.2 135.7 144.2 148.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-64) 32.6 32.7 33.4 35.5 38.7 42.9 48.2 54.1 60.9 68.1 73.0 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-71) 31.5 31.6 32.2 34.1 37.1 40.9 45.7 51.0 57.1 63.6 68.4
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo rk e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Portugal EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 20.8 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.5 16.5 17.2 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s 4.4 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.7 9.8 10.9 12.2 12.9 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.1 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 20.8 Social security pensions, net 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.8 13.2 14.0 14.9 16.2 17.6 18.7 19.4 Total pension expenditure, net 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.8 13.2 14.0 14.9 16.2 17.6 18.7 19.4 Social security pensions, contributions 10.5 10.6 10.5 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.2 Total pension contributions 10.5 10.6 10.5 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.2 Social security pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.0 : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.0 : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 93 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 3048 3143 3304 3585 4005 4351 4698 4989 5244 5379 5454 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 3048 3143 3304 3585 4005 4351 4698 4989 5244 5379 5454 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.8 7.3 7.9 8.4 9.0 9.7 10.4 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 4.9 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.8 7.3 7.9 8.4 9.0 9.7 10.4 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 26.4 26.5 29.6 33.4 37.8 42.8 47.7 52.0 56.7 61.7 67.3 Social sec. benefit ratio 18.6 18.9 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.2 16.5 16.2 15.9 15.7 15.4 Total pension benefit ratio 18.6 18.9 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.2 16.5 16.2 15.9 15.7 15.4 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 4285 4332 4436 4362 4335 4268 4108 3939 3751 3576 3468 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.7 7.3 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 141 138 134 122 108 98 87 79 72 66 64
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.7 14.2 15.1 16.2 17.6 19.2 20.5 21.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.6 12.4 13.3 14.5 15.8 16.9 17.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.7 14.2 15.1 16.2 17.6 19.2 20.5 21.4 All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.0 : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.6 17.9 18.9 19.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.1 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.7 14.7 15.5 16.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.6 17.9 18.9 19.6 All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.0 : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.7 14.4 15.4 16.6 18.2 19.8 21.2 22.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.8 12.7 13.7 15.0 16.4 17.6 18.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.7 14.4 15.4 16.6 18.2 19.8 21.2 22.1 All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.1 : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.5 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.2 18.7 19.8 20.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.1 11.5 12.2 13.0 14.2 15.4 16.4 17.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.5 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.2 18.7 19.8 20.6 All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.4 0.3 : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.0 14.8 15.8 17.2 18.6 19.8 20.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.1 11.5 12.2 13.0 14.1 15.3 16.3 17.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.0 14.8 15.8 17.2 18.6 19.8 20.5 All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.0 : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 20.8
Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.5 16.5 17.2
Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 20.8 All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 3.8 : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 20.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 8.6 9.0 9.4 10.2 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.5 16.5 17.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.0 20.8 All pensions, assets 4.3 4.4 4.2 : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
Portugal OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.7 6 .7 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7 .3 Cons tant health s cenario 6.7 6 .7 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6 .6 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.7 6 .7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 6 .9 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.7 6 .7 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7 .5 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.7 6 .7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.2 8 .5 AWG reference s cenario 6.7 6 .7 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7 .2
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Unit cos ts - GDP per capita : : : : : : : : : : : Cons tant dis ability s cenario : : : : : : : : : : : Increas e in form al care : : : : : : : : : : : AWG reference s cenario : : : : : : : : : : :
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 295 302 331 363 394 427 47 1 514 5 57 599 626 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 295 302 331 363 394 214 47 1 514 5 57 599 626 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 295 297 303 258 315 321 33 5 350 3 66 382 390 Increas e in form al care 295 302 331 363 394 427 47 1 514 5 57 599 626 AWG reference s cenario 295 299 317 337 355 374 40 3 432 4 62 491 508
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Increas e in form al care 0 15 88 157 221 239 26 4 288 3 12 335 351 AWG reference s cenario 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 295 302 331 363 394 427 47 1 514 5 57 599 626 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 295 302 331 363 394 214 47 1 514 5 57 599 626 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 295 297 303 258 315 321 33 5 350 3 66 382 390 Increas e in form al care 295 287 243 206 173 188 20 7 226 2 45 264 276 AWG reference s cenario 295 299 317 337 355 374 40 3 432 4 62 491 508
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5.1 5 .0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4 .8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 Prim ary 1.8 1 .8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1 .8 of which: Transfers 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 Low s econdary 1.2 1 .2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1 .2 of which: Transfers 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 Upper s econdary 1.1 1 .1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 .0 of which: Transfers 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 Tertiary education 1.0 1 .0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .8 of which: Transfers 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1 908 1882 1815 1812 1805 174 9 1657 15 69 1515 1 488 1462 Prim ary 763 760 788 809 795 739 68 3 654 6 48 647 633 Low s econdary 391 388 366 379 388 379 35 2 327 3 13 311 310 Upper s econdary 360 351 325 315 325 329 31 7 294 2 75 267 266 Tertiary education 393 383 335 308 298 302 30 4 295 2 78 262 252 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 7 064 7086 7123 7050 6958 684 0 6645 64 07 6095 5 761 5514
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.0 0 .9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .8
of GDP
Slov enia Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 72.6 72.8 73.9 75.0 76.1 77.2 77.9 78.4 78.9 79.4 79.8
fe m ale s 80.2 80.3 81.2 82.0 82.8 83.4 83.8 84.2 84.6 84.9 85.1
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 14.3 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7
fe m ale s 18.4 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.0
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 6.1 6.2 5.9 3.8 5.3 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.31 0.31 0.29 0.19 0.26 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Population (m illion) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 14.6 14.3 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.9 12.3 12.1 12.4 12.8
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 45.7 45.8 45.4 44.1 42.1 39.8 37.9 35.7 34.3 33.7 34.0
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 70.4 70.4 70.0 68.7 66.1 63.8 62.1 60.7 59.5 57.6 56.0
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 15.0 15.3 16.5 17.8 20.4 22.8 25.1 27.0 28.4 30.0 31.1
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.9 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.3 7.8 9.1 9.9 10.6
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 3.5 3.4 3.6 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.0 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 3.4 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 26 27 32 38 43 48 53 57 60 63 66 GDP pe r w ork e r 14.7 15.1 18.1 21.1 23.9 26.7 29.6 32.2 34.4 36.6 39.3 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.8 Labour force (thous ands ) 955 967 1010 1007 981 950 916 882 845 810 782 Participation rate (15-64) 68.0 68.7 71.6 72.5 73.6 74.0 73.6 73.0 72.3 72.6 73.4 young (15-24) 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.1 31.2 30.9 30.2 31.1 31.9 32.0 31.4 prim e -age (25-54) 88.5 88.9 90.3 91.4 92.6 92.8 92.5 92.1 91.9 92.1 92.3 olde r (55-64) 25.6 28.8 40.9 43.2 46.2 50.4 52.9 55.5 54.3 53.6 53.0 olde s t (65-71) 6.1 6.1 7.4 13.3 13.1 12.5 12.7 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.3 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 63.7 64.6 67.7 68.5 69.6 69.9 69.5 68.9 68.3 68.6 69.3 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 58.8 59.6 62.4 63.4 62.8 62.4 61.9 61.1 60.6 60.1 60.4 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.6 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 6.3 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 5.8 6.6 10.6 12.7 13.9 15.7 16.7 18.7 19.4 18.6 16.7 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 21.4 21.7 23.6 25.9 30.8 35.8 40.4 44.5 47.7 52.1 55.6 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 42.1 42.0 42.9 45.5 51.3 56.9 61.1 64.7 68.0 73.6 78.5 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 123.1 120.0 111.2 112.3 117.5 124.4 131.8 138.9 146.1 153.1 157.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 32.6 32.8 33.8 35.7 41.7 48.5 55.3 61.7 66.9 72.6 76.9 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 32.4 32.5 33.5 35.1 40.7 47.3 53.8 59.9 65.0 70.3 74.4
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Slov enia EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Occupational pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.7 16.1 17.5 18.7 19.3 Social security pensions, net 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3 Total pension expenditure, net 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.7 16.0 17.4 18.5 19.1 Social security pensions, contributions 9.3 9.6 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 Total pension contributions 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets 1.4 2.1 5.5 9.6 13.9 18.3 22.6 26.5 30.1 33.3 35.9
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 99 99 99 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 524 530 571 609 647 686 722 752 778 789 781 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 524 530 571 609 647 686 722 752 778 789 781 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 315 324 354 386 438 490 537 572 595 619 629 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 39.8 39.0 38.1 36.7 32.2 28.7 25.6 24.0 23.4 21.5 19.5 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.4 5.6 6.3 7.1 8.1 9.2 10.5 11.7 12.9 14.1 15.4 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.4 5.6 6.3 7.2 8.2 9.4 10.7 12.1 13.4 14.8 16.3 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 28.8 29.8 33.8 39.5 46.0 53.0 60.7 68.0 74.8 81.9 89.4 Social sec. benefit ratio 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 Total pension benefit ratio 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.1 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 807 829 873 878 860 833 803 773 741 712 688 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 3.0 3.1 3.7 4.4 5.2 6.1 7.0 7.8 8.6 9.4 10.2 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 154 156 153 144 133 121 111 103 95 90 88
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.1 18.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.1 18.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.1 18.8 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.1 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.4 16.7 17.6 18.1 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.4 16.7 17.6 18.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.3 15.4 16.7 17.6 18.1 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.4 12.1 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.4 17.4 17.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.4 12.1 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.4 17.4 17.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.4 12.1 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.4 17.4 17.8 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.6 13.6 14.7 15.9 16.9 17.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.6 13.6 14.7 15.9 16.9 17.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.6 13.6 14.7 15.9 16.9 17.4 All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3
Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3
Total pension expenditure, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.7 16.1 17.5 18.7 19.3 All pensions, assets 1.4 2.1 5.5 9.6 13.9 18.3 22.6 26.5 30.1 33.3 35.9
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.7 16.1 17.5 18.7 19.3 All pensions, assets 1.4 2.1 5.5 9.6 13.9 18.3 22.6 26.5 30.1 33.3 35.9
: = data not provided
Slovenia OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.8 7 .0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 Cons tant health s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6 .8 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6 .8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.0 7 .3 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.7 7 .1 7.5 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.4 AWG reference s cenario 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.9 7 .2 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1 .3 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1 .3 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1 .2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 Increas e in form al care 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1 .9 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 AWG reference s cenario 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1 .3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 58 59 68 75 84 93 104 116 125 132 13 5 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 58 59 68 75 84 46 104 116 125 132 13 5 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 58 58 62 54 67 70 7 4 8 0 83 85 85 Increas e in form al care 58 59 68 75 84 93 104 116 125 132 13 5 AWG reference s cenario 58 59 65 70 75 81 8 9 9 8 104 108 11 0
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 22 23 26 29 32 36 4 0 4 5 49 52 53 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 22 23 26 29 32 36 4 0 4 5 49 52 53 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 22 22 24 25 26 27 2 9 3 2 34 35 35 Increas e in form al care 22 24 37 49 61 68 7 6 8 5 92 96 99 AWG reference s cenario 22 22 25 27 29 32 3 4 3 9 41 43 44
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 36 37 42 46 51 57 6 4 7 1 76 80 82 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 36 37 42 46 51 27 6 4 7 1 76 80 82 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 36 36 38 32 40 42 4 5 4 8 50 51 50 Increas e in form al care 36 35 31 26 22 25 2 8 3 1 34 35 36 AWG reference s cenario 36 37 40 42 46 50 5 4 6 0 63 65 66
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 5.3 5.2 4.6 4.3 4 .3 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 of which: Transfers 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Prim ary 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 .2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1 .0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1 .1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Tertiary education 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1 .1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 384 37 7 3 45 3 21 312 313 314 306 293 284 28 2 Prim ary 86 84 81 78 82 82 7 8 7 2 69 70 72 Low s econdary 87 84 75 73 71 75 7 6 7 1 66 64 65 Upper s econdary 109 10 6 88 81 79 79 8 4 8 3 77 73 71 Tertiary education 102 10 3 1 00 88 80 76 7 7 8 1 81 78 73 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 1405 1408 1410 1388 133 3 128 4 12 45 12 08 1 170 1 115 1065
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
of GDP
Slov ak Republic Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssum ptions
Fe r tility rate 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Life e xpe ctancy at birth m ale s 69.7 69.9 70.9 72.0 73.1 74.3 75.3 76.1 76.7 77.2 77.7 fe m ale s 77.8 77.9 78.7 79.5 80.3 81.1 81.8 82.3 82.7 83.1 83.4 Life e xpe ctancy at 65 m ale s 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 fe m ale s 16.5 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 Ne t m igration (thous and) -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.3 1.2 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 Ne t m igration as % of population -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 0.02 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Population (m illion) 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 Population age d 0-14 as % of total 17.6 17.0 15.0 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.6 12.6 12.8 Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 44.8 45.2 45.8 45.8 45.6 44.6 42.4 39.3 36.7 34.7 33.3 Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 70.9 71.3 72.7 71.9 69.4 67.1 65.7 64.8 63.2 60.4 57.9 Elde r ly population age d 65+ as % of total 11.5 11.6 12.3 13.7 16.3 18.8 20.8 22.2 24.1 26.9 29.3 V e ry e lde r ly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.9 7.1 7.7 8.0
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w ork ing age pop.15-64 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th rate ) 3.9 3.9 5.3 4.1 3.3 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 Labour input (gr ow th rate ) 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 Labour pr oductivity (grow th rate ) 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 TFP (grow th rate ) 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (contribution to labour productiv ity grow th) 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (gr ow th rate ) 3.9 4.0 5.4 4.3 3.4 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 33 34 44 55 66 77 85 91 93 95 96 GDP pe r w or k e r 9.8 10.2 13.0 16.5 19.9 23.2 26.1 28.3 29.6 30.8 32.1 Re al inte r e s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssumptions
Population grow th (w or k ing age :15-64) 0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.5 Labour force (thous ands ) 2696 2726 2849 2908 2845 2748 2657 2535 2363 2186 2026 Par ticipation rate (15-64) 70.7 71.1 73.3 76.2 77.8 78.2 78.0 76.6 74.7 74.2 73.9 young (15-24) 42.3 42.7 43.3 44.5 42.9 41.5 41.4 41.6 42.2 42.5 42.2 prim e -age (25-54) 89.7 89.9 91.5 92.3 92.9 93.4 93.5 93.4 93.1 92.8 92.8 olde r (55-64) 30.4 31.9 41.3 50.7 53.4 52.9 55.8 56.5 53.5 52.8 52.0 olde s t (65-71) 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 58.7 59.2 62.1 66.7 70.2 72.7 72.6 71.2 69.5 69.0 68.7 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 55.0 55.5 58.0 61.4 63.1 64.7 64.7 63.6 61.2 58.8 58.0 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 16.9 16.7 15.2 12.5 9.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Shar e of olde r w ork e r s 5.8 6.3 9.5 12.7 13.3 12.8 14.6 17.7 18.8 19.1 18.6 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 16.3 16.3 16.9 19.1 23.5 28.1 31.7 34.2 38.1 44.5 50.6 Total de pe nde ncy r atio (2) 41.0 40.2 37.5 39.0 44.1 49.0 52.3 54.2 58.1 65.4 72.9 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 140.2 136.8 121.4 108.6 105.3 104.9 109.9 116.6 127.6 139.9 151.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-64) 27.5 27.3 27.0 28.4 33.1 38.2 43.2 47.6 54.3 63.8 73.0 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy r atio (15-71) 27.4 27.3 26.9 28.3 33.0 38.0 43.0 47.3 54.0 63.4 72.4
LEGENDA :
S h a re o f o ld e r wo rk e rs = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Slov ak Republic EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Private s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Public s ector em ployees , gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.3 8.9 9.7 10.4 11.2 Social security pensions, net 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 Total pension expenditure, net 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.3 8.9 9.7 10.4 11.2 Social security pensions, contributions 6.5 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 Total pension contributions 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 7.0 12.8 18.9 25.1 31.5 38.4 45.7 52.3 58.0
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. 1212 1225 1282 1347 1458 1570 1664 1748 1833 1892 1919 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 1212 1225 1282 1347 1458 1570 1664 1748 1833 1892 1919 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 621 631 684 771 910 1040 1136 1189 1254 1350 1420 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 48.7 48.5 46.6 42.7 37.6 33.7 31.7 31.9 31.6 28.7 26.0 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 15.1 15.7 18.1 21.7 25.7 30.0 34.5 38.6 42.5 46.6 50.9 Social sec. benefit ratio 13.0 13.4 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.4 10.7 9.9 9.1 8.8 Total pension benefit ratio 13.0 13.4 12.7 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.4 12.0 11.6 11.2 11.0 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 2244 2273 2419 2550 2579 2568 2483 2370 2213 2050 1901 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 185 186 189 189 177 164 149 136 121 108 99
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.4 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 7.0 12.8 19.0 25.2 31.7 38.7 46.2 53.0 59.1
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.8 9.5 10.2 10.9 All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 7.0 12.7 18.7 24.6 30.8 37.3 44.2 50.3 55.8
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.2 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.9 10.7 11.6 All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 7.0 12.8 19.2 25.6 32.4 39.6 47.4 54.4 60.6
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.9 9.6 10.4 11.2 All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 7.0 12.8 19.0 25.2 31.6 38.5 45.9 52.5 58.3
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.4 5.6 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.9 9.6 10.5 11.3 All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 7.0 12.7 18.9 25.1 31.5 38.4 45.7 52.3 58.1
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.1 10.8 All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 6.8 12.2 17.8 23.2 28.7 34.4 40.4 45.7 50.4
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 7.2 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.5 9.1 10.0 10.9 11.9 All pensions, assets 0.0 1.2 7.2 13.3 20.2 27.2 34.8 43.1 52.0 60.1 67.3
: = data not provided
Slovak Republic OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 .1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 Cons tant health s cenario 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.7 4 .8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Death-related cos ts s cenario 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4 .9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.1 5 .4 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4 .5 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.6 AWG reference s cenario 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.0 5 .2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 .9 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0 .7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Increas e in form al care 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0 .9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 AWG reference s cenario 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0 .7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 127 12 9 1 38 1 50 170 197 227 253 275 293 30 9 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 127 12 9 1 38 1 50 170 89 227 253 275 293 30 9 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 127 12 7 1 26 1 03 133 143 156 170 179 184 18 5 Increas e in form al care 127 12 9 1 38 1 50 170 197 227 253 275 293 30 9 AWG reference s cenario 127 12 8 1 32 1 38 152 170 191 212 227 238 24 7
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 68 69 74 81 93 108 124 138 151 163 17 1 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 68 69 74 81 93 108 124 138 151 163 17 1 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 68 68 68 69 73 79 8 6 9 4 99 103 10 4 Increas e in form al care 68 72 91 1 11 137 158 181 203 221 236 24 8 AWG reference s cenario 68 68 71 75 83 94 105 116 125 133 13 8
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 59 60 64 69 77 89 103 115 123 130 13 7 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 59 60 64 69 77 39 103 115 123 130 13 7 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 59 59 58 47 60 64 7 0 7 6 80 81 82 Increas e in form al care 59 57 47 39 34 39 4 5 5 1 54 57 60 AWG reference s cenario 59 59 61 63 68 77 8 7 9 6 101 106 10 9
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.4 2 .2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 of which: Transfers 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Prim ary 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0 .5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0 .7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tertiary education 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 .6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 of which: Transfers 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1066 1033 8 84 7 78 728 712 698 671 636 606 59 0 Prim ary 256 24 4 2 12 2 06 204 202 194 180 170 166 16 6 Low s econdary 372 36 0 2 85 2 50 244 243 241 230 214 203 19 9 Upper s econdary 281 27 1 2 39 1 91 170 168 167 165 157 147 14 0 Tertiary education 158 15 7 1 49 1 31 110 99 9 6 9 5 94 90 85 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 3815 3834 3887 3818 365 8 351 6 34 05 33 12 3 163 2 947 2741
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
of GDP
Finland Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 75.3 75.5 76.7 77.8 78.7 79.5 80.2 80.7 81.2 81.6 81.9
fe m ale s 81.9 82.0 82.8 83.5 84.2 84.8 85.3 85.7 86.0 86.3 86.6
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 15.7 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.0
fe m ale s 19.5 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.3
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12
Population (m illion) 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 17.6 17.5 16.5 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.4 15.2 15.1 15.3
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 41.7 41.2 39.4 37.9 36.8 35.8 35.6 35.2 34.9 35.0 34.7
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 66.8 66.7 66.6 63.7 61.3 59.4 58.1 57.6 58.1 58.1 57.8
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 15.6 15.8 16.9 20.1 22.6 24.6 26.1 27.0 26.7 26.8 27.0
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.8 5.4 6.0 8.0 9.3 9.9 10.2 10.3
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 3.1 3.1 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 150 154 175 193 212 229 246 266 288 309 331 GDP pe r w ork e r 21.9 22.5 25.2 27.5 29.9 32.2 34.5 37.5 41.0 44.7 48.4 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 Labour force (thous ands ) 2609 2620 2656 2636 2600 2549 2504 2482 2469 2438 2399 Participation rate (15-64) 74.8 75.1 75.3 77.2 78.5 78.9 79.2 79.7 79.4 79.4 79.6 young (15-24) 51.7 51.9 51.7 53.2 52.6 52.0 51.9 52.1 52.3 52.5 52.5 prim e -age (25-54) 87.8 88.1 89.8 90.9 91.5 92.0 92.2 92.3 92.3 92.2 92.2 olde r (55-64) 55.0 56.0 56.5 60.6 64.3 64.9 64.8 67.4 67.1 66.8 67.5 olde s t (65-71) 6.7 7.0 8.6 11.3 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.0 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 68.5 69.1 70.2 72.2 73.4 73.8 74.1 74.5 74.3 74.3 74.4 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 63.3 63.7 64.5 64.6 65.2 65.7 66.0 66.4 67.1 66.9 66.6 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 8.5 8.0 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 13.9 14.6 16.8 17.2 17.9 17.9 16.5 16.8 17.7 17.6 18.2 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 23.3 23.7 25.4 31.6 37.0 41.3 45.0 46.9 46.0 46.1 46.7 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 49.7 49.9 50.2 56.9 63.3 68.3 72.2 73.7 72.1 72.1 73.1 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 118.7 117.0 113.8 117.3 122.3 128.2 132.5 133.2 131.8 131.7 132.6 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 33.2 33.4 35.0 41.5 47.8 53.5 58.1 60.5 59.7 59.6 60.2 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 32.9 33.1 34.5 40.6 46.6 52.2 56.7 59.0 58.4 58.2 58.7
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Finland EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.7 11.5 12.0 12.2 12.0 12.0 12.1 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 6.8 7.0 8.0 9.1 10.1 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.9 Private s ector em ployees , gros s 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.2 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.7 Social security pensions, net 8.7 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.2 Total pension expenditure, net 8.7 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.2 Social security pensions, contributions 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 Total pension contributions 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2 Social security pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 59.3 63.1 66.0 68.2 69.9 70.8 71.3 72.2 72.9 All pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 59.3 63.1 66.0 68.2 69.9 70.8 71.3 72.2 72.9
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 81 81 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 81 81 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 1282 1309 1413 1530 1640 1721 1771 1773 1748 1727 1714 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 1282 1309 1413 1530 1640 1721 1771 1773 1748 1727 1714 Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 824 834 919 1096 1231 1335 1415 1440 1407 1390 1386 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 35.7 36.3 35.0 28.3 24.9 22.4 20.1 18.8 19.5 19.5 19.1 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 12.5 12.3 13.9 15.2 16.6 18.0 19.5 21.1 22.8 24.6 26.5 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 12.5 12.3 13.9 15.2 16.6 18.0 19.5 21.1 22.8 24.6 26.5 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 62.7 64.1 70.5 78.3 87.0 96.2 105.2 114.5 124.6 135.7 147.7 Social sec. benefit ratio 19.8 19.1 19.6 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.1 18.0 Total pension benefit ratio 19.8 19.1 19.6 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.1 18.0 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 2311 2313 2365 2360 2341 2305 2272 2257 2246 2221 2187 Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.9 6.1 6.7 8.0 9.3 10.7 12.1 13.3 14.4 15.7 17.0 Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 5.9 6.1 6.7 8.0 9.3 10.7 12.1 13.3 14.4 15.7 17.0 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) 180 177 167 154 143 134 128 127 128 129 128
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 14.1 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.9 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 12.1 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 14.1 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.9 All pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 59.3 63.1 66.1 68.3 70.1 70.9 71.3 72.1 72.6
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.7 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.5 11.2 11.7 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.7 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.7 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 All pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 59.3 62.5 64.6 66.1 67.2 67.5 67.6 68.1 68.4
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.1 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.7 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.5 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.1 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.2 All pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 59.4 63.6 67.3 70.3 72.6 74.0 74.9 76.2 77.2
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.8 13.5 13.9 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.4 12.0 12.2 12.0 12.0 12.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.8 13.5 13.9 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 All pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 59.3 62.9 66.0 68.4 70.3 71.3 71.8 72.8 73.5
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.5 All pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 59.0 62.5 65.1 67.1 68.9 69.8 70.2 71.0 71.6
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.6
Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.7 11.4 12.0 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.0
Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.6 All pensions, assets 52.4 53.9 56.6 58.2 59.3 60.1 60.4 60.3 59.9 60.0 60.0
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.7 11.5 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 10.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.8 All pensions, assets 52.4 54.3 62.1 67.8 72.8 77.0 80.5 83.0 84.9 87.2 88.8
: = data not provided
Finland OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 5.6 5.6 5.8 6 .0 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.0 7 .0 7.0 Cons tant health s cenario 5.6 5.6 5.6 5 .7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6 .4 6.4 Death-related cos ts s cenario 5.6 5.6 5.7 5 .9 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.7 6 .7 6.7 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 5.6 5.6 5.8 6 .1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.3 7 .3 7.3 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 5.6 5.6 5.7 6 .0 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.4 7.5 7 .5 7.5 AWG reference s cenario 5.6 5.6 5.8 6 .0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.0 7 .0 7.0
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 1.7 1.7 1.9 2 .0 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.6 3.8 3 .9 3.9 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 .0 2.2 1.9 3.0 3.4 3.6 3 .7 3.7 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1.7 1.7 1.8 1 .9 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3 .0 3.0 Increas e in form al care 1.7 1.8 2.0 2 .3 2.6 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.4 4 .5 4.6 AWG reference s cenario 1.7 1.7 1.9 2 .0 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.4 3 .5 3.5
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 183 187 206 234 2 66 30 3 349 375 381 379 3 74 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 183 187 206 234 2 66 15 3 349 375 381 379 3 74 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 183 184 190 167 2 13 22 8 254 264 261 252 2 42 Increas e in form al care 183 187 206 234 2 66 30 3 349 375 381 379 3 74 AWG reference s cenario 183 185 198 217 2 40 26 5 301 320 321 316 3 08
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 109 111 125 139 1 57 18 0 217 238 246 246 2 42 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 109 111 125 139 1 57 18 0 217 238 246 246 2 42 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 109 110 116 122 1 29 14 1 165 176 176 172 1 65 Increas e in form al care 109 115 146 180 2 18 24 9 291 315 321 321 3 16 AWG reference s cenario 109 111 120 130 1 43 16 0 191 207 211 209 2 04
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 74 7 5 81 96 1 09 12 2 132 136 135 133 1 31 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 74 7 5 81 96 1 09 51 132 136 135 133 1 31 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 74 7 4 74 63 84 87 89 8 9 85 81 77 Increas e in form al care 74 7 2 60 54 48 54 58 6 0 59 59 58 AWG reference s cenario 74 7 5 78 87 96 10 5 110 113 110 107 1 04
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 6.0 6.0 5.6 5 .4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5 .3 5.3 of which: Transfers 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 .5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .4 0.4 Prim ary 1.4 1.3 1.2 1 .2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1 .2 1.2 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1 .0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.4 1.5 1.4 1 .4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1 .3 1.3 of which: Transfers 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.1 Tertiary education 2.1 2.1 1.9 1 .9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1 .8 1.8 of which: Transfers 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1 169 11 85 112 1 1079 1056 1044 1 040 10 29 100 6 983 9 67 Prim ary 388 382 347 344 3 48 35 2 350 342 329 321 3 19 Low s econdary 198 201 195 178 1 77 17 9 181 180 175 168 1 65 Upper s econdary 300 309 309 291 2 78 27 3 274 273 269 262 2 56 Tertiary education 283 293 269 266 2 53 24 0 236 234 233 232 2 28 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 3 486 34 91 352 6 3412 3311 3231 3 162 31 15 310 9 3069 3015
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.5 1.4 1.2 1 .1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 .1 1.1
of GDP
Sweden Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 78.1 78.2 79.0 79.7 80.4 80.9 81.4 81.8 82.1 82.4 82.6
fe m ale s 82.4 82.5 83.2 83.8 84.4 84.9 85.4 85.7 86.1 86.4 86.6
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.7 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.0
fe m ale s 19.8 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.0
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 28.2 27.2 24.1 23.9 22.7 22.1 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.3
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.31 0.30 0.26 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21
Population (m illion) 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 17.8 17.6 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.6 16.2 16.1 16.3
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 40.2 39.9 38.9 38.7 38.7 37.1 36.1 36.2 36.4 36.2 35.5
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 65.0 65.2 65.3 63.1 61.7 60.8 60.0 59.4 59.3 59.4 59.4
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 17.2 17.2 18.3 20.1 21.2 22.1 23.0 24.0 24.5 24.4 24.3
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.3 6.3 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.1
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.3 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.1
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 278 286 329 378 429 481 526 572 626 690 756 GDP pe r w ork e r 22.6 23.1 26.1 29.3 32.6 35.8 38.7 41.7 45.4 49.7 54.0 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 Labour force (thous ands ) 4522 4563 4698 4745 4769 4794 4790 4783 4812 4873 4905 Participation rate (15-64) 77.5 77.7 78.3 80.3 80.8 80.8 80.7 80.7 80.9 81.1 81.1 young (15-24) 48.4 48.7 50.7 54.2 50.9 50.6 51.2 51.0 51.2 51.8 51.7 prim e -age (25-54) 88.0 88.2 89.4 90.1 90.6 91.0 91.2 91.3 91.3 91.2 91.2 olde r (55-64) 71.8 72.5 73.4 75.3 76.3 77.5 77.3 77.6 78.0 79.0 79.0 olde s t (65-71) 10.9 11.1 14.3 13.5 13.4 13.7 14.3 13.6 13.9 13.6 14.0 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 73.4 73.8 74.9 76.8 77.3 77.4 77.2 77.2 77.4 77.6 77.6 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 68.1 68.5 68.8 69.1 70.0 70.3 69.9 69.3 69.8 70.4 70.7 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 5.3 5.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 18.3 18.8 18.7 18.0 18.6 19.9 20.0 18.8 18.0 19.1 20.9 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 26.4 26.4 28.0 31.9 34.4 36.4 38.4 40.5 41.4 41.1 40.9 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 53.8 53.4 53.2 58.6 62.1 64.6 66.7 68.4 68.7 68.3 68.4 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 109.6 107.7 104.4 106.4 109.7 112.7 115.9 118.1 118.1 116.8 116.9 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 34.6 34.4 35.2 39.2 42.3 44.8 47.4 50.0 51.1 50.8 50.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 34.2 33.9 34.4 38.2 41.3 43.9 46.2 48.8 49.9 49.7 49.4
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
Sweden EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.4 11.2 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.0 9.9 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.1 8.0 Private s ector em ployees , gros s 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 Occupational pensions, gross 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 Private mandatory pensions, gross 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.1 13.9 Social security pensions, net 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.3 8.2 Total pension expenditure, net 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.6 10.3 10.1 Social security pensions, contributions 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 Total pension contributions 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 Social security pensions, assets 32.1 33.7 40.0 43.1 45.6 47.7 49.6 49.6 47.7 45.5 44.4 All pensions, assets 38.6 41.5 53.5 60.7 66.0 69.7 72.3 71.6 68.1 63.9 60.9
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 Social security pensions, num ber of pensioners , 1000 pers. 2126 2132 2275 2507 2715 2902 3079 3201 3297 3303 3327 All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. 2126 2132 2275 2507 2715 2902 3079 3201 3297 3303 3327 Num ber of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. 1629 1630 1802 2053 2263 2451 2633 2756 2848 2845 2868 Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners 23.4 23.5 20.8 18.1 16.6 15.6 14.5 13.9 13.6 13.9 13.8 Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices 13.9 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.4 17.7 18.9 20.4 22.0 23.8 25.6 Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices 16.9 17.0 18.0 19.3 20.4 22.0 23.7 25.6 27.5 29.4 31.5 Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 65.4 66.7 73.2 83.2 94.0 104.8 114.9 125.0 136.1 148.0 161.1 Social sec. benefit ratio 21.3 20.9 20.0 18.7 17.5 16.9 16.5 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.9 Total pension benefit ratio 25.9 25.4 24.6 23.1 21.7 21.0 20.6 20.5 20.2 19.9 19.5 Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 : : : : : : : : : : : Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices 4.7 4.8 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.6 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.3 11.2 Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) : : : : : : : : : : :
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.3 10.2 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.9 12.6 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.6 14.8 14.4 14.2 All pensions, assets 38.6 41.5 53.2 60.2 65.3 68.7 71.1 70.0 66.1 61.3 57.9
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.4 11.2 11.0 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.8 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.0 14.1 13.7 13.5 All pensions, assets 38.6 41.5 53.4 60.2 65.0 68.1 70.3 69.3 65.9 61.8 59.3
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.8 11.6 11.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.2 10.1 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.9 13.1 13.5 14.2 14.7 14.9 14.5 14.3 All pensions, assets 38.6 41.5 53.5 61.1 67.2 71.6 74.9 74.6 71.3 66.9 63.7
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.4 14.0 13.8 All pensions, assets 38.6 41.5 53.1 60.3 65.8 69.4 72.1 71.5 68.1 64.1 61.4
Higher older workers empl. rate (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Old-age and early pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.1 11.0
Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.6
Total pension expenditure, gross 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.9 14.0 13.5 13.2 All pensions, assets 38.6 41.2 51.5 56.6 59.8 61.4 62.3 60.3 56.2 52.0 49.4
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.2 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 7.8 7.6 7.7 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.3 10.3 Total pension expenditure, gross 12.9 12.6 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.1 14.8 14.6 All pensions, assets 38.7 41.8 55.5 65.1 73.0 79.2 84.5 86.0 84.1 80.6 78.2
: = data not provided
Sweden OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0 7 .2 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 Cons tant health s cenario 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6 .8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Death-related cos ts s cenario 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 7 .0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.1 7 .4 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.1 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.9 7 .2 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 AWG reference s cenario 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0 7 .2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3 .9 4.5 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.3 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3 .8 3.3 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3 .5 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 Increas e in form al care 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 .2 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.8 AWG reference s cenario 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3 .7 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 322 32 4 3 31 3 48 379 432 487 514 531 549 56 9 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 322 32 4 3 31 3 48 379 241 487 514 531 549 56 9 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 322 32 0 3 08 2 59 310 337 366 372 370 372 37 8 Increas e in form al care 322 32 4 3 31 3 48 379 432 487 514 531 549 56 9 AWG reference s cenario 322 32 2 3 20 3 26 345 384 427 443 450 460 47 4
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 243 24 4 2 48 2 54 275 321 370 392 404 421 44 2 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 243 24 4 2 48 2 54 275 321 370 392 404 421 44 2 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 243 24 2 2 32 2 26 231 258 288 294 293 297 30 6 Increas e in form al care 243 24 8 2 70 2 95 334 383 435 460 475 492 51 3 AWG reference s cenario 243 24 3 2 40 2 40 253 289 329 343 349 359 37 4
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 79 79 84 94 104 111 116 122 126 128 12 7 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 79 79 84 94 104 47 116 122 126 128 12 7 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 79 78 76 62 79 79 7 9 7 8 77 75 73 Increas e in form al care 79 75 61 53 46 49 5 1 5 4 56 56 56 AWG reference s cenario 79 78 80 86 92 95 9 8 100 102 102 10 0
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.5 6 .4 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 of which: Transfers 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0 .9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Prim ary 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1 .8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Low s econdary 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 1 .5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 of which: Transfers 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Tertiary education 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2 .1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 of which: Transfers 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0 .6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 2100 2111 1991 1943 196 1 198 4 20 25 20 48 2 033 2 009 2005 Prim ary 745 71 3 6 29 6 87 704 717 737 730 706 701 71 5 Low s econdary 405 42 0 3 63 3 28 361 366 375 385 380 367 36 5 Upper s econdary 540 56 4 5 97 5 15 514 532 538 552 559 549 53 6 Tertiary education 411 41 5 4 02 4 13 381 367 375 381 388 392 38 7 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 5835 5874 5998 5909 590 2 592 9 59 36 59 26 5 951 6 006 6046
Unemployment benefit spending as % 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0 .9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
of GDP
United Kingdom Main demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
(BA SELINE SCENA RIO) Budgetary Projection: A WG variant population scenario 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
De mogra phic a ssumptions
Fe rtility rate 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Life e xpe ctancy at bir th
m ale s 76.4 76.6 77.6 78.5 79.4 80.1 80.7 81.3 81.7 82.1 82.4
fe m ale s 80.9 81.1 82.1 83.0 83.8 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.0 86.3 86.7
Life e xpe ctancy at 65
m ale s 16.1 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4
fe m ale s 19.0 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.3
Ne t m igr ation (thous and) 139.5 134.5 116.1 107.7 102.8 100.3 99.2 98.8 98.7 98.5 98.5
Ne t m igr ation as % of population 0.23 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Population (m illion) 59.7 59.9 60.9 61.9 62.9 63.8 64.4 64.6 64.7 64.5 64.2
Population age d 0-14 as % of total 18.3 18.0 17.0 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.3 14.9 14.7 14.7
Prim e age population (25-54) as % of total 41.5 41.4 41.2 40.9 39.8 38.2 37.2 37.1 36.6 36.0 35.5
Work ing age population (15-64) as % of total 65.7 65.9 66.3 65.2 64.2 63.0 61.3 59.9 59.2 59.2 58.8
Elde rly population age d 65+ as % of total 16.0 16.1 16.6 18.3 19.5 20.9 22.9 24.8 25.8 26.0 26.5
V e ry e lde rly population age d 80 and ove r as % of total 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.8 7.3 8.1 9.2 10.1
Elde rly population age d 55+ as % of w or k ing age pop.15-64 41.5 41.6 42.1 44.3 47.8 51.4 54.4 56.1 57.3 58.1 59.0
Ma croe conomic a ssumptions
Re al GDP (grow th r ate ) 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 Labour input (grow th r ate ) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Labour pr oductivity (gr ow th rate ) 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 TFP (gr ow th rate ) 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Capital de e pe ning (c ontribution to labour productivity grow th) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 GDP pe r capita (grow th r ate ) 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 GDP in 2004 price s (in billions of e uro) 1706 1751 2019 2309 2587 2843 3054 3277 3547 3843 4123 GDP pe r w ork e r 21.0 21.5 24.4 27.4 30.2 32.8 34.9 37.3 40.3 43.8 47.2 Re al inte re s t r ate 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
La bour force a ssum ptions
Population grow th (w ork ing age :15-64) 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 Labour force (thous ands ) 29599 29827 30859 31402 31476 31280 30759 30320 30155 30011 29577 Participation rate (15-64) 75.5 75.6 76.4 77.7 77.9 77.8 77.9 78.3 78.7 78.5 78.3 young (15-24) 63.8 63.9 65.2 65.7 65.2 64.9 64.8 64.8 65.0 65.2 65.2 prim e -age (25-54) 84.0 84.3 85.2 85.7 86.2 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.0 87.0 86.9 olde r (55-64) 57.5 57.6 58.5 62.8 63.6 63.9 63.5 63.8 65.6 65.6 65.2 olde s t (65-71) 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.3 16.1 16.3 16.6 Em ploym e nt rate (15-64) 71.8 72.0 72.9 74.2 74.3 74.2 74.3 74.7 75.1 74.9 74.7 Em ploym e nt rate (15-71) 67.0 67.2 67.8 68.0 68.2 67.9 67.1 66.9 67.6 68.2 67.7 Em ploym e nt grow th (15-64) 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Une m ploym e nt rate (15-64) 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
De pe nde ncy ra tios:
Share of olde r w or k e rs 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.8 16.5 18.0 17.6 16.2 16.4 17.7 18.2 Old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (1) 24.3 24.4 25.1 28.1 30.3 33.1 37.3 41.3 43.6 44.0 45.0 Total de pe nde ncy ratio (2) 52.1 51.7 50.8 53.3 55.7 58.7 63.0 66.9 68.8 68.9 70.0 Total e conom ic de pe nde ncy ratio 111.9 110.9 106.9 106.7 109.6 113.7 119.3 123.4 124.8 125.4 127.5 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-64) 31.9 31.9 32.3 35.3 38.3 42.0 47.1 52.0 55.0 56.0 57.2 Econom ic old-age de pe nde ncy ratio (15-71) 31.3 31.2 31.7 34.4 37.4 40.9 45.7 50.4 53.4 54.4 55.6
LEGENDA :
S h a r e o f o ld e r wo r k e r s = P o p u la t io n a g e d 5 5 t o 6 4 a s % o f p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 O ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 1) = P o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 a n d o v e r a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l d e p e n d e n c y r a t io ( 2 ) = P o p u la t io n u n d e r 15 a n d o v e r 6 4 a s a p e rc e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u la t io n a g e d 15 - 6 4 T o t a l e c o n o m ic d e p e n d e n c y r a t io = T o t a l p o p u la t io n le s s e m p lo ye d a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 6 4 ) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 6 4 ) E c o n o m ic o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra t io ( 15 - 7 1) = In a c t iv e p o p u la t io n a g e d 6 5 + a s % o f e m p lo ye d p o p u la t io n ( 15 - 7 1)
United Kingdom EPC-AW G Pension expenditure projections
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Baseline scenario; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 Old-age and early pens ions , gros s 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 Of which: earnings -related pens ions , gros s 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.5 Private s ector em ployees , gros s 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 Public s ector em ployees , gros s 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Other pens ions (dis ability, s urvivors ), gros s : : : : : : : : : : : Occupational pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Private mandatory pensions, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, net : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, contributions 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Total pension contributions : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Additional indicators
Social security pensions, net / Social sec. pensions, gross,% : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension expenditure, net / Total pension exp., gross, % : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, number of pensioners , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, pensioners , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Number of pensioners aged 65+ , 1000 pers. : : : : : : : : : : : Share of pensioners below age 65 as % of all pensioners : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross social sec. pension, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Average gross total pensions, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Output / W orker, 1000€ in 2004 prices 59.3 60.5 68.6 77.1 86.2 95.3 104.1 113.3 123.3 134.2 146.1 Social sec. benefit ratio : : : : : : : : : : : Total pension benefit ratio : : : : : : : : : : : Social security pensions, num of contributors, in 1000 : : : : : : : : : : : Average social sec. pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Average total pension contribution, 1000€ in 2004 prices : : : : : : : : : : : Support ratio (contributors /100 pensioners, social sec. pens.) : : : : : : : : : : :
High life expectancy; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower labour productivity; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.9 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.9 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher employment rate (1 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets
Higher older workers empl. rate : : : : : : : : : : : (5 p.p.); as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Lower interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
Higher interest rate; as % of GDP
Social security pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 Old-age and early pensions, gross 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 Total pension expenditure, gross : : : : : : : : : : : All pensions, assets : : : : : : : : : : :
: = data not provided
United Kingdom OTHER AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURES as % of GDP
2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Health care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 7 .0 7.0 7 .2 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9 .1 9.3 Cons tant health s cenario 7 .0 7.0 7 .0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.7 7 .9 7.9 Death-related cos ts s cenario 7 .0 7.0 7 .1 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.5 8 .7 8.8 Incom e elas ticity of dem and 7 .0 7.0 7 .3 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.3 9 .6 9.7 Unit cos ts - GDP per worker 7 .0 7.0 7 .0 7.3 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.5 9 .8 10 .0 AWG reference s cenario 7 .0 7.0 7 .2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.7 8 .8 8.9
Long-term care spending as % of GDP
Pure ageing s cenario 1 .0 1.0 1 .0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1 .9 2.0 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 1 .0 1.0 1 .0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1 .7 1.9 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 1 .0 1.0 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1 .4 1.5 Increas e in form al care 1 .0 1.1 1 .4 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3 .4 3.6 AWG reference s cenario 1 .0 1.0 1 .0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1 .6 1.8
Numbe r of de pe nde nt pe ople (in thous ands )
Pure ageing s cenario 289 9 2 923 307 5 3 380 3686 40 47 4517 49 17 5 236 543 6 5 564 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 289 9 2 923 307 5 3 380 3686 19 01 4517 49 17 5 236 543 6 5 564 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 289 9 2 880 280 9 2 329 2895 29 74 3156 32 62 3 343 339 9 3 408 Increas e in form al care 289 9 2 923 307 5 3 380 3686 40 47 4517 49 17 5 236 543 6 5 564
AWG reference s cenario 289 9 2 902 294 2 3 117 3291 35 10 3837 40 90 4 289 441 7 4 486
of which re ce iving formal care
Pure ageing s cenario 718 72 6 7 63 820 8 97 997 1147 12 47 1 354 147 2 1 553 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 718 72 6 7 63 820 8 97 997 1147 12 47 1 354 147 2 1 553 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 718 71 7 7 11 720 7 44 785 86 8 906 95 2 101 5 1 053 Increas e in form al care 718 83 5 137 6 1 924 2459 27 05 3034 33 02 3 528 369 1 3 799 AWG reference s cenario 718 72 1 7 37 770 8 20 891 1008 10 76 1 153 124 4 1 303
of which re ce iving informal or no care
Pure ageing s cenario 218 1 2 198 231 2 2 559 2790 30 50 3371 36 71 3 882 396 3 4 011 Unit cos ts - GDP per capita 218 1 2 198 231 2 2 559 2790 13 29 3371 36 71 3 882 396 3 4 011 Cons tant dis ability s cenario 218 1 2 163 209 7 1 709 2151 21 89 2287 23 56 2 391 238 4 2 355 Increas e in form al care 218 1 2 088 170 0 1 456 1228 13 42 1484 16 16 1 709 174 4 1 765 AWG reference s cenario 218 1 2 180 220 5 2 347 2471 26 20 2829 30 14 3 136 317 3 3 183
Education spending as % of GDP
Total 4 .6 4.5 4 .2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3 .9 4.0 of which: Transfers 0 .3 0.3 0 .3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 Prim ary 1 .1 1.1 1 .0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 .0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0 .0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Low s econdary 0 .8 0.8 0 .7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 .7 0.7
of which: Transfers 0 .0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Upper s econdary 1 .5 1.5 1 .4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1 .3 1.3 of which: Transfers 0 .0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 Tertiary education 1 .1 1.1 1 .1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 .0 1.0 of which: Transfers 0 .3 0.3 0 .3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0.2 Number of s tudents (in thous ands )
Total 1 6352 162 50 15 647 1529 2 15 151 15153 151 71 1 4970 145 77 1 4244 1415 5 Prim ary 442 8 4 367 411 8 4 128 4131 41 70 4136 40 13 3 891 383 2 3 818 Low s econdary 234 0 2 307 216 2 2 024 2037 20 45 2065 20 43 1 977 191 8 1 893 Upper s econdary 716 6 7 159 696 4 6 784 6702 66 87 6734 66 94 6 516 633 9 6 311 Tertiary education 241 8 2 417 240 4 2 357 2281 22 51 2235 22 20 2 192 215 5 2 132 Memo
Population aged 15-64 (in thous ands ) 3 9218 394 61 40 413 4038 9 40 418 40201 394 88 3 8716 383 07 3 8226 3776 3
Unemployment benefit spending as % 0 .4 0.4 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 .3 0.3
of GDP